Analyzing Week 4 NFL Early Line Moves

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[h=1]Week 4 pro football early line moves[/h]
Dave Tuley, ESPN INSIDER


Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines the prior Tuesday (so Week 5 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL's epidemic of quarterback injuries continued Sunday with Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger going down against St. Louis -- and, of course, it had an impact on the point spread in the Steelers' next game.
Last week in the Week 4 advance lines at the Westgate SuperBook, Pittsburgh was a 3.5-point favorite for Thursday night's game against Baltimore. When the Westgate reopened its lines at 4:30 p.m. PT on Sunday, the Ravens were installed as a 2.5-point road favorite despite being 0-3 on the season. The CG Technology books in Nevada and some offshore books were at Baltimore minus-3 (plus-100, meaning those taking Pittsburgh plus-3 had to lay minus-120), and this has the look of a game that could hover between 2.5 and 3 during the short week.
The uncertain status of Jay Cutler and Drew Brees, who were both injured last week along with Tony Romo, kept the Oakland-Chicago and New Orleans-Dallas games off the board at the Westgate, though offshore books made the Raiders a short road favorite at Chicago.
Here are some other notable adjustments and line moves for the rest of the Week 4 card:
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Jets-Dolphins: The Westgate opened this game pick 'em, but the Wynn and William Hill were at New York minus-1, and it looks as if the Jets could go off the favorite.
Jaguars-Colts: Indianapolis was minus-7 on the Westgate's advance line, but after Jacksonville's big loss to New England and the Colts' win (though they didn't cover) over Tennessee, this was reopened at minus-9.5.
Texans-Falcons: The advance line was Atlanta minus-3.5, but after both teams won Sunday, it reopened minus-4 and was bet to minus-5, and it was already minus-6 offshore so expect it to continue steaming higher.
Panthers-Buccaneers: This went from Carolina minus-2.5 to minus-3, and it wouldn't be surprising if we saw it cross the key number of 3 to minus-3.5.
Browns-Chargers: It's not often you see a line move on a losing team like this from San Diego minus-6.5 last week to minus-7 on Sunday (and then bet to minus-7.5 by early bettors), but the Browns also lost Sunday.
Packers-49ers: Green Bay didn't even play Sunday, but its Week 4 line against San Francisco went from minus-6.5 to minus-9.5. That's how bad the 49ers looked in their loss at Arizona.
Rams-Cardinals: This line was Arizona minus-4 last week, but the Cardinals' rout of the 49ers and the Rams' loss to the Steelers had the Westgate reopen this at Arizona minus-6. Bettors backed the Cardinals to 6.5 on Sunday, which is where CG Technology and some offshores opened the game.
Lions-Seahawks: This game was off the board last week due to Matthew Stafford's injury and reopened at Seattle minus-9.5 on Sunday. It was taken down at the kickoff of the Sunday night game, and we'll see how it gets adjusted on Monday morning.

Week 4 openers
Courtesy of the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook
Ravens -2.5 Steelers
Jets Dolphins PK
Jaguars Colts -9.5
Texans Falcons -4 -5
Panthers -2.5 -3 Buccaneers
Giants Bills -6.5
Raiders OFF Bears
Eagles -2.5 -3 (-120) Redskins
Chiefs Bengals -3 (-120)
Browns Chargers -7 -7.5
Packers -9.5 49ers
Vikings Broncos -4.5
Rams Cardinals -6 -6.5
Cowboys OFF Saints
Lions Seahawks -9.5
Note: The second numbers are the moves as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game.
 

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