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NFL TRENDS

Sunday, September 27

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 144-181 ATS (-55.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 144-181 ATS (-55.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 1) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) at HOUSTON (0 - 2) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) at NY JETS (2 - 0) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 168-128 ATS (+27.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (0 - 2) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 64-92 ATS (-37.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (2 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 0) - 9/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (0 - 2) at SEATTLE (0 - 2) - 9/27/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 1) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 9/27/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 0) at DETROIT (0 - 2) - 9/27/2015, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 28

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 0) - 9/28/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, September 27

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY JETS
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. HOUSTON
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. DALLAS
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New Orleans's last 21 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

4:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. SEATTLE
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Chicago

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. DETROIT
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Denver is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Detroit's last 22 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

DON ANTHONY

10* Bonus Play OF THE DAY
Dallas Cowboys +2

I think it's safe to say that everyone and their mother is going to line up at the window to bet the Atlanta Falcons. It seems way too easy to take Atlanta here, basically to just win the game. Vegas isn't stupid and they don't like giving money away. I believe this a huge trap. I am aware of all the injuries to Dallas, but typically in sports when a superstar goes down, the next game the team rises up and gives a very solid effort the next game. As long as Weeden doesn't make too many mistakes and takes care of the ball, Dallas has a very good chance to pull the upset at home.

Wunderdog

Buffalo +3

So when are Joe Philbin and the Dolphins going to take that next step? They keep making changes to a bad offensive line and nothing improves. Miami ranks #30 in yards rushing -- their leading rusher is averaging 2.9 ypc, and QB Ryan Tannehill has been sacked five times in two games. They gave Tannehill a speedy WR in Mike Wallace -- and he was a bust, one-and-done last year. Now they bring in NT Suh to improve the run defense, but the Dolphins rank #27 in rush defense, allowing 142 yards per game. There are still a lot of holes on this Miami team and one gets the sense that the wrong people are in charge, from the GM to the coach. The Dolphins are on a 1-6 ATS run, 2-5 ATS at home, and 0-5 ATS against the AFC. Rival Buffalo is in town with a talented all-around team for new coach Rex Ryan, a more known coaching commodity. This D-line for the Bills is expensive -- and talented, leading the NFL in sacks the last two seasons. Ryan is a defensive guy and even the offense looks better, ranked fourth in points (29.5 ppg), just behind the Patriots and just ahead of the mighty Packers. Buffalo is on a 6-2 ATS run, 4-0 ATS after a loss. The wrong team is favored in this divisional showdown, so take the points on Buffalo.

Teddy Covers

Atlanta/ Dallas Under 44.5

The Dallas Cowboys are the antithesis of the up-tempo offensive approach to the 2015 NFL. Through their first two games, Dallas has averaged an offensive snap every 32.8 seconds, ranked #31 in the NFL in pace ratings. They ranked dead last in the NFL in pace last year. This is not a team primed to push the tempo, regardless of circumstances, which makes perfect sense. The Cowboys starters are as good as any in the NFL, but they lack quality depth at numerous positions due to their salary cap limitations. So it makes perfect sense for Dallas to try to protect those starters as much as possible. Running fewer plays does that, especially over the course of a full season.

But, as we all know, the Cowboys are riddled with high profile offensive injuries right now. Tony Romo is out for a couple of months, leading receiver Dez Bryant is out, and tight end Jason Witten is very questionable to suit up here. That leaves Brandon Weeden behind center and the likes of Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley as his primary downfield weapons. But the Cowboys offensive line is full healthy and still an elite level unit. Atlanta’s run defense is a long way from being elite. We can expect a slow paced, methodical, ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’ look from the Cowboys offense this week, with lots of Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden between the tackles. That’s no recipe for an Over!

The Falcons are 2-0 to the Under this year, thanks to a defense that has been better than projected and an offense that has lacked consistency. We’ve seen this Cowboys defense control the line of scrimmage against both the Giants and Eagles, and their secondary has been extraordinary at avoiding big plays. That’s bad news for the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones duo. Their big play weapon at RB, speedster Tevin Coleman, has already been ruled out this week, and the receiving corps other than Jones has looked rather limited thusfar. Look for a slow pace throughout and big plays on offense to be few and far between, setting the stage for what should be a low scoring affair.

