I have a Big hedging question, what would u do?

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

At the start of each sports season, I pick just one team and ride them. Back last march, I selected the KC Royals and made these wagers.

KC Over 80.5 wins (-110) won 1K
KC to win AL Central (+500) won 1K
So that turned out great and I have collected the money.

I still have these 2 bets pending.

KC to win AL (+1100) 200 to win 2200
KC to win WS (+2500) 200 to win 5000

I have not hedged anything, not even once, yet... How would u play what I hold. Take into consideration, I have already collected 2K and I look at all this as just one bet. Worse case is, I'm making 1600 on KC this season. Im running scenarios today and would like opinions.

Thanks in advance.

indiana · Oct 23, 2015

M/mirror...........nicely done, great calls...........seems like, with a ret'n that you would receive on the hedge, it would be a winning prop....
what ever you decide, BOL............indy

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

Yeah I know, thanks for the comments. I'm still thinking about it. I just played yesterday, this future.
Bulls Over 50 wins (-110) 1100 to win 1000
Bulls to win NBA championship (+1700) 200 to win 3400
U like that future, Indy.

NFLParlazy · Oct 23, 2015

Man in the Mirror said:
Yeah I know, thanks for the comments. I'm still thinking about it. I just played yesterday, this future.
Bulls Over 50 wins (-110) 1100 to win 1000
Bulls to win NBA championship (+1700) 200 to win 3400
U like that future, Indy.

As long as the Bulls have D Rose, they won't win anything. He has issues with injuries and allegations of sexual assault.

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

They will win 51 games this year, I'm not worried about Rose, this is Jimmy Butlers team anyway.

strata10 · Oct 23, 2015

I think you should definitely put a decent sized bet on Toronto if it goes to a game 7. Enough to cover the 400 you would lose if they don't win the pennant would be a safe amount. Just my thoughts, good luck no matter what you decide to do!

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

Strata, I'm pretty sure that's what I will do. If it goes to game 7, I'll put 400 on Toronto and hope I lose it. Part of me wants to put about 600 or so on Toronto tonight, hope I win it, then have KC win game 7. I have a buddy with the same bet, he hedged a little on game 5 with Houston and a little more on a series bet on Toronto, I have just sat on this since March.

captn_jay · Oct 23, 2015

Man in the Mirror said:
At the start of each sports season, I pick just one team and ride them. Back last march, I selected the KC Royals and made these wagers.

KC Over 80.5 wins (-110) won 1K
KC to win AL Central (+500) won 1K
So that turned out great and I have collected the money.

I still have these 2 bets pending.

KC to win AL (+1100) 200 to win 2200
KC to win WS (+2500) 200 to win 5000

I have not hedged anything, not even once, yet... How would u play what I hold. Take into consideration, I have already collected 2K and I look at all this as just one bet. Worse case is, I'm making 1600 on KC this season. Im running scenarios today and would like opinions.

Thanks in advance.

Kc to win the series against Toronto is Paying +200 at my book.

So, Two examples of what you could do:
1) if you put 1100 on Toronto, and Toronto Wins you'd win 2200-200 (Lose on KC series play) = 2000
2) if you put 800 on Toronto, and Toronto Wins you'd win 1600-200 (Lose on KC series play) = 1400

If KC Wins then your up 2200 and lose x dollars on Toronto: (x being what you placed on Toronto above)
1)...2200-1100= + 1100
2)....2200-800= + 1400

In short, if you want 1400 guaranteed, then take Toronto at +200 for 800. If Kc or Toronto win you win 1400

Use the same logic to figure out the other series play (Kc to win WS 200 paying 5000)
Mets I see -110 and +105
KC i see +165 and +175
Blue Jays +375 and +400
Find out what your book(s) are offering and go from there.

captn_jay · Oct 23, 2015

Just Figured out the best way to middle the Second series play,
I Don't have a computer program to run to figure out to the exact cent to maximize your return should any one of the three win. So, here are three examples giving you roughly the same return +/- from each other.
Example 1)
You pretty much have to bet all three teams at Mets +105( Bet 3000), KC +165 (bet 300), Blue Jays (Bet 1200)

Mets at +105, BET 3000. 3000 would get you 3150- 200(original 200 bet on Kc)- 1200 -300 = 1750 = 1450
So then, you would BET 1200 on the Jays at +400 to win 4800. Jays win then you make 4800-200(orig bet on KC) -3000 - 300 = 1300
Bet 300 on Kc to win 525. And, if kc wins then you lose 5000-3000-1200=800 +525 = 1325

Example 2)
Mets +105( Bet 2900), KC +165 (bet 300), Blue Jays (Bet 1200)

Mets at +105, for 2900 would get you 3045- 200(original 200 bet on Kc)- 1200 = 1645 - 300 = 1345
So, you would play 1200 on the Jays at +400 to win 4800. Jays win then you make 4800-200-2800=1700 - 300 = 1400
if kc wins then you lose 5000-2900-1200=900 + 525 = 1425

This last example is I think Ideal:
Mets +105( Bet 2950), KC +165 (bet 300), Blue Jays (Bet 1200)

