[h=1]How to bet every Week 3 pro football game[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This file has been updated to reflect the news of Drew Brees missing this Sunday's game versus Carolina.
LAS VEGAS -- It's been a rollercoaster of a pro football season so far for most bettors.
In Week 1, favorites dominated and so did chalk bettors. In Week 2, it was the underdogs' turn and 'dog bettors rejoiced.
It's interesting to note that after two weeks, favorites and underdogs were split 15-15-1 against the spread (note: this is with grading the Tennessee-Cleveland as closing as a pick-'em). And over/unders were also split at 15-15-2.
The New York Giants' 32-21 win over the Washington Redskins as 3-point home favorites broke the deadlocks and favorites are back on top at 16-15-1 ATS with unders leading 16-15-1.
Week 2
Home: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Favorites: 6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS (TEN-CLE closed pick 'em)
Home dogs: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Double-digit dogs: 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS
Over/unders: 7-8-1
Season to date (including Thursday night)
Home: 20-13 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
Favorites: 18-14 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
Home dogs: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Double-digit dogs: 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS
Over/unders: 15-16-2
I've had an interesting two weeks. As I wrote last week, I wasn't beat up too badly in Week 1 (pretty much breaking even), but then in Week 2, when all those favorites were winning outright -- which would usually mean I'm having a big day -- I squeaked out a profit but not as big as I was hoping.
But that's ancient history as we turn our attention to the Week 3 card. We'll take our normal look at how the public is viewing the matchup, what the wiseguys are thinking and then I'll give my take on each game with either a side or total I like or at least a recommendation for a "pool play" if I don't like the game that much. Best bets will be marked with an asterisk(*) and those are the ones we grade as official plays (though maybe I should count the "pool plays" as those were 8-2 ATS last week!)
Last week: 3-2 ATS on sides, 2-2 on over/unders.
Season: 5-4 ATS on sides, 3-5 on over/unders
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of early Friday morning. The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN Insider's NFL PickCenter, also as of Friday morning.
[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams[/h]Spread: Steelers -1
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Steelers
Public perception: The Steelers are more of a public team to begin with, and their 43-18 rout of the 49ers has them in the good graces of bettors again. The Rams followed up their Week 1 upset of the Seahawks with a public-disappointing loss to the Redskins.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped all over Pittsburgh as a short underdog, but then there were plenty of wiseguys taking St. Louis when it was a short dog. Whichever way the public goes next, the sharps will probably take the points.
Tuley's take: The Rams showed the two faces of Dr. Jekkyl and Mr. Hyde again. They beat the Seahawks and then lose to the Redskins. Well, back at home and facing the Steelers, St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher should be able to convince his team again that they're underdogs even if the line is pick 'em or Pittsburgh is favored, and I expect more of an effort like we saw in Week 1. I'm not sure I like it enough to make it a best bet, but I'll probably be using Rams as a contrarian plays in all my pools.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Rams).
[h=2]San Diego Chargers atMinnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Vikings -2.5
Public consensus pick: 50 percent on both teams
Public perception: The public is split on this game, which makes sense, as most people would say these teams are pretty evenly matched with both teams beating the Lions and losing their other games.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps that like San Diego snapped up the few +3s that were available back on Sunday and are split at 2.5. The Chargers will be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's take: In the NFL Vegas Rankings where I'm a contributor, our panel has the Chargers as a half-point better than the Vikings and made San Diego one of our value plays when it looked like +3 might be more readily available. But even if we can't get that, I like the Chargers to win outright. They outgained the Lions more than the Vikings did, and their loss to the Bengals was better than the Vikings' loss to the 49ers.
The pick: Chargers*
[h=2]Tampa Bay Buccaneers atHouston Texans[/h]Spread: Texans -6.5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Texans
Public perception: This is also mostly a split decision. The public usually sides with the favorite, but with Houston at 0-2, that's hardly a given.
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game was Houston -8.5 before the Texans lost last Sunday to the Panthers and the Bucs upset the Saints in New Orleans. The line was reposted at 7 and the sharps took Tampa Bay +7. The line hasn't budged any since, so it's been pretty split action.