SPORTS WAGERS

CLEVELAND -3½ over Oakland

Oakland takes that dreaded trip from the West Coast to play an early game on the East Coast. The Raiders will also play a defense that has held all wideouts to under 62 yards. Cleveland’s defense can play. They did a good job against both the Jets and Tennessee and aside from a poor second half against the Jets, Cleveland has been very good in the six other quarters they’ve played. Cleveland hung with the Jets in the first half but five turnovers eventually did them in. Josh McCown is cleared from his concussion protocol and has been named the starter. This will be the weakest secondary the Browns have faced yet. QB’s have completed 72% of their passes against the Raiders for an eye-popping 653 yards. The Browns also have the luxury of having a little tape on the Raiders doing good things last week.

Oakland scored 37 points against the same Baltimore defense that held Peyton Manning to no offensive touchdowns in Week 1. David Carr was slinging the rock all over the place and hitting his targets right in the numbers. It was an attention grabbing performance by the Ravens and one that many witnessed since it was just one of three games in the late afternoon package last Sunday. Instantly, the 3½ points being offered here against Cleveland look appealing and it sticks out. Had the Raiders been playing in Cleveland in Week 2 after being buried by Cinci in Week 1, the 3½ points would not stick out, nor would they look as appealing. What sticks out to us, however, is that the Raiders have been home for two games and have allowed 33 points against in each. In fact, the Raiders have allowed a league worst average of 445 yards against. Nobody is talking about that. The market sees a great effort and comeback last week against Baltimore. To entice bettors even more, the oddsmakers have added that “hook” on a key number (3). We say, “Buyer beware”.

SEATTLE -14½ over Chicago

The Bears were hoping for a strong start after the schedule came out and they got two of their toughest opponents – Green Bay and Arizona – at home. Chicago had a perfect game plan for Green Bay. The Packers offense had just four series through three quarters thanks to impressive ball control by the Bears but Chicago still lost. In Week 2, the Bears gave up 48 points at home to the Cardinals. That’s the real Bears’ squad. Now Jimmy Clausen, the proud owner of half a skull, gets the call. The Bears play with the same amount of urgency that Adam Sandler puts into his film roles. Don’t be surprised to see Clausen just amble out onto the field in cargo shorts and demand to hand the ball off to Rob Schneider. The Bears offense is a joke but that’s not the worst of it. The Bears defense is air. You can go right through it, as a ghost would a wall. They are not there.

Last year the Bears were crumbling under “QB guru” Marc Trestman. Turns out that hiring a lame CFL coach isn’t the unorthodox masterstroke the Bears thought it was so this year they turned to John Fox. You all know John Fox. He’s the guy that had Peyton Manning as his QB and screwed that up. Now he has Jimmy Clausen. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 29½ points over UMass this week in college football. This is a bigger mismatch. If the Irish are 30, then the Seahawks should be 45.

The Seahawks are hungry. They are 0-2 and they’re in a foul mood. That freak Pete Carroll has no mercy on anyone. If the score is 48-0, he’ll run the two minute drill like he’s losing. A focused Seahawks’ team could not have handpicked a riper opponent. An opponent that is lazy, flat and uninspired. Pencil us in.

San Diego +116 over MINNESOTA

We played against the Vikings last week and probably should have known better to not trust the Lions on the road after they blew a 21-3 lead against these Chargers in Week 1. Coincidentally, both these teams have something in common this year in that they both played the Lions and won. Still, the Chargers other game was on the road in Cinci while the Vikes other game was in San Fran. San Diego has played well in two games, holding Cinci to just 24 points. The 28 points the Chargers allowed to Detroit is a bit misleading, as a couple of SD turnovers led directly to 14 points. Philip Rivers is hitting his targets. He already has thrown four TD’s while passing for nearly 650 yards. River is completing 81% of his passes and has not thrown a pick.

