[h=1]Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 4[/h]
Will Harris, ESPN Contributor
Auburn and Arkansas disappointed for a second straight week, the shine is off the Los Angeles teams, Indiana and Southern Miss won the most important games on their schedules, and Ole Miss took Week 3's marquee matchup in a game that probably didn't surprise many fans of the losing side. This week we look at adjustments throughout the five power conferences, share three sets of league power rankings and see what the early numbers have to say about Week 4.
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 3[/h]SEC
Prior to the year, we thought there were just four contenders in the SEC. In rough order, we liked Auburn, LSU, Georgia and Ole Miss. Auburn's off the list, and it might be time to re-evaluate the order of the others now that Chad Kellyhas passed his first real test. Auburn and Arkansas are talented teams with good staffs that will improve as the year goes on, but <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">the injuries are piling up and neither offense is functioning as expected. Arkansas is in better shape in the short term, but Auburn has a higher ceiling for growth and is the more likely of the two to make major strides in November and deliver a big bowl win despite a disappointing year.
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Vanderbilt is still committing the kind of fatal errors that poorly coached teams do, but this outfit is vastly improved. Derek Mason's personal oversight of the defense has that bunch playing with an edge, and the offense -- with the commitment to Johnny McCrary, the emergence ofTrent Sherfield and the steadiness ofRalph Webb and Steven Scheu -- finally has an identity to build around.
Here's my power ranking of the SEC right now:
1. LSU
2. Mississippi
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Texas A&M
6. Tennessee
7. Arkansas
8. Auburn
9. Mississippi State
10. Missouri
11. Florida
12. Kentucky
13. South Carolina
14. Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Not much has changed from our preseason assessment of the Big Ten, other than the addition by subtraction that has sparked Illinois and the emergence of Iowa and Northwestern from the status of "certainly-decent-and-maybe-good" teams to "certainly-some-flavor-of-good-and-maybe-even-better." Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard might be good enough to overcome his playcaller, and Northwestern's defense is playing with an edge not seen since early 2013. We still like Minnesota in the West, and have confidence that the currently-broken offense is fixable with better health and continued coaching.
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1. Michigan State
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Iowa
6. Nebraska
7. Northwestern
8. Wisconsin
9. Penn State
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Maryland
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers
Big 12
The biggest adjustment was one we made last week, elevating Oklahoma from Big 12 contender and national championship dark horse to Big 12 favorite and national championship co-favorite. Having Pat Mahomes under center has made a very good offense great at Texas Tech, and new coordinator David Gibbs has given some hope to what was an awful defense last year. A dormant Texas offense exploded behind Jerrod Heard, but a playmaker does not an identity make, and it's hard to expect Heard to keep rolling up more than 500 yards of total offense once defensive coaches have some film on him.
1. Oklahoma
2. TCU
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. West Virginia
7. Kansas State
8. Texas
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
Pac-12
We didn't want to overreact to Arizona State's offensive line performance against a Texas A&M defensive line that will cause issues for everyone, and the struggles against Cal Poly weren't a big shock considering how far in the tank this team was mentally the week after its humbling loss to the Aggies. But after Friday night's performance against New Mexico we're very concerned that this line might be a fatal flaw rather than just the weak link on an otherwise good team. The Sun Devils could still win a balanced Pac-12 that lacks a playoff-worthy team, but the line is an issue for a team whose Kool-Aid we were really drinking in the preseason.
ACC
Much was made this offseason about the nine fall camp quarterback battles in the SEC, but the ACC now reigns supreme when it comes to quarterback uncertainty. Four teams -- Boston College, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest -- have seen their quarterbacks go down, three of them with long-term injuries. And Louisville and Pittsburgh have been unable to stabilize the position with a clear starter. Expect the Clemson-NC State winner to face the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech winner in the ACC title game, with Tar Heels defensive coordinator Gene Chizik and Seminoles tailback Dalvin Cook playing key spoiler roles along the way.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 4[/h]
Michigan (-5.5) versus BYU
As a redshirt sophomore, Jim Harbaugh started five games for the 1984 Michigan squad that lost the national championship-clinching Holiday Bowl to BYU in the schools' only meeting until this coming Saturday. Harbaugh didn't play in the bowl, but he'll get a chance to exact some belated revenge when a potentially drained BYU team comes to Ann Arbor. Last week many UCLA backers probably made the mistake of thinking that the Cardiac Cougars were out of gas after two down-to-the-wire thrillers. That's the main issue we'll be looking to resolve later this week, along with the question of whether the loss of three crucial components of the BYU run game -- quarterback Taysom Hill, running back Jamaal Williams and tight end Steven Richards -- finally catches up with this offense.
