Monday 9/28/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
Good luck on all your plays.

When not viewing the service plays.
Make sure to enjoy the rest of what the RX has to offer.

First time here at the RX.
Make sure to visit the Newbies Room
Click here to go there now

NFL TRENDS

Monday, September 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 0) - 9/28/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL TRENDS

September 28

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

NFL DUNKEL

Kansas City @ Green Bay

Game 489-490
September 28, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
135.399
Green Bay
139.976
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+7); Over

NFL TRENDS

Monday - Sept, 28

Kansas City at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Kansas City: 43-26 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
Green Bay: 15-7 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)-- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

Preview: Kansas City at Green Bay
When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, September 28, 2015
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

After absorbing a crushing last-second home loss to future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, the Kansas City Chiefs must try to bounce back against arguably the NFL's best quarterback at one of the league's toughest venues. Awaiting the Chiefs on Monday night are Aaron Rodgers and the unbeaten Green Bay Packers, who have won nine in a row at Lambeau Field.

“We have a home-field advantage that’s growing," Rodgers said. "We’ve started fast as well at home the last couple of years, so we’ve been able to make teams one-dimensional on the other side.” Green Bay must avoid an emotional letdown after scoring 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to knock off the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 last Sunday. Kansas City was on the verge of a 2-0 start before allowing a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute, with the game-winner coming on the return of a fumble by Jamaal Charles. "It was pretty simple," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "Five turnovers and 70 yards on penalties. ... We'll feel this one."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Packers -6.5. O/U: 49

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-1): Charles had a big game with 125 yards on 21 carries but it went for naught after his second lost fumble of the game snatched a victory away from Kansas City, which has gone 18 consecutive games without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Quarterback Alex Smith followed up a strong opener with two interceptions against Denver and has yet to establish much of a rapport with Jeremy Maclin, who had nine catches for 109 yards in the first two games. The Chiefs are tied for second in the league with eight sacks and must try to exploit the absence of offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, who will miss his second game in a row.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-0): Rodgers lost his top target when wideout Jordy Nelson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and saw Eddie Lacy exit last week's game with an ankle injury, but the starting running back returned to practice on a limited basis Friday and would not rule out playing. James Starks fills in admirably for Lacy, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries against Seattle and may need another big effort with wide receiver Davante Adams also questionable with an ankle injury. Rodgers has averaged only 219 yards passing in the first two games but has five scoring passes versus zero interceptions.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Chiefs have won six of the last seven meetings, including a 19-14 victory in 2011 that ended Green Bay's perfect 13-0 start to the season.

2. Rodgers does not have an interception over 545 attempts in last 18 home games (playoffs included), throwing 43 TDs passes in that span.

3. Chiefs LB Justin Houston had two sacks last week, giving him 18 in the past 12 games.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Chiefs 16

Kansas City at Green Bay: QB Aaron Rodgers will try and extend an NFL-record interception-less streak at home to 19 games against a Chiefs secondary that will look to succeed where the decimated Legion of Boom failed. Despite the absence of top target Jordy Nelson, Rodgers continues to fire on all cylinders, but faces an improved KC defense fortified by emerging rookie corner Marcus Peters. Sack master Justin Houston gets to work against a vulnerable Packers offensive line, which makes this Monday night game very interesting.

Monday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Odds
by Alan Matthews

Have you seen the college football and NFL schedules this week? They both leave a lot to be desired. Thus, I would argue that Monday night's matchup between Kansas City and Green Bay is the best of the NFL games in Week 3. Yes, I know Falcons-Cowboys features a pair of 2-0 teams, and I previewed that here at Doc's, but that game isn't all that great with Brandon Weeden starting for Dallas at QB.

I am interested to see how both the Chiefs and Packers play here. Kansas City (1-1) comes off probably the most crushing loss of the early season for any team. But that was on Thursday in Week 2, so the Chiefs had plenty of time to prepare for Aaron Rodgers and Co. Green Bay (2-0) looks like clearly the best team in the NFC, and the Packers are going to run away with the North Division again. But might the Pack be flat here off a huge win last Sunday night against Seattle? I took the Packers and gave the points in that one, so that was a win. The Packers are now +425 Super Bowl favorites at 5Dimes.