Tuley's take: I've been on the Texans both weeks, so they've let me down. However, I think their defense will cause problems for rookie Jameis Winston. I would look to the under, but the books have made it low at 40.5 (and there's sure to be at least one pick-six or sack-fumble returned for a TD). I might just include Houston in teasers.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans)
[h=2]Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets[/h]Spread: Jets -2
Public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Jets
Public perception: My, how things can change in two weeks. Entering the season, the Eagles were among the most popular teams in the league, while the Jets always have a critical fan base. Now, the Jets are 2-0, the Eagles are 0-2 and the public is overwhelmingly jumping on the Jets' bandwagon.
Wiseguys' view: Philadelphia was -3.5 on the advance line last week, the Westgate reopened on Sunday after its loss to the Cowboys at -2.5. Sharps jumped all over that and bet it to pick-'em. After the Jets' upset of the Colts on Monday Night Football, the line flipped all the way to New York -2.5, where we saw some buyback.
Tuley's take: This does look like a true coin flip of the game. The Eagles do have more talent, but the Jets are playing better. I'll trust that the New York defense will continue the Eagles' offensive woes and keep this game low-scoring, so I'm going with the under.
The pick: Under 46* (pool play: Eagles).
[h=2]New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers[/h]Spread: Panthers -8
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Panthers
Public perception: Earlier in the week, this line opened Carolina -3 at most books and some had -3.5 (and the PickCenter had 70 percent of the Panthers at that number). It was taken off the board Monday when Drew Brees was listed as questionable with his rotator cuff injury. When he was declared out on Friday, books reposted the line between Carolina -7 (Wynn) and -9 (CG Technology). In recent years, New Orleans have been the more public team, but with the Panthers at 2-0 and Saints at 0-2, it's not surprising more bettors are leaning to Carolina (and Brees being out just gives them more reason).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps grabbed the low and high end of the reposted lines on Friday but now the market seems to have settled at Carolina -8. The Panthers undoubtedly will be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's take: I would normally look to play New Orleans here with the added points (even with a backup quarterback), as we often see these games over-adjusted. However, the Saints have been playing so bad on both sides of the ball that these added points aren't enough to lure me in. I was hoping to play the under in this game -- especially if Brees were playing -- but the total has been lowered to 42.5 with him out so I'll pass on that as well.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Saints -- lean on under)
[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Patriots -13.5
Public consensus pick: 76 percent picks Patriots
Public perception: The Patriots are one of the public's favorite teams to bet on; bookies have to beg for bettors to make wagers on the Jaguars. So it's no surprise around three-quarters of the public is on New England, no matter the price.
Wiseguys' view: Double-digit underdogs are one of the most consistent good bets in the NFL over the years, so wiseguys are mostly going to be lined up on Jacksonville at the best number they can get.
Tuley's take: The Patriots don't do well in the role of double-digit home favorites (didn't cover vs. Raiders last year, didn't cover vs. Jets in 2013, went 2-4 ATS in 2012, including outright loss to Cardinals as 13.5-point favorites). I'm also encouraged by the way the Jags stepped up last week against the Dolphins to not only cover but win the game.
The pick: Jaguars*
[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Spread: Baltimore -2.5
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: Baltimore is usually more of a public team, but the Bengals are 2-0 and the Ravens are 0-2 so that has flipped.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps snapped up the most of the +3s out there. The Bengals will also be a popular teaser play among squares and sharps alike.
Tuley's take: I'm also on the side of the Bengals. They're a very quiet 2-0 but are playing as well as anybody on both sides of the ball. The loss of Terrell Suggsis a big blow for Baltimore's defense and should make it easier for Cincinnati to move the ball and score. I expect the Ravens' offense to struggle more like it did in Week 1 against the Broncos.