This is the third straight week we’re fading the Vikes. We don’t like Teddy Bridgewater’s style and we don’t like the way his balls thrown wobble all over the place. The Vikes have been involved in two misleading scores thus far. In Week 1 in San Fran, Minnesota lost 20-3. That’s a flattering score, as the 49ers probably could have scored twice that. In fact, San Fran outgained the Vikes by 160 yards and had 25 first downs. In Week 2, the Vikes defeated the Lions 26-16 but the Lions had more first downs and turned the ball over three times. The Vikes won because they were able to run the ball and because a couple of Lions fumbles landed in their hands while their own fumbles landed in their hands also. (A.P. lost one of his two fumbles on the Lions' 11-yard line, but managed to recover the other one, and had a third fumble on the goal line nullified because of an offside penalty that kept the Lions from taking the ball). Teddy Bridgewater had a mere 151 yards last week. From where we sit, San Diego is superior in every way. It’s highly unlikely that the Vikes are going to be able to pile up rushing yards on the Bolts like they did against the Lions. It’s also highly unlikely that Bridgewater has a good game. We’ve seen the Vikes play two weak opponents and get overwhelmed against one. We’re not even sure they were the better team against Detroit either. Just a few stops by the Bolts defense figures to be enough against a Vikes offense that can easily be contained and that can run into serious trouble. We also like San Diego's mentality in the first two weeks. Combine it all and it’s enough to step in.

Indianapolis -3½ over TENNESSEE

Betting or fading the teams that played on Sunday and Monday nights is rarely a bad idea. We cannot overstate enough how much exposure those four teams get and how there is always a reaction. This week’s donkey is the Indianapolis Colts, a team that was supposed to put up as many points as the Eagles and cruise to an easy division win and a good chance to play in the Super Bowl. Indy’s Week 1 loss to Buffalo alarmed nobody, as the Bills were pegged as a strong team that could be very difficult to beat this year and besides, that game was at the Ralph, where Buffalo always plays tough. The betting world was all primed to see Indy respond against the New York Jets on Monday. Respond they did by looking worse. The Colts couldn’t move five yards in the first half while Andrew Luck was getting pressured all night. Now the Colts are the #32 scoring team in the NFL and everyone is jumping off. We jumped off them last week (actually we were never on that wagon anyway) but are happy to jump on them this week. You see, in the NFL, as we like to say, the best time to jump on is when everyone is jumping off. This line is a serious overreaction to Indy losing at home to the Jets in front of millions of viewers. Let us remind you that the Colts played Tennessee twice last year. In the first game, Indy was a 7½-point choice and won 41-17. In the second game in Tennessee, the Colts were once again a 7½-point choice in the final game of the season. Indy was playing for nothing, as they had the Division locked up, yet they still were a 7½-point choice and won 27-10.

Is there really that much difference between these two from last year to this year? We think not. The Colts are pretty much the exact same team with more offensive weapons while the Titans are a nothing team with a rookie QB. Again, the Colts were a 7½-point choice both games last year and when it counted most they destroyed the Titans by 24 points. Now off to a 0-2 start and being seen as dregs on Monday Night Football, the Colts are just 3½-points here. That’s an underlay. Andrew Luck is not having a pleasant week. He’s already being bombarded by the media to explain what is wrong. Luck is a gamer. He has the “it” factor along with his talents. He wants to win and he doesn’t just talk the talk. Luck talks with his performance and there hasn’t been a week in his career that calls for a better performance than this upcoming week. We’ve been down on the Colts for two years, citing them as one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. For the first time in two years, the Colts are underpriced based on one performance. This Indianapolis team is great at one thing. That one thing is that they beat up on weak teams. The Titans will likely feel the wrath of Indy’s frustrations here.

HOUSTON -6½ over Tampa Bay

6½ is not typically a number we like to lay because it’s one of those numbers (like 2½) that often appear appealing when taking a favorite. However, we’re going to make an exception here because Houston’s stock is low, very low. The Texans have stunk it up in both weeks so far. In Week 1 against K.C., they fell behind by a crooked score early and never recovered and last week in Carolina, they never had a lead and lost by seven, 24-17. In both games, the Texans scored a late garbage TD when they were down 14 to make it look a lot more respectable that it was. Texas has not been close in two weeks and the entire betting world knows it. Now they’re being asked to spot 6½-points to a team that won as a 10-point pooch last week.