Chiefs at Packers Betting Story Lines

Kansas City's Jamaal Charles is one of my favorite running backs in the NFL, and he's one of the best. And in Week 2 against Denver, Charles had 21 rushes for 125 yards and a touchdown. However, he also lost two fumbles. The final one lost the game. Denver tied the score at 24 on a Peyton Manning 19-yard pass to Emmanuel Sanders with 36 seconds left. For some reason, the Chiefs opted to not throw or take a knee on their first down following the kickoff and touchback. Instead, they handed off to Charles, I suppose thinking maybe he breaks a big gain and then you try to throw to get into field-goal range. But Charles was stripped, and it was returned 21 yards by the Broncos' Bradley Roby for the winning score. Just a stunner.

So, what was Chiefs coach Andy Reid thinking? "So we were going to try to bust one and if we could get within a field-goal shot - you know, you get to the minus-40 or plus-40 - you have an opportunity for maybe a shot there. The way (Charles) was running, he was running great and I thought that was a good play. Didn't work out so good." Reid has been criticized for some clock management issues in the past. That was definitely not the right call.

Green Bay got payback for choking away last season's NFC title game in Seattle by beating the visiting Seahawks 27-17 in Week 2. Now there's no way a possible title game rematch won't be at Lambeau Field with the Packers already holding a two-game lead over Seattle and the tiebreaker. The Seahawks led this one 17-16 with under 10 minutes left before Aaron Rodgers hit Richard Rodgers on a 5-yard TD and then converted the 2-point try. Mason Crosby's field goal with 1:56 left was the clincher.

The Pack won that game despite losing No. 1 running back Eddie Lacy to a sprained right ankle on just his third carry. He wouldn't return. James Starks filled in well, carrying 20 times for 95 yards. It's still not clear if Lacy will play Monday, but having that extra day can only help.

Last meeting between these teams was a 19-14 Chiefs home win on Dec. 18, 2011. I remember that game so well. Green Bay was 13-0, had won 19 straight games overall and was an 11-point favorite. Aaron Rodgers was 17-for-35 for 235 yards and a touchdown, and he ran 8 yards for another touchdown with 2:12 left in the game. But the Packers, who were without leading receiver Greg Jennings and leading rusher Starks due to injuries, were unable to recover the onside kick. Kyle Orton was the Chiefs' QB then, and they were only 5-8 entering the game.

Kansas City remains without cornerback Sean Smith, whose three-game suspension for substance abuse expires after this game.

Chiefs at Packers Betting Odds and Trends

The Packers are 7.5-point favorites (+120) with the total at 49. Green Bay is -310 on the moneyline and Kansas City +255. On the alternate lines, the Packers are -7 (+100) and -6.5 (-120). The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread this season and 2-0 "over/under." The Packers are 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U.

Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its past five on Monday. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a loss. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a win. It is 1-4 ATS in its past five on Monday. The under is 5-1 in K.C.'s past six on Monday. It is 5-2 in its past seven on the road. The over is 8-2 in Green Bay's past 10 in September. It is 7-3 in the Pack's past 10 at home.

Chiefs at Packers Betting Prediction

This is the 50th game in Mike McCarthy's 160-game coaching tenure in which the Packers are favored by a touchdown or more. McCarthy's record of 40-9 as a prohibitive favorite includes 17 victories in the last 18 of those games. The Packers are 4-1 all-time under McCarthy at home on Monday nights.

For Kansas City to have a chance, it has to pressure Rodgers. And the Chiefs are second in the NFL through Week 2 with eight sacks. But they are No. 23 against the pass, allowing 268.0 yards per game. And is this the game a Chiefs receiver finds the end zone? No Chiefs wide receiver has caught a TD pass since the 45-44 wild-card playoff defeat against Indianapolis on Jan. 4, 2014. I say yes.

