If you could only look at a few stats before picking a side in NFL......

DNoonan · Oct 29, 2015

What would they be? Curious what others focus on.

Here is the current week matchup I have for the colts panthers....I have a spreadsheet tab for each matchup and a rough predicted line and then start looking at each game and watching some nfl rewind of teams on my short list. I look at a lot of things and I suppose it varies based on the matchup in terms of what i emphasize and how much weight to put on numbers (vs. latest trend in play like Miami).

Thoughts?

Offense		Defense
	Home	Away	League		Home	Away	League
Team Name>>>>>	Carolina Panthers	Indianapolis Colts	Avg	Team Name>>>>>	Carolina Panthers	Indianapolis Colts	Avg
Item	Detail	Detail	Detail	Item	Detail	Detail	Detail
Points Scored	27	21	23.4	Points Allowed	18.3	24.9	23.2
Yds Req'd Per Pt.	12.75	16.73	15.4	Yds Req'd Per Pt	18.57	16.41
Time of Possession	30.26	28.19	--
Off. Rank - Total	22	17	--	Def Rank - Total	9	32
Off. Rank - Rush	1	26	--	Def Rank - Rush	18	23
Off. Rank - Pass	29	10	--	Def Rank - Pass	8	29
Yds/Game - Total	344.2	351.3	359	Yds/Game - Total	339.8	408.6	358
		+7.1				+68.8
Yds/Game - Pass	199.5	257.7	247.9	Yds/Game - Pass	229.8	285.9	247.6
		+58.2				+56.1
Yds/Game - Rush	144.7	93.6	110.7	Yds/Game - Rush	110	122.7	110.1
	+51.1		+17.143			+12.7
Passing At. / Game	30.2	40.9	35.8	Passed on / Game	42.5	38.6	36.0
Completion %	56%	58%	64%	Completion % vs	59%	64%	64%
Yds Per Pass Att	7.0	6.6	7.3	Yds Allow Per PA	5.4	7.4	6.9
	+0.42					+1.999
Yds Per Compl	12.6	11.4	11.5	Yds Allow Compl	9.2	11.5	10.8
	+1.23					+2.289
Rushing Att. / Gm	32.8	21.9	26.4	Rushed on / game	25.7	29.6	26.3
Yards per Rush	4.4	4.3	4.2	Yards per Rush	4.3	4.1	4.2
	+0.1				+0.2
Sacks Taken	11	15	15	Sacks	18	10	15
3rd D Conv. %	36.1	40	38.4	3rd D Conv %
Fumbles Lost (pass)	0	0	1.1	Forced Fumbles	3	4	5.4
Fumbles Lost (rush)	1	4	1.2
INTs Thrown	7	9	6.0	INTs (takeaways)	9	7	6.0
Penalties #	38	56	48.4
Penalty Yards	315	459	409.2
1st Downs/Game	21.5	20.4	20.4
4th Down Conv. %	66.7	57.1	50.8
4th Downs Made	2	4	3.1
Passing TDs	9	14	10.5	Passing TD Allowed	5	12	10.5
Rushing TDs	7	3	5.0	Rushing TD Allowed	6	8	5.0

Away Team Results
Indianapolis Colts
Week	@	vs.	Team Score	vs. Score	Margin	Op Rec	Op D	Var	Op O	D Var
1	H	Buffalo Bills	14	27	-13	fill	24.7	-10.7	25.1	-1.9
2	H	New York Jets	7	20	-13	fill	17.5	-10.5	25.3	5.3
3	A	Tennessee Titans	35	33	2	fill	23.2	11.8	19.8	-13.2
4	H	Jacksonville Jaguars	16	13	3	fill	29.6	-13.6	21	8
5	A	Houston Texans	27	20	7	fill	28.4	-1.4	22	2
6	H	New England Patriots	27	34	-7	fill	21	6	35.5	1.5
7	H	New Orleans Saints	21	27	-6	fill	26.4	-5.4	23	-4
8
							AVG	-3.4		-0.3
							MED	-5.4		1.5

Home Team Results
Carolina Panthers
Week	@	vs.	Team Score	vs. Score	Margin	Op Rec	Op D	Var	Op O	D Var
1	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	20	9	11	fill	29.6	-9.6	21	12
2	H	Houston Texans	24	17	7	fill	28.4	-4.4	22	5
3	H	New Orleans Saints	27	22	5	fill	26.4	0.6	23	1
4	H	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	37	23	14	fill	29.8	7.2	23.3	0.3
5	--	bye	--	--
6	A	Seattle Seahawks	27	23	4	fill	18.3	8.7	22	-1
7	H	Philadelphia Eagles	27	16	11	fill	19.6	7.4	22.9	6.9
8
							AVG	1.7		4.0
							MED	3.9		3

DNoonan · Oct 29, 2015

Some that I focus on.....a loose top 10 shooting from the hip

yards per rush
yards per rush allowed
3rd down conversion %
yards required per point (and allowed)
avg/median score variance from opponent avg (more emphasis now that we have more games)
opponent record
sacks taken/allowed
turnovers
penalties (look how much better the panthers have been than the colts)
time of possession

DNoonan · Oct 29, 2015

i'd also say I place less emphasis on record and absolute numbers and significantly more on variance figures and mismatches when reading the numbers/matchups

i also highlight any areas where teams are significantly different from eachother (or the leage avg) in areas not on the list above (like number of rushing or passing TDs allowed)

i feel like sacks is also a stat that can be really helpful as a proxy for the strength of the O/D lines, especially when combined with rushing statistics

ok enough from me. anyone else?