Tennessee at Florida (-2)
Sure, Florida has won 10 straight in the series, but are the Gators really as far along in Year 1 of the Jim McElwain era as the Vols are in Year 3 under Butch Jones? Tennessee was a small road favorite at the end of August, and it's hard to see how the early-season resumes have caused an adjustment.
Our conclusion: too much respect for a not-that-tough-to-beat Kentucky squad, and not enough for a championship-caliber Oklahoma team that's severely underranked at 15th in the AP Poll.
Our advice: buy this early, as Tennessee will be favored by kickoff.
Buffalo (-1) versus Nevada
Last week Florida Atlantic backers were counting on something that had only happened seven times in 117 games: Buffalo coach Lance Leipold losing outright. Nevada backers: understand what you're asking this week. And also don't forget to consider the Wolf Pack's travel schedule: Reno one day, southeastern Texas the next couple days, back to Reno for four days, then on to upstate New York.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]A trio of SEC teams saw their national championship odds at the Westgate drop from last week's price of 20-to-1: LSU and Georgia are now 12-1, while Ole Miss fell all the way to 10-1. Notre Dame's odds also fell, but the oddsmakers still don't think DeShone Kizer is quite up to Malik Zaire's standard. The Irish were at 12-1 before Zaire's injury, 40-1 last week and 25-1 after beating Georgia Tech.
Alabama (8-1 to 20-1), USC (12-1 to 25-1) and Auburn (30-1 to 80-1) all saw their odds lengthen. Ohio State moved from 8-5 to 7-4 after struggling with Northern Illinois.
As top teams suffer losses, the chances of other contenders naturally improve, so their odds tend to drop even if they didn't themselves impress that week. It's therefore surprising that Oklahoma remains at 30-1 again this week. That's easily our choice for the best play on the board.
California is a big mover again in Week 4 early action. The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites at Washington and are now at -4.5.
Memphis routed Cincinnati last year, and after another poor showing from the Bearcats defense, the Tigers have been bet up from an opener of -6 all the way to minus-9.
Early bettors still have faith in Ohio State. The Buckeyes are minus-31 against a talented Western Michigan team, up from the opener of -28.
Texas A&M is a touchdown favorite over Arkansas after opening at minus-4.5. The Hogs were a field goal favorite before losing to Toledo.
[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]Virginia's not a team we'd ask to find a way to win a fair fight. Mike London has been a dog or favorite of +3.5 to -3.5 17 times in his five years at the helm; his Cavs have covered twice. More than anything else, that utter haplessness against teams that reasonable expectations say are peers is why London is on his way out.
East Carolina's Ruffin McNeill has covered two-thirds of his tries as a home underdog and two-thirds of his games off a loss.
Kentucky hasn't been favored over an SEC team not named Vanderbilt since Rich Brooks was head coach. Mark Stoops is 3-15 straight up and 5-13 ATS in SEC play. But the Cats are giving weight to the two-time defending East champ.
Since beating Kent State to open the 2011 season, Nick Saban is 0-12 ATS when laying more than five touchdowns. Saban just took his 15th regular season loss as Bama coach. He's 3-11 ATS in the game following the previous 14.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Kareem Hunt's Toledo Rockets were laying Arkansas State four points when he ran for 275 yards and five touchdowns in a 63-44 GoDaddy Bowl win in January, but now Hunt and the Rockets are giving the visiting Red Wolves just 7.5 at home. Despite an impressive start that has Toledo looking better on paper than in 2014, that's less than a home-field adjustment over last year's price, which tells us that the oddsmakers are giving the revenge motivation some credit and/or are accounting for the possibility of the Rockets being a little out of gas after back-to-back close wins over power five schools.
Quants dominate both sides of the world of modern sports betting, but equally important to the bookmakers' bottom line is the reality that oddsmakers are making far sharper situational adjustments than they were 20 or even 10 years ago.
