How To Bet Sunday Night's 49ers/Giants NFL Game

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]How to bet San Francisco-New York (N)[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
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and the New York Giants. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
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[h=2]Matchup: San Francisco 49ersat New York Giants[/h]Spread: Opened New York -7; remains New York -7
Total: Opened 43.0; now 43.5



[h=2]Over/under[/h]Erin Rynning: Any hope for the seemingly hopeless 49ers offense would link to the running game. The Giants' 4.9 yards allowed per carry was an NFL worst last season, but this season they rank tied for first in the early going, allowing 3.1 yards per carry. Their true defensive skill is probably somewhere between those extremes, which makes this handicap tricky. I made both the side and total numbers right in line with the Las Vegas current numbers. I'll simply pass the Sunday night game this week.
Dave Tuley: The spread seems about right to me, and I'm leery about betting the 49ers again. In fact, this might be a game where the Giants coast to victory. The over/under is set kind of low at 43.5, so I'm going to pass on this game all around.
The pick: Lean under 43.5

[h=2]Against the spread[/h]Wunderdog: The banged-up Giants are 2-2 on the season and have been a big underdog twice and a small favorite twice. But after an upset win at Buffalo, they are now a significant favorite? Not so fast. The young Giants secondary is still ailing and ranked dead last against the pass, allowing 316.3 yards per game. New York would have allowed even more last week if run-oriented Buffalo hadn't negated several big passing plays with foolish penalties. San Francisco is in town and ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing. The Giants have two huge divisional games on deck against rivals Philadelphia and Dallas. This is a look-ahead spot for the home team. Take the points on San Francisco.
ATS pick: San Francisco +7

[h=2]Prop bets[/h]90.5 receiving yards by Odell Beckham Jr. (O/U -110)
John Parolin: Odell Beckham Jr. is not sneaking up on anyone this year. After posting one of the most impressive rookie seasons in league history, Beckham has only topped 90 yards once in his first four games this year. It hasn't been because of the emergence of another target -- there's been no sign of Victor Cruzyet. Beckham averaged 10.7 and 10.0 targets per game in the last two seasons, so he's just as involved. He just hasn't been as productive.
Beckham has caught two-thirds of his targets in a game once this year after connecting on two-thirds of his targets in 10 games last year. As an established receiver in his second year, Beckham's getting much more attention from defenses now and hasn't broken away for the big gains as often as he did last year. Beckham had 16 plays for at least 20 yards in 12 games last year (1.3 per game), compared to three in four games this year. The 49ers won't deny Beckham receptions, because who can? He's got at least five in 13 straight games. But San Francisco has allowed fewer yards after reception than the Bills and Cowboys -- two teams that held Beckham well below 90 receiving yards. Until another threat can take the pressure off Beckham (waiting on you, Mr. Cruz), he'll get all of San Francisco's attention.
The play: Under
18.5 completions by 49ers (O/U -110)
Team completions instead of Colin Kaepernick's -- ouch. It was less than three years ago that Kaepernick had his team within three points of a Super Bowl win, and now Vegas is couching his presence in case Blaine Gabbert makes an appearance. What's worse is Gabbert may be the only way the over works here, but considering 49ers coach Jim Tomsula has spent all week endorsing Kaepernick and building up his confidence, it would be a stretch to see him replaced this quickly. But the guy just plain hasn't been good -- he's thrown or run for three touchdowns this year, and they've all come when trailing by at least 25 points.

But garbage time has paid plenty of times before, so let's dig into the numbers. Garbage time completions would largely come by taking what the defense gives you, namely short throws. Kaepernick has completed 67.5 percent of throws 10 yards downfield or less, 23rd in the NFL. That's hardly a ringing endorsement, and it gets even worse when looking at his off-target percentage. Kaepernick has flat-out missed (over- or underthrown) on 18 percent of his short throws, the third-worst percentage in the league. Only Ryan Mallett and Jameis Winston miss more often than Kaepernick. Since Week 10 last year, the 49ers have completed 18 or fewer passes in 10 of 12 games, so -- and don't expect to hear this very often -- unless Gabbert comes in to save the day, don't count on Kaepernick.
The play: Under
 

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