[h=1]Best Week 5 NFL contrarian bets[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
"Flat and uninspired" describes this past week's contrarian betting strategy, as teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets posted a record of 7-7 against the spread (ATS). Our Week 4 picks were 2-2 ATS, making our overall season record 7-6 ATS. The silver lining? Going against the grain still reaped profits if you were willing to take teams who finished at the bottom of the 2014 NFL standings.
Teams that finished last season with losing records (seven or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. Eliminate both games featuring two sub-.500 teams -- Tampa Bay/Washington and Chicago/Atlanta -- and the record improves to 9-0 ATS. Intriguing results when you consider that our past research has shown that bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.
In Week 1, we discussed a similar trend that focused on fading last year's playoff teams and explained how bettors overvalue high-performing teams. We wanted to take that analysis one step further this week and see if those results continued after the opener.
We found that since 2003, teams that failed to make the playoffs in one season have performed poorly in the subsequent season, posting a 1,980-2,008 (49.6 percent) ATS record. This was not the outcome we hoped to find, but perhaps we weren't looking at the ideal criteria. What about the league's worst teams? What about the teams that squares wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole?<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Bettors can be quick to react, and sometimes it's tough to get that unpleasant taste of defeat out of your mouth. We wanted to examine whether bettors have historically undervalued the league's laughingstocks and whipping boys.
Although teams who missed the playoffs were not profitable, our research found that there has been an edge betting on teams that won six or fewer games during the previous season. In fact, these teams have posted a 956-879 ATS (52.1 percent record) with 29.06 units won.
Knowing that bettors are prone to overvalue favorites and home-field advantage, we hypothesized that these results could be improved by examining road underdogs.
Over the past 12 seasons, teams with six or fewer wins in the previous season have been underdogs in 64.9 percent of their games. In games where they were also visitors, teams fitting these criteria have gone 407-337 ATS (54.7 percent). This includes an 89-55 ATS (61.8 percent) record over the past two-plus seasons.
Since underdogs historically provide additional value in low-scoring games, we can eliminate any game with a closing total exceeding 48.
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<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 5 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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Why does this work?
As we mentioned in our Week 1 article, bettors are highly influenced by past results and are unlikely to take teams who have burned them in the past. This is particularly interesting because posting a good win-loss record doesn't necessarily correlate with a good performance against the spread.
Whenever the bettors across the sports betting marketplace have a negative impression of a team, oddsmakers will shade their lines to account for the inevitable influx of money on their opponent. This (often false) public perception creates value for opportunistic bettors who are willing to swoop in and take the underdog at an inflated price.
Points are at a premium in games with low totals, and this disproportionately benefits the underdog. This is especially true when the underdog features a solid running game, since that keeps the clock running and limits the number of possessions.
[h=2]Week 5 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
After starting the season 0-3, the Bears finally got their first win of the season last week against the Raiders. Despite this glimmer of hope, Chicago opened as a 10-point underdog in Sunday's showdown with the Chiefs. Since 2003, double-digit underdogs have gone 218-188 ATS (53.7 percent), and that winning percentage jumps to 55.7 percent ATS when the total is less than 48 (this game is at 44.5). The Bears offense looked much improved with Jay Cutler behind center, and we'll gladly take the points in this road game.
Washington Redskins (+7.5) atAtlanta Falcons
The Falcons have started the season 4-0 and are one of just six remaining undefeated teams in the league. This hot start has pushed the Falcons' odds of winning the Super Bowl from 30-1 to 14-1, and bettors seem to be buying the hype.
Atlanta opened as an 8-point favorite and has received 76 percent of early spread bets. Despite this one-sided public betting, the Falcons have actually dropped from -8 to -7.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money likes the Redskins in this matchup.
There are a number of other sharp money indicators, as well. The Redskins fit our 2014 NFL betting against the public report and last year's Week 9 betting system, which examines how bettors overreact to teams who cover the spread by 10-plus points.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on Washington and sell high on Atlanta. Between Matt Jones and Alfred Morris, the Redskins running game has looked solid this season. With DeSean Jackson potentially returning this week, Washington's offense may be better than people expect.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People say that death and taxes are the only certainties in life, but there are a few other things that could be added to that list: people on the Internet will continue to have an unhealthy obsession with cats, and bettors will refuse to take the Jaguars.
In our database (going back to 2003), Jacksonville has received the majority of public bets in just 36.8 percent of its games. However, the Jaguars are receiving more than 50 percent of spread bets -- 58 percent to be exact -- for just the third time since 2013.
Jacksonville currently fits our Week 3 analysis, which focuses on road 'dogs after a loss, and we're happy to take the points in this matchup.
St. Louis Rams (+9) at Green Bay Packers
Is there a more unpredictable team in football this season than the Rams? In four games this season, they have beaten two Super Bowl front runners (Seattle and Arizona) while losing to two marginal opponents (Washington and a beat-up Pittsburgh).
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Oddsmakers apparently put more stock in those two losses than the wins, because St. Louis opened as a 9.5-point underdog for Sunday's game against Green Bay. Although early betting has been fairly balanced, we do have a few indicators that the Rams are offering value this week.
St. Louis fits our betting system that looks at teams who are contrarian road 'dogs in back-to-back games (since 2003) and has posted a 119-81 ATS record (59.5 percent) with plus-32.27 units won and a 16.1 percent return on investment. Many sharp offshore sportsbooks have dropped the Rams from +10 to +9, so make sure to shop for the best line before placing this bet.
