Where contrarian betting value lies in Week 4
David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
So far this season, the focus of our contrarian strategies has involved how bettors can capitalize on market overreactions based on public perception. As NFL games are played weekly, it's important to know what drives line movement to determine whether it's provoked by sharp bettors or overzealous -- and overconfident -- square bettors.
History demonstrates that our most consistently profitable contrarian strategy is betting against the public. In simple terms, if the public is loading up on one team, bet on its opponent.
The public loves taking winning teams and naturally gravitates toward favorites. Sportsbooks adjust for this public sentiment by shading their opening lines, and an influx of public money can artificially move these lines even further. Getting an extra point or half-point might not seem like much, but it can increase your winning percentage by 1 percent to 3 percent -- a huge gain for patient sports bettors with a long-term outlook.
As detailed in a recent article by David Purdum, Las Vegas sportsbooks took a Mike Tyson-esque beating last weekend. According to our public betting trends, the Seahawks, Cardinals and Broncos were three of the most popular bets on Sunday.
Unfortunately, all three teams posted big wins, which led to a profitable day for many bettors and a huge hit for the sportsbooks.
When sportsbooks suffer, so do our betting-against-the-public strategies. Last week, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets went just 4-11 against the spread, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets were just 1-4. With contrarian dogs struggling, our picks posted a 0-2 ATS record last week, dropping our season record to 5-4 ATS.
That said, you might never find better value than you will after the public posts a huge week. These square bettors are now more confident and equipped with additional funds to help inflate these favorite lines.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our goal this week was to combine our betting-against-the-public strategy with the public's propensity to overreact to low-scoring games. Bettors won't always overreact when a defense gets lit up, but they will almost always overreact to an inept offensive performance. It's more predictable than the plot of a Michael Bay movie.
Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 526-500 ATS (51.3 percent). Although that represents an edge, it doesn't eclipse the 52.4 percent winning rate necessary to overcome the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.
When we look at contrarian teams that also scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game, that winning percentage skyrockets to 62 percent.
Week 3 betting system
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</aside>("Units won" is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $4,266 -- $100 x 42.66 units -- by following the system.)
Why does this work?
Betting against the public is the cornerstone of our contrarian strategy. The sweet spot could differ, but this strategy has proved to be successful across all six major sports leagues.
Combined with the public's tendency to push the panic button after a poor performance, particularly an atrocious offensive showing, these results improve exponentially.
Most of the past system matches have been on underdogs; however, it has been profitable for favorites as well. Additionally, there have been positive returns for both home and visiting teams.
This week, there are four current system matches, though bettors should track the latest public betting trends on the ESPN Chalk Live Odds page, as this data can fluctuate throughout the week.
In general, we recommend waiting until right before game time to place your bets to ensure that they still fit the system.
Week 4 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Just one week after upsetting the Saints as 10-point underdogs, the Buccaneers reminded bettors why they earned the first pick in the 2015 NFL draft. The Bucs tallied just 318 total yards and 14 first downs in a 19-9 loss against the Texans in Week 3.
After this poor offensive outing, Tampa Bay opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and has received just 11 percent of spread bets. With the public overwhelmingly taking Carolina, the Panthers have moved from -2.5 to -3.
Historically underdogs have performed well in divisional games, which provides additional value on Tampa Bay. Considering that nearly one in every five NFL games is decided by exactly three points, we're happy to take that free half-point and take Tampa Bay +3.
Chicago Bears (+3) vs. Oakland Raiders
Three games into the new season and the Bears have already been outscored by a league-high 59 points and have started a fire sale by trading Jon Bostic to the Patriots and Jared Allen to the Panthers.
Last week, with both Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery sidelined, the Bears managed an embarrassingly low 146 total yards against the Seahawks. This level of ineptitude led oddsmakers to open the Bears as a 2.5-point home underdogs against the lowly Raiders.
