[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 8[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
"Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." This is not only one of former President George W. Bush's favorite idioms, but it's also a defining philosophy for many. The adage counsels people to either learn from their mistake or repeat that blunder at their own peril.
This attitude could easily be applied to bettors, who won't allow themselves to repeatedly be crushed by the same teams. After all, if you're losing money betting on the same team, why would you want to continue that self-destructive behavior?
If you're a frequent reader of this column, you know we tend to be oppositional to mainstream convention. We extract value by taking teams others won't and grabbing artificially inflated lines based on public perception. Our newest betting system expresses that ideology, and it has posted a 101-67 against-the-spread (ATS) record since the start of the 2003 NFL season.
Our systems are based on questioning traditional thinking, then testing our own contrarian beliefs. Our latest hypothesis is simple and reminiscent of our Week 6 system: Bettors overreact to teams that have performed poorly against the spread.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Lions, Cowboys and Ravens have each covered the closing spread just once this season, making them the three worst teams for bettors. The impact of these performances is profound, with Detroit and Baltimore each receiving less than 25 percent of spread bets.
Watch football with somebody who has taken any of these three teams, and you'll witness an experience similar to the Chappelle Show's "Player Haters Ball" sketch. People throw around barbs such as, "I don't even know you and I hate your guts," "I hope all the bad things in life happen to you and nobody else but you," and much, much worse.
We preach the importance of buying on bad news. You can't buy any lower than when a team consistently fails to cover the spread.
The creation of our Week 8 betting system required only one filter from our Bet Labs data analysis software: Against the Spread Recent Win Percentage. We found any team with one or fewer wins against the spread in a seven-game stretch had bounced back to cover the spread in their eighth game 60 percent of the time.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 8 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Note: For the purposes of the analysis above, we removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two teams with one or fewer ATS wins played in the previous week, that result is not included in our system record because it will always produce a 1-1 ATS record.
Why does this work?
Our past research shows that a majority of public bettors overreact, refusing to choose teams that haven't covered the spread in recent weeks. Oddsmakers can anticipate this public betting and will shade their opening lines and force bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. These shaded lines create artificial line value for contrarians willing to go against the grain.
Last week, our betting system matches posted a 2-0 ATS record, which improves our season record to 13-10 against the spread. This week, we will look to continue that success with two more value picks.
[h=2]Week 8 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. San Diego Chargers
Prior to the start of the season, the Ravens (+1,700) had the seventh-best odds of winning the Super Bowl. Almost halfway through the season, Baltimore has just one win and one cover, which leaves many Ravens fans looking forward to next April's NFL draft.
The Ravens opened as three-point home favorites and have received just 22 percent of early spread bets. Despite this one-sided public betting, the Ravens have moved from -3 to -3.5. This reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money is pounding Baltimore.
Detroit Lions (+4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It has been a rough few days for the Lions. Just one week removed from posting their first win of the season, the Lions lost at home to the division-rival Vikings and fired their offensive coordinator and two offensive line coaches. That's the type of bad news we love to buy on.
In the third and final London game of the season, the Lions opened as a four-point underdog and have since moved to +4.5. That half-point line move is more significant than you may realize, since "4" is the fifth-most common margin of victory in the NFL.
Adding value is that there was actually a steam move trigged on the Lions at CRIS -- one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks. Steam moves refer to sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports-betting marketplace and are an excellent indicator of sharp money.
Many offshore sportsbooks are still offering Detroit +5, so make sure to shop for the best line before playing your bet on this game.
*Dallas Cowboys (+6) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Although this game doesn't technically fit our system, that's only because the Cowboys have already had their bye week, meaning they have played only six games. Teams with just one or fewer wins against the spread in a six-game stretch have gone 193-151 against the spread (56.1 percent) in the seventh game and, although this winning percentage is lower than our featured system, it does have a much larger sample size. There are also too many sharp-money indicators on Dallas to ignore.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Cowboys are currently receiving just 23 percent of spread bets and also fit our Week 7 betting system, which focuses on the sweet spot for betting against the public. Plus, Jason Garrett has gone 22-12 against the spread as an underdog, while the Seahawks have been significantly worse on the road (45-57 against the spread) than they have been at home (64-41 against the spread).
Dallas also fits a lucrative betting system that has gone 63-34 against the spread (64.9 percent) and focuses on playoff teams from the previous season when they're underdogs following a loss.
Dez Bryant could be making his triumphant return this week, so it's the perfect opportunity to buy low on the Cowboys and sell high after a big win by the Seahawks in a nationally televised game.
These lines are always subject to change, so be sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
ESPN INSIDER
"Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." This is not only one of former President George W. Bush's favorite idioms, but it's also a defining philosophy for many. The adage counsels people to either learn from their mistake or repeat that blunder at their own peril.
This attitude could easily be applied to bettors, who won't allow themselves to repeatedly be crushed by the same teams. After all, if you're losing money betting on the same team, why would you want to continue that self-destructive behavior?
If you're a frequent reader of this column, you know we tend to be oppositional to mainstream convention. We extract value by taking teams others won't and grabbing artificially inflated lines based on public perception. Our newest betting system expresses that ideology, and it has posted a 101-67 against-the-spread (ATS) record since the start of the 2003 NFL season.
Our systems are based on questioning traditional thinking, then testing our own contrarian beliefs. Our latest hypothesis is simple and reminiscent of our Week 6 system: Bettors overreact to teams that have performed poorly against the spread.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Lions, Cowboys and Ravens have each covered the closing spread just once this season, making them the three worst teams for bettors. The impact of these performances is profound, with Detroit and Baltimore each receiving less than 25 percent of spread bets.
Watch football with somebody who has taken any of these three teams, and you'll witness an experience similar to the Chappelle Show's "Player Haters Ball" sketch. People throw around barbs such as, "I don't even know you and I hate your guts," "I hope all the bad things in life happen to you and nobody else but you," and much, much worse.
We preach the importance of buying on bad news. You can't buy any lower than when a team consistently fails to cover the spread.
The creation of our Week 8 betting system required only one filter from our Bet Labs data analysis software: Against the Spread Recent Win Percentage. We found any team with one or fewer wins against the spread in a seven-game stretch had bounced back to cover the spread in their eighth game 60 percent of the time.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-Game Against the Spread Winning Percentage <15% | 101-67 (60.1%) | +28.60 | +17.0% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 8 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Note: For the purposes of the analysis above, we removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two teams with one or fewer ATS wins played in the previous week, that result is not included in our system record because it will always produce a 1-1 ATS record.
Why does this work?
Our past research shows that a majority of public bettors overreact, refusing to choose teams that haven't covered the spread in recent weeks. Oddsmakers can anticipate this public betting and will shade their opening lines and force bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. These shaded lines create artificial line value for contrarians willing to go against the grain.
Last week, our betting system matches posted a 2-0 ATS record, which improves our season record to 13-10 against the spread. This week, we will look to continue that success with two more value picks.
[h=2]Week 8 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. San Diego Chargers
Prior to the start of the season, the Ravens (+1,700) had the seventh-best odds of winning the Super Bowl. Almost halfway through the season, Baltimore has just one win and one cover, which leaves many Ravens fans looking forward to next April's NFL draft.
The Ravens opened as three-point home favorites and have received just 22 percent of early spread bets. Despite this one-sided public betting, the Ravens have moved from -3 to -3.5. This reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money is pounding Baltimore.
Detroit Lions (+4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It has been a rough few days for the Lions. Just one week removed from posting their first win of the season, the Lions lost at home to the division-rival Vikings and fired their offensive coordinator and two offensive line coaches. That's the type of bad news we love to buy on.
In the third and final London game of the season, the Lions opened as a four-point underdog and have since moved to +4.5. That half-point line move is more significant than you may realize, since "4" is the fifth-most common margin of victory in the NFL.
Adding value is that there was actually a steam move trigged on the Lions at CRIS -- one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks. Steam moves refer to sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports-betting marketplace and are an excellent indicator of sharp money.
Many offshore sportsbooks are still offering Detroit +5, so make sure to shop for the best line before playing your bet on this game.
*Dallas Cowboys (+6) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Although this game doesn't technically fit our system, that's only because the Cowboys have already had their bye week, meaning they have played only six games. Teams with just one or fewer wins against the spread in a six-game stretch have gone 193-151 against the spread (56.1 percent) in the seventh game and, although this winning percentage is lower than our featured system, it does have a much larger sample size. There are also too many sharp-money indicators on Dallas to ignore.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Cowboys are currently receiving just 23 percent of spread bets and also fit our Week 7 betting system, which focuses on the sweet spot for betting against the public. Plus, Jason Garrett has gone 22-12 against the spread as an underdog, while the Seahawks have been significantly worse on the road (45-57 against the spread) than they have been at home (64-41 against the spread).
Dallas also fits a lucrative betting system that has gone 63-34 against the spread (64.9 percent) and focuses on playoff teams from the previous season when they're underdogs following a loss.
Dez Bryant could be making his triumphant return this week, so it's the perfect opportunity to buy low on the Cowboys and sell high after a big win by the Seahawks in a nationally televised game.
These lines are always subject to change, so be sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
