[h=1]How to bet Cleveland-Cincinnati[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Week 9 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley is here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday.
[h=2]Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Spread: opened Cincinnati -10; now Cincinnati -11
Total: opened 47.5; now 45.5
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Dave Tuley says: I'm certainly tempted to take the double-digit underdog as it's a near-automatic play for me (NFL double-digit dogs are strong over the long run and 3-2 ATS so far this season), but I'm going to pass on Cleveland this time. Yes, I know the Browns upset the Bengals in a Thursday night game last year, but that was with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. When Johnny Manziel -- who is expected to start this game -- made his first NFL start later in the season against the Bengals, he was overwhelmed and Cincinnati won 30-0. Besides, ESPN's NFL Vegas Rankings have the Bengals rated 10 points better than the Browns on a neutral field, so this line still doesn't look like value.
Instead, I'll look to the over/under. Both meetings stayed under last year, but these teams are clearly over teams so far this season: Cleveland is 7-1 with the over (admittedly mostly with John McCown), while Cincinnati is 5-2. The Bengals' balanced attack should be able to move the ball at will against the Browns' 30th-ranked defense. I do think Manziel will have some success (and I hope so, as he's coming off my fantasy bench as a bye-week fill-in), and there's a decent possibility he could add to the over with a pick-six or another turnover deep in his own territory to set up the Bengals with a short field.
ATS pick: over 45.5 total points
Wunderdog says: The pressure here is on the Bengals, who are trying to become the 33rd team in NFL history to start 8-0. They come into this one on short rest after getting banged up in a physical game with the rival Steelers. RTAndre Smith (concussion) is out, and starting MLB Rey Maualuga (calf) has been limited in practice, along with LE Carlos Dunlap (shoulder). This looks like a mismatch to many, but remember that a year ago on this field, Cleveland notched a 24-3 victory.
Johnny Manziel gets the start and was embarrassed by the Bengals a year ago in his first career start. But that was a different year and a different player. He has improved, and this will be the second start this season for Manziel after he beat Tennessee in Week 2 (when Josh McCown was sidelined by a concussion), throwing for 172 yards and a pair of TDs with no picks. Cincinnati has not been a double-digit favorite since they played Jacksonville last season, failing to cover. Division games are usually close, and this is too many points." ATS pick: Browns +11
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]80.5 receiving yards by A.J. Green (-110 O/U)
John Parolin says: A.J. Green hasn't had the success in his career against the Browns that one would expect, given the relative quality of the teams over Green's five-year career. Green's eight-game résumé against Cleveland includes two games with at least 110 receiving yards and six with fewer than 60. Green's 2015 season is slightly similar, with two games of at least 118 receiving yards, an additional 82-yard game and four shy of the 80-yard mark.
The Bengals also run on 42 percent of their plays, the seventh-highest percentage in the league this year. This makes a lot of sense as a way to attack the Browns, as Cleveland has allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Browns are surrendering 4.8 yards per rush this season, and even when the Bengals pass, Green has more competition for yards. From 2011 to '14, Green accounted for 32.1 percent of Cincinnati's receiving yards, while only two other players (Jerome Simpson and TE Jermaine Gresham) checked in above 12 percent and are no longer with the team. This year, three other Bengals join Green above 12 percent, including tight end Tyler Eifert, who has emerged as a significant playmaker for the Bengals and is much more consistent than Gresham. Factor in Dalton's problems in prime time (not quite disproven this season), and there are enough factors here to take the under.
The pick: under
ESPN INSIDER
Week 9 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley is here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday.
Total: opened 47.5; now 45.5
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Dave Tuley says: I'm certainly tempted to take the double-digit underdog as it's a near-automatic play for me (NFL double-digit dogs are strong over the long run and 3-2 ATS so far this season), but I'm going to pass on Cleveland this time. Yes, I know the Browns upset the Bengals in a Thursday night game last year, but that was with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. When Johnny Manziel -- who is expected to start this game -- made his first NFL start later in the season against the Bengals, he was overwhelmed and Cincinnati won 30-0. Besides, ESPN's NFL Vegas Rankings have the Bengals rated 10 points better than the Browns on a neutral field, so this line still doesn't look like value.
Instead, I'll look to the over/under. Both meetings stayed under last year, but these teams are clearly over teams so far this season: Cleveland is 7-1 with the over (admittedly mostly with John McCown), while Cincinnati is 5-2. The Bengals' balanced attack should be able to move the ball at will against the Browns' 30th-ranked defense. I do think Manziel will have some success (and I hope so, as he's coming off my fantasy bench as a bye-week fill-in), and there's a decent possibility he could add to the over with a pick-six or another turnover deep in his own territory to set up the Bengals with a short field.
ATS pick: over 45.5 total points
Wunderdog says: The pressure here is on the Bengals, who are trying to become the 33rd team in NFL history to start 8-0. They come into this one on short rest after getting banged up in a physical game with the rival Steelers. RTAndre Smith (concussion) is out, and starting MLB Rey Maualuga (calf) has been limited in practice, along with LE Carlos Dunlap (shoulder). This looks like a mismatch to many, but remember that a year ago on this field, Cleveland notched a 24-3 victory.
Johnny Manziel gets the start and was embarrassed by the Bengals a year ago in his first career start. But that was a different year and a different player. He has improved, and this will be the second start this season for Manziel after he beat Tennessee in Week 2 (when Josh McCown was sidelined by a concussion), throwing for 172 yards and a pair of TDs with no picks. Cincinnati has not been a double-digit favorite since they played Jacksonville last season, failing to cover. Division games are usually close, and this is too many points." ATS pick: Browns +11
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]80.5 receiving yards by A.J. Green (-110 O/U)
John Parolin says: A.J. Green hasn't had the success in his career against the Browns that one would expect, given the relative quality of the teams over Green's five-year career. Green's eight-game résumé against Cleveland includes two games with at least 110 receiving yards and six with fewer than 60. Green's 2015 season is slightly similar, with two games of at least 118 receiving yards, an additional 82-yard game and four shy of the 80-yard mark.
The Bengals also run on 42 percent of their plays, the seventh-highest percentage in the league this year. This makes a lot of sense as a way to attack the Browns, as Cleveland has allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Browns are surrendering 4.8 yards per rush this season, and even when the Bengals pass, Green has more competition for yards. From 2011 to '14, Green accounted for 32.1 percent of Cincinnati's receiving yards, while only two other players (Jerome Simpson and TE Jermaine Gresham) checked in above 12 percent and are no longer with the team. This year, three other Bengals join Green above 12 percent, including tight end Tyler Eifert, who has emerged as a significant playmaker for the Bengals and is much more consistent than Gresham. Factor in Dalton's problems in prime time (not quite disproven this season), and there are enough factors here to take the under.
The pick: under
