My 10 best Week 9 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups. This year has started off on a solid note.
In the first seven weeks my selections have now gone 65-15 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 43-35-2 (56 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 23Pittsburgh Panthers (+3)[/h]Thursday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
North Carolina has the stronger numbers, outgaining foes by 124 yards per game while Pitt is plus-49. However, upon closer inspection those numbers are flawed.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
North Carolina has faced only one FBS team with a winning record (4-3 Illinois) and has played two FCS opponents. The Tar Heels also lost to South Carolina, whereas Pitt's only loss was to No. 10 Iowa. North Carolina has faced five of its seven opponents in Chapel Hill, with only one true road game; Pitt has faced five of its first seven foes on the road and this is only its third home game. North Carolina has an improved defense with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, but against a light schedule, is allowing opponents 6 yards per game above their season average. Pitt is holding foes to 99 yards per game below their average despite playing many on the road. There are an amazing 29 home 'dogs this weekend and I will pick the first one of the week to open with an upset.
ATS pick: Pitt
Score: Pitt 28, North Carolina 27
[h=2]No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-9.5) at No. 21 Temple Owls[/h]8 p.m. ET ABC
The only matchup of ranked foes this week features the Owls. Temple is a great story at 7-0, including a 27-10 win over Penn State, and featuring a defense that is giving up only 141 yards per game at home. The Owls moved up to No. 21 in the polls and will be on ABC in prime time.
That will bring a lot of attention and pressure to a team that hasn't been to a bowl game since 2011. Notre Dame will have a solid following of fans and already went into Clemson and had a 437-296 yard edge, despite losing 24-22. Temple has been outgained in three games this year and is just plus-39 yards per game on the season despite facing my 102nd-toughest schedule. Notre Dame is plus 129 yards per game against my No. 6-rated schedule. When the clock strikes midnight, Cinderella's unbeaten season will be over.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Temple 17
[h=2]Maryland Terrapins at No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes (-17)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET
Iowa really needed a bye the week before Northwestern as it was extremely banged up, yet the Hawkeyes went into Evanston and dominated with a 492-198 yard edge. Now they have had a week off and figure to be healthier. They are balanced on offense, averaging 214 yards per game rushing and 207 yards per game passing, and their defense is giving up only 294 yards per game, including just 2.2 yards per rush in Big Ten play. Maryland gave an all-out effort in Mike Locksley's first game as interim head coach but came up one point short against Penn State. The Terps are being outgained by 94 yards per game in Big Ten play, and Iowa is plus-103 yards per game. Maryland has lost four games by 21 or more points, and this will make it five.
ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 41, Maryland 17
[h=2]South Carolina Gamecocks (+16.5) at Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Noon ET, SEC
Just two weeks ago Texas A&M was undefeated, No. 9 in the AP poll, and even drew a first-place vote. They have now slipped out of the rankings and the quarterback job is up for grabs. Their defense, while improved, is giving up 5.3 yards per carry, 68 percent completions and is being outgained by 71 yards per game in conference play. South Carolina is a team that is trending upward. The Gamecocks have new enthusiasm at practice under interim head coach Shawn Elliot. The Gamecocks won his first game and had a bye to put in new wrinkles to the offense, which might include some triple option. South Carolina is 3-4, but a win here would give it a shot at getting to a bowl and keeping Elliot as the head coach. An upset would not be a surprise.
ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 24
[h=2]No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5) overTexas Tech Red Raiders[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Texas Tech has the edge on offense, but Oklahoma State has a large edge on defense as the Cowboys give up only 316 yards per game and the Red Raiders are giving up 562. In Big 12 play, Texas Tech is outgaining foes by four yards per game and the Cowboys are plus-131. Oklahoma State has won six in a row straight up in the series by 25 points per game (5-1 ATS). The Cowboys are fresh off a bye and a 58-10 win over Kansas. They've already won at Texas and at West Virginia, are getting stronger by the week, and I consider them a Big 12 title contender. Texas Tech has struggled against the big boys: The Red Raiders are 1-14 SU the last three years against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma, with their lone win coming against a 2013 TCU team that finished 4-8.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 38
[h=2]Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (+6)[/h]3 p.m. ET
Georgia Tech is off a miracle win over Florida State. Now, it has to go on the road where the home team is 16-4 SU the last 20 years in this series, winning four of the last five. The Yellow Jackets are playing a ninth straight week, and Virginia had a bye a few weeks back.
Last year Jon Tenuta's defense "held" Georgia Tech to 409 yards, which was the fifth best of any Georgia Tech opponent and 73 yards below its season average. Last year's Yellow Jackets offense averaged 477 yards but this year is averaging only 404. Virginia is 11-3 ATS as a 'dog, including 5-1 as a home 'dog with two outright upsets and also near upsets of UCLA and Notre Dame. Georgia Tech is not in that class and has already lost five games.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia 27
[h=2]No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+14)[/h]7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Michigan had a bye to recoup from the crazy last-play, botched punt loss to Michigan State. Minnesota just got the sad news that Jerry Kill has stepped down as coach and Tracy Claeys will be the interim head coach. Claeys filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a great job. Minnesota was a 'dog in six of those games and went 6-1 ATS with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana. Michigan's defense is giving up only 211 yards per game, and Minnesota is giving up 329 yards per game. Michigan is averaging only 329 yards in Big Ten play, which makes it tough to cover a two-touchdown spread. Minnesota has won its last five as a home 'dog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons. I will take the points here.
ATS pick: Minnesota
Score: Michigan 20, Minnesota 13
[h=2]No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners (-39) at Kansas Jayhawks[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
I made a mistake last week by putting Baylor on this page over Iowa State, as I didn't check the weather in advance, and it turned out to be a steady downpour. Early weather shows rain in the morning clearing out by afternoon and 63 degrees. My computer says Oklahoma is the fourth-best team in the country with both its offense and defense in the top 10. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and the Sooners have rushed for 319 yards per game and thrown for 274 yards per game the last two, although that came against middle-of-the-road Big 12 teams in Kansas State and Texas Tech. Kansas is much worse (Texas Tech was favored over Jayhawks by 32.5). Kansas's defense is giving up 581 yards per game in Big 12 play, including 5.5 yards per carry and 69 percent completions. Last year Samaje Perine set an NCAA record by rushing for 427 yards against Kansas. The Sooners have only Iowa State on deck. Oklahoma wins big here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 51, Kansas 3
[h=2]Georgia Bulldogs (+3) vs. No. 11 Florida Gators (in Jacksonville)[/h]7 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Gators impressed me in their last game as they went into LSU without quarterback Will Grier and lost by only 7. Florida has one of the top defenses in the country, giving up only 314 yards per game, but Georgia actually yields only 308. Both teams are off a bye and Georgia is plus-64 yards per game in SEC play, and Florida is being outgained by 3 yards per game. Georgia holds the edge on special teams as well. A Florida win here basically puts them in the SEC title game, but believe it or not, so does a win for Georgia as both will be favored in their final two SEC games. Georgia is a 'dog for the first time in 24 games (at Auburn in 2013).
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Florida 17
[h=2]Oregon State Beavers at No. 13 Utah Utes(-24)[/h]7:30 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right;">
</article>I went against Utah last week and they were handled 42-24 by USC. Normally, I like to go against a team that had their national title bubble burst, but here I like the home team. Utah has taken on the second-toughest schedule in the country and was playing with mounting pressure last week; now the Utes will be looser. Oregon State is in a rebuilding year and the Beavers have struggled on the road, being outgained by an average of 523-260 and losing by 29 points per game. Utah defensive players may show a little extra passion after their well-liked defensive coordinator Kilane Sitake left them for Oregon State in the offseason. Utah still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 40, Oregon State 10
<footer class="article-footer" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; padding-top: 0px; max-width: 700px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"></footer>
Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups. This year has started off on a solid note.