Will Harris, ESPN Contributor
Auburn and Arkansas disappointed for a second straight week, the shine is off the Los Angeles teams, Indiana and Southern Miss won the most important games on their schedules, and Ole Miss took Week 3's marquee matchup in a game that probably didn't surprise many fans of the losing side. This week we look at adjustments throughout the five power conferences, share three sets of league power rankings and see what the early numbers have to say about Week 4.
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 3[/h]SEC
Prior to the year, we thought there were just four contenders in the SEC. In rough order, we liked Auburn, LSU, Georgia and Ole Miss. Auburn's off the list, and it might be time to re-evaluate the order of the others now that Chad Kellyhas passed his first real test. Auburn and Arkansas are talented teams with good staffs that will improve as the year goes on, but <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">the injuries are piling up and neither offense is functioning as expected. Arkansas is in better shape in the short term, but Auburn has a higher ceiling for growth and is the more likely of the two to make major strides in November and deliver a big bowl win despite a disappointing year.
</offer>
Vanderbilt is still committing the kind of fatal errors that poorly coached teams do, but this outfit is vastly improved. Derek Mason's personal oversight of the defense has that bunch playing with an edge, and the offense -- with the commitment to Johnny McCrary, the emergence ofTrent Sherfield and the steadiness ofRalph Webb and Steven Scheu -- finally has an identity to build around.
Here's my power ranking of the SEC right now:
1. LSU
2. Mississippi
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Texas A&M
6. Tennessee
7. Arkansas
8. Auburn
9. Mississippi State
10. Missouri
11. Florida
12. Kentucky
13. South Carolina
14. Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Not much has changed from our preseason assessment of the Big Ten, other than the addition by subtraction that has sparked Illinois and the emergence of Iowa and Northwestern from the status of "certainly-decent-and-maybe-good" teams to "certainly-some-flavor-of-good-and-maybe-even-better." Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard might be good enough to overcome his playcaller, and Northwestern's defense is playing with an edge not seen since early 2013. We still like Minnesota in the West, and have confidence that the currently-broken offense is fixable with better health and continued coaching.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
1. Michigan State
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Iowa
6. Nebraska
7. Northwestern
8. Wisconsin
9. Penn State
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Maryland
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers
Big 12
The biggest adjustment was one we made last week, elevating Oklahoma from Big 12 contender and national championship dark horse to Big 12 favorite and national championship co-favorite. Having Pat Mahomes under center has made a very good offense great at Texas Tech, and new coordinator David Gibbs has given some hope to what was an awful defense last year. A dormant Texas offense exploded behind Jerrod Heard, but a playmaker does not an identity make, and it's hard to expect Heard to keep rolling up more than 500 yards of total offense once defensive coaches have some film on him.
1. Oklahoma
2. TCU
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. West Virginia
7. Kansas State
8. Texas
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
Pac-12
We didn't want to overreact to Arizona State's offensive line performance against a Texas A&M defensive line that will cause issues for everyone, and the struggles against Cal Poly weren't a big shock considering how far in the tank this team was mentally the week after its humbling loss to the Aggies. But after Friday night's performance against New Mexico we're very concerned that this line might be a fatal flaw rather than just the weak link on an otherwise good team. The Sun Devils could still win a balanced Pac-12 that lacks a playoff-worthy team, but the line is an issue for a team whose Kool-Aid we were really drinking in the preseason.
ACC
Much was made this offseason about the nine fall camp quarterback battles in the SEC, but the ACC now reigns supreme when it comes to quarterback uncertainty. Four teams -- Boston College, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest -- have seen their quarterbacks go down, three of them with long-term injuries. And Louisville and Pittsburgh have been unable to stabilize the position with a clear starter. Expect the Clemson-NC State winner to face the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech winner in the ACC title game, with Tar Heels defensive coordinator Gene Chizik and Seminoles tailback Dalvin Cook playing key spoiler roles along the way.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 4[/h]
Michigan (-5.5) versus BYU
As a redshirt sophomore, Jim Harbaugh started five games for the 1984 Michigan squad that lost the national championship-clinching Holiday Bowl to BYU in the schools' only meeting until this coming Saturday. Harbaugh didn't play in the bowl, but he'll get a chance to exact some belated revenge when a potentially drained BYU team comes to Ann Arbor. Last week many UCLA backers probably made the mistake of thinking that the Cardiac Cougars were out of gas after two down-to-the-wire thrillers. That's the main issue we'll be looking to resolve later this week, along with the question of whether the loss of three crucial components of the BYU run game -- quarterback Taysom Hill, running back Jamaal Williams and tight end Steven Richards -- finally catches up with this offense.