If you hadn’t noticed the Buccaneers before last week, we’re pretty sure you all took notice after Week 2, especially if you’re still alive in a Survivor Pool. We’d even go out on a limb and suggest that this take-back on the Bucs may have stuck out when you first glanced at this week’s lines. So, this is one of those classic buy low, sell high scenarios. One would likely have a hard time finding someone in love with this favorite. Tampa went into New Orleans last week and went wire to wire with #1 draft pick Jameis Winston being efficient and not throwing a pick. We put no weight on that victory. The Saints were downright awful. New Orleans was dropping easy passes and fumbling at key times. It was a shameful performance. Houston won’t be as accommodating. The Texans are in a foul mood. Their season could end after Week 3 should they lose this one. They will come in hungry as a pack of wolves and chomping to get at Winston. We’ve seen Winston perform when the heat is on and it’s not a pretty sight. Pressure Winston and he’ll make big mistakes and he’ll make the same ones over and over. The Texans are 0-2 but their rushing defense has been solid, which is another key here. Don't let Tampa's 26-19 victory over New Orleans last week make you forget the 42 points that Tennessee dropped on the Buccaneers in Week 1. Last week in their win, the Bucs had less first downs than the Saints, they still turned the ball over twice and Winston had under 200 yards passing. Tampa won last week because the Saints were more putrid than they were. Plug your nose and play the chalk.

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Minnesota Vikings.

Edges - Vikings: 7-1 ATS last nine non-conference games; and 11-3 ATS home off division home game. Chargers: QB Phillip Rivers 0-4 SUATS in his NFL career as a visitor in this series. With San Diego playing in a 10 AM body clock start for the 2nd week in a row, we recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.

BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NFL PICK (Vikings -1)

I still think we are seeing the Vikings undervalued due to that ugly loss against the 49ers on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was a bad matchup for Minnesota and they clearly didn't give San Francisco the respect they deserved, as they were outplayed on both sides of the ball. The Vikings responded with a 26-16 home win over the Lions, behind a big game from Adrian Peterson and a strong showing from the defense. I expect a similar outcome against the Chargers. Peterson should be in line for another big day against this San Diego defense, which awful against he run last year and not much better so far in 2015. While the Chargers only allowed 69 yards on the ground in Week 1 against the Lions, that was because Detroit only ran it 16 times. Their poor run defense showed it's ugly head in Week 2 against the Bengals, as they allowed 175 yards on 36 attempts. I've really been impressed with Bridgewater going back to the end of last season. Vikings have won 5 of 6 at home with the only loss coming by 3-points to Green Bay. Too much value to pass up with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home. Give me the Vikings -1!

NFL DUNKEL

New Orleans @ Carolina

Game 469-470
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
129.023
Carolina
130.115
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ New England

Game 471-472
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
130.399
New England
140.208
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 14
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+10); Over

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 473-474
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.820
Baltimore
138.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-2 1/2); Over

Oakland @ Cleveland

Game 475-476
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
125.000
Cleveland
126.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

Game 477-478
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
136.884
Tennessee
124.944
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 12
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-3); Under

Atlanta @ Dallas

Game 479-480
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
130.935
Dallas
137.601
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 481-482
September 27, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
129.126
Arizona
136.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6); Over

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

Game 461-462
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
134.193
St. Louis
136.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
48
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+2); Over

Chicago @ Seattle

Game 483-484
September 27, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.860
Seattle
138.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 12
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 15
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+15); Over

San Diego @ Minnesota

Game 463-464
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
134.456
Minnesota
131.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+2 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ Miami

Game 485-486
September 27, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.476
Miami
136.415
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-2 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 465-466
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
120.508
Houston
132.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6 1/2); Under

Denver @ Detroit

Game 487-488
September 27, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
138.897
Detroit
133.350
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Philadelphia @ NY Jets

Game 467-468
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
131.974
NY Jets
135.931
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 4
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-2 1/2); Under


Kansas City @ Green Bay

Game 489-490
September 28, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
135.399
Green Bay
139.976
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+7); Over

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Sunday - Sept, 27

Pittsburgh at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 8-1 OVER in non-conf games
St Louis: 50-31 OVER in non-conf games

San Diego at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 8-1 OVER in non-conf games
Minnesota: 8-2 ATS off a division game

Tampa Bay at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-11 ATS against AFC South division
Houston: 3-11 ATS off a road game