The pick: Bengals*
[h=2]Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns[/h]Spread: Browns -3.5
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Raiders
Public perception: Neither of these is much of a public team these days, which would usually default to the public taking the favorite, so it says a lot that more than 60 percent is on the underdog. Oakland's upset of Baltimore was more impressive than Cleveland's win over Tennessee.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were all over the Raiders at +4.5 and +4, but that has cooled off at +3.5. Tuley's take: I'm not buying that the Browns should be favored as more than a field goal over anyone. Josh McCown is back at QB for the Browns after passing the league's concussion protocol, but I'm not sure that the best thing for Cleveland after Johnny Manziel earned his first victory last week. The QB situation is more settled in Oakland with Derek Carr continuing to improve. Plus, he has Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to throw to on the outside.
The pick: Raiders*
[h=2]Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans[/h]Spread: Colts -3
Public consensus pick: 79 percent Colts
Public perception: The Colts are off to an 0-2 start, but Andrew Luck & Co. are still more attractive to bettors than Tennessee, especially with the spread this low.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened at Indianapolis -5 at the Westgate and -4.5 or -4 at most other books, and the sharps kept taking the home dog until the line dropped to a field goal. It's more of a bet against the Colts.
Tuley's take: I'd love to make a case for the home 'dog, but the number is too short for me. Instead, I'll look to the over. The Colts had the misfortune of facing the Bills and Jets the first two weeks of the season and should have an easier time against the Titans. And although Marcus Mariota looked like more of a rookie against Cleveland than he did against Tampa Bay in the opener, he should have success against the Indy D, so I'm looking for a shootout.
The pick: Over 45* (pool play: Colts)
[h=2]Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys[/h]Spread: Falcons -1
Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Falcons
Public perception: The public is siding with the Falcons, since the Cowboys are missing not only Tony Romo but also Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. The fact that Atlanta has started 2-0 also helps.
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game was Dallas -4.5 at the Westgate last week, so there's been a lot of debate of how many points the loss of Romo is worth to the line. Sharps joined the public in betting Atlanta when this line was re-opened at pick-'em. There was buyback on Dallas after the line climbed to Atlanta -2.
Tuley's take: It looks like the market has corrected itself. I would have been more tempted to take the Cowboys if the line kept steaming toward a field goal. I'll probably just end up teasing the Cowboys up over a touchdown underdog.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys)
</photo2></p>[h=2]San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Cardinals -6.5
Public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Cardinals
Public perception: It wasn't too long ago that San Francisco was more of a public team than Arizona, but the public has been on the Cardinals the past two weeks and keeps cashing tickets on them.
Wiseguys' view: There's been some wiseguy resisitance to this line moving to a full 7. Usually when a line is at 6.5 and there's so much public support, it would be to 7 by now. Arizona will be a very popular teaser play. Tuley's take: I'm as much of a fan of the Cardinals and Bruce Arians as anyone -- and have been hyping the offense as long as Carson Palmer stays healthy -- but San Francisco hasn't fallen as much as this line indicates. In my opinion, this line should be closer to a field goal than a touchdown.
The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers, would consider making official play at +7)
</photo2></p>[h=2]Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks[/h]Spread: Seahawks -14.5
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: It's not often you see an 0-2 team favored by more than two touchdowns, but the Bears are also 0-2 and Jimmy Clausen is replacing the injured Jay Cutler (hamstring). Oh, and the Seattle defense gets back Kam Chancellor from his holdout.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps know you can't make money long-term in the NFL by laying double digits in the NFL, so it's underdog or pass for them.
Tuley's take: I don't like this double-digit underdog as much as the Jaguars-Patriots game, but I feel I have to back the Bears on the principle that this line is overinflated (the advance line was Seattle -9.5) and it's debatable how much better the Bears' offense is with the turnover-prone Cutler.
The pick: Bears*
</photo2></p>[h=2]Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins[/h]Spread: Miami -3 (EVEN)
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Bills
Public perception: This is only the second underdog getting more than 60 percent of the public's support (the Raiders being the other). Bettors are willing to forgive the Bills' loss to the Patriots more than the Dolphins' loss to the Jaguars.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly split on this game with those liking Buffalo taking the +3 while those that prefer Miami looking to lay the 2.5.
