[h=1]Midseason NFL betting review of all 32 teams[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the NFL season at its midway point, Dave Tuley, Chalk's NFL handicapper, took a look at all 32 teams. What did we expect from them in the preseason? Which teams have disappointed? Which teams already have lost their season win totals? It's all here in Chalk's comprehensive midseason NFL betting review.
[h=2]AFC East[/h]
[h=2]New England Patriots[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 8-1; now 9-5
Vegas Rankings: Opened 2nd; now 1st
Season win total: 10.5; current wins: 8
ATS record: 5-1-2; over/unders: 4-4
What we thought before the season: When Tom Brady's four-game suspension was overturned right before the season, everyone was prepared to see an "us against the world" campaign from the defending Super Bowl champs.
What we've learned: The Patriots have dominated even more than expected, starting 8-0 and 5-1-2 against the spread (ATS). <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">There were concerns about losing key defenders such as Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Vince Wilfork, but Bill Belichick still has the defense ranked No. 8 in yards allowed per game, and any deficiencies have been made up by the offense, which can outscore anyone. Oddsmakers have caught up with the Patriots on over/unders, but expect them to really start inflating their point spreads to make those looking to bet them blindly every week pay a premium.</offer>
[h=2]New York Jets[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 100-1; now 60-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-23rd; now T-10th
Season win total: 7.5; current wins: 5
ATS record: 4-3-1; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: There were high hopes for the defense with Todd Bowles taking over as head coach and Revis and Antonio Cromartiereturning to New York. The big question on offense was how the team would react to Ryan Fitzpatrick filling in at quarterback for Geno Smith, who was hurt in a locker-room incident.
What we've learned: The defense, ranked No. 4 at 323.2 yards per game, keeps the Jets in every game. Fitzpatrick has filled in just fine and has also teamed well with WR Brandon Marshall to make the passing game more potent. Add the inside running of Chris Ivory, and the offense is ranked No. 11 at 365.9 yards per game. If the playoffs were to start today, the Jets would be the AFC's No. 1 wild-card team. With no glaring holes on either side of the ball, they should be competitive down the stretch.
[h=2]Buffalo Bills[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-13th; now T-16th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 4
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: Rex Ryan's arrival in Buffalo had a lot of people optimistic, especially with the Bills already having an established defense. LeSean McCoy was expected to carry the load on offense. The big question was how Tyrod Taylor would fare at QB after beating out Matt Casseland EJ Manuel.
What we've learned: McCoy has been so-so (416 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 2 TDs), but Karlos Williams (336 yards, 6.6 yards per carry, 5 TDs) has helped round out the running game. After a 3-2 start, Taylor missed two games with an MCL injury -- the Bills lost both games -- but he and WR Sammy Watkinsreturned in a Week 9 win against Miami, with Taylor going 11-for-12 for 181 yards and a touchdown. The defense hasn't been as strong as expected, and the Bills might continue to be a strong over team; they're 5-3 with the over, including three in a row.
[h=2]Miami Dolphins[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 20-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-8th; now T-18th
Season win total: 9; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The addition of Ndamukong Suh to an already solid defense and the continuing development of QB Ryan Tannehill had Miami as a darkhorse playoff contender.
What we've learned: The Dolphins started 1-3, and coach Joe Philbin was fired during the team's bye week after a Week 4 trip to London. Miami won its first two games convincingly under interim coach Dan Campbell, against Tennessee and Houston, but then were routed by New England and Buffalo the last two weeks. The Dolphins will probably continue to do well against the dregs of the league, but they can't match up with elite teams.
[h=2]AFC North[/h]
[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 10-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 10th; now 10th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 8
ATS record: 7-0-1; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The Bengals were expected to be a pretty solid team, but the biggest obstacle was playing in a tough division.
What we've learned: They've exceeded any and all expectations at 8-0 and are No. 6 on offense and No. 12 on defense. As bettors are getting on the bandwagon, oddsmakers are sure to inflate their point spreads. Of course, the big question for most people is: Can the Bengals carry their success to the postseason for once?
[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 20-1; now 30-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-13th; now T-14th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 5 (9 games)
ATS record: 4-3-2; over/unders: 2-7
What we thought before the season: The Steelers were expected to have one of the most explosive offenses in the league -- at least once Le'Veon Bell andMartavis Bryant returned from their two- and four-game suspensions, respectively. The defense was expected to go through a rebuilding process, with several veterans retiring and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau leaving.
What we've learned: Bell and Bryant returned, but Ben Roethlisbergermissed four games with a knee injury. The Steelers overcame that by going 2-2, and Big Ben returned in Week 8, but now Roethlisberger could be out a few more weeks with a mid-foot sprain suffered in Sunday's win over Oakland. With not much expected from the defense, and with the injury carousel on offense, Pittsburgh has turned into an under team. The Steelers still have the potential to make some noise come playoff time -- that is, assuming they can hold onto a wild-card spot
[h=2]Baltimore Ravens[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 16-1; now 500-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-8th; now T-20th
Season win total: 9; current wins: 2
ATS record: 1-6-1; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: In the tough AFC North, Baltimore had the highest over/under season win total at 9. The Ravens, while not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past, were expected to be right in the mix for the division title and a potential Super Bowl longshot.
What we've learned: No team has underachieved as much as the Ravens, who would need to go 8-0 the rest of the way to top their over/under win total. They're also 1-6-1 ATS. However, they clearly have more talent than their SU and ATS records indicate. They've been in most games, only to fall short in the end. With people dismissing them, the Ravens could be live underdogs many times the rest of the season.
[h=2]Cleveland Browns[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 100-1; now 2000-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 27th; now T-27th
Season win total: 6.5; current wins: 2 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; over/unders: 7-2
What we thought before the season: Cleveland was 7-9 last year, but that was with Brian Hoyer under center. The Browns entered this year with their annual quarterback controversy, and Josh McCown won the job despite many people clamoring for Johnny Manziel to be given a shot.
What we've learned: McCown has had some good statistical games, but the Browns are still 27th in total offense, and wins have been harder to come by; they have two, including one in Manziel's first start. Low expectations combined with the team's 29th-ranked defense have helped over bettors go 7-2, and that's likely to continue.
[h=2]AFC South[/h]
[h=2]Indianapolis Colts[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 8-1; now 25-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 5th; now T-10th
Season win total: 10.5; current wins: 4 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; over/unders: 5-4
What we thought before the season: The Colts added Frank Gore andAndre Johnson to an already potent offense, and Andrew Luck was expected to, well, still be Andrew Luck. Oh, and they were expected to run away with the AFC South.