Philadelphia at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 15-5 UNDER in road games off a home loss by 10 or more points
New York: 71-97 ATS off a road game

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 1-8 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 26-12 ATS at home off a non-conf game

Jacksonville at New England, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 4-14 ATS in the first half of the season
New England: 36-19 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Baltimore: 6-0 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses

Oakland at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
Cleveland: 39-23 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-0 ATS vs division opponents
Tennessee: 2-10 ATS at home

Atlanta at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 4-22 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Dallas: 12-3 ATS as an underdog

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 1-5 ATS off a loss of 10 or more points
Arizona: 12-3 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Chicago at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 26-13 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses
Seattle: 6-0 UNDER off a road loss

Buffalo at Miami, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 8-1 UNDER as an underdog
Miami: 6-0 UNDER off a loss of 6 or less points

Denver at Detroit, 8:30 ET
Denver: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival
Detroit: 6-0 UNDER after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

NFL

Week 3

Sunday's games

Steelers (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)-- Pitt gets RB Bell back from 2-game suspension just in time to face St Louis defense that allowed 182 rushing yards in terrible loss at Washington last week. Rams are 2-6 last two years in games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost three of last four vs Steelers, with all four games decided by 10+ points. Since '07, Pitt is 15-24 vs spread in non-divisional road tilts- they're 13-6 since '13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Steelers are 13-25 on third down so far, with seven plays of 20+ yards on 3rd down. Under is 10-7 in Steeler road games since '13. Rams badly need a RB (Mason/Gurley) to become a playmaker.

Chargers (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)-- Minnesota got Peterson untracked (134 rushing yards, 58 receiving) in win last week; Vikings are 12-6 since '12 in games where spread was 3 or less. San Diego heads east for 2nd week in row; Bolts are 2-4 at Minnesota, with last win in '93- they are 12-7-1 as road underdogs since '12, 8-13-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers trailed first two games by 11-8 points at half, but won opener after rallying back from 21-3 deficit. Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Viking home games. Former Charger coach Turner is now OC in Minnesota. San Diego turned ball over three times in both games thus far.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Texans (0-2)-- In two losses, Houston dropped back to pass 111 times, ran ball only 44, not a good ratio; they're 8-33 on third down, have been outscored 37-12 in 1st half of games. Mallett was better last week than Hoyer was in opener, but still completed less than half his passes. Texans are 6-4-1 as home faves since 2011. Tampa Bay is 6-3 as road dog under Smith after upset win last week in Superdome; since '08, Bucs are 16-11-1 as non-divisional road underdogs. Bucs are just 8-28 on 3rd down; they lost TE Seferien-Jenkins, which will hamper passing game. Texans had very high expectations; this is a must win for them.

Eagles (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Gang Green is first team since '92 Steelers to force ten turnovers (+8) in first two games; Philly opened -2.5 but lined moved five points after Monday nite game. Eagles won last nine series games, with six of last eight wins by 7+ points. Jets are 1-6 since '11 in game following an upset win. Philly is 20-10 as a road dog, since '07, but Murray has 11 yards on 21 carries so far-- Sam Bradford is now 18-32-1 as an NFL QB, Eagles are 5-23 on 3rd down. Eagles have not scored first half TD yet (outscored 26-3 in 1st half); they have five turnovers, only three TDs. AFC East teams are 4-1-1 vs spread outside division, NFC East teams are 1-3.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)-- Brees has bruised rotator cuff, huge problem for a Saints squad that allowed 9.6/8.1 ypa in first two games, losing at home to rookie QB last week. Carolina won four of last six series games, winning last three here by 8-4-31 points. Six of last eight series totals were 44+. Divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread so far in NFL this season. Since '09, Saints are 4-10-1 as dogs on road. Carolina is 8-2-2 in last dozen games as home favorite, 9-2 in last 11 division games as HF. Panthers held first two foes to 50% (49-98) passing, 8-31 on third down. Saints lost field position battle in first two games, by 8 yards in each game.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Patriots (2-0)-- Since 2012, Pats are 1-8 as double digit fave; they are 26-19 as favorite since '09, and won six in row vs Jaguars, with last series loss in '98 playoffs. Jax lost last six visits here, with five losses by 11+ points-- they're 4-7-1 as double digit dogs under Bradley. Patriots scored eight TDs on 21 drives to start season; they've also allowed 813 yards, seven TDs in two games- hard to cover huge spread with porous defense. Jags are just 8-26 on 3rd down, scored a lone FG in second half of two games, but they outgained first two opponents, so thats good sign. New England covered four of its last five games before its bye.