This is particularly noteworthy because Oakland has been a road favorite just six times since 2003, posting a 1-5 ATS record in those games. In fact, Oakland hasn't been favored as a visitor in more than two years. Although Oakland has been one of the league's laughing stocks over the past decade, the Raiders have won their past two games and are receiving 80 percent of early spread bets against the Bears. This one-sided public betting has moved Oakland from -2.5 to -3.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Bears and sell high on the Raiders. It might be tough to back Jimmy Clausen, but getting three points at home against the Raiders is too good to pass up.
San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
In the biggest Week 3 blowout, the Arizona Cardinals demolished the San Francisco 49ers 47-7. Colin Kaepernick looked like a chicken with his head cut off, aimlessly running around and completing just nine passes while tossing four interceptions.
San Francisco opened as a 9.5-point home underdog, and most bettors are being scared off by last week's heinous performance. At the time of publication, Green Bay was receiving 81 percent of spread bets, yet the Packers had dropped from -9.5 to -8.5. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that early sharp money favors the 49ers.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Since 2003, home underdogs of at least seven points have gone 118-88 ATS (57.3 percent), which once again provides value on the 49ers. It won't be pretty, but once again we'll buy low and take San Francisco +8.5.
St. Louis Rams (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams might be the league's most unpredictable team in the first three weeks. After scoring 34 points in a Week 1 victory, St. Louis managed just 10 points in a Week 2 loss against Washington and six points in its Week 3 loss to the Steelers.
This week, the Rams face off against the red-hot Cardinals, who now have the fourth-best odds (+1,150) of winning the Super Bowl. Once again, this is an excellent opportunity to buy low and sell high.
Arizona opened as a six-point favorite and has received a whopping 92 percent of spread bets. With such an extreme disparity between the two teams, the Cardinals have moved from -6 to -6.5. It's worth noting that many offshore sportsbooks have already moved to -7, so make sure to shop for the best line before taking St. Louis this week.
David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
So far this season, the focus of our contrarian strategies has involved how bettors can capitalize on market overreactions based on public perception. As NFL games are played weekly, it's important to know what drives line movement to determine whether it's provoked by sharp bettors or overzealous -- and overconfident -- square bettors.
History demonstrates that our most consistently profitable contrarian strategy is betting against the public. In simple terms, if the public is loading up on one team, bet on its opponent.
The public loves taking winning teams and naturally gravitates toward favorites. Sportsbooks adjust for this public sentiment by shading their opening lines, and an influx of public money can artificially move these lines even further. Getting an extra point or half-point might not seem like much, but it can increase your winning percentage by 1 percent to 3 percent -- a huge gain for patient sports bettors with a long-term outlook.
As detailed in a recent article by David Purdum, Las Vegas sportsbooks took a Mike Tyson-esque beating last weekend. According to our public betting trends, the Seahawks, Cardinals and Broncos were three of the most popular bets on Sunday.
Unfortunately, all three teams posted big wins, which led to a profitable day for many bettors and a huge hit for the sportsbooks.
When sportsbooks suffer, so do our betting-against-the-public strategies. Last week, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets went just 4-11 against the spread, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets were just 1-4. With contrarian dogs struggling, our picks posted a 0-2 ATS record last week, dropping our season record to 5-4 ATS.
That said, you might never find better value than you will after the public posts a huge week. These square bettors are now more confident and equipped with additional funds to help inflate these favorite lines.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our goal this week was to combine our betting-against-the-public strategy with the public's propensity to overreact to low-scoring games. Bettors won't always overreact when a defense gets lit up, but they will almost always overreact to an inept offensive performance. It's more predictable than the plot of a Michael Bay movie.
Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 526-500 ATS (51.3 percent). Although that represents an edge, it doesn't eclipse the 52.4 percent winning rate necessary to overcome the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.
When we look at contrarian teams that also scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game, that winning percentage skyrockets to 62 percent.