What we've learned: Luck has underachieved and, at times, looked putrid. Indianapolis is still in first place, but mostly because the rest of the division has been worse. The Colts showed their potential with a 27-24 upset of the previously undefeated Broncos on Sunday; however, it was announced Tuesday that Luck will be sidelined with a lacerated kidney. The Colts did step up to beat Houston in Week 8 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, so they could be a bet-on team if their lines get overadjusted by oddsmakers or the betting public.
[h=2]Houston Texans[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 60-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-13th; now 24th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 5-2-1
What we thought before the season: Hoyer and Ryan Mallett battled for the starting quarterback job. The hope was that the defense, led by the all-worldJ.J. Watt could allow the offense to be led by a game-manager QB. The hope was also that Arian Foster would run wild after missing the first few games.
What we've learned: Houston squandered a huge opportunity to take control of the AFC South race when it hosted Indianapolis, which was without Luck because of an injury, in Week 5's Thursday night game. The defense hasn't lived up to expectations, though it's not terrible at No. 14 in yards allowed per game. Foster did return but then suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 7. The Texans will probably continue to be playable against weak teams, but it's hard to trust them against better teams. Their offense ranks 31st with 5.0 yards per play and now has only one playmaker in DeAndre Hopkins.
[h=2]Tennessee Titans[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 200-1; now 200-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 32nd; now T-27th
Season win total: 5.5; current wins: 2
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The Titans used the No. 2 pick in the draft to take QB Marcus Mariota, and the expectation was that they were going to build slowly around him -- so expectations weren't very high at all.
What we've learned: Mariota and Tennessee started impressively, upsetting Tampa Bay and No. 1 pick Jameis Winston as a 3-point underdog, but that was short-lived. The Titans lost their next six games, and head coach Ken Whisenhunt lost his job. They won their first game under interim coach Mike Mularkey as 6.5-point road underdogs at New Orleans and are now a respectable 4-4 ATS despite their 2-6 SU record. The fear is that the resurgence could be short-lived, similar to the Dolphins, who won two straight after firing Philbin and now have lost two straight. But the Titans' defense is No. 6 with just 329 yards allowed per game and gives hope that the team can be more competitive in the second half.
[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 300-1; now 200-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 30th; now T-27th
Season win total: 5.5; current wins: 2
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 6-2
What we thought before the season: As usual, expectations were low for Jacksonville, though the hope was that Blake Bortles would continue to show improvement. The Jaguars' big offseason acquisition was TE Julius Thomas, but he started the season on the sideline.
What we've learned: Thomas made his Jacksonville debut in Week 5, but he has only 13 catches in four games and is averaging 8.9 yards per reception with one touchdown. It's evident he's not as effective with Bortles targeting him as he was with Peyton Manning. Similar to the Titans, the Jaguars are a respectable 4-4 ATS and have been competitive at times. That's thanks to the offense and defense being middle-of-the-road, ranked No. 16 and No. 18, respectively, in yards per game. They're certainly playable in spots and could continue their success with overs if the offense continues to improve.
[h=2]AFC West[/h]
[h=2]Denver Broncos[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 9-1; now 8-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-3rd; now T-2nd
Season win total: 10; current wins: 7
ATS record: 5-3; over/unders: 3-4-1
What we thought before the season: With Manning in the twilight of his Hall of Fame career, it was expected that the Broncos would rely more on the running game with Gary Kubiak taking over for John Fox as head coach. The defense was expected to be outstanding and take a lot of pressure off Manning.
What we've learned: The defense, ranked No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (274.1) and per play (4.2), has been even better than advertised and has bailed out the offense time and time again, including pick-sixes to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Manning and the offense showed life in a 29-10 rout of the Packers in Week 8, but overall the Broncos are lucky to be 5-3 ATS. I would expect them to have a losing ATS record in the second half as bettors continue to back them like they did before their 27-24 loss at Indianapolis in Week 9.
[h=2]Oakland Raiders[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 100-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-28th; now T-18th
Season win total: 5.5; current wins: 4
ATS record: 5-3; over/unders: 6-2
What we thought before the season: Rookie WR Amari Cooper came into the league with a lot of hype and looked in sync with QB Derek Carr in the preseason. The hopes weren't as high for the defense, and Oakland was seen as a good over team.
What we've learned: The Raiders have lived up to their expectations. They're 6-2 with the over so far, Cooper has been as good as advertised and the offense has also gotten a boost from RB Latavius Murray, who is having a breakout season. The defense has stepped up on occasion, especially the ageless Charles Woodson, but it is still ranked No. 30 in total defense, so the overs should continue. The Raiders should also be considered live underdogs, especially when facing mediocre defenses.
[h=2]Kansas City Chiefs[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 30-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-11th; now T-16th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: Coach Andy Reid brought WR Jeremy Maclin over from Philadelphia to try to upgrade a WR corps that didn't have a touchdown catch last season. With an over/under of 8.5 wins, the Chiefs weren't expected to challenge the Broncos for the AFC West title, but a wild-card berth looked possible.
What we've learned: Maclin ended Kansas City's wide receiver TD drought, but not until Week 4. Travis Kelce started the season as Alex Smith's top target, with two TDs in a Week 1 win over Houston, and has been a consistent threat. The offense suffered a major blow when RB Jamaal Charles went down in Week 5. The defense is ranked No. 17 but has held opponents under 20 points in each of the last four games, so I'm looking for the Chiefs to be more of an under team in the second half.
[h=2]San Diego Chargers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 1000-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-20th; now T-25th
Season win total: 8; current wins: 2 (9 games)
ATS record: 3-6; over/unders: 4-4-1
What we thought before the season: Philip Rivers is a proven commodity, so the big question was if rookie RB Melvin Gordon could take some pressure off him and bring balance to the offense.
What we've learned: Gordon's stats have disappointed so far (just 413 yards rushing in nine games, 3.6 YPC, no TDs, four fumbles), but it hasn't all been his fault. The offensive line hasn't opened holes for him, and with the Chargers often falling behind, Rivers has been forced to drop back to pass more. They failed as 4-point home favorites in Week 9 against the Bears, but I would look to play the Chargers as underdogs with a great chance at backdoor covers. I certainly wouldn't trust them as favorites.
