Early Betting Notes For College Football Week 10

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[h=1]Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 10[/h]Will Harris, ESPN Contributor
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Dwight Garner's knee was also down in 1982, but the reason the Cal-Stanford play has been remembered over time as one of the sport's great finishes rather than one of the sport's darkest officiating gaffes is that the play was close enough to have been reasonably misinterpreted by the officials on the field given the available vantage points. ACC officials calling Miami (FL) at Duke gave us an unlikely special-teams play that many are claiming belongs in the all-time conversation with Cal-Stanford, and rivals the previous two weeks' Michigan-Michigan State and Georgia Tech-Florida State finishes. But the officiating errors on display were so monstrously egregious that this game deserves to be remembered only as one of the sport's all-time hose jobs and black moments.
When the game is over the game is over, and wins and losses are never overturned (except in the imagination of NCAA bureaucrats), so justice requires us to remember what really happened. This is also the week to remind everyone that until the final four are actually set, it's not the polls but the conference races that provide the drama worthy of our attention. We'll check in on all of them this week.
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so their numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.

[h=2]Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 9[/h]The Week 10 media focus will be squarely on the first dose of meaningless information about the prizes that are won off the field in this sport. But while that red herring will be fed to an eager and gullible public on Tuesday night, let's not forget about the 10 exciting championship races that will actually be decided on the field. We covered the Mountain West race in this space last week; here's a quick glance at the other nine.
Four-way battle in the AAC
Four teams -- Temple, Navy, Memphis and Houston -- are undefeated in league play and control their own destiny in the conference race. Temple has a two-game lead in the East division, and of the three West leaders plays only Memphis. The Tigers have the best offense of the group, led by ace triggermanPaxton Lynch, but Memphis is also the most one-dimensional of the four teams, relying on its offense to outscore opponents, whereas the other three have clear offensive identities but can hang their hats on consistent defensive performances as well.
Clarity coming to the ACC race this week
The winner of this week's Clemson-Florida State tilt will build a two-game lead that all but locks up the Atlantic division. The winner of Saturday's Duke at North Carolina clash will be in command of the Coastal division, and a Duke win lets Pittsburgh back into the co-pilot's seat as well.
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Big 12 race just now heating up, as intended
The league has controversially arranged its conference schedule so that the preseason favorites don't start playing each other until late in the year. That's drawn cries of foul play from coaches and media at the less fortunate schools forced to play front-heavy schedules less conducive to success, but it has achieved the desired effect, which is that the drama is just now beginning. It's a four-team race, and while Oklahoma is the only one of the group with a loss, all four still have equal control of the conference race. That will change this week when TCU visits Oklahoma State. On Thursday, postgame cameras caught Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson asking West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen how the latter liked TCU's chances against Baylor. Holgorsen's team played both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State immediately prior to Baylor, but no inquiries were made about those two teams. Patterson must hope his players do as he says and not as he does when it comes to looking past the Cowboys and Sooners to the season finale versus the Bears.
<aside class="inline inline-photo full" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">Three of the 11 remaining unbeatens hail from Big Ten
The Big Ten has a sordid history of embarrassing and irrational tiebreaker shenanigans (1973, 2010) and might again find itself relying on voters outside the conference to tell the league who its champions are. Michigan is a game down in the East to unbeatens Ohio State and Michigan State, but if the Buckeyes beat Sparty and lose to Michigan, the East champ could be determined by committee ranking.
Undefeated Iowa is driving in the West, but the Hawkeyes' November slate includes two road games and two trophy games, so a Wisconsin team that's playing its best ball of the year could theoretically slip back into the mix. The Badgers are also getting healthier while Iowa is not, though we have limited faith in Wisconsin's chances against Northwestern and especially Minnesota to close the year.
Eagles crashing Conference USA race
The expected favorites -- Western Kentucky and Marshall in the East, Louisiana Tech in the West -- are three of the teams still in control of the league race, but Southern Miss has risen from the ashes of a 4-32 record from 2012-14 and is now the fourth team in command of its own destiny. The Eagles are mostly doing it with offense, which is what they thought they'd be getting when Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Todd Monken was hired as head coach, but the defense is playing much better as well. Lack of institutional support will prevent Southern Miss from returning to its glory days as a small-school power until changes are made in the administration, but the current regime is in solid shape thanks to Monken's growth as a coach. No matter the résumé as coordinator, it's hard for us to form a good read on a coach's chances for success until we see him in that role for a while. It's still too early to say what Monken's ceiling is here, but we've been impressed with his development, as he's gone from clueless to confident in less than three years and has the Eagles headed for the postseason.
Unbeaten Toledo ready to depose kingpin NIU
Northern Illinois has won the more difficult West division five years running under three different head coaches, and has staved off upset in the title game to claim the MAC championship in three of those five. Toledo has lost to NIU in each of those five years, three times by a single score. Now the Rockets finally have the best team and catch the game at home as well. Whatever happens Tuesday night, Western Michigan still shares control of the race, and a good Central Michigan team lurks at just a game back. Both of those teams are tough to beat, and both remain on Toledo's schedule.
Bowling Green has a two-game lead in the East, but the Falcons' November schedule is a lot tougher than the soft October slate. However, a win versus Ohio on Wednesday would leave the Falcons needing just one more win to clinch the division. Like the Big 12 and AAC races, the MAC's better teams play each other mostly in November.
Pac-12 North all but decided; South still open.
Stanford can clinch the North division with a win over Oregon next week, and even with a loss would get a do-over chance versus Cal the following week. The Cardinal would actually still be favored to win the division even if it lost both those games.
Both Utah and UCLA control the South race, and any Utah loss would put USC back in command as well. If UCLA can knock off Utah in Week 12, the USC-UCLA game would be for all the marbles the following week.
Florida's unlikely division title run almost complete
The Gators clinch the East by beating either Vandy or South Carolina. They'll face one of Alabama, LSU or Ole Miss, with the latter two in control of the race currently, and Bama needing some help. The Rebels will be hard-pressed to make it through home games with Arkansas and LSU, and if they do, Dak Prescott still awaits them in Starkville. We doubt Ole Miss can run that gauntlet successfully, and if not the Rebs will need the LSU-Bama winner to drop a game somewhere else.
Preseason favorites on track in Sun Belt
Appalachian State whipped rival Georgia Southern last Thursday and remains unbeaten in league play. The Mountaineers share the top of the standings with Arkansas State, also 4-0 in SBC play. Those two clash this Thursday, with the winner taking sole control of the Sun Belt race. Louisiana and Georgia Southern still lurk with just one league loss.
[h=2]Games of Interest, Week 10[/h]Middle Tennessee State (-3) versus Marshall
Some tough-to-swallow last-second losses to Power 5 foes Illinois and Vandy put this team in the tank for a bit, but the Raiders have had an open date to regroup and still have some fight left. Marshall is 8-1 but has not faced a team ranked higher than 83rd in FPI.
Ohio State (-23) versus Minnesota
A highly emotional home game with an ending like that ... it will be very difficult for Minnesota to recover from the effects of losing to Michigan in time to prepare for what Ohio State brings to the field. The Gophers did a super job last week channeling their emotion over Jerry Kill's retirement into quality preparation and performance, but this week reality will set in and the task will be tougher.
South Alabama (-9.5) versus Idaho Texas State (-15) versus New Mexico State
We're tentatively interested in fading both participants in last week's Idaho-New Mexico State thriller as they hit the road for Week 10. Idaho let a 30-7 second-half lead slip away as New Mexico State scored twice in the final four minutes to tie the game, then won it in overtime. Idaho had a trying and travel-filled October that included an emotional win at Troy after the Vandals' delayed plane arrived just a few hours before kickoff. Now a third flight in four weeks comes on the heels of a devastating loss.
New Mexico State, for its part, is likely still celebrating the snapping of a 17-game losing streak. Bad teams often handle success poorly, and consequently don't usually show well twice in a row. A road trip to face a Texas State team that's had extra prep time and still has live bowl hopes is not an ideal scenario for the Aggies. California (+5.5) at Oregon
We'd say we like Cal because Jared Goff and the Bears' offense might light up the weak Oregon secondary to the tune of something like 500 passing yards, but Oregon has won two of the four games this year in which it allowed 530 yards or more. The latest was an overtime miracle versus Arizona State in which the Ducks were outgained 742-501 and lost the first-down battle 37-19. Instead, we'll say it's the combination of Goff and Cal's improved defense, which is allowing 26 points and 418 yards per game so far this season after giving up 46 points and 530 yards two years ago, and 40 points and 512 yards last season.

