[h=1]2015 World Series betting guide[/h]MLB Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to MLB's preview of the 2016 season!
OK, not quite, but writers and commentators in all sports get accused -- often with good reason -- of overhyped misuse of the "potential World Series/Super Bowl/Finals matchup" narrative. However, in previewing the 2015 World Series we can actually turn the tables on that tired cliché. Thanks to a quirk in scheduling, the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals actually open the 2016 season against each other, which means for the first time in history the World Series will serve as a preview for 2016's Opening Day.
Of course, last year's World Series ended at Kauffman Stadium with Alex Gordon just 90 feet from home plate, and even closer to Pablo Sandoval as the Panda settled under Salvador Perez's foul pop, cementing the San Francisco Giants' third title in five seasons. The Mets seem to have followed a similar path to the World Series as the Giants, at least in terms of degree of difficulty. Huge underdogs in their opening National League Division Series, the Mets dispatched the Dodgers and still found themselves sizable underdogs to the Cubs in the NL Championship Series. Now they enter the World Series, ceding home-field advantage because of the NL's All-Star Game loss, as a toss-up versus the Royals.
As baseball fans, we'll all be lucky if the Series goes seven games and someone on this year's rosters joinsMadison Bumgarner as an October icon. Of course, Daniel Murphy is probably already part of a select club, whose members don't need to pay for their own drinks in New York City. Not to sell short the electric starting rotation, but Murphy's record-breaking offensive heroics are the primary reason the Mets are in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2000.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Last year's Royals squad was a feel-good, overachieving, underdog story, but that is definitely not the case this year, despite the relative lack of respect they've been getting from oddsmakers. Kansas City won the most games in the far-superior league and thanks to improved year-over-year performance from the roster, as well as key in-season pickups, this year's squad is markedly better than last year's pennant winners. So are oddsmakers underestimating the Royals or has the Mets' 7-2 postseason record, capped by an utterly dominating sweep of the Chicago Cubs, finally earned them the respect they deserve?
Our Chalk baseball experts give their take on the Series. As incredible as Murphy has been, on the scoreboard Chalk readers care about, Peta and Lange have been equally hot. During the playoffs Peta is 8-1 (+7.95 units) making picks in this space while Lange is 5-1 (+4.0 units). Joining them will be a name familiar to all Chalk readers -- Dave Tuley takes time out from his busy chronicling of the football season to add his thoughts as well.
[h=2]New York Mets (-110) vs. Kansas City Royals (-110)[/h]Joe Peta: The only reason the Royals aren't defending a World Series crown this year is that they faced Bumgarner in more than one-third of the innings they played in the 2015 Fall Classic. In the 40 innings they didn't face Bumgarner last October, the Royals scored 26 runs, or an average of nearly six runs a game. They did it by putting the ball in play and while they've got the same offensive characteristics this year (15.9 percent strikeout rate, by far the lowest in MLB), they've added American League-average slugging to the mix. They have the exact antidote needed to neutralize the flame-throwing starting rotation of the Mets -- contact directed at fielders who are average, at best.
How important is fielding? In 2015, the Mets' starting pitchers were vastly more skilled than the Royals', and over the course of the year it was even more pronounced than the rosters you're looking at Tuesday night, thanks to the starters who aren't part of Kansas City's October rotation (think Joe Blanton, among others). Yet, the Royals gave up only 28 more runs than the Mets, which adjusted for designated hitters faced is actually less than the Mets allowed. The reason is primarily defense, which in Kansas City's case is so good it turns a bunch of No. 3 starters into, while not aces, at least an above-average staff. The bullpen and offense are the final ingredients of a 95-win team.
Amid all the talk about bagels vs. BBQ and Blue Smoke vs. Royals blue, it's most likely the difference in defense that's going to be the deciding factor in the series. That factor is certainly enough for me to separate the two teams -- in a Louis C.K. world, I'm a decidedly K.C. guy.
Series pick: Royals in 6.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City (-110) for the series, Kansas City (-105) for Game 1
Andrew Lange: Visually, Edinson Volquez has looked really good this postseason. The numbers (4.32 ERA, three starts) don't necessarily support that conclusion but his velocity is way up from where it was at the end of the regular season. Further, two of his three outings came on the road against a pair of the more potent offenses in the league in Houston and Toronto. In his one start at pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, he threw six scoreless innings against the Blue Jays.
Matt Harvey was dominant in his two playoff starts with 16 strikeouts and four earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. I think Tuesday's start will be far tougher, though, with Harvey facing an American League lineup loaded with potent left-handed bats. It's worth noting that Harvey's velocity has been on a small but noticeable decline over the back half of the season. After working his way into shape, Harvey was routinely 97-98 mph for about a three-month stretch. Over his past five starts, including his Game 1 start against the Cubs, he was 94-95 mph. Considering his career-high workload this season, that's definitely something to keep an eye on.
Once again Kansas City isn't getting much respect in the betting markets, but the Royals have quietly been the best offensive team throughout the postseason, and with the exception of a Johnny Cueto meltdown (2 IP, 8 ER vs. Toronto), rock solid on the bump. In fact, Cueto is my biggest issue with supporting the Royals from a series perspective. I will however be on them in Game 1 at the pick 'em price.
ESPN Chalk pick: Pass on the series, Kansas City (-105) for Game 1
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Dave Tuley: Unlike last year when I rode a futures bet on the Giants (20-1) as my best bet to win the 2015 World Series, this year none of my published picks (Giants, Angels) are still alive. However, I do have a play I like and that's the Royals at -110. As the odds indicate, these teams are pretty evenly matched, but while the Mets have the pitching edge, I keep coming back to how this Royals team never gives up and can find any way to beat you, whether it's playing small ball or with defense, etc. Last year, when I decided to stick with the very veteran and equally resourceful Giants, I thought "the Royals are a year away" as they came from nowhere on their World Series run. I have the same feeling now about the Mets.
As for individual games, I'll certainly be on the Royals more games than not (especially when they'll be getting juicier prices in the games in New York). I'll also be looking to play the unders in most games as pitching should dominate and I expect the majority of games to be very low-scoring, so I'm starting with the under 7 (and you can already get even money or better) in Game 1.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City (-110) for the series, under 7 (+100) for Game 1
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to MLB's preview of the 2016 season!
OK, not quite, but writers and commentators in all sports get accused -- often with good reason -- of overhyped misuse of the "potential World Series/Super Bowl/Finals matchup" narrative. However, in previewing the 2015 World Series we can actually turn the tables on that tired cliché. Thanks to a quirk in scheduling, the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals actually open the 2016 season against each other, which means for the first time in history the World Series will serve as a preview for 2016's Opening Day.
Of course, last year's World Series ended at Kauffman Stadium with Alex Gordon just 90 feet from home plate, and even closer to Pablo Sandoval as the Panda settled under Salvador Perez's foul pop, cementing the San Francisco Giants' third title in five seasons. The Mets seem to have followed a similar path to the World Series as the Giants, at least in terms of degree of difficulty. Huge underdogs in their opening National League Division Series, the Mets dispatched the Dodgers and still found themselves sizable underdogs to the Cubs in the NL Championship Series. Now they enter the World Series, ceding home-field advantage because of the NL's All-Star Game loss, as a toss-up versus the Royals.
As baseball fans, we'll all be lucky if the Series goes seven games and someone on this year's rosters joinsMadison Bumgarner as an October icon. Of course, Daniel Murphy is probably already part of a select club, whose members don't need to pay for their own drinks in New York City. Not to sell short the electric starting rotation, but Murphy's record-breaking offensive heroics are the primary reason the Mets are in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2000.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Last year's Royals squad was a feel-good, overachieving, underdog story, but that is definitely not the case this year, despite the relative lack of respect they've been getting from oddsmakers. Kansas City won the most games in the far-superior league and thanks to improved year-over-year performance from the roster, as well as key in-season pickups, this year's squad is markedly better than last year's pennant winners. So are oddsmakers underestimating the Royals or has the Mets' 7-2 postseason record, capped by an utterly dominating sweep of the Chicago Cubs, finally earned them the respect they deserve?