Tuley's take: I said before the season that I felt the Dolphins were better than the Bills and more of a threat to the Patriots in the AFC East, so I'm not ready to change my mind and go with the underdog here. Instead, I like the under as both defenses should be able to control the others' offense.
The pick: Under 43* (pool play: Dolphins)
</photo2></p>[h=2]Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions[/h]Spread: Broncos -3
Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Broncos
Public perception: Denver is more of a public team to begin with, so with the Broncos starting 2-0 and the Lions at 0-2, it's no surprise that the public is clearly on the favorite here.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were definitely on Denver more when the line opened at 2.5 at some books, but it's more split at 3.
Tuley's take: I would love to make a case for the home underdog, but the Lions have already let me down twice this season, so I'm a little gun-shy. I feel better with the under as both offenses haven't excelled yet (Detroit is 25th in total yards while Denver is dead last) and the defenses have the ability to shut down the other team (Denver's defense is rated No. 1).
The pick: Under 44.5* (pool play: Lions)
</photo2></p>[h=2]Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (ESPN/Monday night)[/h]Spread: Packers -6.5
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Packers
Public perception: Green Bay is the epitome of a public team (and not just because of its ownership structure), so it's a given the public is on the Packers again especially with the line under a touchdown and Eddie Lacy expected back.
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</article>Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split in this matchup. Action has been balanced so far with the sharps that like Green Bay laying the 6.5, but there's been enough counter-action on Kansas City to keep this line from going to a touchdown so far. All the live teasers from Sunday will probably be tied to the Packers.
Tuley's take: The Chiefs have extra rest from their loss to the Broncos a week ago Thursday, but it's hard to back them with the way the lost that game. Besides, I'm not thrilled with fading the Packers at home unless a team has an offensive attack to keep up with Aaron Rodgers & Co.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Packers)
Here's an easier list of my official plays for Week 3:
Sides (5-4 season record)
Chargers +2.5
Jaguars +13.5
Bengals +2.5
Raiders +3.5
Bears +14.5
Over/Unders (3-5)
</photo2></p>Eagles-Jets UNDER 46
Colts-Titans OVER 45
Bills-Dolphins UNDER 43
Broncos-Lions UNDER 44.5
Editor's note: This file has been updated to reflect the news of Drew Brees missing this Sunday's game versus Carolina.
LAS VEGAS -- It's been a rollercoaster of a pro football season so far for most bettors.
In Week 1, favorites dominated and so did chalk bettors. In Week 2, it was the underdogs' turn and 'dog bettors rejoiced.
It's interesting to note that after two weeks, favorites and underdogs were split 15-15-1 against the spread (note: this is with grading the Tennessee-Cleveland as closing as a pick-'em). And over/unders were also split at 15-15-2.
The New York Giants' 32-21 win over the Washington Redskins as 3-point home favorites broke the deadlocks and favorites are back on top at 16-15-1 ATS with unders leading 16-15-1.
Week 2
Home: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Favorites: 6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS (TEN-CLE closed pick 'em)
Home dogs: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Double-digit dogs: 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS
Over/unders: 7-8-1
Season to date (including Thursday night)
Home: 20-13 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
Favorites: 18-14 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
Home dogs: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Double-digit dogs: 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS
Over/unders: 15-16-2
I've had an interesting two weeks. As I wrote last week, I wasn't beat up too badly in Week 1 (pretty much breaking even), but then in Week 2, when all those favorites were winning outright -- which would usually mean I'm having a big day -- I squeaked out a profit but not as big as I was hoping.
But that's ancient history as we turn our attention to the Week 3 card. We'll take our normal look at how the public is viewing the matchup, what the wiseguys are thinking and then I'll give my take on each game with either a side or total I like or at least a recommendation for a "pool play" if I don't like the game that much. Best bets will be marked with an asterisk(*) and those are the ones we grade as official plays (though maybe I should count the "pool plays" as those were 8-2 ATS last week!)
Last week: 3-2 ATS on sides, 2-2 on over/unders.