Mets at +105, for 2950 would get you 3097.5 - 200(original 200 bet on Kc)- 1200 = 1697.5 - 300 = 1397.5
So, you would play 1200 on the Jays at +400 to win 4800. Jays win then you make 4800-200-2950=1700 - 300 = 1350
if kc wins then you lose 5000-2900-1200=900 + 525 = 1375

There may be another way to do it, I started thinking Mets would be the largest wager and thought how to maximize your return with them.
In the last scenario you are getting between a guaranteed return of 1350 and should the mets win get anther 47.5 and 25 if KC does win.

captn_jay · Oct 23, 2015

Man in the Mirror said:
Strata, I'm pretty sure that's what I will do. If it goes to game 7, I'll put 400 on Toronto and hope I lose it. Part of me wants to put about 600 or so on Toronto tonight, hope I win it, then have KC win game 7. I have a buddy with the same bet, he hedged a little on game 5 with Houston and a little more on a series bet on Toronto, I have just sat on this since March.

You can walk away with guaranteed money here..why risk 600 or so on the game tonight?
Yes, Toronto may win but may lose tomorrow. If they win tonight and lose tomorrow you make the Series play of 2200 + 450 (585 paying 450 at -130) = 2650.
But you say you will put 400 on tomorrows game as well.. So 450 for tonights game( 585 paying 450 at -130) + 300 from tomorrow's game (lets say same odds 390 paying 300 at -130) for a total of 750-200(original KC bet) = 550... You could make 1400 Guaranteed so why bother with this?

If Toronto lose tonight then you lose 585 and only make 1615. Why make the bet at all. Just take the risk. It makes no sense to put money on Toronto tonight
Dime has posted Toronto to win the series at +240 so that would increase your guaranteed profit if you could find this better line.

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

Thanks Captn Jay, definitely something to ponder. I'm still just sitting here, doing nothing. More than likely, I will do nothing tonight, just hope that KC wins and we move to the WS. If they lose tonight, I will hedge game 7, at least for a small amount. I guess I just look at it, as the worst I can do is (+$1600) on the Royals. That makes me stay with this longer and not hedge yet. This is just padding for the BR but it would be nice to make almost 10k on the Royals this season.

Here are the other futures that I currently hold.

Colts Over 10.5 wins (-150) $1500 to win $1000
Colts to win SB (+900) $200 to win $1800
Boy these 2 look bad

OKST Over 7.5 wins (-140) $1400 to win $1000
Surely I'll win this one

Tampa Bay Over 104.5pts (-110) $1100 to win $1000
Tampa Bay to win Cup (+900) $200 to win $1800

Chicago Over 50 wins (-110) $1100 to win $1000
Chicago to win it all (+1700) $200 to win $3400

I think those are right, it was off the top of my head.

captn_jay · Oct 23, 2015

No offence, but it is apparent that math is not your strong suit.

Put 700 on Toronto at +240(if you have available), and Toronto Wins the series you'd win 1680-200 (Lose on KC series play) = 1580

If KC Wins then your up 2200 and lose the 700 dollars on Toronto: 2200-700= + 1500 (the worst you can do and you don't have to sweat at all). Who cares who wins

THIS IS A GUARANTEE.. Can't beat that.

If you put a small amount on Toronto tomorrow and Toronto wins then you make a couple hundred? If they lose than you make 1600..

But what I can't understand Man in the Mirror. You Say You are going to place a wager tomorrow on the game. JUST DO IT today. Do it today and you win regardless. Tomorrow you may or may NOT get that 1600.

Just do it today and the worst you can do is 1500. If you want a guarantee profit which is the name of the game then put money on Toronto to win the series tonight. If you choose not to, then just let it ride.
Just my opinion.
Best of luck with your action regardless of what you do.

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

One problem with that, I like what I have, I don't want to hedge a winning wager. Actually math is my strong suit, I'm aware of all the numbers. I guess I wondered what u guys would do. I know how to hedge, just didn't know if I wanted too, tonight. So your opinion is (yes) hedge with Jays. I'm still mulling it over.

captn_jay · Oct 23, 2015

True, you were asking what others would do.
I see what you mean now, if KC does lose then you still have made 1600 on kc overall.

You did say however, "If they lose tonight, I will hedge game 7, at least for a small amount" I'd say not to bother than as it seems like you weren't to begin with and never done so.
Again, did not mean to offend you. I was thinking differently about this ? when i made that comment.

Man in the Mirror · Oct 23, 2015

No, its OK, I appreciate your comments. I guess if it goes to game 7, I'll hedge the $400. I can only hope it ends tonight.

Man in the Mirror · Oct 24, 2015

I'm getting to old for this. Bring on Mets.

captn_jay · Oct 24, 2015

Good decision on not hedging. I wish you luck on the WS series wager.

Man in the Mirror · Oct 24, 2015

Im going to hedge some. Won over 4k already, have 200 to win 5000 left. Ill probably just bet 1k on mets and pull like crazy for KC..

I have a Big hedging question, what would u do?

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