[h=2]NFC East[/h]
[h=2]New York Giants[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 60-1; now 20-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 22nd; now T-10th
Season win total: 8; current wins: 5 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 5-3-1; over/unders: 5-3-1
What we thought before the season: The Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era has been Super Bowl(s) or bust, so everyone was wondering if they had one more magic run in them. We also didn't know if/when we'd see Jason Pierre-Paul after he injured his hand in a fireworks accident.
What we've learned: The Giants blew leads in their first two games but have rebounded to lead the NFC East at 5-4, though the Eagles, who won the first meeting, are 4-4. The defense has been a major disappointment, ranking last in the league with 422.8 yards allowed per game. The offense has struggled at times, and it hasn't helped that Victor Cruz hasn't made it on the field yet. Otherwise New York would be even better than 5-3-1 with the over. JPP returned in Week 9, and the Giants allowed under 20 points for just the second time this season, albeit against the Buccaneers. I'd look for the Giants to continue being an over team, and with no lead safe, I'd fade them when laying too many points.
[h=2]Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 8-1; now 20-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 7th; now 8th
Season win total: 10; current wins: 4
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 2-6
What we thought before the season: Chip Kelly made a lot of changes, trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford and sending McCoy to Buffalo before signing DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. The Eagles were still expected to have a high-flying offense and were the favorites to win the NFC East.
What we've learned: Murray started incredibly slow, there have been injuries along the offensive line and the Eagles haven't been as explosive as expected. Bradford hasn't been as accurate as expected, though the offense is still No. 10 at 366.4 yards per game. The Eagles have been a great under team, starting 4-0 as oddsmakers shaded their totals high and sitting at 6-2 at midseason. The Eagles came out of their bye and scored 33 points at Dallas on Sunday night, and I'm expecting them to be more of an over team the rest of the way.
[h=2]Washington Redskins[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 100-1; now 200-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-28th; now 26th
Season win total: 6; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 3-5
What we thought before the season: The Robert Griffin III-Kirk Cousinsquarterback controversy seemed to split the team, and the Redskins went into the season with Cousins as the starter. The defense was thought to have significant holes.
What we've learned: The defense actually played great the first two weeks, shutting down Miami in a game the Redskins should have won and then St. Louis, but it's been sieve-like since then. It is now 21st in yards allowed per game and has allowed at least 20 points in each of the last six games. Except for the game against Tampa, in which the Redskins rallied from a 24-point deficit -- and think how badly they must have been playing to be down by 24 to the Bucs -- the offense has struggled and is 29th in total offense. I would look to fade the Skins, though they probably won't be favored the rest of the season. It's hard to trust the offense for an over and hard to trust the defense for an under.
[h=2]Dallas Cowboys[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 14-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 6th; now T-20th
Season win total: 9.5; current wins: 2
ATS record: 2-6; over/unders: 3-4-1
What we thought before the season: Coming off a 12-4 season, there were high hopes in Dallas with a defense that would only get better after Greg Hardyand Rolando McClain returned from their suspensions. The offense lost DeMarco Murray, but the line was expected to be able to open holes for whoever replaced him.
What we've learned: The Cowboys got off to a great start, rallying to beat the Giants 27-26 in Week 1 and then beating down the Eagles 20-10 in Week 2. The win over Philly was costly, however, with Tony Romo suffering a collarbone injury, and the Cowboys haven't won since. Even though they're only 2-6 ATS, they've been close in a lot of their games. That includes overtime losses against the Saints and Eagles in which they were getting +3 both times and didn't even get a push, plus a 13-12 loss to the Seahawks. I believe they'll do better ATS moving forward, even before Romo returns.
[h=2]NFC North[/h]
[h=2]Green Bay Packers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 6-1; now 7-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-3rd; now T-6th
Season win total: 11; current wins: 6
ATS record: 5-3; over/unders: 3-5
What we thought before the season: With many considering Aaron Rodgers the best QB in the game, the Packers were expected to challenge the Seahawks again as the top team in the NFC, and they were certainly expected to run away with the NFC North. This was tempered a bit when WR Jordy Nelsonwent down with a season-ending injury in preseason, but expectations were still high.
What we've learned: Green Bay lived up to the hype with a 6-0 start and covering its first five games, though none was by more than a touchdown over the spread. The Packers, who are surprisingly only No. 24 in yards per game, have lost two straight, albeit to the Broncos, who were undefeated at the time, and the Panthers, are still are undefeated. The public will still love to bet them, so I'm sure we'll find spots to fade them down the stretch.
[h=2]Minnesota Vikings[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 18-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 19th; now 9th
Season win total: 8; current wins: 6
ATS record: 7-1; over/unders: 1-5-2
What we thought before the season: A lot of wiseguys were touting Minnesota as a darkhorse team with the return of RB Adrian Peterson, QBTeddy Bridgewater's emergence in the second half last season and a Mike Zimmer-led defense with more pieces in place.
What we've learned: It didn't start so well, with the Vikings losing 20-3 at San Francisco in the season opener. However, they covered the spread in their next seven games, and their only straight-up loss was 23-20 at Denver in Week 4, when they were 7-point road underdogs. The offense is actually only No. 30 in yards per game, but the defense has stepped up at No. 7, and the Vikes are tied for allowing a league-low 17.5 point per game; the Broncos are the only team to score more than 20 points on them. The under is 5-1-2, and I look for that to continue.
[h=2]Chicago Bears[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 80-1; now 500-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 26th; now 23rd
Season win total: 6.5; current wins: 3
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 3-5
What we thought before the season: Brandon Marshall left for New York, and his replacement, first-round pick Kevin White, had shin surgery and hasn't played. But the biggest problems for the Bears looked like they would be on defense, which was No. 30 in yards allowed last year.
What we've learned: The defense has actually overachieved this year, ranking No. 9 in yards allowed, but the offense hasn't always been able to capitalize, except for the Bears' wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers. Too bad they're not in the AFC West. They do tend to take every game down to the final gun, as they did in their 22-19 win at San Diego on Monday night, and they should be better against the spread down the stretch.
[h=2]Detroit Lions[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 30-1; now 2,000-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-11th; now T-27th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 1
ATS record: 1-7; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The Lions looked like they learned how to pull out close games last year and nearly beat the Cowboys in the playoffs, who nearly beat the Packers, who nearly beat the Seahawks, who nearly beat the Patriots. It seemed like they weren't that far from being a Super Bowl contender, despite losing Ndamukong Suh to Miami and Nick Fairley to St. Louis.
