[h=1]How to bet Seattle-San Francisco[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Week 7 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis of the game. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday.
[h=2]Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Spread: Opened Seattle -4; now Seattle -6.5
Total: Opened 41; now 42
Wunderdog says: For a team with a losing record, Seattle's stats are pretty good. The offense is 15th in yards and second in rushing with 137.8 yards per game despite not having Marshawn Lynch at 100 percent. And all that great defensive talent? They are doing a better job than you might think, ranked fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Seahawks have dropped two straight games, blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in an overtime defeat at Cincinnati before allowing two late TDs in last week's 27-23 setback versus Carolina.
The offense has been scoring enough points, but the defense has just had some late inexplicable collapses. The Seahawks are 17-8-1 ATS following a spread loss. San Francisco's pass defense has been especially vulnerable, ranking last in the league with 306.2 yards allowed per game. These two teams are pretty far apart talent-wise. Lay the points on the favorite.
ATS pick: Seattle -6.5
Erin Rynning says: The Seahawks continue to stumble off another loss on Sunday against the Panthers on Sunday 27-23, dropping them to 2-4. Their schedule has proved difficult, with all four losses against worthy teams in the Panthers, Rams, Packers and Bengals. This is still a team loaded with talent and back-class, while still in my top five in ratings. Meanwhile, the 49ers are off a win on Sunday. However, note after their impressive win against the Vikings in Week 1 that they were blown out the following week losing to the Steelers 43-18. Since that solid first week showing, the 49ers have been out-gained in yardage in every contest including last week's win. Any hope for the 49ers hinged on their defense in 2015, and they currently rank 31st in yards allowed per game and 30th allowing 6.2 yards per play. I'll play the Seahawks on Thursday night at minus-6.5 or less.
ATS pick: Seattle -6.5
John Parolin:
5.5 combined sacks by both teams (O/U -110)
5.5 combined sacks is a fairly large number in one game. Considering that the average is 2.2 team sacks per game, this season for a combined 4.4, the minus-110 pick 'em makes this interesting. But the two quarterbacks under center are not sacked at the league-average rate. In fact, they aren't close to that at all.
Russell Wilson has been sacked 26 times this season, most of any quarterback in the league. There's a legitimate argument to be had on whether Seattle will miss the first-round pick or All-Pro center Max Unger more as a result of the Jimmy Graham trade. Colin Kaepernick hasn't exactly been immune to pass rushers either, as he's currently tied for third with 19 sacks this season. Neither quarterback has had his bye week yet, so matching up the sack totals from each of the previous six games can offer an idea of how high or low a 5.5 number is. Wilson and Kaepernick would hit the over in all six games.
The pick: Over 5.5 combined sacks
18.0 completions by Colin Kaepernick (O/U -110)
Colin Kaepernick appears to have rebounded from a terrible start to the season, posting an 85.6 Total QBR in the last two weeks that is the best of any quarterback to start in both weeks. But efficiency measures don't do much in a volume bet, and a game-by-game look shows Kaepernick would hit the under on 18.0 in four of his six games this year (including last week against the Ravens). That's hardly conclusive, so let's examine the six-start sample size Kaepernick has against the Seahawks. Kaepernick would hit the under in five of the six and only was over in his first meeting.
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</article>The 49ers have rushed on 60.4 percent of plays against the Seahawks in the Kaepernick era, so let's combine that with some 2015 performance figures. The Seahawks defense has been on the field for 61.5 plays per game this year. Applying the 49ers play-calling percentages to Seattle's 2015 average gives Kaepernick 37.1 dropbacks to play with. Factoring Kaepernick's high sack and scramble rates this season leaves him with an average of 28.4 attempts. Kaepernick's 2015 completion percentage (62.4) would lean toward the under (barely, at 17.7). But Seattle plays a pretty distinct defensive style, and Kaepernick's never been above 58.3 percent against the Seahawks. Using his 53.3 completion percentage in starts against the Seahawks makes it pretty conclusive. The play: under 18 completions
The pick: under 18 completions
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ESPN INSIDER
Week 7 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis of the game. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday.
