[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 3[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
We're two weeks into the 2015 NFL season and contrarian strategy continues to provide profitable results for bettors. Last week's system matches were 3-1 against the spread (ATS), pushing our season record to 5-2 ATS. Before we examine our latest betting system and picks, let's first analyze early returns from contrarian betting.
One of the foundational blocks of our contrarian strategy includes betting against the public. Whichever team the public loads up on, we simply bet the other side. Although underdogs have gone just 16-16 ATS this season, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 17-13 ATS, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets are 7-3 ATS.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our success continues with the 2015 NFL Betting Against the Public Report, which details the sweet spot for contrarian betting. The featured system posted a 2-0 ATS record last week, which pushes the all-time record to 113-66 ATS.
This week, we'll employ another contrarian betting strategy that seeks to find value by identifying betting market overreactions based on recent results. To do this, we used our Bet Labs analysis software and created a system with a 62.5 percent ATS win rate since 2003 and features two current game matches for this week's slate.
We have stated in the past that bettors place far too much emphasis on home-field advantage. Sure, there are stadiums like CenturyLink Field where the crowd has helped the Seahawks post an NFL-best 57-36 ATS record (compared to just 40-55 ATS on the road), but that's the exception, not the rule.
In our database, home teams have won 57.6 percent of their games straight up and have won by an average margin of 2.64 points. However, the standard belief is that home-field advantage is worth three points as compared to a neutral-site game. This would indicate that although there is value to playing at home, oddsmakers shade these lines too much due to public perception and betting habits. This information is validated by our historical ATS data, which shows that visitors have won 51 percent of their games against the spread (1,526-1,469).
Knowing that there was a slight edge to taking road teams, we hypothesized that our results would improve significantly by focusing on teams that played their previous game on the road and lost.
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ESPN INSIDER
We're two weeks into the 2015 NFL season and contrarian strategy continues to provide profitable results for bettors. Last week's system matches were 3-1 against the spread (ATS), pushing our season record to 5-2 ATS. Before we examine our latest betting system and picks, let's first analyze early returns from contrarian betting.
One of the foundational blocks of our contrarian strategy includes betting against the public. Whichever team the public loads up on, we simply bet the other side. Although underdogs have gone just 16-16 ATS this season, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 17-13 ATS, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets are 7-3 ATS.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our success continues with the 2015 NFL Betting Against the Public Report, which details the sweet spot for contrarian betting. The featured system posted a 2-0 ATS record last week, which pushes the all-time record to 113-66 ATS.
This week, we'll employ another contrarian betting strategy that seeks to find value by identifying betting market overreactions based on recent results. To do this, we used our Bet Labs analysis software and created a system with a 62.5 percent ATS win rate since 2003 and features two current game matches for this week's slate.
We have stated in the past that bettors place far too much emphasis on home-field advantage. Sure, there are stadiums like CenturyLink Field where the crowd has helped the Seahawks post an NFL-best 57-36 ATS record (compared to just 40-55 ATS on the road), but that's the exception, not the rule.
In our database, home teams have won 57.6 percent of their games straight up and have won by an average margin of 2.64 points. However, the standard belief is that home-field advantage is worth three points as compared to a neutral-site game. This would indicate that although there is value to playing at home, oddsmakers shade these lines too much due to public perception and betting habits. This information is validated by our historical ATS data, which shows that visitors have won 51 percent of their games against the spread (1,526-1,469).
Knowing that there was a slight edge to taking road teams, we hypothesized that our results would improve significantly by focusing on teams that played their previous game on the road and lost.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px 0px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
---|---|---|---|
Road Team Following Loss | 689-605 (53.2%) | +50.01 | +3.9% |
Road Team Following Road Loss | 277-187 (59.7%) | +78.41 | +16.9% |
Road Underdog Following Road Loss | 201-133 (60.2%) | +59.14 | +17.7% |
Road Underdog Following Road Loss, OU <45 | 157-94 (62.5%) | +56.73 | +22.6% |
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |