[h=1]My 10 best Week 8 college football ATS bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 58-12 (83 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 39-29-2 (57 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]No. 6 Clemson Tigers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (+7)[/h]Noon ET, ABC
Clemson keeps getting better each week, and quarterback Deshaun Watsonthrew for 420 yards against a Boston College defense that had been allowing just 140.3 total yards per game in a 34-17 win last week. Now the distractions have begun, as they are ranked No. 6 and in everybody's discussion to make the College Football Playoff. Many point to Florida State in two weeks as the key game.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Miami comes in well under the radar at just 4-2, but the Hurricanes are actually very much alive in the ACC Coastal chase. They are at least as good as Clemson on offense with a bevy of talented wideouts, running back Joseph Yearby and quarterback Brad Kaaya (10-1 TD-INT ratio); they also have a talented defense. The Hurricanes gained confidence leading Florida State in the fourth quarter on the road two weeks ago. I will call for Clemson to escape with a tight and closer-than-expected win.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Clemson 28, Miami 27
[h=2]No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-21) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]8:00 p.m. ET ABC
The "buy" sign went on for Ohio State last week. A lot of the national media do not have Ohio State in their top four and say the Buckeyes are playing horribly. Granted, they are not playing up to preseason expectations (they would have to beat every team 100-0 to do so), but they are outgaining their foes by 153 yards per game. Their defense is holding foes to 97 yards below their season average, and the offense is averaging 59 yards per game above what their opponents allow. They are winning by 21 points per game.
With J.T. Barrett taking over the offense, the spread attack will return. The Buckeyes put up 28 points in the second half against a solid Penn State defense last week. Rutgers trailed Indiana 52-27 last week and rallied for the win, and the Scarlet Knights defense is allowing opponents 96 yards per game above what they average. Ohio State led last year's game 56-10, and you have to figure that one the best traveling crowds in college football will have plenty of fans on hand for the Buckeyes' first-ever trip to Rutgers.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 45, Rutgers 17
[h=2]Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (-15)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Alabama benefited from three pick-sixes last week. Tennessee is fresh off a bye. And the Crimson Tide are overpriced at home, as they are just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite. However, I still like the Tide in this one.
Tennessee allows 5.0 yards per carry in SEC play, so I look for Derrick Henry & Co. to have a solid day running the ball. Last year, Alabama jumped out to a 27-0 lead and looked unprepared when Joshua Dobbs came off the bench and ran for 75 yards on them. With a bye on deck, the Tide also is not in a letdown spot, like they were against Arkansas. Alabama could be the best team in the country.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 35, Tennessee 17
[h=2]No. 9 Florida State Seminoles (-6) atGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets[/h]7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Florida State is one of the quietest good teams in the country, but let's keep that a secret. Last year when these two met in the ACC title game, the Seminoles did not know they were facing an option team all year and had to prep for it in one week. Still, they led 37-28 before a late touchdown by Georgia Tech. Florida State is a little better than last year's team, while Georgia Tech is nowhere near the squad that was playing the best ball of any team in the country the last seven games.
Florida State was able to prep for the option this spring and in August. Dalvin Cook has rushed for 855 yards and 8.7 yards per carry and now takes on a Georgia Tech defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per carry in ACC play. Georgia Tech has lost five in a row, and against the two top-10 teams they have faced this year, they trailed Clemson 40-10 and Notre Dame 30-7.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 34, Georgia Tech 23
[h=2]No. 25 Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange (+7)[/h]Noon ET, ESPN2
Pitt has joined the rankings, and the Panthers have a lot of people patting them on the back. They deserve to be here as their only loss is to unbeaten Iowa, and that was by three points on the road. This is actually their fifth road game in seven weeks, and they have a Thursday night showdown with North Carolina on deck for the top spot in the Coastal Division, followed by Notre Dame. They just faced Georgia Tech's option offense. Pitt is averaging just 314 yards per game and 24 points per game on the road.