What we've learned: It hasn't worked out as well as planned for the Lions. They lost their first five games and are 1-7 SU and ATS at the halfway point, and most of Detroit's losses haven't even been close. If anything, I'd look to play more overs in Lions games as they mostly play out the string on a disappointing season.
[h=2]NFC South[/h]
[h=2]Carolina Panthers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 60-1; now 7-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-23rd; now T-6th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 8
ATS record: 6-2; Over/unders 5-2-1
What we thought before the season: Carolina was the defending NFC South champion at only 7-8-1 and wasn't expected to be much better this year with an over/under win total of 8.5 (same as Atlanta and New Orleans). When the Panthers' top weapon, WR Kelvin Benjamin, went down in the preseason, most people discounted their chances further.
What we've learned: The Panthers started strong, albeit against a soft early schedule, but have beaten the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers their past four games and are the only undefeated team in the NFC, with a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Cam Newton also has impressed by spreading the ball around and coming through with late scoring drives. However, one has to think their run has to stop sometime, especially against the spread. I'd also expect their over tendency (5-2-1) also will reverse.
[h=2]Atlanta Falcons[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 40-1; now 30-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-20th; now T-14th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 6 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; Over/unders 2-7
What we thought before the season: We knew the offense would be potent as long as Matt Ryan's receivers stayed healthy. The defense also was expected to improve under new head coach Dan Quinn, former defensive coordinator in Seattle.
What we've learned: The Falcons flew out of the gate, winning their first five games while the Matt Ryan-to-Julio Jones combo looked unstoppable. Devonta Freeman also took over the RB duties and became another fantasy superstar. The undefeated run stopped in Week 6 at New Orleans, then the Falcons barely beat the Titans 10-7 and now have lost two straight to the Buccaneers and 49ers, which was disappointing for fans and backers as this was seen as a soft stretch in their schedule. With some tough games coming, including two against Carolina, I'll be against the Falcons more than on them (plus they should continue to have more unders than overs, though probably not at the current 7-2 pace).
[h=2]New Orleans Saints[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 30-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-13th; now T-20th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 4 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-4-1; Over/unders 5-4
What we thought before the season: New Orleans traded away Drew Brees' favorite target, Jimmy Graham, but the offense was still expected to be explosive with the defense showing improvement over last year.
What we've learned: Brees is putting up great numbers and the offense is No. 1 in yards per game; however, the defense is as weak as ever, ranking No. 31 in yards allowed. After an 0-3 start, wins over the Cowboys, Falcons, Colts and Giants made it look like the Saints were back, but then they lost to the Titans 34-28 this past Sunday. They have gone over (way over) their past two games and I'm going to ride that until oddsmakers catch up.
[h=2]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 100-1; now 500-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 31th; now T-27th
Season win total: 6; current wins: 3
ATS record: 4-4; Over/unders 5-3
What we thought before the season: When a team has the No. 1 draft pick, it usually means they have a lot more holes than the top pick can solve. Jameis Winston was being thrown right into the fire, so we expected some rookie mistakes.
What we've learned: Winston threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass and the Bucs were blown out by the Titans 42-14 in the opener, but Winston has actually played better than expected for the most part. Despite mediocre offensive and defensive stats, he has led upsets of the Saints and Falcons as well as beating the Jaguars as a favorite. I can almost guarantee I'll be on the Bucs when they play the Saints and Falcons again, as well as when they're big underdogs.
[h=2]NFC West[/h]
[h=2]Arizona Cardinals[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 30-1; now 10-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-13th; now 4th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 6
ATS record: 5-3; Over/unders 6-2
What we thought before the season: The return of Carson Palmer, after the team fell apart last year after he was injured, created optimism in the desert. The Cardinals lost defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to the Jets, but the defense was expected to be strong again.
What we've learned: The defense is No. 3 in total defense and one of the best ball-hawking units in the league, but it's the offense that has really impressed as it is also ranked No. 3 with Palmer spreading the ball around to a talented corps of receivers and Chris Johnson reviving his career after replacing the injuredAndre Ellington. Arizona has been good to bettors, including over bettors. It's going to keep getting harder for the Cards to cover with the books inflating their lines because so many bettors are on their bandwagon. I would look for spots to fade them in the second half.
[h=2]Seattle Seahawks[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 9-2; now 12-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 1st; now 5th
Season win total: 11; current wins: 4
ATS record: 2-5-1; Over/unders 3-5
What we thought before the season: With back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, the best defense in the league and adding Graham on offense, the Seahawks looked primed to make another run.
What we've learned: The Super Bowl hangover (where the SB loser often underachieves the next season) hit the Seahawks as they lost their first two games to the Rams and Packers. They've rebounded to get back in the wild-card race (and a shot to catch Arizona in the division if the Cardinals fall apart like they did last year), but are still a money-burning 2-5-1 ATS. Seattle won its last two games before its bye over San Francisco and Dallas, though the 13-12 win over the Cowboys didn't cover. I'll probably keep fading the Seahawks, starting with the Cardinals +3 in Week 10.
[h=2]St. Louis Rams[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 60-1; now 30-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 18th; now T-10th
Season win total: 7.5; current wins: 4
ATS record: 4-4; Over/unders 2-6
What we thought before the season: St. Louis traded Sam Bradford to Philadelphia for Nick Foles, so everyone was waiting to see how that swap worked out. First-round choice Todd Gurley was taken with the knowledge that he would miss the start of the season but would hopefully be worth the wait.
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</article>What we've learned: The Rams started the season by upsetting the Seahawks, but then lost to the Redskins and Steelers. Gurley made his debut in that Steelers game, then had 100-yard games in his first four starts and the Rams went 3-1. They came up short in Week 9 against Minnesota to fall back to .500 both SU and ATS. St. Louis is 6-2 with the under, and with a defense that is No. 5 in yards allowed per game and a reliance on the running game (though Gurley can score from anywhere), I expect the unders to continue. Jeff Fisher is also the best underdog coach out there, so I'll be looking to back the Rams in that role.
[h=2]San Francisco 49ers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened season 100-1; now 1,000-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 25th; now 32nd
Season win total: 6.5; current wins: 3 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; Over/unders 4-5
What we thought before the season: The wheels fell off last year, and then coach Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan, plus Frank Gore and Michael Crabtreeleft via free agency and a number of defensive players retired. Many people were expecting the 49ers to be the worst team in the league.