Tennessee at Florida (-2)
Sure, Florida has won 10 straight in the series, but are the Gators really as far along in Year 1 of the Jim McElwain era as the Vols are in Year 3 under Butch Jones? Tennessee was a small road favorite at the end of August, and it's hard to see how the early-season resumes have caused an adjustment.
Our conclusion: too much respect for a not-that-tough-to-beat Kentucky squad, and not enough for a championship-caliber Oklahoma team that's severely underranked at 15th in the AP Poll.
Our advice: buy this early, as Tennessee will be favored by kickoff.
Buffalo (-1) versus Nevada
Last week Florida Atlantic backers were counting on something that had only happened seven times in 117 games: Buffalo coach Lance Leipold losing outright. Nevada backers: understand what you're asking this week. And also don't forget to consider the Wolf Pack's travel schedule: Reno one day, southeastern Texas the next couple days, back to Reno for four days, then on to upstate New York.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]A trio of SEC teams saw their national championship odds at the Westgate drop from last week's price of 20-to-1: LSU and Georgia are now 12-1, while Ole Miss fell all the way to 10-1. Notre Dame's odds also fell, but the oddsmakers still don't think DeShone Kizer is quite up to Malik Zaire's standard. The Irish were at 12-1 before Zaire's injury, 40-1 last week and 25-1 after beating Georgia Tech.
Alabama (8-1 to 20-1), USC (12-1 to 25-1) and Auburn (30-1 to 80-1) all saw their odds lengthen. Ohio State moved from 8-5 to 7-4 after struggling with Northern Illinois.
As top teams suffer losses, the chances of other contenders naturally improve, so their odds tend to drop even if they didn't themselves impress that week. It's therefore surprising that Oklahoma remains at 30-1 again this week. That's easily our choice for the best play on the board.
California is a big mover again in Week 4 early action. The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites at Washington and are now at -4.5.
Memphis routed Cincinnati last year, and after another poor showing from the Bearcats defense, the Tigers have been bet up from an opener of -6 all the way to minus-9.
Early bettors still have faith in Ohio State. The Buckeyes are minus-31 against a talented Western Michigan team, up from the opener of -28.
Texas A&M is a touchdown favorite over Arkansas after opening at minus-4.5. The Hogs were a field goal favorite before losing to Toledo.
[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]Virginia's not a team we'd ask to find a way to win a fair fight. Mike London has been a dog or favorite of +3.5 to -3.5 17 times in his five years at the helm; his Cavs have covered twice. More than anything else, that utter haplessness against teams that reasonable expectations say are peers is why London is on his way out.
East Carolina's Ruffin McNeill has covered two-thirds of his tries as a home underdog and two-thirds of his games off a loss.
Kentucky hasn't been favored over an SEC team not named Vanderbilt since Rich Brooks was head coach. Mark Stoops is 3-15 straight up and 5-13 ATS in SEC play. But the Cats are giving weight to the two-time defending East champ.
Since beating Kent State to open the 2011 season, Nick Saban is 0-12 ATS when laying more than five touchdowns. Saban just took his 15th regular season loss as Bama coach. He's 3-11 ATS in the game following the previous 14.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Kareem Hunt's Toledo Rockets were laying Arkansas State four points when he ran for 275 yards and five touchdowns in a 63-44 GoDaddy Bowl win in January, but now Hunt and the Rockets are giving the visiting Red Wolves just 7.5 at home. Despite an impressive start that has Toledo looking better on paper than in 2014, that's less than a home-field adjustment over last year's price, which tells us that the oddsmakers are giving the revenge motivation some credit and/or are accounting for the possibility of the Rockets being a little out of gas after back-to-back close wins over power five schools.
Quants dominate both sides of the world of modern sports betting, but equally important to the bookmakers' bottom line is the reality that oddsmakers are making far sharper situational adjustments than they were 20 or even 10 years ago.
