Does Luck exist? And I am that Unlucky?

Defying · Oct 5, 2015

Remember how Detroit got cheated in the playoffs and should have beat Cowboys...

Remember the game after that Cowboys had the Packers when Dez jumped for that final yards and somehow that makes it not a catch.. I had that huge...

Now I'm in deeper I've ever been in my life...
Remember when Green Bay Blew it against Seattle in the NFC Championship game. On side and all... I had green bay, final leg of a 8,000 parlay... ONside kick and all...

Guess who I needed in the Super Bowl? Seattle.

These aren't 4 random games.. this was BACK to BACK to BACK to BACK weeks the hole got so big.
I never believed in luck my entire life...

But after tonight, Am I the unluckiest person in the world when it comes to the NFL Betting....

I had Detroit vs Seahawks where Calvin lost it doing in and it was a illegal knock out... I needed Over 16.5 TT, Over 9.5 2h TT, Lions ML, all lost on that play...

loomis41973 · Oct 5, 2015

You need to talk with Mobdeeper...he sees the future...no such thing as luck or fate or momentum...it is written before it happens if you know the code

ANOTHERDAY · Oct 6, 2015

A few weeks ago I lost 7 soccer games in a row all by .5 goal

I never feel good

texansfan · Oct 6, 2015

loomis41973 said:
You need to talk with Mobdeeper...he sees the future...no such thing as luck or fate or momentum...it is written before it happens if you know the code

Is it the red or blue pill?

loomis41973 · Oct 6, 2015

texansfan said:
Is it the red or blue pill?

The big purple pill

boss415 · Oct 6, 2015

Nfl has just become crazy and filled with flags and questionabke rulings. After the packer game last year i swore i was done with nfl and then i too was in the seahawks in th sb. Its not just you!

ML Dog · Oct 6, 2015

Oh Luck and Bad Luck definitely exist. You've had an unusual run of bad but what about the DFS Hit? That was very very GOOD LUCK.

Maybe you're seeing the Glass Half Empty that is actually Half Full?

I know, for me, I can make the best bet I know, the most logical bet based upon History, Matchups, Weather, Health of Teams you name it and more often within the last 3 years those bets don't even come close to the outcome I experienced prior to 2012 and became accustomed to.

So I have no explanation for why completely solid bets that once worked now fail at such a high rate.

For you though I think you do better over all, like, you're situation in it's entirety is very + EV and you're just venting...cuz of these recent Bad Beats. Appropriately so...I could fill this page with just bullshit losses I've collected in the last THREE WEEKS as a result of TURNOVERS that the team involved had no history of whatsoever....

less than totally true with Russell Wilson tonight...he fumbled 11 times last year but this is Stafford on the Road vs. a Good team. His record in this spot is in Hache Man's "Betting Tips for Week 4" thread....dude was like 0 for The World...I just can't imagine what else I can do sometimes. I realize now more than ever that one can study until their eyes bleed and reasonably expect a 50% success rate and anything above that (or below it) just sheer fuckin' luck (or bad luck) so yes absolutely luck totally exists....

Illini · Oct 6, 2015

Luck doesn't exist, but emotions are raw and will destroy you if you don't let go. I had Lions vs Dallas, and Dallas vs GB, but was on the fortunate end of Pats-Seahawks. The important thing to remember is that the margin between winning and losing a bet is very small. It's a tough game.

Stay away from parlays. They are nothing but heartbreakers. The entire concept is dumb. People bet a huge parlay and then want to hedge off some. That defeats the purpose, paying vig on both sides. And if you don't hedge and lose, you are just devastated.

Redagger029 · Oct 6, 2015

ANOTHERDAY? said:
A few weeks ago I lost 7 soccer games in a row all by .5 goal

I never feel good

It's time for me to walk away for a while if I lose two games in a row. Usually means a losing streak is coming.

Willie99 · Oct 6, 2015

it's a game of runs

1/2 of the time it's threading water
1/4 of the time it's deep throat, I tend to bet smaller when on a bad run
1/4 of the time I'm amazing, and I'm a send it in type of guy

That's what works for me, on sports and craps alike

Many people tend to do the opposite. When winning, they cut back and when losing they bet larger because "it's due to change".

We've all been there Defying

MikeB · Oct 6, 2015

Ask your Father-in-Law if he thinks he and his daughter believe in bad luck....

CHOPTALK · Oct 6, 2015

Kickers cost me so much money last week dont even want to talk about it.

MotorCityMadman · Oct 6, 2015

Call it what you want. Luck is variance. You only remember the bad beats.

Slurve~Ball · Oct 6, 2015

I'm happy when there is no luck involved. Always seems like there is more bad than good.

PigskinArmor · Oct 6, 2015

Redagger029 said:
It's time for me to walk away for a while if I lose two games in a row. Usually means a losing streak is coming.

Need a 3 game chase system designed around this.

Vlad the Impaler · Oct 6, 2015

I never thought that rule really made sense. Honestly, I had no idea you can't intentionally knock a ball the way it happened but it just seems strange that that is a turnover in that case. Logically, you would think it would still be the Lions ball at the 20. Seattle gets a turnover without ever possessing the ball. Yet if a punter has a bad snap and kicks the ball out of bounds from his own endzone, it is a safety. I would take the ball from my own 20 before I would take a safety. Worst case 3 vs. 2 points assuming kicker can make a 37 yard fg.

TheComputerGroup · Oct 6, 2015

For some reason, the NFL oves the Seattle team......after they got robbed in the SB vs Pitt, it seems they get all the breaks. Happened 3 years ago on Monday night vs Gbay......we saw what happened last night.

And to top it off, if Seattle's receiver was faster than the defender, final score is Seattle 20-10.

The final score never reflects what exactly happened in the game......IMO, you're better off betting these games & not watching them......at least you keep your sanity.

WVJOE · Oct 6, 2015

MikeB said:
Ask your Father-in-Law if he thinks he and his daughter believe in bad luck....

That's fucking hilarous!

As for luck...Sure there's good and bad. But I tend to side with others that say it's just a matter of streaks.

Really that's what gambling is all about in my mind, riding the hot streaks and keeping the bad ones in check. For me it's like 80% or more of the time is somewhere in the middle with hardly any big runs up or down.

Shit happens...I HATE BS like last night the most though. Nothing pisses me off more than when a fucking ref blows a call and then they either don't use replay or say it doesn't "apply" to that play. COMPLETE BULLSHIT.

My advice: Cut your bet size by like 50-75% on NFL right now if you're rolling bad. Put the difference in baseball playoffs maybe or just ride low for awhile until the streak swings the other way. You won't have to think about it. You'll know when it happens.

Good luck.

OneZero · Oct 6, 2015

I feel like I'm in the same boat as defying. On Sunday, I had two separate 4-team parlays, each would pay $400. the first one on its final leg, I had Jags +.5 2H - their damn kicker misses 2 FGs (3 if you count his practice attempt after the colts called a time out). My 2nd parlay, the last leg Is Dallas +3.5 (bought the half point). This time with the other three games were already completed so, I hedge with saints ML. The saints kicker misses a GW 30 yarder to win both sides of that bet.

HarryCaray · Oct 6, 2015

OneZero said:
I feel like I'm in the same boat as defying. On Sunday, I had two separate 4-team parlays

No offense, but I stopped reading here.

Bad luck is going to "find" you a LOT more often when you're playing parlays.

Does Luck exist? And I am that Unlucky?

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