What we've learned: San Francisco's upset of Minnesota in Week 1 was shocking, but the 49ers have mostly played down to expectations, though the cupboard wasn't totally bare and they also have pulled upsets against the Ravens and Falcons. The offense is averaging an NFL-worst 286.2 yards per game and the defense is ranked No. 27, so there's not too much hope. All three of their wins have been at home, though, so I'll keep an eye out for them as home underdogs; otherwise I'll mostly pass on their games.
ESPN INSIDER
With the NFL season at its midway point, Dave Tuley, Chalk's NFL handicapper, took a look at all 32 teams. What did we expect from them in the preseason? Which teams have disappointed? Which teams already have lost their season win totals? It's all here in Chalk's comprehensive midseason NFL betting review.
[h=2]AFC East[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened 2nd; now 1st
Season win total: 10.5; current wins: 8
ATS record: 5-1-2; over/unders: 4-4
What we thought before the season: When Tom Brady's four-game suspension was overturned right before the season, everyone was prepared to see an "us against the world" campaign from the defending Super Bowl champs.
What we've learned: The Patriots have dominated even more than expected, starting 8-0 and 5-1-2 against the spread (ATS). <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">There were concerns about losing key defenders such as Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Vince Wilfork, but Bill Belichick still has the defense ranked No. 8 in yards allowed per game, and any deficiencies have been made up by the offense, which can outscore anyone. Oddsmakers have caught up with the Patriots on over/unders, but expect them to really start inflating their point spreads to make those looking to bet them blindly every week pay a premium.</offer>
[h=2]New York Jets[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 100-1; now 60-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-23rd; now T-10th
Season win total: 7.5; current wins: 5
ATS record: 4-3-1; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: There were high hopes for the defense with Todd Bowles taking over as head coach and Revis and Antonio Cromartiereturning to New York. The big question on offense was how the team would react to Ryan Fitzpatrick filling in at quarterback for Geno Smith, who was hurt in a locker-room incident.
What we've learned: The defense, ranked No. 4 at 323.2 yards per game, keeps the Jets in every game. Fitzpatrick has filled in just fine and has also teamed well with WR Brandon Marshall to make the passing game more potent. Add the inside running of Chris Ivory, and the offense is ranked No. 11 at 365.9 yards per game. If the playoffs were to start today, the Jets would be the AFC's No. 1 wild-card team. With no glaring holes on either side of the ball, they should be competitive down the stretch.
[h=2]Buffalo Bills[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-13th; now T-16th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 4
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: Rex Ryan's arrival in Buffalo had a lot of people optimistic, especially with the Bills already having an established defense. LeSean McCoy was expected to carry the load on offense. The big question was how Tyrod Taylor would fare at QB after beating out Matt Casseland EJ Manuel.
What we've learned: McCoy has been so-so (416 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 2 TDs), but Karlos Williams (336 yards, 6.6 yards per carry, 5 TDs) has helped round out the running game. After a 3-2 start, Taylor missed two games with an MCL injury -- the Bills lost both games -- but he and WR Sammy Watkinsreturned in a Week 9 win against Miami, with Taylor going 11-for-12 for 181 yards and a touchdown. The defense hasn't been as strong as expected, and the Bills might continue to be a strong over team; they're 5-3 with the over, including three in a row.
[h=2]Miami Dolphins[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 20-1; now 100-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-8th; now T-18th
Season win total: 9; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The addition of Ndamukong Suh to an already solid defense and the continuing development of QB Ryan Tannehill had Miami as a darkhorse playoff contender.
What we've learned: The Dolphins started 1-3, and coach Joe Philbin was fired during the team's bye week after a Week 4 trip to London. Miami won its first two games convincingly under interim coach Dan Campbell, against Tennessee and Houston, but then were routed by New England and Buffalo the last two weeks. The Dolphins will probably continue to do well against the dregs of the league, but they can't match up with elite teams.
[h=2]AFC North[/h]
[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 40-1; now 10-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened 10th; now 10th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 8
ATS record: 7-0-1; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The Bengals were expected to be a pretty solid team, but the biggest obstacle was playing in a tough division.
What we've learned: They've exceeded any and all expectations at 8-0 and are No. 6 on offense and No. 12 on defense. As bettors are getting on the bandwagon, oddsmakers are sure to inflate their point spreads. Of course, the big question for most people is: Can the Bengals carry their success to the postseason for once?
[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Super Bowl odds: Opened 20-1; now 30-1
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-13th; now T-14th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 5 (9 games)
ATS record: 4-3-2; over/unders: 2-7
What we thought before the season: The Steelers were expected to have one of the most explosive offenses in the league -- at least once Le'Veon Bell andMartavis Bryant returned from their two- and four-game suspensions, respectively. The defense was expected to go through a rebuilding process, with several veterans retiring and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau leaving.
What we've learned: Bell and Bryant returned, but Ben Roethlisbergermissed four games with a knee injury. The Steelers overcame that by going 2-2, and Big Ben returned in Week 8, but now Roethlisberger could be out a few more weeks with a mid-foot sprain suffered in Sunday's win over Oakland. With not much expected from the defense, and with the injury carousel on offense, Pittsburgh has turned into an under team. The Steelers still have the potential to make some noise come playoff time -- that is, assuming they can hold onto a wild-card spot
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-8th; now T-20th
Season win total: 9; current wins: 2
ATS record: 1-6-1; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: In the tough AFC North, Baltimore had the highest over/under season win total at 9. The Ravens, while not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past, were expected to be right in the mix for the division title and a potential Super Bowl longshot.
What we've learned: No team has underachieved as much as the Ravens, who would need to go 8-0 the rest of the way to top their over/under win total. They're also 1-6-1 ATS. However, they clearly have more talent than their SU and ATS records indicate. They've been in most games, only to fall short in the end. With people dismissing them, the Ravens could be live underdogs many times the rest of the season.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 27th; now T-27th
Season win total: 6.5; current wins: 2 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; over/unders: 7-2
What we thought before the season: Cleveland was 7-9 last year, but that was with Brian Hoyer under center. The Browns entered this year with their annual quarterback controversy, and Josh McCown won the job despite many people clamoring for Johnny Manziel to be given a shot.
