A Look At Betting Every NFL Game In Week 2

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[h=1]How to bet every Week 2 pro football game[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INISDER

LAS VEGAS -- First off, I'd like to thank everyone who inquired about my health, wealth and well-being last Sunday.
As the pro football results kept coming in and favorites were 9-3 against the spread during the day games, it was clear that it was a big day for chalk bettors and not a very good day for underdog bettors like yours truly.
It actually wasn't too bad for me, as I went 2-2-1 in the Westgate SuperContest and was 3-2 with my survivor plays in the Last Man Standing contest at Station Casinos (after going 4-1 in the college contest on Saturday). So, while I was certainly bummed to see my seemingly solid plays on Detroit and Baltimore fall apart after holding early leads, I was mostly able to avoid the rest of the minefield.
I was 2-2 ATS on sides with my official best bets in this column (I had two close calls on Chicago and San Francisco, but I'm not counting them -- they split anyway at 1-1), though I did go only 1-3 on over/unders.
So now we move on to Week 2, where we hope to find value with lines that get overbet based on Week 1 results. As usual, we'll look at how the public is viewing the game, then what the wiseguys are thinking, and I'll give my take on each game.
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Last week: 2-2 ATS on sides, 1-3 on over/unders
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday night. The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN PickCenter, also as of Thursday night.

[h=2]Matchup: Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers[/h]Spread: Panthers -3
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Texans

Public perception: ESPN Insider's PickCenter has more of the public on Houston, but the listed line there is 3.5. It would be more split -- and probably more on Carolina -- at 3.


Wiseguys' view: Those numbers pretty much show that the books have it priced right, and they're happy to have bettors on both sides laying extra vig (mostly -120 instead of the standard -110). <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sharps haven't really shown their true hand yet, so they're split and just grabbing the best price on the side they like.</offer>
Tuley's take: The Texans were run over early by the Chiefs and didn't recover, well, until Ryan Mallett rallied them but came up short. With Mallett named the starter, Houston should have more success this week, and the defense should have an easier time containing Carolina, which did just enough in beating Jacksonville.
The pick: Texans +3* (certainly shopping for +3.5* myself)

[h=2]Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints[/h]Spread: Saints -9.5
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Saints

Public perception: Most of the public is on the Saints (and that's with a line of -10 at PickCenter), though it's just as much a bet against Tampa Bay as the Bucs were awful on both sides of the ball, with most of the focus on Jameis Winston's disastrous debut.
Wiseguys' view: There are some sharps on the Saints laying under double digits, but most wiseguys love double-digit NFL underdogs, so there are plenty of them grabbing the Bucs +10 where it's available. The sharps also like that the Saints have lost some of their invincibility at home, as they dropped their last five home games against the spread last year.
Tuley's take: I'm usually all over double-digit NFL dogs, but it's hard to pull the trigger on the Bucs until they show a little something (their 42-14 loss to Tennessee wasn't even as close as the score indicates as the two Tampa TDs were in garbage time). With the posted line here at 9.5, I definitely have to pass, but will probably look elsewhere on the slate anyway.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Bucs, only because that's a good time to be contrarian)

[h=2]Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Spread: Steelers -6
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Steelers

Public perception: San Francisco surprised a lot of people on Monday night, but Pittsburgh is still more of a public team at this time and the public is looking for the Steelers to bounce back from their loss to New England.
Wiseguys' view: The 49ers had some early support from sharps, but now that the line has come down, they're likely to land on Pittsburgh. The sharps also like that the Steelers have extra rest while the 49ers are traveling on a short week. Pittsburgh will be a popular teaser plays for sharps and squares alike.
Tuley's take: Even I was surprised by how easily the 49ers beat the Vikings Monday night, as I've been saying the Vikings are overrated and the 49ers wouldn't be as bad as a lot of people thought; but I still believe they're overmatched here. San Francisco's offense won't be able to keep up with Pittsburgh, which will have much more success against the 49ers' D than Minnesota did.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Steelers)

[h=2]Matchup: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Vikings -2.5
Public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Lions


Public perception: More than 70 percent are on the Lions, but that's with the PickCenter line of Minnesota -3. The public is acting sharper in knowing that half a point is very important, especially around the key numbers.


Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game, with those liking Minnesota happy to lay -2.5 while those on Detroit gladly taking +3. It'll likely keep bouncing back and forth over the weekend.
Tuley's take: I'm sticking to my preseason predictions that the Vikings would underachieve and the Lions would be a contender. They certainly looked great jumping out to 21-3 lead at San Diego, and I expect them to do the same at Minnesota (without the collapse). Detroit's defense can contain the Vikings' offense, and I like the Lions here to win outright. The problem is I have Detroit +3 (even) from back on Sunday, and can't recommend them at current price.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Lions)

[h=2]Matchup: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills[/h]Spread: Patriots -1
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Patriots

Public perception: With Tom Brady playing, the Patriots are going to be the public's pick almost every time out. A lot of people are jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon, but it can't match New England's support.
Wiseguys' view: This is a game with a big split between the sharps and squares. The sharps loved Buffalo over Indy last week and they're on them again here, and behind the move we've seen toward pick 'em.
Tuley's take: For those who say, "Look at what the Bills did to the Colts," I reply, "Look at what the Patriots did to the Colts last January!" Even excluding the Deflategate controversy in the first half, New England outscored Indianapolis 28-0 in the second half. I'm not buying that the Bills are ready to challenge the Pats in the AFC East, and I don't believe this should be anywhere near a pick 'em game even in Buffalo.
The pick: Patriots -1* (yes, I'm going against my dog-or-pass philosophy and sure hope I don't regret it)

[h=2]Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears[/h]Spread: Cardinals -1.5
Public consensus pick: 81 percent picked Cardinals

Public perception: Bettors did very well with Arizona last week and they're on the Cards again, as the defense looked as good as last year and the offense was back to looking formidable with Carson Palmer healthy (for now).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split here, with many laying the short price with Arizona; however, the Bears likely will be a popular teaser as a home underdog teased over a touchdown.
Tuley's take: The Bears actually outgained the Packers in Week 1, but they're going to have a harder time against the Cardinals' D, especially running the ball. Matt Forte had 144 yards against Green Bay while Arizona held the whole New Orleans offense to 54 yards rushing. I can't back the short home dog here.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cardinals)

[h=2]Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns[/h]Spread: Titans -1
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Titans

Public perception: All aboard the Marcus Mariota bandwagon! The public is all over the Titans after seeing Mariota's debut. Not many people are running to the windows to back Cleveland, especially after the Browns were routed in the opener.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps jumped on Tennessee as an underdog or pick 'em both here and offshore, but it's slowed a little now with the Titans favored.
Tuley's take: I'm not ready to anoint Mariota as rookie of the year or anything else yet (his debut was against Tampa Bay, after all), but I'm not willing to back Cleveland, either. However, I will look to the under as this should be lower-scoring than either of these teams' first games, as long as it's not a pick-six fest.

The pick: Under 41.5* (pool play: Titans, unless you want to go full-blown contrarian with Browns, which I will probably do in some of my pools with multiple entries)


[h=2]Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants[/h]Spread: Giants -2.5
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: This has been hovering around 50-50 at Pick Center as well as other bet-tracking sites I follow. The public would normally be on the New York Football Giants at home, but their collapse in Dallas and the way the Falcons beat the Eagles has people taking notice.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also haven't expressed an opinion here, though Atlanta should be a popular underdog teaser play at around +8.5.
Tuley's take: We knew the Falcons would have an explosive offense as long as their receivers stay healthy, but Atlanta also showed a stronger running game than expected with the tandem of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, plus the defense was impressive in holding up against the Eagles' potent attack. The defense should have an easier time against the Giants' offense and set up the outright upset as the Falcons should put up plenty of points.
The pick: Falcons*

[h=2]Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Spread: Bengals -3
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Bengals

Public perception: Even though it was against the Raiders, the Bengals were dominant on both sides of the ball in their opener, so it's not surprising the public is siding with them. The Bengals also have been good to bettors at home, going 12-3-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons (though they did lose to San Diego in 2013-14 playoffs).
Wiseguys' view: Sharps also are split on this game. Both teams are worthy of backing, so those liking Cincinnati are laying the 3 while those on San Diego are searching for the +3.5s.
Tuley's take: I'm split on this matchup too. The Chargers opened things up and scored 30 unanswered points against a good Detroit defense. And the Bengals showed a balanced attack as expected. So, I think the best play is on the over as this total isn't as high as I think it should be considering the matchup.
The pick: Over 45.5* (pool play: Bengals)

[h=2]Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins[/h]Spread: Rams -3.5
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Rams

Public perception: After watching St. Louis knock off Seattle, it's not surprising that the public is all over the Rams, especially against a Washington team that hasn't been getting much public support.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys scooped up all the St. Louis -3 that was available when books opened lines on this game. At 3.5, it's more split.
Tuley's take: I'm hearing other Vegas handicappers on Washington +3.5, but I'm not sure I'm willing to buy in on the Redskins, even though they played better than expected against Miami. Instead, I'm looking at the under. It's kind of strange to expect a team that scored 34 points on the Seahawks could be slowed by Washington's defense, but I've seen plenty of times when the Rams pull an upset and then play down to the level of their competition.
The pick: Under 41.5* (pool play: Washington, but don't like it enough to make it an official play)

