[h=1]Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 8[/h]Will Harris, ESPN Contributor
ESPN INSIDER
In Week 7, Stanford, Iowa, Alabama and Utah State made statements in their leagues; Memphis made one outside of its league; and Notre Dame, Utah and LSU passed significant tests.
This week, we warn you off a couple of the 14 unbeatens, look at the 18 teams the futures market says remain contenders to win the national title, and explore what's happened so far in 2015 when the oddsmakers and pollsters disagree.
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Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways, Week 7[/h]The undefeateds
Fourteen remain: three each from the AAC, Big 12 and Big Ten; two from the ACC; and one each from the SEC, Pac-12 and MAC. Of that crowd, the teams we're least likely to back during the season's second half are Temple and Florida State.
The Seminoles have committed only one turnover this season and are still scraping by versus a lineup of rebuilding ACC foes. Everett Golsonhas been everything that could have reasonably been hoped for and more, yet without Dalvin Cook's explosiveness, this is a league-average offense. And what happens when this team finally posts a negative turnover margin? It gets beat, that's what. Maybe badly.
Temple is 104th nationally in total offense despite facing the defenses of Cincinnati, Massachusetts, Charlotte, Tulane and Central Florida. That's like failing a test about your own life.
Is Alabama a top-four team?
Some are calling the Crimson Tide the nation's best team. The polls say eighth. ESPN's Football Power Index says third. Our outlook on Alabama is pretty much what it was in the preseason, an 11-2 or 10-3 team that's in the hunt but ultimately falls short of defending its SEC championship.
The offense has revealed its identity. Bama will protect its shaky passing game by running the ball more than last year, and Derrick Henry will get a higher percentage of the team's carries than previous lead backs. Jake Coker is entrenched at quarterback, a known yet improving commodity who will see no designed runs, but he isn't afraid to wield his big frame when scrambling. Bama will run jet sweeps and various wide receiver screens to get the ball in the hands of ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley. Richard Mullaney will continue to excel as the possession guy.
The bad news for the offense is that like Coker, the offensive line's ceiling falls considerably short of all-SEC caliber. Resolution at quarterback helped, but the O-line entered the season with just three players who had more than three career starts, and the line still needs to develop more leadership throughout. The next step is to get more production from running back Kenyan Drake and tight end O.J. Howard.
The rush defense has fulfilled its lofty potential, and the secondary started to turn the corner with the 2014 recruiting class. In 2011, Alabama had what could reasonably be called the best pass defense in the sport's history. It's been in steady decline since then. Until now, that is. Recruiting misses, failure to adequately plan for early exits to the NFL, and the departure of secondary coach Jeremy Pruitt all contributed, and all have been addressed. The hiring of Mel Tucker gave the Tide a defensive backfield coach for the first time since 2012, and underclassmen like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey are future all-conference stars who are already at least SEC-average.
The biggest reason for pessimism is special teams, never a Nick Saban strong suit. The kicking game has been the weakest part of the Alabama program since Saban walked in the door, and it's not likely to get any better until wholesale changes are made in the way those units are coached and prepared.
Offensive leadership is an issue, but this is a coachable team with a good attitude, work ethic and solid chemistry. There's a lot to like, especially on defense, but this bunch isn't good enough to bring less than its A-game to November, and the offense has an uglier downside than it's shown. Special teams played a pivotal role in the first loss, just as they will in the next one.
Overall, we're with the pollsters on this one. A top-10 team, but not as good as last year's edition, and most importantly, a lower ceiling on further improvement from the midway point of the season. Credit is being given for beating two other top-10 teams on the road, but does anybody really think that when 2015 is in the books we'll all be looking at Georgia and Texas A&M as top-10 teams? How do Ole Miss and Wisconsin look compared with the way they looked on the eve of their games with Alabama? What about upcoming foes Tennessee and Auburn? The schedule isn't shaping up as tough as it appeared in the preseason, and that's true of just about every team in the league. Even the better SEC teams have holes, and there are more disappointments than pleasant surprises; a couple teams are in danger of really tanking hard.