What we've learned: McCown has had some good statistical games, but the Browns are still 27th in total offense, and wins have been harder to come by; they have two, including one in Manziel's first start. Low expectations combined with the team's 29th-ranked defense have helped over bettors go 7-2, and that's likely to continue.
[h=2]AFC South[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened 5th; now T-10th
Season win total: 10.5; current wins: 4 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; over/unders: 5-4
What we thought before the season: The Colts added Frank Gore andAndre Johnson to an already potent offense, and Andrew Luck was expected to, well, still be Andrew Luck. Oh, and they were expected to run away with the AFC South.
What we've learned: Luck has underachieved and, at times, looked putrid. Indianapolis is still in first place, but mostly because the rest of the division has been worse. The Colts showed their potential with a 27-24 upset of the previously undefeated Broncos on Sunday; however, it was announced Tuesday that Luck will be sidelined with a lacerated kidney. The Colts did step up to beat Houston in Week 8 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, so they could be a bet-on team if their lines get overadjusted by oddsmakers or the betting public.
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-13th; now 24th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 5-2-1
What we thought before the season: Hoyer and Ryan Mallett battled for the starting quarterback job. The hope was that the defense, led by the all-worldJ.J. Watt could allow the offense to be led by a game-manager QB. The hope was also that Arian Foster would run wild after missing the first few games.
What we've learned: Houston squandered a huge opportunity to take control of the AFC South race when it hosted Indianapolis, which was without Luck because of an injury, in Week 5's Thursday night game. The defense hasn't lived up to expectations, though it's not terrible at No. 14 in yards allowed per game. Foster did return but then suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 7. The Texans will probably continue to be playable against weak teams, but it's hard to trust them against better teams. Their offense ranks 31st with 5.0 yards per play and now has only one playmaker in DeAndre Hopkins.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 32nd; now T-27th
Season win total: 5.5; current wins: 2
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The Titans used the No. 2 pick in the draft to take QB Marcus Mariota, and the expectation was that they were going to build slowly around him -- so expectations weren't very high at all.
What we've learned: Mariota and Tennessee started impressively, upsetting Tampa Bay and No. 1 pick Jameis Winston as a 3-point underdog, but that was short-lived. The Titans lost their next six games, and head coach Ken Whisenhunt lost his job. They won their first game under interim coach Mike Mularkey as 6.5-point road underdogs at New Orleans and are now a respectable 4-4 ATS despite their 2-6 SU record. The fear is that the resurgence could be short-lived, similar to the Dolphins, who won two straight after firing Philbin and now have lost two straight. But the Titans' defense is No. 6 with just 329 yards allowed per game and gives hope that the team can be more competitive in the second half.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 30th; now T-27th
Season win total: 5.5; current wins: 2
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 6-2
What we thought before the season: As usual, expectations were low for Jacksonville, though the hope was that Blake Bortles would continue to show improvement. The Jaguars' big offseason acquisition was TE Julius Thomas, but he started the season on the sideline.
What we've learned: Thomas made his Jacksonville debut in Week 5, but he has only 13 catches in four games and is averaging 8.9 yards per reception with one touchdown. It's evident he's not as effective with Bortles targeting him as he was with Peyton Manning. Similar to the Titans, the Jaguars are a respectable 4-4 ATS and have been competitive at times. That's thanks to the offense and defense being middle-of-the-road, ranked No. 16 and No. 18, respectively, in yards per game. They're certainly playable in spots and could continue their success with overs if the offense continues to improve.
[h=2]AFC West[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-3rd; now T-2nd
Season win total: 10; current wins: 7
ATS record: 5-3; over/unders: 3-4-1
What we thought before the season: With Manning in the twilight of his Hall of Fame career, it was expected that the Broncos would rely more on the running game with Gary Kubiak taking over for John Fox as head coach. The defense was expected to be outstanding and take a lot of pressure off Manning.
What we've learned: The defense, ranked No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (274.1) and per play (4.2), has been even better than advertised and has bailed out the offense time and time again, including pick-sixes to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Manning and the offense showed life in a 29-10 rout of the Packers in Week 8, but overall the Broncos are lucky to be 5-3 ATS. I would expect them to have a losing ATS record in the second half as bettors continue to back them like they did before their 27-24 loss at Indianapolis in Week 9.
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-28th; now T-18th
Season win total: 5.5; current wins: 4
ATS record: 5-3; over/unders: 6-2
What we thought before the season: Rookie WR Amari Cooper came into the league with a lot of hype and looked in sync with QB Derek Carr in the preseason. The hopes weren't as high for the defense, and Oakland was seen as a good over team.
What we've learned: The Raiders have lived up to their expectations. They're 6-2 with the over so far, Cooper has been as good as advertised and the offense has also gotten a boost from RB Latavius Murray, who is having a breakout season. The defense has stepped up on occasion, especially the ageless Charles Woodson, but it is still ranked No. 30 in total defense, so the overs should continue. The Raiders should also be considered live underdogs, especially when facing mediocre defenses.
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-11th; now T-16th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: Coach Andy Reid brought WR Jeremy Maclin over from Philadelphia to try to upgrade a WR corps that didn't have a touchdown catch last season. With an over/under of 8.5 wins, the Chiefs weren't expected to challenge the Broncos for the AFC West title, but a wild-card berth looked possible.
What we've learned: Maclin ended Kansas City's wide receiver TD drought, but not until Week 4. Travis Kelce started the season as Alex Smith's top target, with two TDs in a Week 1 win over Houston, and has been a consistent threat. The offense suffered a major blow when RB Jamaal Charles went down in Week 5. The defense is ranked No. 17 but has held opponents under 20 points in each of the last four games, so I'm looking for the Chiefs to be more of an under team in the second half.
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-20th; now T-25th
Season win total: 8; current wins: 2 (9 games)
ATS record: 3-6; over/unders: 4-4-1
What we thought before the season: Philip Rivers is a proven commodity, so the big question was if rookie RB Melvin Gordon could take some pressure off him and bring balance to the offense.
What we've learned: Gordon's stats have disappointed so far (just 413 yards rushing in nine games, 3.6 YPC, no TDs, four fumbles), but it hasn't all been his fault. The offensive line hasn't opened holes for him, and with the Chargers often falling behind, Rivers has been forced to drop back to pass more. They failed as 4-point home favorites in Week 9 against the Bears, but I would look to play the Chargers as underdogs with a great chance at backdoor covers. I certainly wouldn't trust them as favorites.