Our Chalk baseball experts give their take on the Series. As incredible as Murphy has been, on the scoreboard Chalk readers care about, Peta and Lange have been equally hot. During the playoffs Peta is 8-1 (+7.95 units) making picks in this space while Lange is 5-1 (+4.0 units). Joining them will be a name familiar to all Chalk readers -- Dave Tuley takes time out from his busy chronicling of the football season to add his thoughts as well.
[h=2]New York Mets (-110) vs. Kansas City Royals (-110)[/h]Joe Peta: The only reason the Royals aren't defending a World Series crown this year is that they faced Bumgarner in more than one-third of the innings they played in the 2015 Fall Classic. In the 40 innings they didn't face Bumgarner last October, the Royals scored 26 runs, or an average of nearly six runs a game. They did it by putting the ball in play and while they've got the same offensive characteristics this year (15.9 percent strikeout rate, by far the lowest in MLB), they've added American League-average slugging to the mix. They have the exact antidote needed to neutralize the flame-throwing starting rotation of the Mets -- contact directed at fielders who are average, at best.
How important is fielding? In 2015, the Mets' starting pitchers were vastly more skilled than the Royals', and over the course of the year it was even more pronounced than the rosters you're looking at Tuesday night, thanks to the starters who aren't part of Kansas City's October rotation (think Joe Blanton, among others). Yet, the Royals gave up only 28 more runs than the Mets, which adjusted for designated hitters faced is actually less than the Mets allowed. The reason is primarily defense, which in Kansas City's case is so good it turns a bunch of No. 3 starters into, while not aces, at least an above-average staff. The bullpen and offense are the final ingredients of a 95-win team.
Amid all the talk about bagels vs. BBQ and Blue Smoke vs. Royals blue, it's most likely the difference in defense that's going to be the deciding factor in the series. That factor is certainly enough for me to separate the two teams -- in a Louis C.K. world, I'm a decidedly K.C. guy.
Series pick: Royals in 6.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City (-110) for the series, Kansas City (-105) for Game 1
Andrew Lange: Visually, Edinson Volquez has looked really good this postseason. The numbers (4.32 ERA, three starts) don't necessarily support that conclusion but his velocity is way up from where it was at the end of the regular season. Further, two of his three outings came on the road against a pair of the more potent offenses in the league in Houston and Toronto. In his one start at pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, he threw six scoreless innings against the Blue Jays.
Matt Harvey was dominant in his two playoff starts with 16 strikeouts and four earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. I think Tuesday's start will be far tougher, though, with Harvey facing an American League lineup loaded with potent left-handed bats. It's worth noting that Harvey's velocity has been on a small but noticeable decline over the back half of the season. After working his way into shape, Harvey was routinely 97-98 mph for about a three-month stretch. Over his past five starts, including his Game 1 start against the Cubs, he was 94-95 mph. Considering his career-high workload this season, that's definitely something to keep an eye on.
Once again Kansas City isn't getting much respect in the betting markets, but the Royals have quietly been the best offensive team throughout the postseason, and with the exception of a Johnny Cueto meltdown (2 IP, 8 ER vs. Toronto), rock solid on the bump. In fact, Cueto is my biggest issue with supporting the Royals from a series perspective. I will however be on them in Game 1 at the pick 'em price.
ESPN Chalk pick: Pass on the series, Kansas City (-105) for Game 1
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Dave Tuley: Unlike last year when I rode a futures bet on the Giants (20-1) as my best bet to win the 2015 World Series, this year none of my published picks (Giants, Angels) are still alive. However, I do have a play I like and that's the Royals at -110. As the odds indicate, these teams are pretty evenly matched, but while the Mets have the pitching edge, I keep coming back to how this Royals team never gives up and can find any way to beat you, whether it's playing small ball or with defense, etc. Last year, when I decided to stick with the very veteran and equally resourceful Giants, I thought "the Royals are a year away" as they came from nowhere on their World Series run. I have the same feeling now about the Mets.
As for individual games, I'll certainly be on the Royals more games than not (especially when they'll be getting juicier prices in the games in New York). I'll also be looking to play the unders in most games as pitching should dominate and I expect the majority of games to be very low-scoring, so I'm starting with the under 7 (and you can already get even money or better) in Game 1.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City (-110) for the series, under 7 (+100) for Game 1
