[h=1]How to bet Detroit-Seattle[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Detroit Lions atSeattle Seahawks[/h]Spread: Opened Seattle -9.5; now Seattle -10
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: After getting their first win of the season with a 26-0 shutout of the Bears, the Seahawks are back in the public's good graces -- not that the public had given up on them.
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Wiseguys' view: Some sharps, who probably figured the public would push this line to double digits anyway, grabbed Seattle -9.5. But they are less likely to back them now. Those who want the Lions will wait to see how high this line goes after the long weekend.
Tuley's take: The Lions let me down the first two games against the Chargers and Vikings, and I'm glad I passed with them last week against Denver, but I'm back on them this week. The Seahawks got off the schneid, but it was against the Bears, and if you take away their kickoff return and defensive touchdown, the offense didn't do much. I think Detroit can hold them down enough to stay within the number.
The pick: Detroit +10
Erin Rynning says: The 0-3 Lions are lacking confidence on the both sides of the football, and Seattle is a difficult place to regain any swagger. The Seahawks are an amazing 32-14-1 ATS at home under Pete Carroll. The Seahawks certainly regained theirs on their home turf last week, beating the Chicago Bears 26-0. It's hard to envision the Lions winning the line of scrimmage in this contest. They have been outgained on the ground by 200 yards on the season. I'll use a lean to the Seahawks as they rate a small edge on my numbers.
ATS pick: Seattle -10
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Wunderdog says: Both of these teams can pressure QBs, which will mean turnovers and field position for the offenses. Detroit has plenty of passing talent with Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. The Lions won't be able to run on this Seattle defensive line and will be forced to open things up more. They have had struggles defensively, allowing 27.7 points (24th) and 395.7 yards per game (27th). Detroit got shut down last week, but the Lions are 34-16-2 over the total after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game. Seattle was finally able to get its key offseason acquisition on offense going as tight end Jimmy Graham had seven receptions and 83 yards with a touchdown against the Bears last week. With running back Marshawn Lynch ailing, look for the Seahawks to pass more than they usually do. Take theover.
The pick: Over 43
[h=2]Prop Bets[/h]245.5 passing yards by Matthew Stafford (O/U -110)
John Parolin says: The Seahawks have played 17 home games since the start of 2013, during which time they've surrendered at least 246 passing yards three times. That's an under in 82 percent of games for what is a pick-'em bet -- pretty compelling in its own right. Let's explore the three overs on a case-by-case basis.
1. Peyton Manning, 303 yards in Week 3 of 2014
Manning's Broncos averaged an AFC-best 30.1 points per game and ranked fourth in offensive efficiency. Denver was in the top half of the league in rushing as well and had Manning at quarterback. This is just not an apt comparison to the 2015 Lions offense, which ranks 19th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in points per game.
2. Eli Manning, 283 yards in Week 10 of 2014
From a team perspective, the 2014 Giants offense was a moderate success. New York ranked 11th in passing efficiency last season and tied for 10th in points per game. But what really makes this a tough comparison for the Lions is the quarterback. Eli Manning's first season with Ben McAdoo was a success, relying on high-efficiency short throws to move the ball. He posted a 66 QBR last year, much better than Stafford's 45.
3. Tony Romo, 250 yards in Week 6 of 2014
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</article>The Dallas defense ranked fifth in scoring and second in offensive efficiency behind a career year from DeMarco Murray. Dallas averaged 147 rushing yards per game last year -- second in the league -- and gashed Seattle for 162 yards on the ground. That opened up Romo to barely reach the over. Detroit is averaging 45 rush yards per game, 12 fewer than any other team in the league. Stafford doesn't have the luxury of Murray and that offensive line to absorb some of the schematic pressure.
Stafford's situation just doesn't compare to those three. It's a little more similar to the other 82 percent.
The pick: Under
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Primer.
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: After getting their first win of the season with a 26-0 shutout of the Bears, the Seahawks are back in the public's good graces -- not that the public had given up on them.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: Some sharps, who probably figured the public would push this line to double digits anyway, grabbed Seattle -9.5. But they are less likely to back them now. Those who want the Lions will wait to see how high this line goes after the long weekend.
Tuley's take: The Lions let me down the first two games against the Chargers and Vikings, and I'm glad I passed with them last week against Denver, but I'm back on them this week. The Seahawks got off the schneid, but it was against the Bears, and if you take away their kickoff return and defensive touchdown, the offense didn't do much. I think Detroit can hold them down enough to stay within the number.
The pick: Detroit +10
Erin Rynning says: The 0-3 Lions are lacking confidence on the both sides of the football, and Seattle is a difficult place to regain any swagger. The Seahawks are an amazing 32-14-1 ATS at home under Pete Carroll. The Seahawks certainly regained theirs on their home turf last week, beating the Chicago Bears 26-0. It's hard to envision the Lions winning the line of scrimmage in this contest. They have been outgained on the ground by 200 yards on the season. I'll use a lean to the Seahawks as they rate a small edge on my numbers.
ATS pick: Seattle -10
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Wunderdog says: Both of these teams can pressure QBs, which will mean turnovers and field position for the offenses. Detroit has plenty of passing talent with Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. The Lions won't be able to run on this Seattle defensive line and will be forced to open things up more. They have had struggles defensively, allowing 27.7 points (24th) and 395.7 yards per game (27th). Detroit got shut down last week, but the Lions are 34-16-2 over the total after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game. Seattle was finally able to get its key offseason acquisition on offense going as tight end Jimmy Graham had seven receptions and 83 yards with a touchdown against the Bears last week. With running back Marshawn Lynch ailing, look for the Seahawks to pass more than they usually do. Take theover.
The pick: Over 43
[h=2]Prop Bets[/h]245.5 passing yards by Matthew Stafford (O/U -110)
John Parolin says: The Seahawks have played 17 home games since the start of 2013, during which time they've surrendered at least 246 passing yards three times. That's an under in 82 percent of games for what is a pick-'em bet -- pretty compelling in its own right. Let's explore the three overs on a case-by-case basis.
1. Peyton Manning, 303 yards in Week 3 of 2014
Manning's Broncos averaged an AFC-best 30.1 points per game and ranked fourth in offensive efficiency. Denver was in the top half of the league in rushing as well and had Manning at quarterback. This is just not an apt comparison to the 2015 Lions offense, which ranks 19th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in points per game.
2. Eli Manning, 283 yards in Week 10 of 2014
From a team perspective, the 2014 Giants offense was a moderate success. New York ranked 11th in passing efficiency last season and tied for 10th in points per game. But what really makes this a tough comparison for the Lions is the quarterback. Eli Manning's first season with Ben McAdoo was a success, relying on high-efficiency short throws to move the ball. He posted a 66 QBR last year, much better than Stafford's 45.
3. Tony Romo, 250 yards in Week 6 of 2014
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</article>The Dallas defense ranked fifth in scoring and second in offensive efficiency behind a career year from DeMarco Murray. Dallas averaged 147 rushing yards per game last year -- second in the league -- and gashed Seattle for 162 yards on the ground. That opened up Romo to barely reach the over. Detroit is averaging 45 rush yards per game, 12 fewer than any other team in the league. Stafford doesn't have the luxury of Murray and that offensive line to absorb some of the schematic pressure.
Stafford's situation just doesn't compare to those three. It's a little more similar to the other 82 percent.
The pick: Under
