2015 NFL picks

This is my second year at the RX and I am glad I came across this website. Lots of great ideas and good cappers here. I spend several hours reading the different posts each week.

My background is in finance and statistics. A number of years back I decided to apply to NFL gambling. The results were terrific. I made a lot of money over a 7 year span but in 2013 I gave a big chunk back to the books. 2014 I finished a little under 500 and have been working on my model to try and get it right again.

Week 3

SD at Min -2.5 I see a nice dose of A.P. in this one as Minny continues to control the clock and the ball. Chargers are not great at getting pressure on the QB so as long as Bridgewater doesn't make to many mistakes I think Vikings win turnover battle as well. Should be a close game but I like the Viks at home

Den -3 at Det Peyton is taking one last stab at a Superbowl and he plays well indoors. Denver needs to keep winning so they can keep pace with the Pats and try and secure a first round bye and home field advantage in playoffs. Denver gets an extra 3 days to prepare for this one and the Lions defense is crap. They lost to many players to FA and have not gotten much pressure on their opponents QB. I think Manning has alot of time in the pocket and he picks apart Detroit's secondary. Hoping D. Thomas has his breakout game of the year he is killing my fantasy team right now. Denver defense has been carrying the team and I think they are going to give Stafford problems. They create pressure and hit the QB; bad combo for Stafford since he likes throwing it up....I think 3 int's is not out of the question this week. I'm considering 2 units on this one will keep you posted.

SF at Ari -6.5 Normally I don't like betting division games but Arizona is a different team as long as Palmer is playing. SF had one of the worst offseasons of all teams and I think this week it will catch up to them. Ari knows the team well and should be able to exploit the weak d line and questionable secondary. 49ers are giving up the most yards/play in the league right now and are one of the worst at passing def. I think this is Zona's strength and Palmer is going to pick them apart. I want to jump on this pick soon because I don't like giving up a TD in a division game but at 6.5 I'll willing to gamble.

Philly at NYJ -2.5 Jets I think will end up as one of the best def's in football by end year if not #1. Their front 7 is tough and with Revis back their secondary is going to be hard to throw on. Philly looks terrible which is a worry because they need a win I just don't think it's on the road this week. Philly is converting a league worst 25% on 3rd down. Even after I adjusted their numbers up to closer to the league average I still show the Jets by a TD. I think Jets are playing better than expected and the public hasn't caught up yet. So, line has value I am getting my bet in now while line is still under 3.

Pitt -1 at Stl I think Rams defense is overrated this year. They have gotten lit up 2 weeks in a row against mediocre offenses. This week they have to deal with the fresh legs of Bell and the uncoverable Brown. I think it's going to be to much for them. Pitt needs a win to stay within a game in the tight AFC North. My biggest hold back on the game is next week Pitt plays Balt on Thursday.....I hope they don't look past Rams.

BOL with all of your action this week

Forgot my 10 point teaser- Chi +24.5, NE -3.5, Den +7

im with you on the Jets game
this line should be 6 or 7

dealiak said:

This is my second year at the RX and I am glad I came across this website. Lots of great ideas and good cappers here. I spend several hours reading the different posts each week.

My background is in finance and statistics. A number of years back I decided to apply to NFL gambling. The results were terrific. I made a lot of money over a 7 year span but in 2013 I gave a big chunk back to the books. 2014 I finished a little under 500 and have been working on my model to try and get it right again.

Week 3

SD at Min -2.5 I see a nice dose of A.P. in this one as Minny continues to control the clock and the ball. Chargers are not great at getting pressure on the QB so as long as Bridgewater doesn't make to many mistakes I think Vikings win turnover battle as well. Should be a close game but I like the Viks at home

Den -3 at Det Peyton is taking one last stab at a Superbowl and he plays well indoors. Denver needs to keep winning so they can keep pace with the Pats and try and secure a first round bye and home field advantage in playoffs. Denver gets an extra 3 days to prepare for this one and the Lions defense is crap. They lost to many players to FA and have not gotten much pressure on their opponents QB. I think Manning has alot of time in the pocket and he picks apart Detroit's secondary. Hoping D. Thomas has his breakout game of the year he is killing my fantasy team right now. Denver defense has been carrying the team and I think they are going to give Stafford problems. They create pressure and hit the QB; bad combo for Stafford since he likes throwing it up....I think 3 int's is not out of the question this week. I'm considering 2 units on this one will keep you posted.

SF at Ari -6.5 Normally I don't like betting division games but Arizona is a different team as long as Palmer is playing. SF had one of the worst offseasons of all teams and I think this week it will catch up to them. Ari knows the team well and should be able to exploit the weak d line and questionable secondary. 49ers are giving up the most yards/play in the league right now and are one of the worst at passing def. I think this is Zona's strength and Palmer is going to pick them apart. I want to jump on this pick soon because I don't like giving up a TD in a division game but at 6.5 I'll willing to gamble.

