Spread matters

Minura · Sep 23, 2015

Through 2 weeks of the NFL the spread has mattered in only 1 one out of 32 games. (i.e just pick the winner and the spread would be covered)

Using LVH supercontest lines;
Week 1- Giants covered but lost. NE/Pit was a push.
Week 2- nothing.

1/32 is well below the average, would be interesting to see how things move going forward. Lots big favorites coming up.

RunMaker · Sep 23, 2015

Excellent thread. True as always. When I backtracked this years ago I think it was like 89% - 91%. Can't remember.

And this is why one should play Arizona at home vs. the 49ers this weekend, one could argue. And why one should fade the 49ers ATS with their tough schedule over their first 6 games (likely 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS).

Crumbling franchise, horrible management, team to go into a downward spiral..... etc, etc.

As always, from here we take into account the spread and correlate to the total and on and on.

PigskinArmor · Sep 23, 2015

Dogs winning 80% has helped this work.

Vlad the Impaler · Sep 23, 2015

Not surprising since alot of spreads are less than a TD.

Whose laying 14 points on the Pats this week? I know alot of people take the Jags in spots like this 2 years ago and constantly got burned because 14 is alot in the NFL.

Spread matters

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