[h=2]Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders[/h]Spread: Ravens -6.5
Public consensus pick: 88 percent picked Ravens

Public perception: Derek Carr was upgraded to probable Wednesday, but that hasn't kept the public from being overwhelmingly on Baltimore, which is more of a public team than Oakland (at least in recent years). This will also be a big teaser play for the public.
Wiseguys' view: There is a little wiseguy support keeping this from going to 7, as Las Vegas locals know the advance line on this game at the Westgate last week was only Baltimore -4.
Tuley's take: I would be tempted on Oakland plus a touchdown. Assuming Carr is good to go, I expect more from the Raiders' offense than it showed against the Bengals. The Ravens also have a rough schedule going to Denver last week and now Oakland this week.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders, but I would need at least +7 to bet it)

[h=2]Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]Spread: Dolphins -6
Public consensus pick: 89 percent picked Dolphins

Public perception: Miami came through for bettors last week, so it's no surprise that they're looking to reinvest. And it's never a surprise when the public is loading up against Jacksonville. The Dolphins will be another popular teaser play that the books will be cheering against.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps will be on the Jaguars here as the home underdog. The wiseguys are much more willing to flip back and forth on a team depending on the betting value offered.
Tuley's take: I was able to resist taking the Jaguars as a home 'dog last week against the Panthers, but I'm jumping in here because I believe the Dolphins are getting too much respect in the marketplace. Sure, they covered against Washington, but they trailed 10-0 and were outgained by nearly 100 yards by the Redskins, needing a punt return to get the TD to cover the spread. This line shouldn't be any more than a field goal.
The pick: Jaguars*

[h=2]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Spread: Eagles -5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Cowboys

Public perception: Here's another split decision for the public, at least as far as the spread is concerned. Philadelphia started slow below rallying (and coming up short at Atlanta), while Dallas also rallied and pulled out the miracle win against New York (but didn't cover).
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game was Philadelphia -4, but was adjusted to -5 after the prime-time games, though part of that was also becauseDez Bryant got hurt. The sharps also seem split at the current number.
Tuley's take: In a key NFC East battle for early-season control of the division, I'm tempted to take the Cowboys plus the points. However, the Bryant injury does cause concern and that leads me more to a play on the under as his absence does make the Dallas attack less explosive. I don't expect either team to be completely shut down, but this is the highest total on the Week 2 board and seems about a touchdown too high.
The pick: Under 55* (pool play: Cowboys)

[h=2]Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers[/h]Spread: Packers -3.5
Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Packers

Public perception: This was much more lopsided in the Packers' favor when Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite. The Packers are always a public team, but it's helped by the fact the Seahawks lost last week.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps also jumped all over Green Bay -3, but plenty of sharps are loving the Seahawks +3.5. Russell Wilson has been money as an underdog, going 10-1 ATS so far in his short NFL career.
Tuley's take: The Seahawks were my top-rated team heading into the season (and the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings that we contribute to), but I had no problem fading them as a road favorite last week. But I also have no problem jumping back on them here, as I certainly understand Green Bay being favored because of home-field advantage, but not by more than a field goal.
The pick: Seahawks +3.5*

[h=2]Matchup: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (Monday night, ESPN)[/h]Spread: Colts -7
Public consensus pick: N/A

Public perception: The stat you're most likely to hear heading into Monday night's game is that Andrew Luck is 14-1 after a loss in his career. He's also 14-1 ATS for backers, so it's no surprise that the public is all over the Colts.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have been taking the Jets +7 as the Colts' performance against Buffalo has people thinking the Colts might have been overrated coming into the season.
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</article>Tuley's take: The jury is still out on the Jets as we can't put too much weight on their rout of the Browns, but they have a chance here as their defense is similar to Buffalo's (and not just because Rex Ryan is now there) and they can run the ball too. However, this line was 9.5 last week, so I'm not thrilled taking fewer points now. I would need the public to bet the line over a touchdown to get involved.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets, just in case we need to make up a game at the end of the weekend)

[h=2]My plays[/h]Last week, I had some people asking for a simpler list of my plays (I hope it wasn't to fade them!), so here you go:
Sides (2-2)
Texans +3
Patriots -1
Falcons +2.5
Jaguars +6
Seahawks +3.5

Over/unders (1-3)

Titans-Browns under 41.5
Chargers-Bengals over 45.5
Rams-Redskins under 41.5
Cowboys-Eagles under 55.5



 

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