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
ESPN INSIDER
"Flat and uninspired" describes this past week's contrarian betting strategy, as teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets posted a record of 7-7 against the spread (ATS). Our Week 4 picks were 2-2 ATS, making our overall season record 7-6 ATS. The silver lining? Going against the grain still reaped profits if you were willing to take teams who finished at the bottom of the 2014 NFL standings.
Teams that finished last season with losing records (seven or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. Eliminate both games featuring two sub-.500 teams -- Tampa Bay/Washington and Chicago/Atlanta -- and the record improves to 9-0 ATS. Intriguing results when you consider that our past research has shown that bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.
In Week 1, we discussed a similar trend that focused on fading last year's playoff teams and explained how bettors overvalue high-performing teams. We wanted to take that analysis one step further this week and see if those results continued after the opener.
We found that since 2003, teams that failed to make the playoffs in one season have performed poorly in the subsequent season, posting a 1,980-2,008 (49.6 percent) ATS record. This was not the outcome we hoped to find, but perhaps we weren't looking at the ideal criteria. What about the league's worst teams? What about the teams that squares wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole?<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Bettors can be quick to react, and sometimes it's tough to get that unpleasant taste of defeat out of your mouth. We wanted to examine whether bettors have historically undervalued the league's laughingstocks and whipping boys.
Although teams who missed the playoffs were not profitable, our research found that there has been an edge betting on teams that won six or fewer games during the previous season. In fact, these teams have posted a 956-879 ATS (52.1 percent record) with 29.06 units won.
Knowing that bettors are prone to overvalue favorites and home-field advantage, we hypothesized that these results could be improved by examining road underdogs.
Over the past 12 seasons, teams with six or fewer wins in the previous season have been underdogs in 64.9 percent of their games. In games where they were also visitors, teams fitting these criteria have gone 407-337 ATS (54.7 percent). This includes an 89-55 ATS (61.8 percent) record over the past two-plus seasons.
Since underdogs historically provide additional value in low-scoring games, we can eliminate any game with a closing total exceeding 48.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team won 6 or fewer games last season | 956-879 (52.1%) | +29.06 | +1.6% |
| Road 'dog, won ≤ 6 games last season | 407-337 (54.7%) | +50.38 | +6.8% |
| Road 'dog, won ≤ 6 games last season, O/U ≤ 48 | 381-295 (56.4%) | +67.77 | +10.0% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 5 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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Why does this work?
As we mentioned in our Week 1 article, bettors are highly influenced by past results and are unlikely to take teams who have burned them in the past. This is particularly interesting because posting a good win-loss record doesn't necessarily correlate with a good performance against the spread.
Whenever the bettors across the sports betting marketplace have a negative impression of a team, oddsmakers will shade their lines to account for the inevitable influx of money on their opponent. This (often false) public perception creates value for opportunistic bettors who are willing to swoop in and take the underdog at an inflated price.
Points are at a premium in games with low totals, and this disproportionately benefits the underdog. This is especially true when the underdog features a solid running game, since that keeps the clock running and limits the number of possessions.
[h=2]Week 5 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
After starting the season 0-3, the Bears finally got their first win of the season last week against the Raiders. Despite this glimmer of hope, Chicago opened as a 10-point underdog in Sunday's showdown with the Chiefs. Since 2003, double-digit underdogs have gone 218-188 ATS (53.7 percent), and that winning percentage jumps to 55.7 percent ATS when the total is less than 48 (this game is at 44.5). The Bears offense looked much improved with Jay Cutler behind center, and we'll gladly take the points in this road game.
Washington Redskins (+7.5) atAtlanta Falcons
The Falcons have started the season 4-0 and are one of just six remaining undefeated teams in the league. This hot start has pushed the Falcons' odds of winning the Super Bowl from 30-1 to 14-1, and bettors seem to be buying the hype.
Atlanta opened as an 8-point favorite and has received 76 percent of early spread bets. Despite this one-sided public betting, the Falcons have actually dropped from -8 to -7.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money likes the Redskins in this matchup.
There are a number of other sharp money indicators, as well. The Redskins fit our 2014 NFL betting against the public report and last year's Week 9 betting system, which examines how bettors overreact to teams who cover the spread by 10-plus points.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on Washington and sell high on Atlanta. Between Matt Jones and Alfred Morris, the Redskins running game has looked solid this season. With DeSean Jackson potentially returning this week, Washington's offense may be better than people expect.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People say that death and taxes are the only certainties in life, but there are a few other things that could be added to that list: people on the Internet will continue to have an unhealthy obsession with cats, and bettors will refuse to take the Jaguars.
In our database (going back to 2003), Jacksonville has received the majority of public bets in just 36.8 percent of its games. However, the Jaguars are receiving more than 50 percent of spread bets -- 58 percent to be exact -- for just the third time since 2013.
Jacksonville currently fits our Week 3 analysis, which focuses on road 'dogs after a loss, and we're happy to take the points in this matchup.
St. Louis Rams (+9) at Green Bay Packers
Is there a more unpredictable team in football this season than the Rams? In four games this season, they have beaten two Super Bowl front runners (Seattle and Arizona) while losing to two marginal opponents (Washington and a beat-up Pittsburgh).
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</article>Oddsmakers apparently put more stock in those two losses than the wins, because St. Louis opened as a 9.5-point underdog for Sunday's game against Green Bay. Although early betting has been fairly balanced, we do have a few indicators that the Rams are offering value this week.
St. Louis fits our betting system that looks at teams who are contrarian road 'dogs in back-to-back games (since 2003) and has posted a 119-81 ATS record (59.5 percent) with plus-32.27 units won and a 16.1 percent return on investment. Many sharp offshore sportsbooks have dropped the Rams from +10 to +9, so make sure to shop for the best line before placing this bet.
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