Bengals (2-0) @ Ravens (0-2)-- Cincy won four of last five series games, but lost four of last five visits here, winning 23-16 in LY's opener. Bengals gained 7.9/8.0 ypa in two meetings LY; since '07, they're 18-4-1 as underdog of 3 or less points. Cincy is +3 in turnovers (5-2), +6 in sacks (6-0), scoring seven TD in 21 drives to start season. Ravens were 6-24 on third down in opening losses by 6-4 points; they're 9-1 in last 10 home openers (7-3 vs spread), 8-3 as faves in home openers- they had three TDs, one FG in seven red zone drives vs Cincy LY, getting swept by 7-3 points. Sine 2007, Ravens are 7-13-1 as home faves in divisional games.

Raiders (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)-- McCown was cleared to practice, will start here for Cleveland; they've won six of last eight games vs Oakland, winning last three at home by 6-3-10 points. Raiders lost four of last five road openers, losing last two by total of nine points- they're 5-2 as underdog in road openers. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-4-1 vs spread so far this season. Oakland defense allowed seven TDs, six FG tries on 22 drives this season; last two years, Oakland is 7-3 as non-divisional road underdog. Since 2008, Browns are 7-15-2 as a home favorite; since '10, they're 9-14-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.

Colts (0-2) @ Titans (1-1)-- This is home opener for QB Mariota; Titans covered seven of last eight as underdog in home openers, but are just 3-10-1 as home dog overall the last three years. Tennessee has six TDs on its seven red zone drives, a good sign; they faced neophyte QB in each of first two games, step up in class here vs Luck, but Colts turned ball over eight times, have only three TDs in first two games- they're 0-2 for 3rd time in last five years, but 12-1 in last 13 games vs Titans, winning last seven, four by 8+ points. Indy won last three visits here by 6-3-7 points; since '08, Colts are 19-9-2 as road favorites. Indy traveling on short week, are -7 in turnovers already.

Falcons (2-0) @ Cowboys (2-0)-- New Dallas QB Weeden is 5-16 as NFL starter; 20 of 21 games were with Cleveland. Fully expect Cowboys to run ball, as Bryant, Witten both hurt; since '10, Pokes are 13-27 vs spread at home, with dogs 30-10. Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter of both but won first two games anyway; Falcons lost four of last five visits to Dallas (won n '03); their last visit was in '09. Last 2+ years, Dallas is 10-5 in games with spread of 3 or less points- Atlanta is 5-10 in its games like that. Romo hadn't been practicing on Wednesdays; Weeden has had more reps with first team offense than most QBs would've in his situation. Under is 7-2 in last nine Atlanta road games.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)-- Arizona is 14-3 SU at home under Arians, 8-2-1 as a home favorite; they scored 79 points in first two games, with 10 TDs on 19 drives, and thats with an even turnover ratio- they're 10-19 on third down, outscored foes 37-12 in second half. Cardinals are 2-9 in last 11 games vs 49ers, going 2-4 in last six played here- they had only one TD in five red zone drives vs SF LY. Last week, Redbirds ran opening kick back for TD, later scored defensive TD. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdog; favorites are 12-4-1 vs spread in their last 17 road games. Since '10, 49ers are 6-9 vs spread in division road games.

Bears (0-2) @ Seahawks (0-2)-- Clausen (1-10 as NFL starter) gets start here, just his second start since 2010. Bears allowed 79 points in first two games;foes have 10 TDs on 16 drives- they also allowed defensive TD/KR score. Since '11, Bears are 8-14-1 as road underdogs, Seattle is 0-3 since last home game; they held lead in 4th quarter in all three games. Chancellor ended holdout, will bolster Seattle's D that allowed 11 pass plays of 20+ yards in first two games, 2nd-most in NFL. Seahawks won/covered last six home openers; under is 11-2-1 in last 14. Seattle is 6-5 as HF last three seasons. Over is 18-6 in Chicago road games last three years.

