How to bet New York (N) vs. Philadelphia
NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Matchup: New York Giants vs.Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: opened Philadelphia -3.5; now Philadelphia -5.5
Total: opened 50; now 49.5
ATS picks
Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: The public is jumping on the New York bandwagon, as the Giants have won three straight games and most people believe they should be 5-0 if not for blowing late leads the first two weeks against Dallas and Atlanta.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: There are some sharps on the Giants, as well, though some bet the Eagles at -3.5.
Tuley's take: I agree with the consensus opinion that the Giants have played better this season. In fact, the Eagles were expected to have one of the top offenses this year yet rank only 21st in yards per game, while the Giants are ninth. I would feel better about this play if Odell Beckham Jr. were 100 percent or Victor Cruz were able to make his season debut, but Eli Manning has done well with whomever they've plugged into the lineup.
The pick: Giants
Erin Rynning says: The NFC East is down this year with attrition and injury, and I've generally looked to bet against these two teams. The Giants have bounced back nicely after two tough losses to open the season. Still, their upside is limited and they will face key questions Monday night, including the availability of Beckham. But the Eagles just haven't clicked for an entire game this season. Their spotty play doesn't allow me confidence as more than a field goal favorites. Chip Kelly finally made a few key adjustments on offense last week, but playing the New Orleans Saints defense must be kept in mind. Sam Bradford continues to look shaky behind center and the edge at the quarterback position must be given to Manning. The questionable status of Beckham will keep me to a lean, but there's simply not much difference between these two rivals as I side slightly to the Giants.
The pick: Lean to the Giants
Prop bets
Will Eli Manning throw an interception? (Yes -140, No +120)
John Parolin says: It wasn't long ago that "Eli Manning" and "interception" were almost permanently joined in game recap sentences every Monday morning. Manning threw a ridiculous 27 interceptions in 2013, five more than any other player. But since Ben McAdoo took over as offensive coordinator in 2014, the Giants passing game has prioritized ball security and efficiency. For the purposes of this bet, Manning has responded well. He's thrown an interception in only 10 of 21 games since the start of 2014 -- too close to call in a pick 'em, but conclusive enough given the lines involved.
There are other splits to look at, but none of them support a "yes" play at -140. Manning threw interceptions in only three of eight games against divisional opponents since 2014, making the "no" look even better at +120. Primetime games for Manning under McAdoo follow the same approximate 50-50 split (four of eight games). The Eagles defense has interceptions in three of five games this season, but those games were against Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees andMatt Ryan -- three quarterbacks more likely to throw interceptions than Manning since 2014 (eighth among qualified quarterbacks in interception percentage). If this was over/under minus-110, it's a tougher call, but take the bigger reward here.
The play: No
25.5 completions by Eli Manning (O/U -110)
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</article>How's this for hard-hitting original analysis? Chip Kelly likes to play fast. Eagles opponents are averaging more than 34 minutes of possession per game, highest in the league. So what does "Chip Kelly likes to play fast" mean when applied to season averages? The Eagles defense has been on the field for a league-high 72.6 snaps per game. That's a lot of opportunity for Manning to complete passes -- especially with the Giants dropping back to pass on 63 percent of plays.
Applying New York's play-calling percentage to the Eagles' defensive snap averages gets 45.7 dropbacks per game. Eli hasn't taken sacks often this year -- his 2.0 sack percentage is the second lowest in the league. So take approximately one sack away from the dropbacks average, and Manning will have 44.7 pass attempts. New York's high-efficiency passing game has Eli Manning completing 66.5 percent of his pass attempts this year. Two-thirds of Manning's approximately 45 pass attempts gets 30 completions. In a minus-110 over/under, that's enough of a cushion to find some value.
The play: Over
NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Spread: opened Philadelphia -3.5; now Philadelphia -5.5
Total: opened 50; now 49.5
ATS picks
Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: The public is jumping on the New York bandwagon, as the Giants have won three straight games and most people believe they should be 5-0 if not for blowing late leads the first two weeks against Dallas and Atlanta.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: There are some sharps on the Giants, as well, though some bet the Eagles at -3.5.
Tuley's take: I agree with the consensus opinion that the Giants have played better this season. In fact, the Eagles were expected to have one of the top offenses this year yet rank only 21st in yards per game, while the Giants are ninth. I would feel better about this play if Odell Beckham Jr. were 100 percent or Victor Cruz were able to make his season debut, but Eli Manning has done well with whomever they've plugged into the lineup.
The pick: Giants
Erin Rynning says: The NFC East is down this year with attrition and injury, and I've generally looked to bet against these two teams. The Giants have bounced back nicely after two tough losses to open the season. Still, their upside is limited and they will face key questions Monday night, including the availability of Beckham. But the Eagles just haven't clicked for an entire game this season. Their spotty play doesn't allow me confidence as more than a field goal favorites. Chip Kelly finally made a few key adjustments on offense last week, but playing the New Orleans Saints defense must be kept in mind. Sam Bradford continues to look shaky behind center and the edge at the quarterback position must be given to Manning. The questionable status of Beckham will keep me to a lean, but there's simply not much difference between these two rivals as I side slightly to the Giants.
The pick: Lean to the Giants
Prop bets
Will Eli Manning throw an interception? (Yes -140, No +120)
John Parolin says: It wasn't long ago that "Eli Manning" and "interception" were almost permanently joined in game recap sentences every Monday morning. Manning threw a ridiculous 27 interceptions in 2013, five more than any other player. But since Ben McAdoo took over as offensive coordinator in 2014, the Giants passing game has prioritized ball security and efficiency. For the purposes of this bet, Manning has responded well. He's thrown an interception in only 10 of 21 games since the start of 2014 -- too close to call in a pick 'em, but conclusive enough given the lines involved.
There are other splits to look at, but none of them support a "yes" play at -140. Manning threw interceptions in only three of eight games against divisional opponents since 2014, making the "no" look even better at +120. Primetime games for Manning under McAdoo follow the same approximate 50-50 split (four of eight games). The Eagles defense has interceptions in three of five games this season, but those games were against Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees andMatt Ryan -- three quarterbacks more likely to throw interceptions than Manning since 2014 (eighth among qualified quarterbacks in interception percentage). If this was over/under minus-110, it's a tougher call, but take the bigger reward here.
The play: No
25.5 completions by Eli Manning (O/U -110)
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</article>How's this for hard-hitting original analysis? Chip Kelly likes to play fast. Eagles opponents are averaging more than 34 minutes of possession per game, highest in the league. So what does "Chip Kelly likes to play fast" mean when applied to season averages? The Eagles defense has been on the field for a league-high 72.6 snaps per game. That's a lot of opportunity for Manning to complete passes -- especially with the Giants dropping back to pass on 63 percent of plays.
Applying New York's play-calling percentage to the Eagles' defensive snap averages gets 45.7 dropbacks per game. Eli hasn't taken sacks often this year -- his 2.0 sack percentage is the second lowest in the league. So take approximately one sack away from the dropbacks average, and Manning will have 44.7 pass attempts. New York's high-efficiency passing game has Eli Manning completing 66.5 percent of his pass attempts this year. Two-thirds of Manning's approximately 45 pass attempts gets 30 completions. In a minus-110 over/under, that's enough of a cushion to find some value.
The play: Over