Three numbers making bad teams bad
Troy's plays run per game: 65
Troy is 0-5 versus the FBS and just dropped a home game to an Idaho team whose trip was so delayed that it arrived at its team hotel in Montgomery (an hour from Troy) at about 9 a.m. Saturday ahead of a 2:30 kickoff. First-year coach (and Mike Leach disciple) Neal Brown is building the program around a tempo-based, Air Raid-style offense that aspires to snap the ball as often as possible, but the Trojans have run barely 65 plays per game, one of the lowest marks in the nation.
UCF's yards per rush: 1.98
Central Florida is a disaster in what will surely be George O'Leary's final season. UCF is one of only four winless FBS teams, a list that also includes Kansas, North Texas and New Mexico State. There are struggles in every unit, but the biggest problem is the total inability to get anything going on the ground. The team's yards per rush each season from 2012 onward: 4.83, 4.41, 3.16, 1.98.
Maryland's turnover margin: minus-11
Maryland has been outgained by more than 1,000 yards during a 2-4 start, and coach Randy Edsall has been dismissed. But the biggest problem is an FBS-worst turnover margin of minus-1.83 per game, totaling minus-11 for the season.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 8[/h]
SMU Mustangs (+12) at South Florida Bulls
South Florida is showing some offensive punch to complement workhorseMarlon Mack now that Quinton Flowers' playmaking ability is installed under center, and the Bulls are trying to win three straight for the first time since 2011. The last time South Florida laid double digits was in a 14-13 win at SMU last year. The Bulls are better than last year's edition, but what SMU is putting on the field isn't even on the same planet as last year's Mustangs. This year's group is a losing team with a winning attitude and can trade punches with the new and improved South Florida offense.
Rice Owls (-9.5) versus Army Black Knights
Army has been one of the worst road programs imaginable, going 0-20 in the opponent's house from 2011-14 and, somewhat amazingly, covering just one of those games. Prosperity under ninth-year coach David Bailiff has brought Rice more opportunities to play as the favorite lately, and the Owls have responded, going 14-4 ATS when laying points since the beginning of 2013. Bailiff's teams handle business when they're supposed to win and they don't beat themselves, more than can be said of an error-prone Army program that's split its past six games against FCS opponents.
The Knights squeaked past Bucknell last week and haven't won consecutive games since 2010. Exclude games with Air Force and Navy, and Army hasn't even covered the spread after a win since 2010. Rice is coming off an open date after a comeback win at Florida Atlantic.
Ball State Cardinals (+7.5) versus Central Michigan Chippewas
Regular readers know we love what Pete Lembo is doing at Ball State, but his program just suffered its worst loss since he arrived, dropping a home game to Georgia State. Injuries and lack of size on defense have made stopping opponents a challenge, although this outfit can move the ball. The Cardinals have lost consecutive games to superior teams more than once, but in Lembo's tenure they have yet to string together back-to-back dud efforts. We can count on them to play much better this week, especially offensively.
Will that be enough against a Central Michigan team that's covered eight straight games dating back to the miracle in the Bahamas Bowl? Hard to say, but favoring the underdog's efforts is the fact that the Chippewas' rout of Buffalo last week was a case of the winner playing its best game of the year and the loser playing its worst. Central Michigan drew a moral victory from its near comeback from 18 down against rival Western Michigan, turned that into its best week of preparation yet, and drilled a flat Buffalo squad coming off its first open date under a new staff. This week's Chips won't be as good as they looked last week, and Ball is certainly going to show better.