Bills (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1)-- Both teams off disappointing losses after promising wins in opener. Home side won six of last eight series games; Bills won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four visits here. Miami is 7-12 in last 19 tries as favorite of 3 or less points; they won last three home openers-- since 2007, Miami is 10-24 vs spread as home favorite (5-7 last 12 in division). Bills are 3-8 in last 11 road openers (Ryan lost his last four with Jets); since '11, Buffalo is 10-17-1 as a road dog, 5-7 in AFC East games. Dolphins trailed both games at the half so far; they've run ball only 34 times for 116 yards, while dropping back to pass 83 times, not a good ratio.

Broncos (2-0) @ Lions (0-2)-- Detroit is 0-2, Stafford is already banged-up and the Packers are already two games ahead in NFC North. Detroit won 45-10/44-7 in last two games with Denver, after losing six of first nine series games. Broncos are 3-2 in Motor City. Lions scored 36 ppg in winning last four home openers; they are 16-7-1 vs spread in last 24 home openers, 8-1-1 in last ten as favorite- over is 5-0 in their last five home openers. Broncos scored a defensive TD and allowed one in both games so far; they averaged 3.4/5.0 ypa, not good, but seven takeaways (+5) erased all that. Lions ran ball 32 times in first two games, dropped back 85; with a banged-up QB, they need to run ball better.


Monday's game
Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)-- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

CAPPERS ACCESS

Vikings
Eagles
Seahawks
Lions

Sunday's Week 3 NFL betting cheat sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month of September, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in those games.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)

* Wideout Julio Jones has been limited in practice this week due to a sore hamstring, but he has been unstoppable in the first two games, scoring twice while tying to the league lead with 22 receptions and ranking second with 276 yards.

* Dallas turned in a superb performance in limiting Philadelphia to 226 yards of total offense and seven yards rushing behind a 14-tackle effort from linebacker Sean Lee, who was named the NFC's Defensive Player of the Week.


Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 45.5)

* The Colts have gone 7-0 straight up and against the spread in the previous seven meetings with the Titans.

* Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota will receive his first taste of AFC South play, as the second overall pick came back to earth following a scintillating four-touchdown performance in the season opener with two fumbles in a 28-14 loss to Cleveland. When asked how he can improve, Mariota matter-of-factly stated that he needed to "keep two hands on the football."


Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 42.5)

* Oakland has lost 11 straight (5-6 ATS) and 19 of its last 20 on the road (9-10-1 ATS).

* The Cleveland Browns turn back to Josh McCown as they search for their second consecutive victory. Cleveland posted a 28-14 triumph over Tennessee last week behind Johnny Manziel, who threw two touchdown passes for the first time in his brief career as McCown was sidelined with a concussion.


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 44.5)

* Andy Dalton enters Week 3 as the only quarterback in the league who has started each of his team's first two games and has yet to be sacked or throw an interception.

* Visiting Baltimore in September has not been a pleasant experience of late. Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in those games.


Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5, 48.5)

* Blake Bortles could be missing one of his biggest weapons with running back Denard Robinson (knee) questionable, but rookie T.J. Yeldon is ready to step up. The Alabama product took on the extra workload with 25 carries in last week’s 23-20 triumph over Miami and managed 75 yards.

* Tom Brady has yet to throw an interception in a league-high 91 pass attempts and threw for seven touchdowns in leading the Patriots to wins over Pittsburgh and Buffalo to begin the campaign. “He has high expectations and high goals for himself,” New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels told reporters. “He knows that it's going to take a tremendous amount of work to continue performing at the level that he wants to play at, and he deserves a lot of credit for that.”


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-8, 42.5)

* A bit of anomaly for the Saints as quarterback Drew Brees will miss his first game in his 15-year NFL career, meaning Luke McCown has been thrust into the starting role. According to a tweet from Sports Insights, McCown is 2-7 ATS in his NFL career when starting under center.

* The Under has gone 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Carolina between the Saints and Panthers, including 2014 and 2013.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2, 46)

* The Eagles are off to an 0-2 start SU and ATS, have struggled mightily on offense and those problems could be compounded if running back DeMarco Murray is unable to play in the crucial contest. Murray participated in practice Friday but, according to Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer, "has to pass a more strenuous session Saturday".

