Astros/YANKS w/analysis

Houston -108 over N.Y. YANKEES


8:00 PM EST. The Yankees limped into the playoffs and backed into hosting this Wild-Card game. All New York had to do was win one game in Baltimore in the final weekend to secure home-field but they were swept after facing starters Wei Li-Chen, Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman. The Yankees lost six of their final seven games to close out the season. New York is hosting this game because the Astros lost their final game of the year in Arizona. However, unlike the Yanks, Houston had to fend off a couple of hard-charging teams (Angels and Twins) down the stretch and they did so by winning seven of their last nine games. Houston responded under the pressure of a playoff race while the Yanks didn’t. New York was never really in any jeopardy of missing the playoffs but they didn’t respond when the Blue Jays overtook them for the AL East crown and they didn’t respond well when they needed to win a game to secure home-field for this one and done scenario.


Masahiro Tanaka has been the ace of the Yanks staff despite missing time with forearm, wrist, and now hamstring issues. Following his earlier DL stints he returned with no loss of effectiveness, and the Yankees will hope for the same in this AL Wild Card game. In his past four September starts, Tanaka demonstrated his strengths (26 K against only two walks in 27 innings) along with his weakness (four HR in those four starts) for consideration in selecting post-season starters. In his final start of the year against the Red Sox, Tanaka lasted just five innings and surrendered four earned runs while striking out just three hitters. He threw 95 pitches that day. Against Houston this year, Tanaka has thrown just five innings but they got to him for seven hits and five earned runs. Three of those hits left the yard.


This year, Dallas Keuchel threw 16 innings against the Yankees and surrendered just nine hits while not allowing a single run. He walked one batter while striking out 16. There’s more good news for Keuchel too. Umpire Eric Cooper gets the plate assignment here. Dallas Keuchel has a 23-to-2 K/BB ratio with Cooper umpiring the plate. That’s Keuchel’s best ratio with any ump who has worked the plate more than twice when he's pitched. He may not need that little nugget but it’s there. These one-and-done Wild Card games are obviously difficult to predict because anything can happen in one baseball game. It’s not like a football playoff game because football is played once a week and teams play 16 regular season games a year. The worst teams in baseball win 65 games a year. On any given day, any team can beat any team. A bloop single can win it while a hard hit ball in the gap with the bases loaded can be caught for an out.


However, for our money, we see the Astros with a much better chance of success. There is no switch in the world that can be just turned on when needed and the Yanks switch is on off right now. The Astros are set with their lineup that features speed, power and confidence while Joe Girardi is likely beside himself about his lineup. Does he start Chris Young (been good against lefties all year) or Brett Gardiner. Does he start Gardiner and Ellsbury and sit Young? Who does Girardi pencil in at second? Is it going to be Robert Refsnyder or Brendan Ryan, who went 0-7 in the final weekend and hasn’t had a hit in last 18 AB’s? What about working behind the plate? Brian McCann is seeing BB gun pellets at the plate so Girardi has to decide on a catcher between McCann’s weak bat (McCann has hit .199 since the All-Star break) and John Ryan Murphy, who hit .277 this year but only played in 67 games and had just 177 AB’s. In the end it may not matter who Girardi starts because Crush City has so many advantages in this game. That doesn’t mean the Astros will win but at this price, we’re happy to take our chances.

Pick: Astros -108

I would love for my Astros' to get this done.