Virginia Cavaliers (+18) at North Carolina Tar Heels
The program that's a perfect fit for Lembo's talents still has a coach, though if Virginia hadn't come from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to outlast Syracuse in three overtimes, the Cavaliers would be 1-5 and there might have been an immediate opening. But the Cavs pulled it out and now have great energy and momentum heading into the annual matchup with their oldest rival. These teams are familiar with each other, and Virginia has confidence after last year's one-point loss.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]The only team at 100-1, Georgia is 19th in the national championship futures betting order at the Westgate. Here are the 18 teams whose chances the oddsmakers take more seriously than that. It's very nearly the same top 18 as the media poll:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px 0px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
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</article>The Week 8 movers include a pair of big MAC favorites. Western Michigan was bet from its opener of -22 versus Miami up to -25, while Bowling Green is now -14.5 at Kent after opening -10.
North Carolina saw big action last week ahead of its beatdown of Wake Forest, and the Heels are again the early choice, moving from -13 to -18 against Virginia.
Bettors drove Nebraska's price across a key number, from -6.5 at open to now -8 versus Northwestern.
Penn State has also crossed seven, in the other direction. The Lions opened -8 at Maryland but now lay just -6.5.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]
ESPN INSIDER
In Week 7, Stanford, Iowa, Alabama and Utah State made statements in their leagues; Memphis made one outside of its league; and Notre Dame, Utah and LSU passed significant tests.
This week, we warn you off a couple of the 14 unbeatens, look at the 18 teams the futures market says remain contenders to win the national title, and explore what's happened so far in 2015 when the oddsmakers and pollsters disagree.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways, Week 7[/h]The undefeateds
Fourteen remain: three each from the AAC, Big 12 and Big Ten; two from the ACC; and one each from the SEC, Pac-12 and MAC. Of that crowd, the teams we're least likely to back during the season's second half are Temple and Florida State.
The Seminoles have committed only one turnover this season and are still scraping by versus a lineup of rebuilding ACC foes. Everett Golsonhas been everything that could have reasonably been hoped for and more, yet without Dalvin Cook's explosiveness, this is a league-average offense. And what happens when this team finally posts a negative turnover margin? It gets beat, that's what. Maybe badly.
Temple is 104th nationally in total offense despite facing the defenses of Cincinnati, Massachusetts, Charlotte, Tulane and Central Florida. That's like failing a test about your own life.
Is Alabama a top-four team?
Some are calling the Crimson Tide the nation's best team. The polls say eighth. ESPN's Football Power Index says third. Our outlook on Alabama is pretty much what it was in the preseason, an 11-2 or 10-3 team that's in the hunt but ultimately falls short of defending its SEC championship.
The offense has revealed its identity. Bama will protect its shaky passing game by running the ball more than last year, and Derrick Henry will get a higher percentage of the team's carries than previous lead backs. Jake Coker is entrenched at quarterback, a known yet improving commodity who will see no designed runs, but he isn't afraid to wield his big frame when scrambling. Bama will run jet sweeps and various wide receiver screens to get the ball in the hands of ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley. Richard Mullaney will continue to excel as the possession guy.
The bad news for the offense is that like Coker, the offensive line's ceiling falls considerably short of all-SEC caliber. Resolution at quarterback helped, but the O-line entered the season with just three players who had more than three career starts, and the line still needs to develop more leadership throughout. The next step is to get more production from running back Kenyan Drake and tight end O.J. Howard.
The rush defense has fulfilled its lofty potential, and the secondary started to turn the corner with the 2014 recruiting class. In 2011, Alabama had what could reasonably be called the best pass defense in the sport's history. It's been in steady decline since then. Until now, that is. Recruiting misses, failure to adequately plan for early exits to the NFL, and the departure of secondary coach Jeremy Pruitt all contributed, and all have been addressed. The hiring of Mel Tucker gave the Tide a defensive backfield coach for the first time since 2012, and underclassmen like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey are future all-conference stars who are already at least SEC-average.
The biggest reason for pessimism is special teams, never a Nick Saban strong suit. The kicking game has been the weakest part of the Alabama program since Saban walked in the door, and it's not likely to get any better until wholesale changes are made in the way those units are coached and prepared.
Offensive leadership is an issue, but this is a coachable team with a good attitude, work ethic and solid chemistry. There's a lot to like, especially on defense, but this bunch isn't good enough to bring less than its A-game to November, and the offense has an uglier downside than it's shown. Special teams played a pivotal role in the first loss, just as they will in the next one.