FairWarning · Oct 29, 2015

Pass D ranking and 3rd down effiency.

Willie99 · Oct 29, 2015

turnovers turnovers turnovers

if you know who wins that battle, you're a big time winner

DNoonan · Oct 29, 2015

Willie99 said:
turnovers turnovers turnovers

if you know who wins that battle, you're a big time winner

yeah def in my top 10, but sometimes i wonder if it is as predictable/repeatable as some of the other stats (like rushing efficiency stuff)

thanks for the input

DNoonan · Oct 29, 2015

FairWarning said:
Pass D ranking and 3rd down effiency.

those are solid....defensive 3rd down % is a stat i still need to find an easy way to bring into my spreadsheets each week

RunMaker · Oct 29, 2015

Is Lester Chestnut coaching?

Often times that's all you need. Just look at the Colts.

StraightXRS · Oct 29, 2015

line movement

MikeB · Oct 29, 2015

Turnovers

Yards per pass

Yards per carry

Points for

Points against

seldomseen · Oct 29, 2015

scoreability
bendability
hog index
qb hurries
run eff
pass eff

DNoonan · Oct 29, 2015

MikeB said:
Turnovers

Yards per pass

Yards per carry

Points for

Points against

for these wouldnt it be better to look at points scored/against vs. the defensive/offensive avg of the team they played against each week? i put a fair amount of weight on it from mid season on....this is the next factor i want to analyze/use more in the predicted line my spreadsheet spits out...

skoda · Oct 30, 2015

I always match-up points scored/allowed

Rushing stands out on your sheet Carolina Rush yds ranked #1 vs Indy rush "D" #23

Total 46.5

Should be..... Carolina 23-10 but........ being Monday Night Football

Carolina 27-18 with Indy going for a 2 point conversion on final play? popcorn-eatinggif

MikeB · Oct 30, 2015

DNoonan said:
for these wouldnt it be better to look at points scored/against vs. the defensive/offensive avg of the team they played against each week? i put a fair amount of weight on it from mid season on....this is the next factor i want to analyze/use more in the predicted line my spreadsheet spits out...

Well, yes, but I start getting into that when I look at all games played, then put more emphasis on common opponents. If I don't have time, I'll look at the average points for vs. opponents points against, then vise versa.

TomGshotput · Oct 30, 2015

Market price. Everything should be built into that. If you can beat it, you will win; if you can't beat it you won't win.

And if you are one of the very few who can identify the things that aren't built into the market price, you're either already very rich and only making max bets, or you're a liar.

MikeB · Oct 30, 2015

TomGshotput said:
Market price. Everything should be built into that. If you can beat it, you will win; if you can't beat it you won't win.

And if you are one of the very few who can identify the things that aren't built into the market price, you're either already very rich and only making max bets, or you're a liar.

What do you mean exactly by a that?

DNoonan · Oct 30, 2015

Good input gents.

quick proposition for anyone who knows excel (and/or doesnt mind some small data entry)

this is the busy season for my job and I have been running low on time in terms of updating a few stats that I can't semi-automate
would anyone be interested in trading a little spreasheet maintenance each week for access to the file with all the matchups and predicted line?
i dont follow the predicted line blindly but it def gives me some games to take a closer look at
i want to bring in a few more rating systems (DVOA, SRS, Hog Index (seldomseen!)) and also need to pull records manually each week (or write a formula to calc it)
also need to bring in defensive 3rd down %
if we divide and conquer we can create something pretty sweet and we already have a strong start with what I have....just dont have time to both maintain as well as enhance it
we would use Box and/or email to share the info
PM me or post here if interested
let's combine forces and beat the books RX!

PatsFan1283 · Oct 30, 2015

A lot of ways to skin a cat. I only bet about 30-40 NFL side bets a year max but it usually is when a variable isn't priced in or has been priced in too much. The "New look Dolphins" last night an example of a variable being priced in too much.

Dallas is 0-fer ATS since Romo/Dez went down, clearly the market underrated how valuable they were to the Cowboys. Sure this seems a little crazy "How would the market underrate 2 of the most famous players in the NFL?", but Dallas w/o them is 1 of the worst teams in the league and has really only been priced as a mediocre team. Their first week out, they opened as PK at home vs Atlanta.

A large chunk of my bets come when market forces change and you need to "re-price" the teams all over again. It is pretty easy to make NFL lines when everything stays constant.

Pitt with Big Ben right now is a decent example of this, I think they're just a better team than Cincy with him in the lineup but they opened +1 this week. Sure, he may be limited but I'll take my chances that at 4-3 they wouldn't rush him back. Pitt should have an offense that is better than everyone but NE with Ben out there, we'll see.

As far as stats, the NFL is so fluid that you really need to use everything but I like looking at PFF grades for OLs a lot. So many OL injuries in the game now and sometimes a guy will go down and it just isn't even a thought.

phdinsports · Oct 30, 2015

Starting field positions for both Off and Def

Betallsports · Oct 30, 2015

Willie99 said:
turnovers turnovers turnovers

if you know who wins that battle, you're a big time winner

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If you could only look at a few stats before picking a side in NFL......

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