[h=2]NFC East[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened 22nd; now T-10th
Season win total: 8; current wins: 5 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 5-3-1; over/unders: 5-3-1
What we thought before the season: The Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era has been Super Bowl(s) or bust, so everyone was wondering if they had one more magic run in them. We also didn't know if/when we'd see Jason Pierre-Paul after he injured his hand in a fireworks accident.
What we've learned: The Giants blew leads in their first two games but have rebounded to lead the NFC East at 5-4, though the Eagles, who won the first meeting, are 4-4. The defense has been a major disappointment, ranking last in the league with 422.8 yards allowed per game. The offense has struggled at times, and it hasn't helped that Victor Cruz hasn't made it on the field yet. Otherwise New York would be even better than 5-3-1 with the over. JPP returned in Week 9, and the Giants allowed under 20 points for just the second time this season, albeit against the Buccaneers. I'd look for the Giants to continue being an over team, and with no lead safe, I'd fade them when laying too many points.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 7th; now 8th
Season win total: 10; current wins: 4
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 2-6
What we thought before the season: Chip Kelly made a lot of changes, trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford and sending McCoy to Buffalo before signing DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. The Eagles were still expected to have a high-flying offense and were the favorites to win the NFC East.
What we've learned: Murray started incredibly slow, there have been injuries along the offensive line and the Eagles haven't been as explosive as expected. Bradford hasn't been as accurate as expected, though the offense is still No. 10 at 366.4 yards per game. The Eagles have been a great under team, starting 4-0 as oddsmakers shaded their totals high and sitting at 6-2 at midseason. The Eagles came out of their bye and scored 33 points at Dallas on Sunday night, and I'm expecting them to be more of an over team the rest of the way.
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-28th; now 26th
Season win total: 6; current wins: 3
ATS record: 3-5; over/unders: 3-5
What we thought before the season: The Robert Griffin III-Kirk Cousinsquarterback controversy seemed to split the team, and the Redskins went into the season with Cousins as the starter. The defense was thought to have significant holes.
What we've learned: The defense actually played great the first two weeks, shutting down Miami in a game the Redskins should have won and then St. Louis, but it's been sieve-like since then. It is now 21st in yards allowed per game and has allowed at least 20 points in each of the last six games. Except for the game against Tampa, in which the Redskins rallied from a 24-point deficit -- and think how badly they must have been playing to be down by 24 to the Bucs -- the offense has struggled and is 29th in total offense. I would look to fade the Skins, though they probably won't be favored the rest of the season. It's hard to trust the offense for an over and hard to trust the defense for an under.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 6th; now T-20th
Season win total: 9.5; current wins: 2
ATS record: 2-6; over/unders: 3-4-1
What we thought before the season: Coming off a 12-4 season, there were high hopes in Dallas with a defense that would only get better after Greg Hardyand Rolando McClain returned from their suspensions. The offense lost DeMarco Murray, but the line was expected to be able to open holes for whoever replaced him.
What we've learned: The Cowboys got off to a great start, rallying to beat the Giants 27-26 in Week 1 and then beating down the Eagles 20-10 in Week 2. The win over Philly was costly, however, with Tony Romo suffering a collarbone injury, and the Cowboys haven't won since. Even though they're only 2-6 ATS, they've been close in a lot of their games. That includes overtime losses against the Saints and Eagles in which they were getting +3 both times and didn't even get a push, plus a 13-12 loss to the Seahawks. I believe they'll do better ATS moving forward, even before Romo returns.
[h=2]NFC North[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-3rd; now T-6th
Season win total: 11; current wins: 6
ATS record: 5-3; over/unders: 3-5
What we thought before the season: With many considering Aaron Rodgers the best QB in the game, the Packers were expected to challenge the Seahawks again as the top team in the NFC, and they were certainly expected to run away with the NFC North. This was tempered a bit when WR Jordy Nelsonwent down with a season-ending injury in preseason, but expectations were still high.
What we've learned: Green Bay lived up to the hype with a 6-0 start and covering its first five games, though none was by more than a touchdown over the spread. The Packers, who are surprisingly only No. 24 in yards per game, have lost two straight, albeit to the Broncos, who were undefeated at the time, and the Panthers, are still are undefeated. The public will still love to bet them, so I'm sure we'll find spots to fade them down the stretch.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 19th; now 9th
Season win total: 8; current wins: 6
ATS record: 7-1; over/unders: 1-5-2
What we thought before the season: A lot of wiseguys were touting Minnesota as a darkhorse team with the return of RB Adrian Peterson, QBTeddy Bridgewater's emergence in the second half last season and a Mike Zimmer-led defense with more pieces in place.
What we've learned: It didn't start so well, with the Vikings losing 20-3 at San Francisco in the season opener. However, they covered the spread in their next seven games, and their only straight-up loss was 23-20 at Denver in Week 4, when they were 7-point road underdogs. The offense is actually only No. 30 in yards per game, but the defense has stepped up at No. 7, and the Vikes are tied for allowing a league-low 17.5 point per game; the Broncos are the only team to score more than 20 points on them. The under is 5-1-2, and I look for that to continue.
Vegas Rankings: Opened 26th; now 23rd
Season win total: 6.5; current wins: 3
ATS record: 4-4; over/unders: 3-5
What we thought before the season: Brandon Marshall left for New York, and his replacement, first-round pick Kevin White, had shin surgery and hasn't played. But the biggest problems for the Bears looked like they would be on defense, which was No. 30 in yards allowed last year.
What we've learned: The defense has actually overachieved this year, ranking No. 9 in yards allowed, but the offense hasn't always been able to capitalize, except for the Bears' wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers. Too bad they're not in the AFC West. They do tend to take every game down to the final gun, as they did in their 22-19 win at San Diego on Monday night, and they should be better against the spread down the stretch.
Vegas Rankings: Opened T-11th; now T-27th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 1
ATS record: 1-7; over/unders: 5-3
What we thought before the season: The Lions looked like they learned how to pull out close games last year and nearly beat the Cowboys in the playoffs, who nearly beat the Packers, who nearly beat the Seahawks, who nearly beat the Patriots. It seemed like they weren't that far from being a Super Bowl contender, despite losing Ndamukong Suh to Miami and Nick Fairley to St. Louis.
