Week 5 NFL Betting Nuggets You Should Know

HacheMan · Oct 11, 2015

[h=1]Chalk points: Week 5 betting nuggets you should know[/h]
Evan Abrams, ESPN Chalk

[h=2]Seattle-Cincinnati[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

When early Week 5 point spreads came out from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook on Sept. 30, Seattle was listed as a 2.5-point road favorite against Cincinnati. After Cincinnati's big win at home against Kansas City, the Bengals opened as a 1-point favorite against the Seahawks. After Monday Night Football and Seattle barely surviving at home against Detroit, Cincinnati was moved to a 3-point home favorite.
Since the beginning of the 2013 regular season, Seattle has been a point-spread underdog four times with a record of 1-3 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS).

YEAR	SPREAD	OPP	RESULT
2015	+3.5	Green Bay	L, 27-17
2014	+1	San Francisco	W, 19-3
2014	+1	Kansas City	L, 24-20
2013	+2.5	San Francisco	L, 19-17
Regular season, since 2013

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Since 2012, Russell Wilson's first season in Seattle, he is 6-8 SU/ATS playing games that start at 1 p.m. ET, including the playoffs. Since the start of the 2014 regular season, Seattle and Wilson are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in that situation.

[h=2]Jacksonville-Tampa Bay[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

Jacksonville is 2-2 ATS this season and has not ended the regular season better than .500 ATS since 2010.
Jacksonville has not been a road favorite since Nov. 13, 2011 vs. Indianapolis (Jacksonville entered -3 and won 17-3).

[h=2]Buffalo-Tennessee[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

Tennessee has not been favored at home since Oct. 12, 2014 against Jacksonville. That is seven straight home games as an underdog (0-6 SU/2-4 ATS), including this week against Buffalo.
Buffalo has only been a road favorite four times in the past five seasons (Buffalo is 2-2 SU/ATS).

[h=2]Chicago-Kansas City[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

Jay Cutler has only been an underdog of 10 or more three times in his career and is 0-3 SU/ATS in those games.
Kansas City has been a favorite of eight or more six times in the past 10 seasons and the Chiefs are 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS in those games.

[h=2]Washington-Atlanta[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

Matt Ryan is 14-1 SU/7-8 ATS as a home favorite of a touchdown or more in his career. Ryan's only loss came in his most recent game as a favorite of a touchdown or more, against the Jets in 2013.

[h=2]New England-Dallas[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

Dallas is currently a 9-point underdog at home vs. New England. During the past 20 seasons, the only game Dallas was a larger home underdog in was against Tampa Bay in 2001.

YEAR	SPREAD	OPP	RESULT
2001	+9.5	Tampa Bay	L, 10-6
2013	+7.5	Denver	L, 51-48
2001	+7.5	Philadelphia	L, 36-3
2000	+7.5	Minnesota	L, 27-15
2013	+7	Philadelphia	L, 24-22
Last 20 seasons

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Bill Belichick is 6-2 SU/ATS on the road coming off of a bye week in the regular season.

[h=2]San Francisco-New York (N)[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

New York has been a 6-point favorite or higher six times over the past four seasons and is 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS.
San Francisco has been an underdog in prime time 13 times in the past 10 seasons and is 5-8 SU/7-6 ATS.
San Francisco has not been an underdog of a touchdown or more in prime time since 2010 vs. San Diego.

[h=2]Pittsburgh-San Diego[/h]Current matchup intel from PickCenter

When early Week 5 point spreads came out from the Westgate on Sept. 30, San Diego was listed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh. After San Diego's close win at home against Cleveland, San Diego opened as just a 3-point favorite against Pittsburgh.
Philip Rivers has not been a home favorite in prime time since Nov. 1, 2012.
Rivers is 10-4 SU/ATS as a home favorite in prime time in his career. Rivers, though, has not been as good lately in this spot (3-3 SU/ATS since 2009).

[h=2]Quick hitters[/h]

Joe Flacco (BAL): 43-8 SU/27-23-1 ATS as a home favorite in his career. Flacco is 14-6 SU/7-12-1 ATS as a home favorite against divisional opponents.
Bruce Arians (ARI): Amazing track record as a favorite. Including his interim coaching job with Indianapolis, Arians is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS as a favorite. Arians lost as a favorite last week against St. Louis.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): Has not lost as a touchdown favorite at home since Nov. 4, 2013 vs. Chicago (Rodgers was hurt in the first half and left the game, Green Bay lost 27-20). Prior to that, the last time Rodgers lost as a touchdown favorite at home was Jan. 15, 2012 in the playoffs against the Giants.
Peyton Manning (DEN): 6-0 SU/ATS vs. Oakland as Denver's quarterback.

Week 5 NFL Betting Nuggets You Should Know

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HacheMan

hacheman@therx.com

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