In the first seven weeks my selections have now gone 65-15 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 43-35-2 (56 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 23Pittsburgh Panthers (+3)[/h]Thursday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
North Carolina has the stronger numbers, outgaining foes by 124 yards per game while Pitt is plus-49. However, upon closer inspection those numbers are flawed.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
North Carolina has faced only one FBS team with a winning record (4-3 Illinois) and has played two FCS opponents. The Tar Heels also lost to South Carolina, whereas Pitt's only loss was to No. 10 Iowa. North Carolina has faced five of its seven opponents in Chapel Hill, with only one true road game; Pitt has faced five of its first seven foes on the road and this is only its third home game. North Carolina has an improved defense with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, but against a light schedule, is allowing opponents 6 yards per game above their season average. Pitt is holding foes to 99 yards per game below their average despite playing many on the road. There are an amazing 29 home 'dogs this weekend and I will pick the first one of the week to open with an upset.
ATS pick: Pitt
Score: Pitt 28, North Carolina 27
[h=2]No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-9.5) at No. 21 Temple Owls[/h]8 p.m. ET ABC
The only matchup of ranked foes this week features the Owls. Temple is a great story at 7-0, including a 27-10 win over Penn State, and featuring a defense that is giving up only 141 yards per game at home. The Owls moved up to No. 21 in the polls and will be on ABC in prime time.
That will bring a lot of attention and pressure to a team that hasn't been to a bowl game since 2011. Notre Dame will have a solid following of fans and already went into Clemson and had a 437-296 yard edge, despite losing 24-22. Temple has been outgained in three games this year and is just plus-39 yards per game on the season despite facing my 102nd-toughest schedule. Notre Dame is plus 129 yards per game against my No. 6-rated schedule. When the clock strikes midnight, Cinderella's unbeaten season will be over.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Temple 17
[h=2]Maryland Terrapins at No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes (-17)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET
Iowa really needed a bye the week before Northwestern as it was extremely banged up, yet the Hawkeyes went into Evanston and dominated with a 492-198 yard edge. Now they have had a week off and figure to be healthier. They are balanced on offense, averaging 214 yards per game rushing and 207 yards per game passing, and their defense is giving up only 294 yards per game, including just 2.2 yards per rush in Big Ten play. Maryland gave an all-out effort in Mike Locksley's first game as interim head coach but came up one point short against Penn State. The Terps are being outgained by 94 yards per game in Big Ten play, and Iowa is plus-103 yards per game. Maryland has lost four games by 21 or more points, and this will make it five.
ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 41, Maryland 17
[h=2]South Carolina Gamecocks (+16.5) at Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Noon ET, SEC
Just two weeks ago Texas A&M was undefeated, No. 9 in the AP poll, and even drew a first-place vote. They have now slipped out of the rankings and the quarterback job is up for grabs. Their defense, while improved, is giving up 5.3 yards per carry, 68 percent completions and is being outgained by 71 yards per game in conference play. South Carolina is a team that is trending upward. The Gamecocks have new enthusiasm at practice under interim head coach Shawn Elliot. The Gamecocks won his first game and had a bye to put in new wrinkles to the offense, which might include some triple option. South Carolina is 3-4, but a win here would give it a shot at getting to a bowl and keeping Elliot as the head coach. An upset would not be a surprise.
ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 24
[h=2]No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5) overTexas Tech Red Raiders[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Texas Tech has the edge on offense, but Oklahoma State has a large edge on defense as the Cowboys give up only 316 yards per game and the Red Raiders are giving up 562. In Big 12 play, Texas Tech is outgaining foes by four yards per game and the Cowboys are plus-131. Oklahoma State has won six in a row straight up in the series by 25 points per game (5-1 ATS). The Cowboys are fresh off a bye and a 58-10 win over Kansas. They've already won at Texas and at West Virginia, are getting stronger by the week, and I consider them a Big 12 title contender. Texas Tech has struggled against the big boys: The Red Raiders are 1-14 SU the last three years against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma, with their lone win coming against a 2013 TCU team that finished 4-8.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 38
[h=2]Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (+6)[/h]3 p.m. ET
Georgia Tech is off a miracle win over Florida State. Now, it has to go on the road where the home team is 16-4 SU the last 20 years in this series, winning four of the last five. The Yellow Jackets are playing a ninth straight week, and Virginia had a bye a few weeks back.