Overall, we're with the pollsters on this one. A top-10 team, but not as good as last year's edition, and most importantly, a lower ceiling on further improvement from the midway point of the season. Credit is being given for beating two other top-10 teams on the road, but does anybody really think that when 2015 is in the books we'll all be looking at Georgia and Texas A&M as top-10 teams? How do Ole Miss and Wisconsin look compared with the way they looked on the eve of their games with Alabama? What about upcoming foes Tennessee and Auburn? The schedule isn't shaping up as tough as it appeared in the preseason, and that's true of just about every team in the league. Even the better SEC teams have holes, and there are more disappointments than pleasant surprises; a couple teams are in danger of really tanking hard.
Three numbers making bad teams bad
Troy's plays run per game: 65
Troy is 0-5 versus the FBS and just dropped a home game to an Idaho team whose trip was so delayed that it arrived at its team hotel in Montgomery (an hour from Troy) at about 9 a.m. Saturday ahead of a 2:30 kickoff. First-year coach (and Mike Leach disciple) Neal Brown is building the program around a tempo-based, Air Raid-style offense that aspires to snap the ball as often as possible, but the Trojans have run barely 65 plays per game, one of the lowest marks in the nation.
UCF's yards per rush: 1.98
Central Florida is a disaster in what will surely be George O'Leary's final season. UCF is one of only four winless FBS teams, a list that also includes Kansas, North Texas and New Mexico State. There are struggles in every unit, but the biggest problem is the total inability to get anything going on the ground. The team's yards per rush each season from 2012 onward: 4.83, 4.41, 3.16, 1.98.
Maryland's turnover margin: minus-11
Maryland has been outgained by more than 1,000 yards during a 2-4 start, and coach Randy Edsall has been dismissed. But the biggest problem is an FBS-worst turnover margin of minus-1.83 per game, totaling minus-11 for the season.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 8[/h]
SMU Mustangs (+12) at South Florida Bulls
South Florida is showing some offensive punch to complement workhorseMarlon Mack now that Quinton Flowers' playmaking ability is installed under center, and the Bulls are trying to win three straight for the first time since 2011. The last time South Florida laid double digits was in a 14-13 win at SMU last year. The Bulls are better than last year's edition, but what SMU is putting on the field isn't even on the same planet as last year's Mustangs. This year's group is a losing team with a winning attitude and can trade punches with the new and improved South Florida offense.
Rice Owls (-9.5) versus Army Black Knights
Army has been one of the worst road programs imaginable, going 0-20 in the opponent's house from 2011-14 and, somewhat amazingly, covering just one of those games. Prosperity under ninth-year coach David Bailiff has brought Rice more opportunities to play as the favorite lately, and the Owls have responded, going 14-4 ATS when laying points since the beginning of 2013. Bailiff's teams handle business when they're supposed to win and they don't beat themselves, more than can be said of an error-prone Army program that's split its past six games against FCS opponents.
The Knights squeaked past Bucknell last week and haven't won consecutive games since 2010. Exclude games with Air Force and Navy, and Army hasn't even covered the spread after a win since 2010. Rice is coming off an open date after a comeback win at Florida Atlantic.
Ball State Cardinals (+7.5) versus Central Michigan Chippewas
Regular readers know we love what Pete Lembo is doing at Ball State, but his program just suffered its worst loss since he arrived, dropping a home game to Georgia State. Injuries and lack of size on defense have made stopping opponents a challenge, although this outfit can move the ball. The Cardinals have lost consecutive games to superior teams more than once, but in Lembo's tenure they have yet to string together back-to-back dud efforts. We can count on them to play much better this week, especially offensively.