Season: 5-4 ATS on sides, 3-5 on over/unders
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of early Friday morning. The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN Insider's NFL PickCenter, also as of Friday morning.
[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams[/h]Spread: Steelers -1
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Steelers
Public perception: The Steelers are more of a public team to begin with, and their 43-18 rout of the 49ers has them in the good graces of bettors again. The Rams followed up their Week 1 upset of the Seahawks with a public-disappointing loss to the Redskins.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped all over Pittsburgh as a short underdog, but then there were plenty of wiseguys taking St. Louis when it was a short dog. Whichever way the public goes next, the sharps will probably take the points.
Tuley's take: The Rams showed the two faces of Dr. Jekkyl and Mr. Hyde again. They beat the Seahawks and then lose to the Redskins. Well, back at home and facing the Steelers, St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher should be able to convince his team again that they're underdogs even if the line is pick 'em or Pittsburgh is favored, and I expect more of an effort like we saw in Week 1. I'm not sure I like it enough to make it a best bet, but I'll probably be using Rams as a contrarian plays in all my pools.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Rams).
[h=2]San Diego Chargers atMinnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Vikings -2.5
Public consensus pick: 50 percent on both teams
Public perception: The public is split on this game, which makes sense, as most people would say these teams are pretty evenly matched with both teams beating the Lions and losing their other games.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps that like San Diego snapped up the few +3s that were available back on Sunday and are split at 2.5. The Chargers will be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's take: In the NFL Vegas Rankings where I'm a contributor, our panel has the Chargers as a half-point better than the Vikings and made San Diego one of our value plays when it looked like +3 might be more readily available. But even if we can't get that, I like the Chargers to win outright. They outgained the Lions more than the Vikings did, and their loss to the Bengals was better than the Vikings' loss to the 49ers.
The pick: Chargers*
[h=2]Tampa Bay Buccaneers atHouston Texans[/h]Spread: Texans -6.5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Texans
Public perception: This is also mostly a split decision. The public usually sides with the favorite, but with Houston at 0-2, that's hardly a given.
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game was Houston -8.5 before the Texans lost last Sunday to the Panthers and the Bucs upset the Saints in New Orleans. The line was reposted at 7 and the sharps took Tampa Bay +7. The line hasn't budged any since, so it's been pretty split action.
Tuley's take: I've been on the Texans both weeks, so they've let me down. However, I think their defense will cause problems for rookie Jameis Winston. I would look to the under, but the books have made it low at 40.5 (and there's sure to be at least one pick-six or sack-fumble returned for a TD). I might just include Houston in teasers.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans)
[h=2]Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets[/h]Spread: Jets -2
Public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Jets
Public perception: My, how things can change in two weeks. Entering the season, the Eagles were among the most popular teams in the league, while the Jets always have a critical fan base. Now, the Jets are 2-0, the Eagles are 0-2 and the public is overwhelmingly jumping on the Jets' bandwagon.
Wiseguys' view: Philadelphia was -3.5 on the advance line last week, the Westgate reopened on Sunday after its loss to the Cowboys at -2.5. Sharps jumped all over that and bet it to pick-'em. After the Jets' upset of the Colts on Monday Night Football, the line flipped all the way to New York -2.5, where we saw some buyback.
Tuley's take: This does look like a true coin flip of the game. The Eagles do have more talent, but the Jets are playing better. I'll trust that the New York defense will continue the Eagles' offensive woes and keep this game low-scoring, so I'm going with the under.
The pick: Under 46* (pool play: Eagles).