Last year Jon Tenuta's defense "held" Georgia Tech to 409 yards, which was the fifth best of any Georgia Tech opponent and 73 yards below its season average. Last year's Yellow Jackets offense averaged 477 yards but this year is averaging only 404. Virginia is 11-3 ATS as a 'dog, including 5-1 as a home 'dog with two outright upsets and also near upsets of UCLA and Notre Dame. Georgia Tech is not in that class and has already lost five games.
ATS pick: Virginia
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia 27
[h=2]No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+14)[/h]7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Michigan had a bye to recoup from the crazy last-play, botched punt loss to Michigan State. Minnesota just got the sad news that Jerry Kill has stepped down as coach and Tracy Claeys will be the interim head coach. Claeys filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a great job. Minnesota was a 'dog in six of those games and went 6-1 ATS with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana. Michigan's defense is giving up only 211 yards per game, and Minnesota is giving up 329 yards per game. Michigan is averaging only 329 yards in Big Ten play, which makes it tough to cover a two-touchdown spread. Minnesota has won its last five as a home 'dog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons. I will take the points here.
ATS pick: Minnesota
Score: Michigan 20, Minnesota 13
[h=2]No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners (-39) at Kansas Jayhawks[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
I made a mistake last week by putting Baylor on this page over Iowa State, as I didn't check the weather in advance, and it turned out to be a steady downpour. Early weather shows rain in the morning clearing out by afternoon and 63 degrees. My computer says Oklahoma is the fourth-best team in the country with both its offense and defense in the top 10. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and the Sooners have rushed for 319 yards per game and thrown for 274 yards per game the last two, although that came against middle-of-the-road Big 12 teams in Kansas State and Texas Tech. Kansas is much worse (Texas Tech was favored over Jayhawks by 32.5). Kansas's defense is giving up 581 yards per game in Big 12 play, including 5.5 yards per carry and 69 percent completions. Last year Samaje Perine set an NCAA record by rushing for 427 yards against Kansas. The Sooners have only Iowa State on deck. Oklahoma wins big here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 51, Kansas 3
[h=2]Georgia Bulldogs (+3) vs. No. 11 Florida Gators (in Jacksonville)[/h]7 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Gators impressed me in their last game as they went into LSU without quarterback Will Grier and lost by only 7. Florida has one of the top defenses in the country, giving up only 314 yards per game, but Georgia actually yields only 308. Both teams are off a bye and Georgia is plus-64 yards per game in SEC play, and Florida is being outgained by 3 yards per game. Georgia holds the edge on special teams as well. A Florida win here basically puts them in the SEC title game, but believe it or not, so does a win for Georgia as both will be favored in their final two SEC games. Georgia is a 'dog for the first time in 24 games (at Auburn in 2013).
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Florida 17
[h=2]Oregon State Beavers at No. 13 Utah Utes(-24)[/h]7:30 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right;">
</article>I went against Utah last week and they were handled 42-24 by USC. Normally, I like to go against a team that had their national title bubble burst, but here I like the home team. Utah has taken on the second-toughest schedule in the country and was playing with mounting pressure last week; now the Utes will be looser. Oregon State is in a rebuilding year and the Beavers have struggled on the road, being outgained by an average of 523-260 and losing by 29 points per game. Utah defensive players may show a little extra passion after their well-liked defensive coordinator Kilane Sitake left them for Oregon State in the offseason. Utah still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 40, Oregon State 10
<footer class="article-footer" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto; overflow: hidden; padding-top: 0px; max-width: 700px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"></footer>