Week 3 betting system
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving <30% of spread bets | 526-500 (51.3%) | -1.93 | -0.2% |
| Receiving <30% of spread bets, Scored <10 points previous game | 129-79 (62.0%) | +42.66 | +20.5% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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</aside>("Units won" is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $4,266 -- $100 x 42.66 units -- by following the system.)
Why does this work?
Betting against the public is the cornerstone of our contrarian strategy. The sweet spot could differ, but this strategy has proved to be successful across all six major sports leagues.
Combined with the public's tendency to push the panic button after a poor performance, particularly an atrocious offensive showing, these results improve exponentially.
Most of the past system matches have been on underdogs; however, it has been profitable for favorites as well. Additionally, there have been positive returns for both home and visiting teams.
This week, there are four current system matches, though bettors should track the latest public betting trends on the ESPN Chalk Live Odds page, as this data can fluctuate throughout the week.
In general, we recommend waiting until right before game time to place your bets to ensure that they still fit the system.
Week 4 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Just one week after upsetting the Saints as 10-point underdogs, the Buccaneers reminded bettors why they earned the first pick in the 2015 NFL draft. The Bucs tallied just 318 total yards and 14 first downs in a 19-9 loss against the Texans in Week 3.
After this poor offensive outing, Tampa Bay opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and has received just 11 percent of spread bets. With the public overwhelmingly taking Carolina, the Panthers have moved from -2.5 to -3.
Historically underdogs have performed well in divisional games, which provides additional value on Tampa Bay. Considering that nearly one in every five NFL games is decided by exactly three points, we're happy to take that free half-point and take Tampa Bay +3.
Chicago Bears (+3) vs. Oakland Raiders
Three games into the new season and the Bears have already been outscored by a league-high 59 points and have started a fire sale by trading Jon Bostic to the Patriots and Jared Allen to the Panthers.
Last week, with both Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery sidelined, the Bears managed an embarrassingly low 146 total yards against the Seahawks. This level of ineptitude led oddsmakers to open the Bears as a 2.5-point home underdogs against the lowly Raiders.
This is particularly noteworthy because Oakland has been a road favorite just six times since 2003, posting a 1-5 ATS record in those games. In fact, Oakland hasn't been favored as a visitor in more than two years. Although Oakland has been one of the league's laughing stocks over the past decade, the Raiders have won their past two games and are receiving 80 percent of early spread bets against the Bears. This one-sided public betting has moved Oakland from -2.5 to -3.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Bears and sell high on the Raiders. It might be tough to back Jimmy Clausen, but getting three points at home against the Raiders is too good to pass up.
San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
In the biggest Week 3 blowout, the Arizona Cardinals demolished the San Francisco 49ers 47-7. Colin Kaepernick looked like a chicken with his head cut off, aimlessly running around and completing just nine passes while tossing four interceptions.
San Francisco opened as a 9.5-point home underdog, and most bettors are being scared off by last week's heinous performance. At the time of publication, Green Bay was receiving 81 percent of spread bets, yet the Packers had dropped from -9.5 to -8.5. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that early sharp money favors the 49ers.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Since 2003, home underdogs of at least seven points have gone 118-88 ATS (57.3 percent), which once again provides value on the 49ers. It won't be pretty, but once again we'll buy low and take San Francisco +8.5.
St. Louis Rams (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams might be the league's most unpredictable team in the first three weeks. After scoring 34 points in a Week 1 victory, St. Louis managed just 10 points in a Week 2 loss against Washington and six points in its Week 3 loss to the Steelers.
This week, the Rams face off against the red-hot Cardinals, who now have the fourth-best odds (+1,150) of winning the Super Bowl. Once again, this is an excellent opportunity to buy low and sell high.
Arizona opened as a six-point favorite and has received a whopping 92 percent of spread bets. With such an extreme disparity between the two teams, the Cardinals have moved from -6 to -6.5. It's worth noting that many offshore sportsbooks have already moved to -7, so make sure to shop for the best line before taking St. Louis this week.
