Eastern Conference Best Bets
October 27, 2015
Western Conference
ATLANTIC DIVISION
They’re not ready to hang any new banners in TD Garden quite yet. But after a brief lull, the trendline seems up once again for the Boston Celtics (42½), who made a surprise playoff appearance last season in their second year under young HC Brad Stevens, who seems to have adapted nicely to life in the NBA. Offseason addition F David Lee is the prototype Stevens player, versatile in his offensive skills and comfortable with the Golden State-type of floor-spacing that Stevens covets, while ex-Raptor Amir Johnson adds frontcourt muscle. And there are even more backcourt options these days for Stevens with rookies Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter now into the perimeter mix. A move comfortably above .500 appears the next stage of the latest Celtic ascent. Look “over” in Beantown.
There was no panic north of the border when the Toronto Raptors (45½) were swept out of the playoffs last spring by the Wizards. Instead of worrying about his job, HC Dwane Casey was given assurances by GM Masai Ujiri, who proceeded to add the versatile DeMarre Carroll in free agency from the Hawks. Casey thus receives the defensive upgrades he could never realize with his collection of smaller perimeter components. And in Carroll, Toronto now at least has someone to pester LeBron James should the Raptors draw the Cavs in the playoffs. Meanwhile, other additions Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo have minimized Amir Johnson’s defection to Boston. All of which provides what seems an upgraded supporting cast around sparkplug Gs DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. It should be an “over” at Air Canada Centre.
We’re not going too far out on a limb projecting the New York Knicks (30½) to exceed last year’s 17 wins. But asking the Knicks to nearly double their win haul from a year ago seems a bit much. While Phil Jackson has shuffled the personnel deck somewhat, and HC Derek Fisher appears to have moved from the triangle-centric offense to more of a Golden State-like, transition-based style, there are few indicators that the pieces fit. At this stage of his career, Carmelo Anthony doesn’t appear likely to “take one for the team” if he can’t get his normal allotment of shots, and it is not lost upon shrewd observers that ’Melo was hardly eager to hurry back into action whenever injuries arose last season. Jackson’s new imports include Arron Afflalo (hurting at the outset with hamstring issues), Robin Lopez, and an intriguing 7-3 first-round pick, Latvian Kristaps Porzingis, plus Notre Dame rookie PG Jerian Grant, so the pieces are in place for a mild upgrade. Then again, it would be hard for the Knicks to actually regress this term, where another round of sparring between owner Jim Dolan and the Big Apple press, plus the likes of Spike Lee and Stephen A. Smith making their opinions known, figure to be more entertaining than the on-court product. Expect another “under” at MSG.
Struggling to break the 20-win barrier since GM Sam Hinkie arrived and began to deconstruct the roster with his dubious “analytics”-dominated approach, the Philadelphia 76ers (21½) have been a mess the past couple of years, evoking comparisons to their epic 9-win, 1972-1973 Sixer predecessors. Breakthroughs are thus measured in modest terms these days in Philly, but we’re still not convinced better days are coming soon. Promising Duke rookie Jahlil Okafor is the latest to test the Sixer whirlpool, but Hinkie has had little luck with previous first-round picks, as Joel Embiid remains on the shelf and Nerlens Noel has been slow to progress. Coach Brett Brown has some new elements to fit into the Sixer puzzle, and the likes of vets Carl Landry and Nik Stauskas, plus rookies Okafor and J.P. Tokoto, provide potentially useful rotation pieces. But Hinkie has been moving players in and out so quickly the past couple of years that it has been hard for Brown to develop any chemistry with his roster, and the collection of draft picks Hinkie has acquired for the future are not going to do the current Sixer version much good. Philly fans deserve better, but we’re looking “under” again at Wells Fargo Center.
The expectations are now way down for the Brooklyn Nets (28½), so much so that sightings of Jay-Z and Beyonce’ at Barclays Center are likely to become further and further between. But are the Nets really going to fall off of the map? Sure, the key components are either aging or injury-prone; Joe Johnson can still fill it up from the wing, but at 34 we’re not sure how much tread is left on his tires, and C Brook Lopez has dealt with injury issues on an annual basis. Frontliner Andrea Bargnani, also with a checkered health history, arrives from the Knicks to provide HC Lionel Hollins with another scoring option. Still, roster depth appears an issue and could become an albatross if injuries hit once more, but don’t forget that the Nets still managed to sneak into the playoffs last term with similar roster dysfunctions, as Hollins had enough veteran presence at his disposal (such as Johnson and vet PG Jarrett Jack) to keep the Brooklyn ship from capsizing. Making the playoffs, even in the East, appears a tall order, but Hollins should be able to squeeze at least 30 wins out of this bunch. It’s an “over” for us in Brooklyn.
CENTRAL DIVISION
We would not be surprised to see the Cleveland Cavaliers (56½) again playing for the title next June in what would be LeBron James’ sixth straight trip to the Finals. Especially after the Cav supporting cast was upgraded throughout last season thanks to additions of Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert, and J.R. Smith, while first-year HC Dave Blatt learned to co-exist, at least we think, with King James. But as LeBron moves into the second half of his career, his focus is likely to mirror a Spurs-like approach, and the recurring back woes that forced LeBron to shut down in preseason suggest he will take breaks as needed (as he did last January) to make sure he is healthy in April. Already, key G Kyrie Irving is not healthy, as his recovery from knee surgery could keep him out until Christmas, and Shumpert opens the season on the shelf with a wrist injury. And we’re still not sure Kevin Love has found a proper fit in the Blatt (LeBron?) system. Hitting 57 regular-season wins looks like a tall order, so we’re looking “under” at The Q.
The good news for the Indiana Pacers (41½) is that Paul George is going to be available at the outset after missing almost the entirety of last season with a broken leg. The bad news is that there was a near complete clear-out (via trade and FA) of the frontline that is now minus longtime cogs David West and Roy Hibbert, plus last year’s useful addition Luis Scola. Frank Vogel thus will transform the Pacers into the poster team for “small ball” as he adds Monta Ellis to the mix to fire away with George, but also wonders if the likes of journeymen Ian Mahinmi (whose 30% FT shooting makes Dwight Howard look like Rick Barry by comparison), Lavoy Allen, and Texas rookie Myles Turner can handle duty in the post. We’re not sure. Though being guard-heavy is not necessarily a death knell in the East, we’re not convinced the Indiana version gets above .500, either. It’s an “under” for us at the Fieldhouse.
Last year was adjustment time for the Detroit Pistons (34½), with new HC Stan Van Gundy needing a full campaign to re-format the roster with players who not only fit into his system, but also wanted to play at The Palace. The latter was not necessarily the case with key frontliner Greg Monroe, who made little secret about his desire to test the FA waters after last season and made the subsequent jump to division rival Milwaukee. In the meantime, among the many personnel moves by Van Gundy were adding ex-Thunder PG Reggie Jackson, no longer overshadowed as he was in Ok City by Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant and who was rewarded with an upgraded contract and the keys to run the Piston offense. Jackson’s ability to run the pick-and-roll effectively with C Andre Drummond was a significant development after the All-Star break, and Van Gundy believes he added some needed three-point shooters to spread the floor in ex-Buck Ersan Ilyasova, ex-Sun Marcus Morris, and ex-lots-of-teams Steve Blake, all of whom are likely to upgrade the Pistons’ modest 34% shooting beyond the arc a year ago. If all works as planned, Van Gundy at the least should have a borderline playoff contender, so we’re looking “over” at Auburn Hills.
After a bumpy debut as an NBA HC at Brooklyn, Jason Kidd proved that he knew what he was doing last year with the Milwaukee Bucks (44½), who forged a dramatic and unexpected turnaround from the 15-67 debacle Kidd inherited. The fact Milwaukee was able to improve so dramatically and emerge as a playoff team even after the December injury to touted Duke rookie Jabari Parker was an added feather in Kidd’s cap. But the element of surprise that helped last year’s Bucks is no longer present, and the jury remains out on last February’s deadline deals that sent effective PG Brandon Knight to the Suns and added Michael Carter-Williams from the Sixers to run the point. (The Bucks, 30-23 before the Knight trade, sagged to 11-18 after he was sent to Phoenix.) The well-traveled Greivis Vasquez is Kidd’s security blanket at PG should Carter-Williams falter, but we still wonder about the wisdom of the Knight trade. Adding ex-Pistons FA frontliner Greg Monroe, plus the rapid progress of swingmen Khris Middleton and the “Greek Freak” Giannis Antetokounmpo, suggest Kidd could get Milwaukee back to the playoffs. But the questions at PG, the fact that no one really knows when still-on-the-mend Parker will be full speed, not to mention the downgrade of the Bucks’ new uniforms (what was wrong with the forest green-red/orange look?), have us off of the scent. Look “under” in Brewtown.
It has started to dawn upon fans of the Chicago Bulls (49½) that their team might never be fully healthy with a collection of injury-prone key cogs such as Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. The starters missed an average of more than 17 games last season, so we wonder if new HC Fred Hoiberg is going to have the same issues with available bodies as did predecessor Tom Thibodeau in recent years. Still, we do not want to dismiss the Bulls, as Jimmy Butler progressed from defensive specialist to All-Star while Rose has struggled to stay healthy, and there is hope that potential young stars such as Doug McDermott, Tony Snell, and Nikola Mirotic can make more consistent contributions this season, while Arkansas rookie Bobby Portis has the potential to fill a variety of roles for Hoiberg. Still, there is an element of the unknown about the Bulls, with so much depending upon the health of Rose, Noah, and the aging Pau Gasol. If all hands stay on deck, and Hoiberg makes a smooth adjustment to the NBA (where he played and coached), the Bulls could threaten Cleveland in the Central, but those are big ifs; we’d rather stay neutral and simply take a pass at United Center.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
The Atlanta Hawks (49½) were a season-long surprise a year ago, with the “Bud Ball” of new HC (and ex-Gregg Popovich aide) Mike Budenholzer looking a lot like the Spurs, only with more colorful uniforms. The sum should again be greater than the parts in Atlanta even though the Hawks went only 1-for-2 in free agency, losing DeMarre Carroll to Toronto while managing to re-sign invaluable PF Paul Millsap. A useful FA addition is ex-Spur Tiago Splitter, who provides a bit more rough-and-tumble around the bucket and more screens for PG Jeff Teague and spot-shooter deluxe Kyle Korver. When Budenholzer likely misses Carroll will be in the playoffs, especially if Atlanta again has to run into LeBron and the Cavs. In the regular season, however, we can’t see the Hawks dipping more than 10 wins from a season ago. “Over” at Philips Arena.
It’s time to start counting Randy Wittman among Bob Knight’s more-successful disciples, as hoop insiders beyond “The General” all recognize the superb job Wittman has done in molding the Washington Wizards (45½) into a contender in the East. But can Washington take the next step after winning a playoff series in each of the past two seasons? On the surface, the departure of vet Paul Pierce to the Clippers seems a potential negative, as Pierce provided a valuable third scoring option beyond Gs John Wall and Bradley Beal. But Pierce’s contributions were limited to the offensive end, and his defensive liabilities are not going to be missed. Emerging ex-Georgetown star Otto Porter gives Wittman more flexibility than did Pierce, and offseason additions Jared Dudley and Alan Anderson, plus Kansas rookie Kelly Oubre, provide plenty of new rotational options. Wittman and GM Ernie Grunfeld are crossing their fingers that frontliners Nene and Marcin Gortat, who do most of the dirty work on the blocks, can stay healthy, but the supporting cast around Wall and Beal looks capable enough for the Wiz to not regress from last season’s 46 wins. Look “over” at the Verizon Center, where a quick stop at the venerable Ben’s Chili Bowl, nearby on U Street, for a chili half-smoke remains a must before any Wizards game.
Just when it appeared the Charlotte Hornets (34½) might be making progress, as they did when making the playoffs two seasons ago, they regressed to 33-49 last term. Charlotte similarly took two steps backward before taking another forward a few years earlier. Now the Hornets have once again shuffled the deck with as many as eight new faces on HC Steve Clifford’s roster. Of this new bunch, ex-Blazer swingman Nicolas Batum is the featured addition, but even he is in a contract year and has made it known he would like to move to Toronto for 2016-17. Jeremy Lin also arrives to provide some relief for Kemba Walker at the point, but Charlotte still lacks an identity beyond Clifford’s defensive schemes, as observers are unsure whether the Hornets decide to go more “small ball” with an uptempo emphasis, fueled by Walker, or grind out possessions in halfcourt sets, running the offense thru injury-prone C Al Jefferson. Clifford also could greatly miss the versatile Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, likely out for the season after shoulder surgery. With apologies to majority owner Michael Jordan, it’s hard to forecast any upgrades in Charlotte, so it’s an “under” for us at the Cable Box.
Perhaps no team enters 2015-16 with as many health questions as the Miami Heat (45½), which looked like a playoff team when all hands were on deck last season, but faded out of contention when Chris Bosh had to be shut down for a life-threatening heart condition, and injuries once again caught up with Dwyane Wade. Bosh has returned, but counting upon a full season from Wade appears a risky proposition at this stage. The supporting cast has promise, especially after Hassan Whiteside emerged as a serviceable NBA center last season, and PG Goran Dragic arrived from the Suns at the trade deadline, right before Bosh went out, while Luol Deng remains a useful component at the “3" position. Gerald Green also provides some cover if Wade goes down again, while Duke rookie Justise Winslow is also likely to fit somewhere into the rotation. But there are risks associated with entrusting so much with Bosh and especially Wade at this stage of their careers. There is also the subject of HC Erik Spoelstra, who was absolved of blame in last year’s post-LeBron season largely because of the plights of Bosh and Wade, but might be held accountable should the Heat miss the playoffs again. After all, Pat Riley is going to have to find some scapegoat if things goes pear-shaped once more, won’t he? Too many ifs at AA Arena, so it’s a pass for us in Miami.
On the surface, the hiring of HC Scott Skiles appears a curious bit of business for the Orlando Magic (34½), given that the prickly Skiles has been run out of his previous three jobs with the Suns, Bulls, and Bucks. Short-term, however, Skiles has usually provided upgrades for his teams, and most NBA observers believe his disciplinarian approach might be what is needed for the young Magic roster that did not respond to the kinder and gentler approach of Jacque Vaughn, fired midway thru last season. Skiles inherits a roster full of lottery picks, with much intrigue surrounding first-round pick Mario Hezonja, a Croatian import who cut his teeth in high-level Euro play the past couple of years at FC Barcelona (the basketball team, not the soccer team). Along with Tobias Harris, Skiles has a couple of small forwards with much promise, and young Gs Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo have flashed considerable upside. We give the front office credit for sticking with its plan to build through the draft and not seek too many quick-fix answers in free agency. But whether the Magic has fermented enough to contend for the playoffs, or if Skiles is the right fit, remains to be seem. So we’ll just sit and watch how things transpire at Amway Center, with a no-call on the Magic.