[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]Wednesday night's Bowling Green-Ohio clash opened with the Falcons as 15-point favorites, but that number has already climbed all the way to 19.
UNLV moved from minus-7 to minus-9.5 over Hawaii, whose head coach Norm Chow was fired Sunday.
Troy has been bet up from minus-6 to minus-10 at home versus Louisiana-Monroe.
Arizona State opened as a one-point road favorite in Pullman, but Washington State is now laying two.
South Alabama opened minus-6 versus Idaho, but has climbed to minus-9.5.
Central Florida, the only winless team in the FBS save Kansas, opened plus-13.5 at Tulsa, but that number is now plus-16.

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</article>Alabama has won four straight versus LSU, but the Saban-Miles series has been so competitive that in nine meetings, as many games have gone to overtime (three) as have been decided by more than a touchdown. The stakes have been so high that the demoralized loser has gone on to lose a subsequent game as a favorite in all but two seasons.
Syracuse has been outgained in every FBS contest this season and has gone over the total in all but one game. The winner has scored 20 points or fewer in all but one of Louisville's ACC games this year.
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was 1-3 versus Brian Kelly's Notre Dame teams as Michigan State's defensive coordinator. Pitt has beaten the Irish in four of their past eight meetings, and the underdog has covered nine straight in the series.
Three SEC meetings between Auburn and Texas A&M have produced at least 79 points, and each has gone over the total. Auburn rolled up 630 total yards of offense and outgained Alabama by nearly 100 yards in defeat last November, but in nine games since has not managed 450 total yards or 250 rushing yards in any game, has outgained only Mississippi State, and has covered just once -- that by a hair at Kentucky a few weeks ago.


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