[h=1]Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 6[/h]Will Harris, ESPN Contributor
ESPN INSIDER
Week 5 saw a Top 10 shakeup as Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Georgia and UCLA all took a loss. There are now six teams getting first-place votes in either the AP or coaches' poll. This week we peek in on the race in the American Athletic Conference, choose to overreact or not to Alabama whipping Georgia, break down the Big Ten's overlooked defense and explain why we're backing the Pac-12's slowly rising king this week.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday evening except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways, Week 5[/h]Bama dominates Georgia
A rare miss on Alabama has us reconsidering some things, but in general we're more likely to overreact to Georgia looking like they just didn't belong on that stage than to Alabama's efficient offensive performance. Lane Kiffin and Jake Coker both had banner days at the office, but quarterback is still an issue and this offense is still likely to prove a downgrade from the 2014 attack. The ingredients probably aren't there for the Tide to win out. Georgia's troubles run even deeper than 2015 now; more on the Dogs below.
Illinois playing defense
The Illini shut down Nebraska a week after holding a potent Middle Tennessee offense to 368 yards. New co-coordinator Mike Phair has made his mark on the defense. It's playing with enthusiasm, playing aggressively, playing together, making game-changing plays and missing a lot fewer assignments than last season. That last factor is most responsible for the dramatic improvement in the rush defense, which gave up at least 194 yards per game in each of Tim Beckman's three seasons. LinebackerMason Monheim is the key defensive leader; he and T.J. Neal are seasoned tackling machines in the middle, while safety Clayton Fejedelem and Leo rush linebacker D.J. Smoot have emerged as playmakers. This defense is ahead of a very banged-up offense right now, and for the time being will have to carry the team. Expect more low-scoring games with Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin the next three outings.
The American race shaping up
Navy and Houston passed tough tests this week, covering as favorites against Air Force and Tulsa, respectively. With Memphis, they form a formidable trio atop the American West, certainly the stronger of the two divisions out of the gate for the conference. After five weeks, there's a definite divide between the top and bottom half of the divisions. Current standings aside, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati are the best three teams in the East, and of the six teams in the bottom halves, Tulsa looks the best. The new Cure Bowl in Orlando gives this league a seventh bowl tie-in, and even just five weeks in, there's already enough separation that we'd be surprised if those slots weren't filled by the aforementioned seven schools.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 6[/h]
Georgia (-3) at Tennessee
We liked Georgia last week and saw the game as a very high-stakes affair for Mark Richt's program. This was the final exam for Georgia's two-year remodeling project. And the Dogs couldn't have looked less ready. This is a tough, tough loss that has even the faithful doubting Richt, and it will be difficult for him to navigate the program back into position for a statement opportunity as good as the one it squandered Saturday. But can Georgia follow Arkansas' lead? Need a win after a tough loss? Go to Knoxville and get healthy at the Vols' expense.
Last week we painted the Arkansas-at-Tennessee clash as a cultural referendum for a pair of struggling third-year coaches. Butch Jones' repetitive message is playing even thinner after another loss, and it's getting more challenging for the staff to keep this bunch together.
Richt's been good on the road, good off a loss and great as a small road favorite. If he can get his team angry, Georgia could run for 300 yards and Tennessee might quit. But there's certainly no floor on how hard the Bulldogs could be tanked after getting the message that they're not yet relevant. We'll have to see how they respond this week.
Missouri (+5.5) versus Florida
Florida certainly has some locker room mojo working and has been sparked offensively by the emergence of Will Grier at quarterback. But this team has spent a lot of energy the past few weeks, following up a road win at Kentucky with a series of miracles to secure an 11th straight victory over Tennessee and then an emotional blowout of third-ranked Ole Miss in a week when the team was weakened by the flu. To brush all that off and go win road games in Columbia and Baton Rouge is a tough assignment the next two weeks. We'll be trying to learn if Florida seems out of gas this week, and looking to Missouri to see whether the Tigers are an appropriate hammer if the Gators do indeed prove fade-worthy.