* New York shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts to move to 2-0 and it could have a field day against the Eagles, who are last in the NFL in rushing with just 70 yards in two games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-7, 40.5)

* Jameis Winston has been sacked seven times and lost a fumble in two games, but the offensive line is confident it can protect the young quarterback against Watt and company. “We have a plan,” right tackle Gosder Cherilus told reporters. “Hopefully, the plan will be good enough. If it’s not, we’re going to have to do what we’ve got to do. That’s the game – show up, be at your best, and hopefully your best will be good enough.”

* The Texans are playing their first home game since switching the field at NRG Stadium from natural grass to an artificial surface for the remainder of the season.


San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 44.5)

* The Chargers' primary opponent has been themselves as they have turned the ball over six times - second only to Indianapolis (eight).

* Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is completing 74 percent of his passes (37-for-50) but has thrown for just 384 yards with a touchdown and an interception in two games this season. The second-year quarterback has flourished at home, recording 10 scores (nine passing, one rushing) in his last five starts.


Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (-1, 48)

* The Steelers have led the way in two-point conversions this season, hitting on all three attempts including two last week versus the 49ers. Games with two or more successful 2-point converts are 21-1-1 Over/Under, for a 95.4 percent Over rate. Oh yeah. All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell returns from a two-game suspension Sunday.

* After passing for 297 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a score against Seattle, offseason acquisition Nick Foles took a step backward versus Washington, going 17-of-32 for 150 yards and a TD. The running game has stalled while awaiting the debut of first-round pick Todd Gurley (knee), as receiver Tavon Austin leads the team with 57 rushing yards.


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 45)

* After rushing for a career-high 168 yards against Minnesota, Carlos Hyde was slowed by a leg contusion and a head injury versus the Steelers, but he is expected to play on Sunday.

* Arizona has traditionally struggled to run the ball but David Johnson showed such a burst during his franchise-best 108-yard kick return for a touchdown last week that coach Bruce Arians stressed that he'd grant the rookie a larger role on Sunday.


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 41.5)

* Plagued by a nagging hamstring injury, LeSean McCoy returned to practice on Thursday and is prepared to battle both the Dolphins and possible dehydration when he takes the field on Sunday. The electric back rolled up 89 yards on the ground and added three receptions for the second straight week to lead Buffalo, which puts its third-ranked rushing attack (153.5 yards per game) against Miami's 27th-ranked rush defense (142 yards per game).

* The favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings between the two AFC East rivals. Books opened the Dolphins as 2.5-point home favorites, but that is now -2.5.


Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5, 43.5)

* The absences of Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery will surely put more pressure on Matt Forte, who ranks third in the NFL in both rushing (202 yards) and yards from scrimmage (271).

* The Seahawks’ slow start is especially surprising after playing in the last two Super Bowls, as their once-vaunted defense has allowed 61 points through two games. There’s help on the way, as safety Kam Chancellor ended his holdout this week, but it’s unclear whether or not he will play Sunday.


Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

* The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

* Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in a season-opening defeat at San Diego and trailed the entire way against Minnesota as quarterback Matthew Stafford was hit early and often, requiring X-rays on his ribs and chest afterward.

Gridiron Angles - Week 3


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 12-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since 2000 as a dog vs an opponent that allows a completion rate of more than 65.2 percent.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bills are 0-10 ATS (-17.45 ppg) since 2010 on the road as a dog after a home game where they loss and failed to cover.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Tom Brady is 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 2009 when they are favored by more than a TD after a game where they threw for at least 340 yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 17-0 OU (7.3 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite after a road win that went over the total by more than seven points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-10 OU (-14.80 ppg) since Oct 24, 2004 as a dog off a game as an away dog of more than three points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-11 OU when the line is within 3.5 of pick vs a divisional opponent in their first match-up of the season.

NFL DFS STAT OF THE WEEK:

-- Since 2012, the Seahawks have played 12 games coming off a game where Marshawn Lynch was given no more than 15 carries. In these games Lynch has actually exceeded his average workload, as he has received 20 carries per game, and has produced a strong 97 rushing yards per game.