Total: Opened 41; now 42
Wunderdog says: For a team with a losing record, Seattle's stats are pretty good. The offense is 15th in yards and second in rushing with 137.8 yards per game despite not having Marshawn Lynch at 100 percent. And all that great defensive talent? They are doing a better job than you might think, ranked fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Seahawks have dropped two straight games, blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in an overtime defeat at Cincinnati before allowing two late TDs in last week's 27-23 setback versus Carolina.
The offense has been scoring enough points, but the defense has just had some late inexplicable collapses. The Seahawks are 17-8-1 ATS following a spread loss. San Francisco's pass defense has been especially vulnerable, ranking last in the league with 306.2 yards allowed per game. These two teams are pretty far apart talent-wise. Lay the points on the favorite.
ATS pick: Seattle -6.5
Erin Rynning says: The Seahawks continue to stumble off another loss on Sunday against the Panthers on Sunday 27-23, dropping them to 2-4. Their schedule has proved difficult, with all four losses against worthy teams in the Panthers, Rams, Packers and Bengals. This is still a team loaded with talent and back-class, while still in my top five in ratings. Meanwhile, the 49ers are off a win on Sunday. However, note after their impressive win against the Vikings in Week 1 that they were blown out the following week losing to the Steelers 43-18. Since that solid first week showing, the 49ers have been out-gained in yardage in every contest including last week's win. Any hope for the 49ers hinged on their defense in 2015, and they currently rank 31st in yards allowed per game and 30th allowing 6.2 yards per play. I'll play the Seahawks on Thursday night at minus-6.5 or less.
ATS pick: Seattle -6.5
John Parolin:
5.5 combined sacks by both teams (O/U -110)
5.5 combined sacks is a fairly large number in one game. Considering that the average is 2.2 team sacks per game, this season for a combined 4.4, the minus-110 pick 'em makes this interesting. But the two quarterbacks under center are not sacked at the league-average rate. In fact, they aren't close to that at all.
Russell Wilson has been sacked 26 times this season, most of any quarterback in the league. There's a legitimate argument to be had on whether Seattle will miss the first-round pick or All-Pro center Max Unger more as a result of the Jimmy Graham trade. Colin Kaepernick hasn't exactly been immune to pass rushers either, as he's currently tied for third with 19 sacks this season. Neither quarterback has had his bye week yet, so matching up the sack totals from each of the previous six games can offer an idea of how high or low a 5.5 number is. Wilson and Kaepernick would hit the over in all six games.
The pick: Over 5.5 combined sacks
18.0 completions by Colin Kaepernick (O/U -110)
Colin Kaepernick appears to have rebounded from a terrible start to the season, posting an 85.6 Total QBR in the last two weeks that is the best of any quarterback to start in both weeks. But efficiency measures don't do much in a volume bet, and a game-by-game look shows Kaepernick would hit the under on 18.0 in four of his six games this year (including last week against the Ravens). That's hardly conclusive, so let's examine the six-start sample size Kaepernick has against the Seahawks. Kaepernick would hit the under in five of the six and only was over in his first meeting.
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</article>The 49ers have rushed on 60.4 percent of plays against the Seahawks in the Kaepernick era, so let's combine that with some 2015 performance figures. The Seahawks defense has been on the field for 61.5 plays per game this year. Applying the 49ers play-calling percentages to Seattle's 2015 average gives Kaepernick 37.1 dropbacks to play with. Factoring Kaepernick's high sack and scramble rates this season leaves him with an average of 28.4 attempts. Kaepernick's 2015 completion percentage (62.4) would lean toward the under (barely, at 17.7). But Seattle plays a pretty distinct defensive style, and Kaepernick's never been above 58.3 percent against the Seahawks. Using his 53.3 completion percentage in starts against the Seahawks makes it pretty conclusive. The play: under 18 completions
The pick: under 18 completions
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