[h=1]My 10 best Week 10 college football ATS bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 72-18 (80 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 48-40-2 against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning. Rankings from latest College Football Playoff standings.
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (+8.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Noon ET, ESPN2
North Carolina is much more efficient on offense this year. In 2014, the Tar Heels were No. 18 in plays run with 77.3 per game and No. 66 in yards per play (5.6). This year, they are only at No. 123 in plays run (62.9) but third in yards per play, improving to 7.5. Duke made a miracle comeback last week trailing by 12 with 3 minutes, 30 seconds to go, but <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">had it undone by the miracle lateral kickoff return. Last year, Duke was upset at home by North Carolina and that loss kept them out of the ACC title game so the Blue Devils are playing with legitimate revenge. This is a rivalry game, and each of the last three meetings has been an outright upset. Duke is outgaining its foes by 126 yards per game and the Tar Heels by 112. The clincher for me is that Duke is not only 8-1 ATS in its last nine regular season games when installed as a 'dog, but is 8-1 straight up in those.</offer>
ATS pick: Duke
Score: North Carolina 28, Duke 27
[h=2]No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8) atPittsburgh Panthers[/h]Noon ET, ABC
Last week, Notre Dame got to the Temple 14-yard line or inside three times and ended those drives with two turnovers and a short field goal. One of the drives was 14 plays, and another was 15. That inability to finish drives gives us some line value here. The defenses are close, but the Irish have a large edge on offense, averaging 496 yards per game and gaining 129 yards more than their opponents allow. Pitt averages 365 yards per game and gains 13 yards less per game than their opponents normally allow. I think the Irish cover this one.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Pitt 20
[h=2]No. 2 LSU Tigers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5)[/h]8 PM ET, CBS
All summer long on my radio show circuit, I said that LSU was my No. 2 surprise team (non-top 10 team that could win it all) in the country. Despite all the talk being about Alabama and Auburn, I said this game would resemble those game of the century matchups from 2011 and 2012 when both were in the top five when they met. This week, it's finally arrived. Both teams have great RBs, withLeonard Fournette having a slight edge on Derrick Henry. Both have top-notch defenses, but Bama is holding opponents to 172 yards below their season average and LSU at 102 yards below. Those other two top-five matchups were decided by just three and four points. I could make a great case for LSU, but my computer says Alabama by 10, and I agree. I will give a lean to the home team.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, LSU 20
[h=2]Auburn Tigers (+7.5) at No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Noon ET, SEC
Last week, I used South Carolina in this spot, and the Gamecocks easily covered in College Station. Auburn was the SEC media's pick to win the conference but enters this game just 4-4, trying to make a bowl. Gus Malzahn's offense has been improving weekly as it averaged just 344 yards per game the first five games but 428 the last three. Texas A&M is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC games and 67 percent completions. Auburn got back defensive end Carl Lawson last week and is playing with legitimate revenge. Last year, A&M came into Auburn a 23-point underdog and won outright. The visitor has won outright in all three SEC meetings.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Texas A&M 37, Auburn 34
[h=2]No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5) vs. No. 14Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]3:30 PM ET, FOX
TCU has struggled on the road this season, winning by six over Minnesota, three over Texas Tech and seven at Kansas State. Oklahoma State is stronger than all three of those teams and is 42-9 straight-up at home over the last eight seasons. The Cowboys won for me on the road last week at Texas Tech, but this is their toughest test of the year so far. I listed four legitimate contenders in the Big 12 this year in my magazine: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They are the clear top four, but Oklahoma State has not been as strong as I expected and have had their share of close calls. These two have faced four mutual opponents and TCU is plus-188 yards per game in those with the Cowboys just plus-45 yards per game. The clincher is TCU's defense was very banged up at the start of the year and had to play a bunch of inexperienced players. Patterson says they are improving weekly and last week held West Virginia, which came in averaging 486 yards per game, to just 327 yards.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 42, Oklahoma State 35
[h=2]Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) at No. 21Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Noon ET, ESPNU
These teams mirror each other. Both are 6-2, have great defenses and are just average on offense. Northwestern running back Justin Jackson has rushed for 731 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and Penn State's top running back (Saquon Barkley) has rushed for 716, but 6.6 YPC. Penn State has defensive end Carl Nassib and potential high-draft pick Austin Johnson at defensive tackle. The Nittany Lions also have a large edge at quarterback with potential first-round pick Christian Hackenberg having a 12-0 TD-INT ratio his last six games versus redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson. While the Wildcats are off a bye, they have lost their last eight in that situation. Northwestern also is off a misleading final, where at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit versus Nebraska but somehow led the game 14-6 and went on to win. Penn State is plus-76 yards per game in Big Ten play and Northwestern is minus-102.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Northwestern 13
[h=2]Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-23)[/h]8 PM ET, ESPN