Syracuse is in a must-win situation here to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Orange have three losses and have Florida State, Clemson and Louisville in their next three games. Syracuse is 3-1 at home this year, and its only loss was to LSU, a game in which the Orange had a 21-17 edge in first downs. They are holding foes to just 18.8 points per game in regulation at home. I will call for the outright upset here.
ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Syracuse 21, Pitt 20
[h=2]Iowa State Cyclones at No. 2 Baylor Bears(-37)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last week, I thought I was a genius and picked Iowa State +21 against TCU. Iowa State was at home and had a lot of things going for them. They trailed just 31-21 in the fourth quarter but lost by 24. TCU is not as good on the road as it is at home, and neither is Baylor. The difference here is Baylor is at home, where it has outgained foes by 375 yards per game over the last three years.
Iowa State already lost to Texas Tech on the road by 35 and allowed 776 yards in that game; Baylor beat that same Texas Tech team 63-35, giving up a late score. This is Baylor's homecoming, and they have a bye on deck. I see a rout in this one.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 60, Iowa State 17
[h=2]Indiana Hoosiers (+17) at No. 7 Michigan State Spartans[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
I called for Michigan State to upset Michigan last week as a 7.5-point underdog, and while they needed a miracle play at the end to do so, they did have edges in first downs (20-10) and yards (386-230). They were highly motivated as the underdog but have struggled in the favorite role all year, and there has to be an emotional letdown.
Indiana is off an excruciating loss to Rutgers, where the Hoosiers blew a 52-27 lead and lost. They may get Jordan Howard back, and that would really make them dangerous. Quarterback Nate Sudfeld has 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Indiana stood toe-to-toe with Ohio State despite those two players both being injured and will keep this one closer than expected.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan State 34, Indiana 27
[h=2]No. 23 Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Virginia Tech is just 3-4 but is a small favorite over a ranked team here. Last year on The Edge on ESPNU (every Friday at 1:00 ET), I used Virginia Tech as my upset pick of the week, and it beat Duke on the road, 17-16. This time the Hokies are at home and still very much alive in the ACC Coastal chase, as they have just two conference losses. Virginia Tech is 13-1 in the series and has faced my No. 33-toughest schedule, while Duke has taken on my No. 109 slate.
Despite the weaker record, my computer has Virginia Tech with a 294-230 edge in yards. The Hokies also get back quarterback Michael Brewer, who almost led a comeback versus Miami last week. Keep in mind that with a healthy Brewer, they led Ohio State 17-14 at the half here in Blacksburg. Technically, this is not an upset, but I am calling for an unranked 3-3 team to knock off a ranked foe.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 23, Duke 16
[h=2]No 15. Texas A&M Aggies at No. 24 Ole Miss Rebels (-5.5)[/h]7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Both teams come into this contest off a loss, and while Texas A&M does have an improved defense this season, it is allowing 5.7 rushing yards per carry and 70 percent completions in three SEC games. Ole Miss has a defense that is allowing just 292 yards per game at home. The Rebels also get back OL Laremy Tunsil, who missed the first half of the year.
Kyle Allen came into the season with all the hype and has thrown for 1,537 yards (61 percent completions), with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Chad Kellyhas stronger numbers at 2,234 yards (66 percent), with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Ole Miss is outgaining foes by 162 yards per game and Texas A&M by just 75 yards per game. Texas A&M is coming off a big effort at home versus Alabama and travels to a tough place. I will call for the lower-ranked team to win outright.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 38, Texas A&M 30
[h=2]No. 3 Utah Utes at USC Trojans (-3.5)[/h]7:30 p.m. ET, FOX
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</article>Why is a USC team with three losses favored over the No. 3 team in the country? USC has only been outgained in one game and is plus-108 yards per game this year. Utah is undefeated, but it actually has been outgained in three games this year and is just plus-27 yards per game.
