Evaluating Week 3 Early NFL Line Moves

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Week 3 pro football early line moves

Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER


LAS VEGAS -- If most people thought they had a good handle on the NFL after Week 1 when the favorites dominated, then they were probably left scratching their heads after underdogs turned the tables in Week 2.
By the time the Week 3 openers were posted at the Westgate at 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, seven underdogs had pulled outright upsets in Week 2, including teams like the Buccaneers, Redskins, Raiders and Jaguars who looked so bad in Week 1 (and the Browns, who closed pick-'em against the Titans, whom a lot of people were lauding after their season-opening win). As a result, we saw a number of adjustments in the Westgate's lines from the advance lines that were posted last week.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
First off, we should point out that the Westgate kept the Bears-Seahawks game off the board after Jay Cutler suffered a hamstring injury against Arizona and is questionable for next week. The other major quarterback injury was the Cowboys' Tony Romo's broken clavicle, but he's definitely out and the Westgate made Dallas pick-'em against Atlanta in Week 3.
As happens every week, the Sunday night participants were taken off the board at kickoff and will likely be adjusted depending on how they fare in tonight's game. We already mentioned that Seattle's next game is off the board; Green Bay opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Kansas City.
Here are notable adjustments and line moves for the rest of the Week 3 card:

Steelers-Rams: The Westgate opened St. Louis -1.5, but offshore books -- as well as William Hill and the Wynn -- opened Pittsburgh as a favorite of between -1 and -2.5, so the Westgate opener was bet to pick 'em.
Chargers-Vikings: Minnesota opened -3, but offshore books and William Hill and Wynn again were lower, so the Westgate went to 2.5.
Buccaneers-Texans: This line was Houston -8.5 last week, but Tampa Bay's win at New Orleans and the Texans starting 0-2 has seen this adjusted to 7. It looks like it'll be a mix of 6.5/7.
Eagles-Jets: Philadelphia was -3.5 at the Westgate last week, but after the Eagles' pitiful performance against Dallas and dropping to 0-2, this line moved over the key number and reopened at 2.5. Most books have it off the board with the Jets playing Monday night.
Saints-Panthers: This was Carolina -2.5 last week, but the Panthers are 2-0 and the Saints are 0-2 and now it's up to 3 at the Westgate (with added juice of -120). Other books are already at 3.5.
Falcons-Cowboys: As mentioned above, this was Dallas -4.5 last week, but with Romo replaced by Brandon Weeden, it's now pick-'em.
Broncos-Lions: This line was pick-'em last week, but after the Broncos upset the Chiefs on Thursday night and the Lions fell to 0-2 with their loss at Minnesota, Denver is now -2.5.
We'll see if any other lines move when most of the rest of the Las Vegas books post their Week 3 lines on Monday morning.

Week 3 openers

Courtesy of the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook
Redskins
Giants -4

Steelers
Rams -1.5 PK

Chargers
Vikings -3 -2.5

Buccaneers
Texans -7

Eagles -2.5
Jets

Saints
Panthers -3 (-120)

Jaguars
Patriots -13

Bengals
Ravens -2.5

Raiders
Browns -4.5

Colts -5
Titans

Falcons
Cowboys PK

49ers
Cardinals -6.5

Bears
Seahawks OFF

Bills
Dolphins -3 (-120) -3 (EV)

Broncos -2.5
Lions

Chiefs
Packers -6.5

Note: The second numbers are the moves as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game.
 

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