Last week, I had Minnesota plus the points over Michigan in this column. It was an emotional week for the Gophers, as Jerry Kill stepped down and they gave it everything they had. They had a 461-296 yard edge but got stopped at the goal line at the end in a 3-point loss. Last year, fans were streaming out of TCF Bank Stadium with Ohio State up 31-14 in the fourth quarter, but two fumbles had the game in doubt at the end with the Buckeyes clinging to a 7-point win. This year, Ohio State is off a bye and has just played its best six quarters of the year, crushing Penn State and Rutgers. I would much rather have J.T. Barrett at quarterback, but Cardale Jones has been the starter in all but one game, and the Buckeyes only have Illinois on deck. Minnesota already lost to Northwestern by 27 and Nebraska by 23. Ohio State is clearly superior to those two teams.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 7
[h=2]Iowa State Cyclones at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-25.5)[/h]7 PM ET, ESPNU
My computer says the Sooners are the third-best team in the country, with both their offense and defense in the top seven. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and they have rushed for 301 yards per game and thrown for 331 YPG the last two. Their defense is holding opponents to 111 yards below their season average. Iowa State is off its big shutout win over Texas at home and now must travel. Oklahoma went into Ames last year and won 59-14, but now get the Cyclones at home. Iowa State has had two Big 12 road games and trailed Texas Tech 66-24 in the fourth quarter and Baylor 35-0 at the half in a downpour. The forecast here is sunny and 62 degrees. Even with Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State on deck, the Sooners will keep it rolling here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 44, Iowa State 10
[h=2]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 10 Florida Gators (-20.5)[/h]Noon ET, ESPN
Jim McElwain is on my short list for coach of the year. Florida has a dominating defense that holds opponents to 127 yards below their season average. Vanderbilt was just shut out by Houston, 34-0, and averages only 11.2 points per game versus FBS foes. This is a sandwich game for Florida off their big tilt against Georgia and with South Carolina on deck. Vanderbilt also has a defense allowing just 324 yards per game. Bottom line is my computer is calling for a shutout, and Florida lost to Vanderbilt two years ago here in the Swamp, so the Gators will be ready.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 3
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[/h][h=2]No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (+12.5) at No. 1 Clemson Tigers[/h]3:30 PM ET, ABC
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</article>I have been very impressed with Clemson on both sides of the ball, and I am not surprised the Tigers are No. 1 with the playoff committee. I also like what I have seen from Florida State this year with only a fluke loss to Georgia Tech marring its record. The Seminoles have only been an underdog twice in this series in over 35 years and both times they pulled the outright upset, but Florida State has never been a double-digit 'dog under Jimbo Fisher. My computer agrees with Las Vegas and has Clemson winning by 15. This game should go down to the wire, and while I will call for Clemson to escape with the straight-up win, I will also take the generous points with a very dangerous 'dog.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 27
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 72-18 (80 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 48-40-2 against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning. Rankings from latest College Football Playoff standings.
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (+8.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Noon ET, ESPN2
North Carolina is much more efficient on offense this year. In 2014, the Tar Heels were No. 18 in plays run with 77.3 per game and No. 66 in yards per play (5.6). This year, they are only at No. 123 in plays run (62.9) but third in yards per play, improving to 7.5. Duke made a miracle comeback last week trailing by 12 with 3 minutes, 30 seconds to go, but <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">had it undone by the miracle lateral kickoff return. Last year, Duke was upset at home by North Carolina and that loss kept them out of the ACC title game so the Blue Devils are playing with legitimate revenge. This is a rivalry game, and each of the last three meetings has been an outright upset. Duke is outgaining its foes by 126 yards per game and the Tar Heels by 112. The clincher for me is that Duke is not only 8-1 ATS in its last nine regular season games when installed as a 'dog, but is 8-1 straight up in those.</offer>
ATS pick: Duke
Score: North Carolina 28, Duke 27
[h=2]No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8) atPittsburgh Panthers[/h]Noon ET, ABC
Last week, Notre Dame got to the Temple 14-yard line or inside three times and ended those drives with two turnovers and a short field goal. One of the drives was 14 plays, and another was 15. That inability to finish drives gives us some line value here. The defenses are close, but the Irish have a large edge on offense, averaging 496 yards per game and gaining 129 yards more than their opponents allow. Pitt averages 365 yards per game and gains 13 yards less per game than their opponents normally allow. I think the Irish cover this one.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, Pitt 20
[h=2]No. 2 LSU Tigers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5)[/h]8 PM ET, CBS
All summer long on my radio show circuit, I said that LSU was my No. 2 surprise team (non-top 10 team that could win it all) in the country. Despite all the talk being about Alabama and Auburn, I said this game would resemble those game of the century matchups from 2011 and 2012 when both were in the top five when they met. This week, it's finally arrived. Both teams have great RBs, withLeonard Fournette having a slight edge on Derrick Henry. Both have top-notch defenses, but Bama is holding opponents to 172 yards below their season average and LSU at 102 yards below. Those other two top-five matchups were decided by just three and four points. I could make a great case for LSU, but my computer says Alabama by 10, and I agree. I will give a lean to the home team.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, LSU 20
[h=2]Auburn Tigers (+7.5) at No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Noon ET, SEC