Now that Utah is ranked so highly, the pressure will mount each week. The Utes are coming off two big home games that were both close in the fourth quarter. USC has an interim head coach and nothing to lose, as the Trojans already have three defeats. With both of their Pac-12 losses outside of the division, USC would win the Pac-12 South title if it wins out and Utah loses a game.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 31, Utah 23
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 58-12 (83 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 39-29-2 (57 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]No. 6 Clemson Tigers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (+7)[/h]Noon ET, ABC
Clemson keeps getting better each week, and quarterback Deshaun Watsonthrew for 420 yards against a Boston College defense that had been allowing just 140.3 total yards per game in a 34-17 win last week. Now the distractions have begun, as they are ranked No. 6 and in everybody's discussion to make the College Football Playoff. Many point to Florida State in two weeks as the key game.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Miami comes in well under the radar at just 4-2, but the Hurricanes are actually very much alive in the ACC Coastal chase. They are at least as good as Clemson on offense with a bevy of talented wideouts, running back Joseph Yearby and quarterback Brad Kaaya (10-1 TD-INT ratio); they also have a talented defense. The Hurricanes gained confidence leading Florida State in the fourth quarter on the road two weeks ago. I will call for Clemson to escape with a tight and closer-than-expected win.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Clemson 28, Miami 27
[h=2]No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-21) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]8:00 p.m. ET ABC
The "buy" sign went on for Ohio State last week. A lot of the national media do not have Ohio State in their top four and say the Buckeyes are playing horribly. Granted, they are not playing up to preseason expectations (they would have to beat every team 100-0 to do so), but they are outgaining their foes by 153 yards per game. Their defense is holding foes to 97 yards below their season average, and the offense is averaging 59 yards per game above what their opponents allow. They are winning by 21 points per game.
With J.T. Barrett taking over the offense, the spread attack will return. The Buckeyes put up 28 points in the second half against a solid Penn State defense last week. Rutgers trailed Indiana 52-27 last week and rallied for the win, and the Scarlet Knights defense is allowing opponents 96 yards per game above what they average. Ohio State led last year's game 56-10, and you have to figure that one the best traveling crowds in college football will have plenty of fans on hand for the Buckeyes' first-ever trip to Rutgers.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 45, Rutgers 17
[h=2]Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (-15)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Alabama benefited from three pick-sixes last week. Tennessee is fresh off a bye. And the Crimson Tide are overpriced at home, as they are just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite. However, I still like the Tide in this one.
Tennessee allows 5.0 yards per carry in SEC play, so I look for Derrick Henry & Co. to have a solid day running the ball. Last year, Alabama jumped out to a 27-0 lead and looked unprepared when Joshua Dobbs came off the bench and ran for 75 yards on them. With a bye on deck, the Tide also is not in a letdown spot, like they were against Arkansas. Alabama could be the best team in the country.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 35, Tennessee 17
[h=2]No. 9 Florida State Seminoles (-6) atGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets[/h]7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Florida State is one of the quietest good teams in the country, but let's keep that a secret. Last year when these two met in the ACC title game, the Seminoles did not know they were facing an option team all year and had to prep for it in one week. Still, they led 37-28 before a late touchdown by Georgia Tech. Florida State is a little better than last year's team, while Georgia Tech is nowhere near the squad that was playing the best ball of any team in the country the last seven games.
Florida State was able to prep for the option this spring and in August. Dalvin Cook has rushed for 855 yards and 8.7 yards per carry and now takes on a Georgia Tech defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per carry in ACC play. Georgia Tech has lost five in a row, and against the two top-10 teams they have faced this year, they trailed Clemson 40-10 and Notre Dame 30-7.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 34, Georgia Tech 23
[h=2]No. 25 Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange (+7)[/h]Noon ET, ESPN2
Pitt has joined the rankings, and the Panthers have a lot of people patting them on the back. They deserve to be here as their only loss is to unbeaten Iowa, and that was by three points on the road. This is actually their fifth road game in seven weeks, and they have a Thursday night showdown with North Carolina on deck for the top spot in the Coastal Division, followed by Notre Dame. They just faced Georgia Tech's option offense. Pitt is averaging just 314 yards per game and 24 points per game on the road.