Philly at NYJ -2.5 Jets I think will end up as one of the best def's in football by end year if not #1. Their front 7 is tough and with Revis back their secondary is going to be hard to throw on. Philly looks terrible which is a worry because they need a win I just don't think it's on the road this week. Philly is converting a league worst 25% on 3rd down. Even after I adjusted their numbers up to closer to the league average I still show the Jets by a TD. I think Jets are playing better than expected and the public hasn't caught up yet. So, line has value I am getting my bet in now while line is still under 3.

Pitt -1 at Stl I think Rams defense is overrated this year. They have gotten lit up 2 weeks in a row against mediocre offenses. This week they have to deal with the fresh legs of Bell and the uncoverable Brown. I think it's going to be to much for them. Pitt needs a win to stay within a game in the tight AFC North. My biggest hold back on the game is next week Pitt plays Balt on Thursday.....I hope they don't look past Rams.

BOL with all of your action this week

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looks great

pizza said:

im with you on the Jets game
this line should be 6 or 7

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Glad to hear someone is pizza. Let's hope NY gets down to business this Sunday.

I'm glad to hear we are on the same side runmaker. Hopefully the books will be paying us come Sunday.

Good luck and i hope you have a great sophomore year here at the RX. :toast:

I'm happy with my week 3 results. Should have been better...I don't know why I screw around with teaser plays.

Min -2.5 Win
Den -3 (-125) Win
Ari -6.5 Win
NYJ -2.5 Loss
Pitt -1 (-115) Win
10 pt teaser
Jax (loss), NE (win), and Den (win) overall Loss

4-2 record for the week
up 1.4 units

Week 4

Two plays this week:

NYG @ BUF -5 Bills have a new QB and head coach and truly seem like a different team. Buf has been good on paper the last few years but always seem like a bottom 1/3 nfl caliber team. I think they are for real this year. Even without Shady I think NYG are beatable. Eli just doesn't seem to have alot of confidence and BUF is going to pressure/hurry him and I am thinking quite a few turnovers this week.

Car -3 @ TB Car has several runners getting it done so far and this includes Newton. TB is one of the worst teams in the NFL against the run so I like that matchup. TB is having trouble scoring points this year and the same can't be said for the Panthers. TB home record is not good and I think this will be a two score win by Newton and company.

Some other games I am looking at

Phil @ Wash 3 I like Washington here. Eagles got lucky to win last week I think. 4 turnovers by the Jets.....this is not going to happen to often.

Min 7 @ Den Manning hasn't really faced a good defense yet and I think the Broncos are lucky to be 3-0. I don't think Minny wins outright but covering is a possibility

Cle 7.5 @ SD Chargers have alot of players hurt and several are on the o-line. I might take Cle ML here

Might do a 6 pt-teaser Wash, Min, Cle.....will keep you posted. Good luck with all of your action this week

Deal..............BOL with this weeks action.........indy

A good week

Car -3 (-125) W
Buf -5 L
Wash +3 W
Min +7 W
Cle +7.5 W

4-1 in week 4 up 2.45 units on the week
overall on season 8-3 up 3.85 units

I did the teaser and Cle ML but didn't post so won't count

no lean on tonight's game just gonna watch. Good luck with your action

Week 5

Two plays from my model this week:

-2.5 Buf @ Ten I know Ten is coming off a bye and that fact alone tends to help teams win/cover due to the extra time to plan and practice. However, Ten has not been good at that over the past several seasons. I think this is due to the fact they are inconsistent on both sides of the ball. Titans have not seen a defense yet like Buffalo this year and I think the rookie QB will toss a few picks in this game. The running game of the Titans isn't doing well either so I forsee Rex Ryan blitzing and causing havoc. I am little worried about not Shady but luckily the Bills are playing at a defense thats rated as one of the worst in the NFL. I think Buffalo wins by two scores

-2.5 Ari @ Det (-120) I bought half a point on this one just to get off the 3. This line makes me scratch my head. I wonder if the boys in Vegas know the refs will be impacting the outcome and therefore set the line so everyone bets and they make money. Seriously, Ari is worlds better than Det right now.

Other games I am into as well...