What we've learned: It hasn't worked out as well as planned for the Lions. They lost their first five games and are 1-7 SU and ATS at the halfway point, and most of Detroit's losses haven't even been close. If anything, I'd look to play more overs in Lions games as they mostly play out the string on a disappointing season.
[h=2]NFC South[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-23rd; now T-6th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 8
ATS record: 6-2; Over/unders 5-2-1
What we thought before the season: Carolina was the defending NFC South champion at only 7-8-1 and wasn't expected to be much better this year with an over/under win total of 8.5 (same as Atlanta and New Orleans). When the Panthers' top weapon, WR Kelvin Benjamin, went down in the preseason, most people discounted their chances further.
What we've learned: The Panthers started strong, albeit against a soft early schedule, but have beaten the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers their past four games and are the only undefeated team in the NFC, with a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Cam Newton also has impressed by spreading the ball around and coming through with late scoring drives. However, one has to think their run has to stop sometime, especially against the spread. I'd also expect their over tendency (5-2-1) also will reverse.
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-20th; now T-14th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 6 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; Over/unders 2-7
What we thought before the season: We knew the offense would be potent as long as Matt Ryan's receivers stayed healthy. The defense also was expected to improve under new head coach Dan Quinn, former defensive coordinator in Seattle.
What we've learned: The Falcons flew out of the gate, winning their first five games while the Matt Ryan-to-Julio Jones combo looked unstoppable. Devonta Freeman also took over the RB duties and became another fantasy superstar. The undefeated run stopped in Week 6 at New Orleans, then the Falcons barely beat the Titans 10-7 and now have lost two straight to the Buccaneers and 49ers, which was disappointing for fans and backers as this was seen as a soft stretch in their schedule. With some tough games coming, including two against Carolina, I'll be against the Falcons more than on them (plus they should continue to have more unders than overs, though probably not at the current 7-2 pace).
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-13th; now T-20th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 4 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-4-1; Over/unders 5-4
What we thought before the season: New Orleans traded away Drew Brees' favorite target, Jimmy Graham, but the offense was still expected to be explosive with the defense showing improvement over last year.
What we've learned: Brees is putting up great numbers and the offense is No. 1 in yards per game; however, the defense is as weak as ever, ranking No. 31 in yards allowed. After an 0-3 start, wins over the Cowboys, Falcons, Colts and Giants made it look like the Saints were back, but then they lost to the Titans 34-28 this past Sunday. They have gone over (way over) their past two games and I'm going to ride that until oddsmakers catch up.
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 31th; now T-27th
Season win total: 6; current wins: 3
ATS record: 4-4; Over/unders 5-3
What we thought before the season: When a team has the No. 1 draft pick, it usually means they have a lot more holes than the top pick can solve. Jameis Winston was being thrown right into the fire, so we expected some rookie mistakes.
What we've learned: Winston threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass and the Bucs were blown out by the Titans 42-14 in the opener, but Winston has actually played better than expected for the most part. Despite mediocre offensive and defensive stats, he has led upsets of the Saints and Falcons as well as beating the Jaguars as a favorite. I can almost guarantee I'll be on the Bucs when they play the Saints and Falcons again, as well as when they're big underdogs.
[h=2]NFC West[/h]
Vegas Rankings: Opened season T-13th; now 4th
Season win total: 8.5; current wins: 6
ATS record: 5-3; Over/unders 6-2
What we thought before the season: The return of Carson Palmer, after the team fell apart last year after he was injured, created optimism in the desert. The Cardinals lost defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to the Jets, but the defense was expected to be strong again.
What we've learned: The defense is No. 3 in total defense and one of the best ball-hawking units in the league, but it's the offense that has really impressed as it is also ranked No. 3 with Palmer spreading the ball around to a talented corps of receivers and Chris Johnson reviving his career after replacing the injuredAndre Ellington. Arizona has been good to bettors, including over bettors. It's going to keep getting harder for the Cards to cover with the books inflating their lines because so many bettors are on their bandwagon. I would look for spots to fade them in the second half.
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 1st; now 5th
Season win total: 11; current wins: 4
ATS record: 2-5-1; Over/unders 3-5
What we thought before the season: With back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, the best defense in the league and adding Graham on offense, the Seahawks looked primed to make another run.
What we've learned: The Super Bowl hangover (where the SB loser often underachieves the next season) hit the Seahawks as they lost their first two games to the Rams and Packers. They've rebounded to get back in the wild-card race (and a shot to catch Arizona in the division if the Cardinals fall apart like they did last year), but are still a money-burning 2-5-1 ATS. Seattle won its last two games before its bye over San Francisco and Dallas, though the 13-12 win over the Cowboys didn't cover. I'll probably keep fading the Seahawks, starting with the Cardinals +3 in Week 10.
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 18th; now T-10th
Season win total: 7.5; current wins: 4
ATS record: 4-4; Over/unders 2-6
What we thought before the season: St. Louis traded Sam Bradford to Philadelphia for Nick Foles, so everyone was waiting to see how that swap worked out. First-round choice Todd Gurley was taken with the knowledge that he would miss the start of the season but would hopefully be worth the wait.
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</article>What we've learned: The Rams started the season by upsetting the Seahawks, but then lost to the Redskins and Steelers. Gurley made his debut in that Steelers game, then had 100-yard games in his first four starts and the Rams went 3-1. They came up short in Week 9 against Minnesota to fall back to .500 both SU and ATS. St. Louis is 6-2 with the under, and with a defense that is No. 5 in yards allowed per game and a reliance on the running game (though Gurley can score from anywhere), I expect the unders to continue. Jeff Fisher is also the best underdog coach out there, so I'll be looking to back the Rams in that role.
Vegas Rankings: Opened season 25th; now 32nd
Season win total: 6.5; current wins: 3 (in 9 games)
ATS record: 4-5; Over/unders 4-5
What we thought before the season: The wheels fell off last year, and then coach Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan, plus Frank Gore and Michael Crabtreeleft via free agency and a number of defensive players retired. Many people were expecting the 49ers to be the worst team in the league.
What we've learned: San Francisco's upset of Minnesota in Week 1 was shocking, but the 49ers have mostly played down to expectations, though the cupboard wasn't totally bare and they also have pulled upsets against the Ravens and Falcons. The offense is averaging an NFL-worst 286.2 yards per game and the defense is ranked No. 27, so there's not too much hope. All three of their wins have been at home, though, so I'll keep an eye out for them as home underdogs; otherwise I'll mostly pass on their games.