Last week, I used South Carolina in this spot, and the Gamecocks easily covered in College Station. Auburn was the SEC media's pick to win the conference but enters this game just 4-4, trying to make a bowl. Gus Malzahn's offense has been improving weekly as it averaged just 344 yards per game the first five games but 428 the last three. Texas A&M is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC games and 67 percent completions. Auburn got back defensive end Carl Lawson last week and is playing with legitimate revenge. Last year, A&M came into Auburn a 23-point underdog and won outright. The visitor has won outright in all three SEC meetings.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Texas A&M 37, Auburn 34
[h=2]No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5) vs. No. 14Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]3:30 PM ET, FOX
TCU has struggled on the road this season, winning by six over Minnesota, three over Texas Tech and seven at Kansas State. Oklahoma State is stronger than all three of those teams and is 42-9 straight-up at home over the last eight seasons. The Cowboys won for me on the road last week at Texas Tech, but this is their toughest test of the year so far. I listed four legitimate contenders in the Big 12 this year in my magazine: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They are the clear top four, but Oklahoma State has not been as strong as I expected and have had their share of close calls. These two have faced four mutual opponents and TCU is plus-188 yards per game in those with the Cowboys just plus-45 yards per game. The clincher is TCU's defense was very banged up at the start of the year and had to play a bunch of inexperienced players. Patterson says they are improving weekly and last week held West Virginia, which came in averaging 486 yards per game, to just 327 yards.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 42, Oklahoma State 35
[h=2]Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) at No. 21Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Noon ET, ESPNU
These teams mirror each other. Both are 6-2, have great defenses and are just average on offense. Northwestern running back Justin Jackson has rushed for 731 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and Penn State's top running back (Saquon Barkley) has rushed for 716, but 6.6 YPC. Penn State has defensive end Carl Nassib and potential high-draft pick Austin Johnson at defensive tackle. The Nittany Lions also have a large edge at quarterback with potential first-round pick Christian Hackenberg having a 12-0 TD-INT ratio his last six games versus redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson. While the Wildcats are off a bye, they have lost their last eight in that situation. Northwestern also is off a misleading final, where at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit versus Nebraska but somehow led the game 14-6 and went on to win. Penn State is plus-76 yards per game in Big Ten play and Northwestern is minus-102.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Northwestern 13
[h=2]Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-23)[/h]8 PM ET, ESPN
Last week, I had Minnesota plus the points over Michigan in this column. It was an emotional week for the Gophers, as Jerry Kill stepped down and they gave it everything they had. They had a 461-296 yard edge but got stopped at the goal line at the end in a 3-point loss. Last year, fans were streaming out of TCF Bank Stadium with Ohio State up 31-14 in the fourth quarter, but two fumbles had the game in doubt at the end with the Buckeyes clinging to a 7-point win. This year, Ohio State is off a bye and has just played its best six quarters of the year, crushing Penn State and Rutgers. I would much rather have J.T. Barrett at quarterback, but Cardale Jones has been the starter in all but one game, and the Buckeyes only have Illinois on deck. Minnesota already lost to Northwestern by 27 and Nebraska by 23. Ohio State is clearly superior to those two teams.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 7
[h=2]Iowa State Cyclones at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-25.5)[/h]7 PM ET, ESPNU
My computer says the Sooners are the third-best team in the country, with both their offense and defense in the top seven. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator and they have rushed for 301 yards per game and thrown for 331 YPG the last two. Their defense is holding opponents to 111 yards below their season average. Iowa State is off its big shutout win over Texas at home and now must travel. Oklahoma went into Ames last year and won 59-14, but now get the Cyclones at home. Iowa State has had two Big 12 road games and trailed Texas Tech 66-24 in the fourth quarter and Baylor 35-0 at the half in a downpour. The forecast here is sunny and 62 degrees. Even with Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State on deck, the Sooners will keep it rolling here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 44, Iowa State 10
[h=2]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 10 Florida Gators (-20.5)[/h]Noon ET, ESPN
Jim McElwain is on my short list for coach of the year. Florida has a dominating defense that holds opponents to 127 yards below their season average. Vanderbilt was just shut out by Houston, 34-0, and averages only 11.2 points per game versus FBS foes. This is a sandwich game for Florida off their big tilt against Georgia and with South Carolina on deck. Vanderbilt also has a defense allowing just 324 yards per game. Bottom line is my computer is calling for a shutout, and Florida lost to Vanderbilt two years ago here in the Swamp, so the Gators will be ready.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 3
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</article>I have been very impressed with Clemson on both sides of the ball, and I am not surprised the Tigers are No. 1 with the playoff committee. I also like what I have seen from Florida State this year with only a fluke loss to Georgia Tech marring its record. The Seminoles have only been an underdog twice in this series in over 35 years and both times they pulled the outright upset, but Florida State has never been a double-digit 'dog under Jimbo Fisher. My computer agrees with Las Vegas and has Clemson winning by 15. This game should go down to the wire, and while I will call for Clemson to escape with the straight-up win, I will also take the generous points with a very dangerous 'dog.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Clemson 31, Florida State 27