Following 3 will be a 7 point teaser play-

Wash +14.5@ Atl Atlanta has been doing a nice job of not turning the ball over. The Falcons run game has been terrible since Michael Turner got old a few years back but it looks like they finally have a workhorse in Freeman. I think one of the reasons the Falcons have ran the ball so effectively is that defenses have not been paying much attention to the running game. I think that changes this week. Washington has one of the better run defenses in the league. I think Washington will lose this game but not be more than two scores. That's why I am taking the 7 points and get the line to 14.5

NO +12 @ Philly Saints are a different team with Brees running the show. The overall team stat lines of NO I think is skewed due to Brees not playing some earlier this year. Who is really scared of Eagles Def?....I'm not and I don't think Brees will be either. On the offense side Philly has shown a lot of bad plays with turnovers. Until they get this corrected I think the trend continues. Philly by 2 TD's....I don't think so give me the Saints and the extra 7 points. Saints might win this outright. Will get on ML as we get closer to game time. If it gets above +200 I might gamble for 1/2 a unit

Cle +14 @ Bal Tight division game with two teams who are not that good. I think the defenses will keep this game close and low scoring. Ravens likely win but I don't think they win by 2 TD's

3 teams 7 point teaser Wash +14.5, NO +12, Cleveland + 14 (+120)

Good luck this week

Titans will be a favorite by Sunday........this game confuses me.

I agree with the Cards -2.5

Good luck!

TCG-you were right about the Titans....should have waited would have won. At least we got the Cards game

1-2 on the week. down 1.2 units
overall 9-5 up 2.65 units

Monday play Pit ML +170

What a great game last night between Steelers and SD. I would have liked to been at a sportsbook in Vegas...I'm sure everyone was on their feet with lots of cries and cheers.

Week 5 I was ahead again but not by much. 2-2 on the week up .5 units

Overall 10-5 up 4.35 units

Both underdogs won straight up on the Thursday and Monday game. I'm guessing this is not common will go back and look at past data.

Week 6

Three plays from my model:

Wash +6 @ NYJ Both teams are playing well right now....but are jets really a TD better than Wash? Skins were close to beating Falcons last week and I think Atl is much better than the Jets. I think both defenses are good and will slow down each other's offense. Wash has one of the best run def in the league and I think they will bottle up Ivory. Wash could pull off an upset and win SU

Mia @ Ten -2.5 Miami has a new coach and I don't know if it is going to help. Dolphins were picked as a playoff team preseason and some even talked about a superbowl run. I never bought into Tannehill and figured playoffs were a stretch. The players in Miami seem like they have given up already and I wonder if they will play for a full 60 minutes. The previous two games against Jets and Buffalo were a disaster. I think Ten wins by 2 scores

Car @ Sea -6.5 Panthers are undefeated but when you look at their opponents this season the overall record is 4-15. I think Car is overrated and will stumble in Sea. Sea has issues on offense but the def is still a top unit. I think sea will run effectively and that should open up Wilson for a 250 yard day. Hawks just gave up a big game last week in Cincy when they blew that big lead. Maybe it's the beginning of the end of Seattle's playoff run.....but I am willing to gamble that Seattle's talent level from the previous two years will be enough to make a playoff push.


Other games I am into:

Den -4.5 @ Cle Browns get a big win over a division rival last week. Bad news for the Browns. After a win they tend to play like crap the following week. IDK- losing mentality in Cleveland so I'm not sure if they get overconfident from a win and then don't prepare as well for the next week....but as a Browns fan I can say this pattern has been going on for 10 years easy. Denver brings in a very tough def and the browns offense is not good. If Cleveland gets held to under 200 yards of total offense I would not be surprised. Manning is not the same....but I don't think the Browns have a defense that is really going to slow him down. Peyton's arm strength might be gone but his football brain and IQ is still the best in the NFL. I think he sits back sees what the defense will give him and then take it. Browns lose by at least 14 in this one

KC @ Min -3.5 Minnesota is coming off a bye and had two weeks to prepare for a team who just lost their best player. Vikings def is playing very well this year......I don't think KC can recover from losing their star player and Minn is going to look to put a nail in the Chiefs season. KC pass defense not that good. I think Minny throws it early and after they get a lead Peterson will pound the rock.

I may end up with a play in the SD/GB game but want to keep my eye on SD o-line injuries throughout the week. BOL with your action this week

add atl -3.5

week 6 was a disaster

wash (L)
ten (L)
Sea (L)
Den (L)
Min (W)
Atl (L)

record in week 6 1-5 down 4.1 units overall on season 11 - 10 up .25 units

week 7

-1.5 Min @ Det (2 units)
Dal @ NYG -3.5 (2 units)
NO @ Indy -4 (2 units)
TB @ Wash bet is TB ML +150
Oak @ SD bet is Oak ML +180
Lions/Vikings over 44.5
Stl/Cle over 42
Hou/Mia over 44.5

10 pt teaser- Hou +14.5, NE +2, Cle +16.5 (-120)
6pt teaser Ari -2, Ne -2 (-110)
6pt teaser Jax +10.5, Ten +11 (-110)

BOL this week with your action