I have two projections here. At 6.5, I'd take Green Bay. But at 7.5, I'd go Kansas City. Go 'over' the total.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Grand River Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 8:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$3800 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $5000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 BLAZING SAKRA 4/1


# 4 CASIMIR LOW GEAR 2/1


# 5 STIR AND SERVE 9/2


BLAZING SAKRA definitely figures to be the nice horse to beat in this contest. Very likely think these two have a good thing going. Czupa sending the horse out means a very good chance to get the victory. CASIMIR LOW GEAR - This competition could very well be controlled by this gelding. A single look at the avgerage speed fig will prove that. This solid standardbred looks strong considering the high class numbers. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. STIR AND SERVE - Had one of the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the field of horses in his last race. Must use in your plays. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, back this one's chances.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 3:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$3400 - N/W $250 P/S L/5-6 OR P/S IN 2015 $6500 P/C L/S AE: N/W 5 PM LT AE: $5000 CLM W/A AE: N/W 1 PM IN 2015 B ALDRICH JR 1 OVER 5


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 COACH FOX 7/2


# 1 GRACE N CHARLIE 8/5


# 8 PAULA'S BRADY 9/2


If you want a really good play in this one, feast your eyes on COACH FOX. This nice horse will have to be a bet, based on the fantastic driver/trainer win percent. This standardbred will have to be a bet, based on the great driver/trainer return on investment percentage. This standardbred will be greatly helped with Marohn guiding. 21 percent winners the last 30 days. GRACE N CHARLIE - The consortium will always toss in a fine animal from the 1 hole here at Monticello Raceway, definite exotic possibilities. Had one of the strongest TrackMaster SRs of the group in her last affair. Must use in your bets. PAULA'S BRADY - Feel the need for speed, this standardbred has been turning in some exemplary TrackMaster SRs averaging around 80. With a 82 average class rating, this horse has one of the most respectable class advantages in the field of starters.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR ONTARIO BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 EYES THAT TELL 8/1


# 5 R ZOOMING LADY 3/1


# 7 LOLAMO 7/2


I've got to go with EYES THAT TELL particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. I like the jock on this filly - very good chance to win the contest. The speed rating of 71 from her most recent contest looks very good in here. Her 53 average has this filly with among the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures here. R ZOOMING LADY - The class figure of today's contest is much lower than her last race. This filly has been consistently running well in her latest outings. LOLAMO - The speed rating of 67 from his last contest looks solid in here. Trainer has strong win rate (18 percent) at this distance and surface.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 28, 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 QUOTABLE 4/1


# 4 TRINNI HEART 6/1


# 1A I'LL RUN THE SHOW 7/2


QUOTABLE supports the bet in here. Looks very good against this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Recorded a formidable speed figure last time out. TRINNI HEART - Looks solid for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races as of late. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:25pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,800 Class Rating: 73

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 HE'S TAKEN (ML=6/1)
#1 ZENABLE (ML=4/1)
#10 RICK'S PICK (ML=12/1)
#7 TRUE ALL ALONG (ML=10/1)
#9 CLEVER CHAT (ML=10/1)


HE'S TAKEN - The rider/trainer twosome of Diaz and Crumley has a strong return on investment together. This thoroughbred coming off a nice performance in the last month is a strong challenger in my opinion. You have to really like that last race speed figure, 73, which is the best most recent race speed rating of this bunch. ZENABLE - Utilizing this jockey/handler combination is a smart choice. Nemann brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Mount didn't finish in the money in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground down the lane. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the finish line. RICK'S PICK - A campaigner coming back this soon after a solid effort is a good omen. TRUE ALL ALONG - I unquestionably see positive things for this horse right here. CLEVER CHAT - Have to make this colt a serious competitor; he comes off a nice effort on Sep 9th. After the event aboard this animal on Sep 9th, the jockey is going to be in touch with the colt much better. This colt is clearly on the improve with speed figures of 61, 63, 66 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DR. ADVO CAT (ML=3/1), #2 SUNS REFLECTION (ML=8/1),

DR. ADVO CAT - Hard to keep chasing this sort of 'hanger' horse. This chalk horse ran on Aug 22nd and hasn't had a workout after that. Can't really bet on this kind of oft beaten public's top choice. SUNS REFLECTION - Hard to bet this one after not being up front at 1 mile 70 yards and now being put in a race of 6 furlongs. In this type of situation, this mount's inability to close ground in the last event is definitely troubling.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #11 HE'S TAKEN on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
11 with [1,7,9,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
11 with [1,7,9,10] with [1,7,9,10] Total Cost: $12

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
11 with [1,7,9,10] with [1,7,9,10] with [1,7,9,10] Total Cost: $24