[h=2]New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers[/h]Spread: Panthers -8
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Panthers
Public perception: Earlier in the week, this line opened Carolina -3 at most books and some had -3.5 (and the PickCenter had 70 percent of the Panthers at that number). It was taken off the board Monday when Drew Brees was listed as questionable with his rotator cuff injury. When he was declared out on Friday, books reposted the line between Carolina -7 (Wynn) and -9 (CG Technology). In recent years, New Orleans have been the more public team, but with the Panthers at 2-0 and Saints at 0-2, it's not surprising more bettors are leaning to Carolina (and Brees being out just gives them more reason).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps grabbed the low and high end of the reposted lines on Friday but now the market seems to have settled at Carolina -8. The Panthers undoubtedly will be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's take: I would normally look to play New Orleans here with the added points (even with a backup quarterback), as we often see these games over-adjusted. However, the Saints have been playing so bad on both sides of the ball that these added points aren't enough to lure me in. I was hoping to play the under in this game -- especially if Brees were playing -- but the total has been lowered to 42.5 with him out so I'll pass on that as well.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Saints -- lean on under)
[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Patriots -13.5
Public consensus pick: 76 percent picks Patriots
Public perception: The Patriots are one of the public's favorite teams to bet on; bookies have to beg for bettors to make wagers on the Jaguars. So it's no surprise around three-quarters of the public is on New England, no matter the price.
Wiseguys' view: Double-digit underdogs are one of the most consistent good bets in the NFL over the years, so wiseguys are mostly going to be lined up on Jacksonville at the best number they can get.
Tuley's take: The Patriots don't do well in the role of double-digit home favorites (didn't cover vs. Raiders last year, didn't cover vs. Jets in 2013, went 2-4 ATS in 2012, including outright loss to Cardinals as 13.5-point favorites). I'm also encouraged by the way the Jags stepped up last week against the Dolphins to not only cover but win the game.
The pick: Jaguars*
[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Spread: Baltimore -2.5
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: Baltimore is usually more of a public team, but the Bengals are 2-0 and the Ravens are 0-2 so that has flipped.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps snapped up the most of the +3s out there. The Bengals will also be a popular teaser play among squares and sharps alike.
Tuley's take: I'm also on the side of the Bengals. They're a very quiet 2-0 but are playing as well as anybody on both sides of the ball. The loss of Terrell Suggsis a big blow for Baltimore's defense and should make it easier for Cincinnati to move the ball and score. I expect the Ravens' offense to struggle more like it did in Week 1 against the Broncos.
The pick: Bengals*
[h=2]Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns[/h]Spread: Browns -3.5
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Raiders
Public perception: Neither of these is much of a public team these days, which would usually default to the public taking the favorite, so it says a lot that more than 60 percent is on the underdog. Oakland's upset of Baltimore was more impressive than Cleveland's win over Tennessee.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were all over the Raiders at +4.5 and +4, but that has cooled off at +3.5. Tuley's take: I'm not buying that the Browns should be favored as more than a field goal over anyone. Josh McCown is back at QB for the Browns after passing the league's concussion protocol, but I'm not sure that the best thing for Cleveland after Johnny Manziel earned his first victory last week. The QB situation is more settled in Oakland with Derek Carr continuing to improve. Plus, he has Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to throw to on the outside.
The pick: Raiders*
[h=2]Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans[/h]Spread: Colts -3
Public consensus pick: 79 percent Colts
Public perception: The Colts are off to an 0-2 start, but Andrew Luck & Co. are still more attractive to bettors than Tennessee, especially with the spread this low.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened at Indianapolis -5 at the Westgate and -4.5 or -4 at most other books, and the sharps kept taking the home dog until the line dropped to a field goal. It's more of a bet against the Colts.
Tuley's take: I'd love to make a case for the home 'dog, but the number is too short for me. Instead, I'll look to the over. The Colts had the misfortune of facing the Bills and Jets the first two weeks of the season and should have an easier time against the Titans. And although Marcus Mariota looked like more of a rookie against Cleveland than he did against Tampa Bay in the opener, he should have success against the Indy D, so I'm looking for a shootout.
The pick: Over 45* (pool play: Colts)
[h=2]Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys[/h]Spread: Falcons -1
Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Falcons
Public perception: The public is siding with the Falcons, since the Cowboys are missing not only Tony Romo but also Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. The fact that Atlanta has started 2-0 also helps.
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game was Dallas -4.5 at the Westgate last week, so there's been a lot of debate of how many points the loss of Romo is worth to the line. Sharps joined the public in betting Atlanta when this line was re-opened at pick-'em. There was buyback on Dallas after the line climbed to Atlanta -2.