Missouri's Maty Mauk was suspended for the win over South Carolina and will be out indefinitely. That leaves blue-chip true freshman Drew Lock in charge of the offense. The team's anointed "quarterback of the future" had been sharing time with Mauk, and he performed well against South Carolina, completing 75 percent of his passes within a dink-and-dunk game plan that moved the chains 18 times. The Missouri offense has been struggling for reasons affected by every position group, not just spotty quarterback play, but Mauk's ongoing absence might actually serve to stabilize the offensive performance, rather than disrupt it.
Washington (+16.5) at USC
USC and Washington didn't play last season, but second-year coaches Steve Sarkisian and Chris Petersen have history. Petersen's 2012 Boise State squad nipped Sarkisian's Huskies 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl. That game was played with foreknowledge of a rematch, as the two were scheduled to open the 2013 season in Seattle. There the Huskies won 38-6, handing Petersen the most lopsided loss of his career. As head coach of Washington from 2009-13, Sarkisian coached the Huskies in their last four meetings with USC. He won two and covered three, all as underdogs, against a USC program that was then his immediate former employer. Friday, he'll oppose his old team from Seattle for the first time.
We'll be backing Washington, this week and beyond. We've written since Petersen was hired of our belief that his Huskies will win the Pac-12's next national title, and this season would start a long winning streak against rival Oregon. Expectations were low for Washington this season due to quarterback issues and a serious talent exodus on defense. There were also significant cultural differences between the way Petersen operates and the way things were done under his predecessor. But Pete is building this organization nicely, and is well on his way to conference overlord status in the coming years. Opportunities to take this many points with this burgeoning power will not come often. It's also worth noting that Petersen is 15-0 straight up and 12-3 ATS following regular-season open weeks. After Washington's only 2014 open date, the team went to California and played its best game of the season.
Purdue (+3) versus Minnesota
Minnesota's struggling offense bottomed out in a shutout loss at Northwestern, and the injuries are really starting to pile up on both sides of the ball. The Gophers were our preseason pick in the Big Ten West, but the offense hasn't found a consistent formula, and health has been a big issue. We still expect this team to close strong in late November, but the Gophers will be nearly out of the West race if they can't get past Purdue.
We might end up passing on this one given a price that asks us to win outright with a program that's 5-24 over the past three seasons and Jerry Kill's excellent record in competitively priced games. But we certainly can't back Minnesota until later in the season. Purdue is looking good with David Blough under center and is playing with as much confidence as you'll ever see a 1-4 team show. This bunch is hungry for Darrell Hazell's second conference win, and a wounded Minnesota coming off a whitewashing certainly must look like a good opportunity. That's especially true given the Gold and Black's 39-38 loss last season in Minneapolis, a performance also crafted following a moral victory/cover versus a heavily favored Michigan State squad. Purdue is much-improved over last year's standard, and this looks like a spot the Boilers will bring their best.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]Moves at the Westgate Las Vegas' futures market weren't as dramatic this week. Prices all lengthened slightly on Top 10 losers Ole Miss (10-1 to 20-1), Georgia (also 10-1 to 20-1), Notre Dame (15-1 to 30-1) and UCLA (30-1 to 50-1).
Clemson didn't move off 25-1 despite the big win, and Alabama is priced alongside Texas A&M at 15-1, a small change from the 18-1 listed prior to the Tide's demolition of Georgia. Michigan (60-1 to 25-1), Florida (100-1 to 50-1) and Utah (40-1 to 20-1) saw their prices shorten the most.
Minor shuffling at the top of the betting order leaves the current top five as:
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]Paul Johnson has been confronted with the chance to snap a two-game losing streak in each of the past five seasons, and has been an underdog of between three and 10 points each time. He's 2-3 in those spots, with the winner covering all five games.