Will that be enough against a Central Michigan team that's covered eight straight games dating back to the miracle in the Bahamas Bowl? Hard to say, but favoring the underdog's efforts is the fact that the Chippewas' rout of Buffalo last week was a case of the winner playing its best game of the year and the loser playing its worst. Central Michigan drew a moral victory from its near comeback from 18 down against rival Western Michigan, turned that into its best week of preparation yet, and drilled a flat Buffalo squad coming off its first open date under a new staff. This week's Chips won't be as good as they looked last week, and Ball is certainly going to show better.
Virginia Cavaliers (+18) at North Carolina Tar Heels
The program that's a perfect fit for Lembo's talents still has a coach, though if Virginia hadn't come from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to outlast Syracuse in three overtimes, the Cavaliers would be 1-5 and there might have been an immediate opening. But the Cavs pulled it out and now have great energy and momentum heading into the annual matchup with their oldest rival. These teams are familiar with each other, and Virginia has confidence after last year's one-point loss.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]The only team at 100-1, Georgia is 19th in the national championship futures betting order at the Westgate. Here are the 18 teams whose chances the oddsmakers take more seriously than that. It's very nearly the same top 18 as the media poll:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px 0px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| TEAM | CURRENT | LAST WEEK | AUG. 31 | CURRENT AP RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. | 2:1 | 5:2 | 5:2 | 1 |
| Baylor | 4:1 | 5:1 | 8:1 | 2 |
| Alabama | 7:1 | 12:1 | 7:1 | 8 |
| LSU | 8:1 | 8:1 | 20:1 | 6 |
| Michigan St. | 10:1 | 20:1 | 20:1 | 7 |
| Clemson | 10:1 | 12:1 | 20:1 | 6 |
| Stanford | 14:1 | 20:1 | 30:1 | 10 |
| Florida St. | 15:1 | 20:1 | 30:1 | 9 |
| Utah | 16:1 | 15:1 | 300:1 | 3 |
| TCU | 18:1 | 15:1 | 6:1 | 4 |
| Notre Dame | 20:1 | 25:1 | 15:1 | 11 |
| Oklahoma St. | 20:1 | 20:1 | 75:1 | 14 |
| Iowa | 25:1 | 40:1 | 1000:1 | 12 |
| Texas A&M | 40:1 | 12:1 | 100:1 | 15 |
| Oklahoma | 60:1 | 100:1 | 30:1 | 17 |
| Ole Miss | 60:1 | 18:1 | 40:1 | 24 |
| Michigan | 60:1 | 10:1 | 100:1 | 15 |
| Florida | 80:1 | 30:1 | 100:1 | 13 |
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</article>The Week 8 movers include a pair of big MAC favorites. Western Michigan was bet from its opener of -22 versus Miami up to -25, while Bowling Green is now -14.5 at Kent after opening -10.
North Carolina saw big action last week ahead of its beatdown of Wake Forest, and the Heels are again the early choice, moving from -13 to -18 against Virginia.
Bettors drove Nebraska's price across a key number, from -6.5 at open to now -8 versus Northwestern.
Penn State has also crossed seven, in the other direction. The Lions opened -8 at Maryland but now lay just -6.5.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]
- Georgia Southern had two Thursday night chances last year and converted them both in style on five days' rest. Both were at home, however, and this week the Eagles must travel to Appalachian State, a 34-14 loser to GSU in Statesboro on a Thursday night last year when both teams were on a short week.
- It happened only eight times in the first seven weeks, but five ranked teams are underdogs to unranked or lower-ranked teams this week. The disconnect between the pollsters and oddsmakers has been strongest on Michigan, which has been lower-ranked yet favored in three of the eight qualifying games entering this week. The lower-ranked or unranked but favored team is 5-3 straight up and ATS in the eight matchups thus far.
- When Navy announced it would join the AAC, we immediately thought that would bring opportunities to back the Middies against teams that are facing their offense for the first time. This week Navy draws its first unfamiliar foe of the season, Tulane, but the Green Wave have played Georgia Tech in consecutive seasons and are taking the biggest number the Mids have laid an FBS team since 2006. South Florida next week looks like the prime spot to pursue this angle.