Tuley's take: It looks like the market has corrected itself. I would have been more tempted to take the Cowboys if the line kept steaming toward a field goal. I'll probably just end up teasing the Cowboys up over a touchdown underdog.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys)
Public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Cardinals
Public perception: It wasn't too long ago that San Francisco was more of a public team than Arizona, but the public has been on the Cardinals the past two weeks and keeps cashing tickets on them.
Wiseguys' view: There's been some wiseguy resisitance to this line moving to a full 7. Usually when a line is at 6.5 and there's so much public support, it would be to 7 by now. Arizona will be a very popular teaser play. Tuley's take: I'm as much of a fan of the Cardinals and Bruce Arians as anyone -- and have been hyping the offense as long as Carson Palmer stays healthy -- but San Francisco hasn't fallen as much as this line indicates. In my opinion, this line should be closer to a field goal than a touchdown.
The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers, would consider making official play at +7)
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: It's not often you see an 0-2 team favored by more than two touchdowns, but the Bears are also 0-2 and Jimmy Clausen is replacing the injured Jay Cutler (hamstring). Oh, and the Seattle defense gets back Kam Chancellor from his holdout.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps know you can't make money long-term in the NFL by laying double digits in the NFL, so it's underdog or pass for them.
Tuley's take: I don't like this double-digit underdog as much as the Jaguars-Patriots game, but I feel I have to back the Bears on the principle that this line is overinflated (the advance line was Seattle -9.5) and it's debatable how much better the Bears' offense is with the turnover-prone Cutler.
The pick: Bears*
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Bills
Public perception: This is only the second underdog getting more than 60 percent of the public's support (the Raiders being the other). Bettors are willing to forgive the Bills' loss to the Patriots more than the Dolphins' loss to the Jaguars.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly split on this game with those liking Buffalo taking the +3 while those that prefer Miami looking to lay the 2.5.
Tuley's take: I said before the season that I felt the Dolphins were better than the Bills and more of a threat to the Patriots in the AFC East, so I'm not ready to change my mind and go with the underdog here. Instead, I like the under as both defenses should be able to control the others' offense.
The pick: Under 43* (pool play: Dolphins)
Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Broncos
Public perception: Denver is more of a public team to begin with, so with the Broncos starting 2-0 and the Lions at 0-2, it's no surprise that the public is clearly on the favorite here.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were definitely on Denver more when the line opened at 2.5 at some books, but it's more split at 3.
Tuley's take: I would love to make a case for the home underdog, but the Lions have already let me down twice this season, so I'm a little gun-shy. I feel better with the under as both offenses haven't excelled yet (Detroit is 25th in total yards while Denver is dead last) and the defenses have the ability to shut down the other team (Denver's defense is rated No. 1).
The pick: Under 44.5* (pool play: Lions)
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Packers
Public perception: Green Bay is the epitome of a public team (and not just because of its ownership structure), so it's a given the public is on the Packers again especially with the line under a touchdown and Eddie Lacy expected back.
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</article>Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split in this matchup. Action has been balanced so far with the sharps that like Green Bay laying the 6.5, but there's been enough counter-action on Kansas City to keep this line from going to a touchdown so far. All the live teasers from Sunday will probably be tied to the Packers.
Tuley's take: The Chiefs have extra rest from their loss to the Broncos a week ago Thursday, but it's hard to back them with the way the lost that game. Besides, I'm not thrilled with fading the Packers at home unless a team has an offensive attack to keep up with Aaron Rodgers & Co.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Packers)
Here's an easier list of my official plays for Week 3:
Sides (5-4 season record)
Chargers +2.5
Jaguars +13.5
Bengals +2.5
Raiders +3.5
Bears +14.5
Over/Unders (3-5)
</photo2></p>Eagles-Jets UNDER 46
Colts-Titans OVER 45
Bills-Dolphins UNDER 43
Broncos-Lions UNDER 44.5