On the other side, Dabo Swinney hasn't had to deal with many potential letdown spots like this. The Tigers' biggest wins have come in bowls, and the only Top 10 teams Clemson beat in the regular season -- Georgia in 2013 and at Miami in 2008 -- were followed by easy victories over weak FCS teams. The only other storm-the-field type moment for Clemson fans was the 2011 win over defending national champ Auburn, then ranked 23rd. That was followed by wins over a pair of teams ranked just outside the Top 10, Florida State at home and Virginia Tech on the road. Notre Dame was at least as big a game for Clemson than any of the above, and this week presents Swinney with a different test of his program's maturity.
Baylor is an amazing 45-point road favorite at Kansas this week. Our records go back to 1976, and we could not find a larger home 'dog than the Jayhawks in a power conference game. Washington State took about six touchdowns at home from both USC and Arizona in 2008. The most points Kansas has seen at home is a five-TD price from Baylor in 2013 and Oklahoma in 2011. The largest home spread in a conference game? Oregon giving Colorado 47 at Autzen in 2012.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>In the five seasons under Skip Holtz and Willie Taggart since Jim Leavitt was fired, South Florida has been favored 29 times. The Bulls are 8-21 ATS and 15-14 straight up. And the figures get worse if we remove September cupcake games. USF has covered just three out of 19 as a single-digit favorite. Syracuse is playing salty defense, and it's hard to imagine laying points with an outfit that's scored more than three touchdowns just three times in 25 FBS games under Taggart. Fellow third-year coach Scott Shafer's tenure has also been known for struggling offense, but the Orange have already scored more than three touchdowns three times this season, for a total of nine on Shafer's watch.
Akron was not favored in a MAC game in two seasons under Rob Ianello from 2010 to 2011, but since Terry Bowden came along in 2012, the Zips have enjoyed that status 11 times. They're 5-6 straight up with just one cover. We're not saying you have to go around backing Eastern Michigan all the time, but laying points on the road with a slumping Akron team with a broken offense is not part of a winning plan.
Last week brought us the highest total ever as Baylor and Texas Tech touched the 90s before closing at 89. This week Michigan and Northwestern sit at 35, the lowest total this season.
ESPN INSIDER
Week 5 saw a Top 10 shakeup as Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Georgia and UCLA all took a loss. There are now six teams getting first-place votes in either the AP or coaches' poll. This week we peek in on the race in the American Athletic Conference, choose to overreact or not to Alabama whipping Georgia, break down the Big Ten's overlooked defense and explain why we're backing the Pac-12's slowly rising king this week.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday evening except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways, Week 5[/h]Bama dominates Georgia
A rare miss on Alabama has us reconsidering some things, but in general we're more likely to overreact to Georgia looking like they just didn't belong on that stage than to Alabama's efficient offensive performance. Lane Kiffin and Jake Coker both had banner days at the office, but quarterback is still an issue and this offense is still likely to prove a downgrade from the 2014 attack. The ingredients probably aren't there for the Tide to win out. Georgia's troubles run even deeper than 2015 now; more on the Dogs below.
Illinois playing defense
The Illini shut down Nebraska a week after holding a potent Middle Tennessee offense to 368 yards. New co-coordinator Mike Phair has made his mark on the defense. It's playing with enthusiasm, playing aggressively, playing together, making game-changing plays and missing a lot fewer assignments than last season. That last factor is most responsible for the dramatic improvement in the rush defense, which gave up at least 194 yards per game in each of Tim Beckman's three seasons. LinebackerMason Monheim is the key defensive leader; he and T.J. Neal are seasoned tackling machines in the middle, while safety Clayton Fejedelem and Leo rush linebacker D.J. Smoot have emerged as playmakers. This defense is ahead of a very banged-up offense right now, and for the time being will have to carry the team. Expect more low-scoring games with Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin the next three outings.