Syracuse is in a must-win situation here to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Orange have three losses and have Florida State, Clemson and Louisville in their next three games. Syracuse is 3-1 at home this year, and its only loss was to LSU, a game in which the Orange had a 21-17 edge in first downs. They are holding foes to just 18.8 points per game in regulation at home. I will call for the outright upset here.
ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Syracuse 21, Pitt 20
[h=2]Iowa State Cyclones at No. 2 Baylor Bears(-37)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last week, I thought I was a genius and picked Iowa State +21 against TCU. Iowa State was at home and had a lot of things going for them. They trailed just 31-21 in the fourth quarter but lost by 24. TCU is not as good on the road as it is at home, and neither is Baylor. The difference here is Baylor is at home, where it has outgained foes by 375 yards per game over the last three years.
Iowa State already lost to Texas Tech on the road by 35 and allowed 776 yards in that game; Baylor beat that same Texas Tech team 63-35, giving up a late score. This is Baylor's homecoming, and they have a bye on deck. I see a rout in this one.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 60, Iowa State 17
[h=2]Indiana Hoosiers (+17) at No. 7 Michigan State Spartans[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
I called for Michigan State to upset Michigan last week as a 7.5-point underdog, and while they needed a miracle play at the end to do so, they did have edges in first downs (20-10) and yards (386-230). They were highly motivated as the underdog but have struggled in the favorite role all year, and there has to be an emotional letdown.
Indiana is off an excruciating loss to Rutgers, where the Hoosiers blew a 52-27 lead and lost. They may get Jordan Howard back, and that would really make them dangerous. Quarterback Nate Sudfeld has 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Indiana stood toe-to-toe with Ohio State despite those two players both being injured and will keep this one closer than expected.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan State 34, Indiana 27
[h=2]No. 23 Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Virginia Tech is just 3-4 but is a small favorite over a ranked team here. Last year on The Edge on ESPNU (every Friday at 1:00 ET), I used Virginia Tech as my upset pick of the week, and it beat Duke on the road, 17-16. This time the Hokies are at home and still very much alive in the ACC Coastal chase, as they have just two conference losses. Virginia Tech is 13-1 in the series and has faced my No. 33-toughest schedule, while Duke has taken on my No. 109 slate.
Despite the weaker record, my computer has Virginia Tech with a 294-230 edge in yards. The Hokies also get back quarterback Michael Brewer, who almost led a comeback versus Miami last week. Keep in mind that with a healthy Brewer, they led Ohio State 17-14 at the half here in Blacksburg. Technically, this is not an upset, but I am calling for an unranked 3-3 team to knock off a ranked foe.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 23, Duke 16
[h=2]No 15. Texas A&M Aggies at No. 24 Ole Miss Rebels (-5.5)[/h]7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Both teams come into this contest off a loss, and while Texas A&M does have an improved defense this season, it is allowing 5.7 rushing yards per carry and 70 percent completions in three SEC games. Ole Miss has a defense that is allowing just 292 yards per game at home. The Rebels also get back OL Laremy Tunsil, who missed the first half of the year.
Kyle Allen came into the season with all the hype and has thrown for 1,537 yards (61 percent completions), with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Chad Kellyhas stronger numbers at 2,234 yards (66 percent), with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Ole Miss is outgaining foes by 162 yards per game and Texas A&M by just 75 yards per game. Texas A&M is coming off a big effort at home versus Alabama and travels to a tough place. I will call for the lower-ranked team to win outright.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 38, Texas A&M 30
[h=2]No. 3 Utah Utes at USC Trojans (-3.5)[/h]7:30 p.m. ET, FOX
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</article>Why is a USC team with three losses favored over the No. 3 team in the country? USC has only been outgained in one game and is plus-108 yards per game this year. Utah is undefeated, but it actually has been outgained in three games this year and is just plus-27 yards per game.
Now that Utah is ranked so highly, the pressure will mount each week. The Utes are coming off two big home games that were both close in the fourth quarter. USC has an interim head coach and nothing to lose, as the Trojans already have three defeats. With both of their Pac-12 losses outside of the division, USC would win the Pac-12 South title if it wins out and Utah loses a game.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 31, Utah 23