The American race shaping up
Navy and Houston passed tough tests this week, covering as favorites against Air Force and Tulsa, respectively. With Memphis, they form a formidable trio atop the American West, certainly the stronger of the two divisions out of the gate for the conference. After five weeks, there's a definite divide between the top and bottom half of the divisions. Current standings aside, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati are the best three teams in the East, and of the six teams in the bottom halves, Tulsa looks the best. The new Cure Bowl in Orlando gives this league a seventh bowl tie-in, and even just five weeks in, there's already enough separation that we'd be surprised if those slots weren't filled by the aforementioned seven schools.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 6[/h]
Georgia (-3) at Tennessee
We liked Georgia last week and saw the game as a very high-stakes affair for Mark Richt's program. This was the final exam for Georgia's two-year remodeling project. And the Dogs couldn't have looked less ready. This is a tough, tough loss that has even the faithful doubting Richt, and it will be difficult for him to navigate the program back into position for a statement opportunity as good as the one it squandered Saturday. But can Georgia follow Arkansas' lead? Need a win after a tough loss? Go to Knoxville and get healthy at the Vols' expense.
Last week we painted the Arkansas-at-Tennessee clash as a cultural referendum for a pair of struggling third-year coaches. Butch Jones' repetitive message is playing even thinner after another loss, and it's getting more challenging for the staff to keep this bunch together.
Richt's been good on the road, good off a loss and great as a small road favorite. If he can get his team angry, Georgia could run for 300 yards and Tennessee might quit. But there's certainly no floor on how hard the Bulldogs could be tanked after getting the message that they're not yet relevant. We'll have to see how they respond this week.
Missouri (+5.5) versus Florida
Florida certainly has some locker room mojo working and has been sparked offensively by the emergence of Will Grier at quarterback. But this team has spent a lot of energy the past few weeks, following up a road win at Kentucky with a series of miracles to secure an 11th straight victory over Tennessee and then an emotional blowout of third-ranked Ole Miss in a week when the team was weakened by the flu. To brush all that off and go win road games in Columbia and Baton Rouge is a tough assignment the next two weeks. We'll be trying to learn if Florida seems out of gas this week, and looking to Missouri to see whether the Tigers are an appropriate hammer if the Gators do indeed prove fade-worthy.
Missouri's Maty Mauk was suspended for the win over South Carolina and will be out indefinitely. That leaves blue-chip true freshman Drew Lock in charge of the offense. The team's anointed "quarterback of the future" had been sharing time with Mauk, and he performed well against South Carolina, completing 75 percent of his passes within a dink-and-dunk game plan that moved the chains 18 times. The Missouri offense has been struggling for reasons affected by every position group, not just spotty quarterback play, but Mauk's ongoing absence might actually serve to stabilize the offensive performance, rather than disrupt it.
Washington (+16.5) at USC
USC and Washington didn't play last season, but second-year coaches Steve Sarkisian and Chris Petersen have history. Petersen's 2012 Boise State squad nipped Sarkisian's Huskies 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl. That game was played with foreknowledge of a rematch, as the two were scheduled to open the 2013 season in Seattle. There the Huskies won 38-6, handing Petersen the most lopsided loss of his career. As head coach of Washington from 2009-13, Sarkisian coached the Huskies in their last four meetings with USC. He won two and covered three, all as underdogs, against a USC program that was then his immediate former employer. Friday, he'll oppose his old team from Seattle for the first time.
We'll be backing Washington, this week and beyond. We've written since Petersen was hired of our belief that his Huskies will win the Pac-12's next national title, and this season would start a long winning streak against rival Oregon. Expectations were low for Washington this season due to quarterback issues and a serious talent exodus on defense. There were also significant cultural differences between the way Petersen operates and the way things were done under his predecessor. But Pete is building this organization nicely, and is well on his way to conference overlord status in the coming years. Opportunities to take this many points with this burgeoning power will not come often. It's also worth noting that Petersen is 15-0 straight up and 12-3 ATS following regular-season open weeks. After Washington's only 2014 open date, the team went to California and played its best game of the season.
Purdue (+3) versus Minnesota
Minnesota's struggling offense bottomed out in a shutout loss at Northwestern, and the injuries are really starting to pile up on both sides of the ball. The Gophers were our preseason pick in the Big Ten West, but the offense hasn't found a consistent formula, and health has been a big issue. We still expect this team to close strong in late November, but the Gophers will be nearly out of the West race if they can't get past Purdue.
We might end up passing on this one given a price that asks us to win outright with a program that's 5-24 over the past three seasons and Jerry Kill's excellent record in competitively priced games. But we certainly can't back Minnesota until later in the season. Purdue is looking good with David Blough under center and is playing with as much confidence as you'll ever see a 1-4 team show. This bunch is hungry for Darrell Hazell's second conference win, and a wounded Minnesota coming off a whitewashing certainly must look like a good opportunity. That's especially true given the Gold and Black's 39-38 loss last season in Minneapolis, a performance also crafted following a moral victory/cover versus a heavily favored Michigan State squad. Purdue is much-improved over last year's standard, and this looks like a spot the Boilers will bring their best.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]Moves at the Westgate Las Vegas' futures market weren't as dramatic this week. Prices all lengthened slightly on Top 10 losers Ole Miss (10-1 to 20-1), Georgia (also 10-1 to 20-1), Notre Dame (15-1 to 30-1) and UCLA (30-1 to 50-1).
Clemson didn't move off 25-1 despite the big win, and Alabama is priced alongside Texas A&M at 15-1, a small change from the 18-1 listed prior to the Tide's demolition of Georgia. Michigan (60-1 to 25-1), Florida (100-1 to 50-1) and Utah (40-1 to 20-1) saw their prices shorten the most.
Minor shuffling at the top of the betting order leaves the current top five as:
- Ohio State 2-1
- Baylor 6-1
- LSU 8-1
- Michigan State 10-1
- TCU 12-1
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]Paul Johnson has been confronted with the chance to snap a two-game losing streak in each of the past five seasons, and has been an underdog of between three and 10 points each time. He's 2-3 in those spots, with the winner covering all five games.
On the other side, Dabo Swinney hasn't had to deal with many potential letdown spots like this. The Tigers' biggest wins have come in bowls, and the only Top 10 teams Clemson beat in the regular season -- Georgia in 2013 and at Miami in 2008 -- were followed by easy victories over weak FCS teams. The only other storm-the-field type moment for Clemson fans was the 2011 win over defending national champ Auburn, then ranked 23rd. That was followed by wins over a pair of teams ranked just outside the Top 10, Florida State at home and Virginia Tech on the road. Notre Dame was at least as big a game for Clemson than any of the above, and this week presents Swinney with a different test of his program's maturity.
Baylor is an amazing 45-point road favorite at Kansas this week. Our records go back to 1976, and we could not find a larger home 'dog than the Jayhawks in a power conference game. Washington State took about six touchdowns at home from both USC and Arizona in 2008. The most points Kansas has seen at home is a five-TD price from Baylor in 2013 and Oklahoma in 2011. The largest home spread in a conference game? Oregon giving Colorado 47 at Autzen in 2012.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>In the five seasons under Skip Holtz and Willie Taggart since Jim Leavitt was fired, South Florida has been favored 29 times. The Bulls are 8-21 ATS and 15-14 straight up. And the figures get worse if we remove September cupcake games. USF has covered just three out of 19 as a single-digit favorite. Syracuse is playing salty defense, and it's hard to imagine laying points with an outfit that's scored more than three touchdowns just three times in 25 FBS games under Taggart. Fellow third-year coach Scott Shafer's tenure has also been known for struggling offense, but the Orange have already scored more than three touchdowns three times this season, for a total of nine on Shafer's watch.
Akron was not favored in a MAC game in two seasons under Rob Ianello from 2010 to 2011, but since Terry Bowden came along in 2012, the Zips have enjoyed that status 11 times. They're 5-6 straight up with just one cover. We're not saying you have to go around backing Eastern Michigan all the time, but laying points on the road with a slumping Akron team with a broken offense is not part of a winning plan.
Last week brought us the highest total ever as Baylor and Texas Tech touched the 90s before closing at 89. This week Michigan and Northwestern sit at 35, the lowest total this season.
