[h=1]2015-16 college basketball betting guide[/h]Andrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
The college basketball season has arrived, which means betting opportunities will be plentiful over the next five months. Per usual there's a lot of change, with 40 new head coaches and plenty of transfers. In our betting preview, we'll examine rule changes that matter for bettors, "bet-on" and "bet-against" teams and analyze the top value bets in the futures market.
[h=2]"Bet-on" teams[/h]
Mississippi State Bulldogs (2014: 13-19 SU, 14-14 ATS)
Being able to lure Ben Howland to Starkville was a huge score for the Mississippi State program. Former head coach Rick Ray got his players to fight on a nightly basis, but they were routinely lost the last five minutes of games. Case in point: Of MSU's 18 losses, half were by six or less. The Bulldogs finished 6-12 in SEC play but had the talent to be .500.
Howland has a strong track record and is going to be a lot harder on his players than Ray was, but from a pure X's and O's standpoint, he's a massive upgrade. His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court drama than his team's actual play, and he's no longer forced to deal with multiple egos. Instead, he inherits workmanlike seniors Craig Sword, Gavin Ware and Fred Thomas. And blue-chip recruit Malik Newman is reportedly the type of talent MSU hasn't had since the Rick Stansbury era.
Perhaps most important is there's a lot of potential to make immediate waves in the mediocre SEC. According to the league's preseason poll, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M were picked for second and third, respectively, behind Kentucky. The Commodores and Aggies look solid but didn't even reach the NCAA tournament last season. Bottom line: If you eliminate Kentucky, there simply isn't much difference talent-wise between No. 2 and No. 13, and that's where Howland can make a difference. My only concern is will the players respond to his demanding style on a nightly basis? If they can coexist, this has the makings of not only a postseason team but a "bet on" one as well.
Other "bet-on" teams to consider...
Things got really bad for Seton Hall last season with locker room issues and the Pirates' two best players and co-alpha dogs, Isaiah Whitehead and Sterling Gibbs, unable to coexist on the floor at the same time. Gibbs is gone, leaving the talented Whitehead in charge. Amazingly, the Hall still finished 17-13 ATS despite a 2-8 ATS slide to close out the season. I remain a believer in head coach Kevin Willard, and the Hall won't garner much betting attention.
UNLV head coach Dave Rice is at the end of his leash but has arguably his most talented squad. The Rebels finished 8-10 in Mountain West play, including three losses by a combined 11 points to league champ San Diego State. They covered 11 of their last 13 games and were statistically better than their overall record indicated.
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[h=2]"Bet-against" teams[/h]
Villanova Wildcats (2014: 33-3 SU, 25-10 ATS)
The timing seems ripe to step in and fade Villanova after last season's historic 33-3 campaign that saw the Wildcats go nearly two months without a loss and produce an incredible 25-10 ATS mark. In fact, dating back the last two years, Villanova is a combined 47-20 ATS. That's an amazing track record for such a high-profile program.
There was nothing fluky about the Wildcats' success, as they led the Big East in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And I have no problem with them being the preseason pick to win the Big East again this season, as on paper, they have the most talented squad. But off such a successful year against the spread and with more accolades being thrown this team's way, it's going to get even tougher to cover numbers on a consistent basis.
The gap between Villanova and the rest of the league still exists. Butler, Georgetown, Providence and Xavier all have nice squads, and Marquette should be improved. The rest of the league, however, looks pretty weak. Villanova was laying -9 or more in 13 of 18 Big East games last season and once again projects to be favored in all 18 games.
With such a stranglehold on the league, all it takes as a small regression to offer bettors opportunity. Last year's regular season was for all intents and purposes perfect. Keep in mind there was literally no time lost to injury out of Villanova's core group of players. With the losses of valuable seniors Darrun Hilliard and JayVaughn Pinkston and Dylan Ennis (transferred to Oregon), covering numbers at such a high clip appears unrealistic. This isn't the type of team you sit back and blindly fade, but there are going to be prime spots and prices to bet against this squad.
Other "bet against" teams to consider
There isn't a team in the Big East that needs to be coached more than St. John's, yet despite that, the Johnnies decided to hire favorite son Chris Mullin, who has never been a head coach. The betting markets aren't likely to give St. John's much of a chance, but this has the makings of a total disaster.
The never-ending well of talent appears to have dried up in Memphis as Josh Pastner's ability to coach really came into question last season. There's a stench on this program -- seven players transferred -- that has me looking to fade at every opportunity.
[h=2]Best futures bets (lines courtesy of Las Vegas' Westgate as of Nov. 3)[/h]The usual suspects litter the top of betting board with Kentucky (7-1), North Carolina (8-1), Kansas (10-1) and Duke (12-1). The four programs have accounted for five of the last eight titles, as well as two runner-ups. Logic dictates that this year's winner will emerge from that foursome. With the exception of UConn's title run in 2014 -- the Huskies were 60-1 prior to the season -- recent history and prices say if you are going to invest in the "favorites," anything 10-1 or more is a bargain given the current climate of the betting marketplace. The good news is there doesn't appear to be a clear-cut favorite like last year's Kentucky squad that was hovering around 3-1 prior to the start of the season.
But even with the percentages pointing towards one of those four teams cutting down the nets, you can't rule out the second-tier competitors. A lot of folks have high hopes for Maryland, but at 7-1 you're simply not getting much value. When compared to that price tag, Gonzaga (20-1), Michigan State (20-1) andArizona (25-1) are a steal. Oklahoma (30-1) and Michigan (40-1) should also be considered as they return a host of talent and have two experienced coaches.
In terms of long shots, you typically want to look for established programs that have regressed or lost key players. Louisville (50-1), which nearly reached the Final Four despite no offensive ability whatsoever, is reloading with transfers. And Texas (60-1) took some early money with bettors thinking Shaka Smart will finally provide the ultra-talented Longhorns with an identity.
[h=2]Important rule changes[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right;">
</article>Nearly all of this year's preseason talk has centered around the shot clock being shortened to 30 seconds. The powers that be felt the small sample size of the CBI, CIT and NIT tournaments was a way of proving that pace and scoring would go up. The problem is that those tournaments -- particularly the CBI and CIT -- were already notorious for being higher-scoring affairs. When the NIT whittled down its field to the quarterfinals and beyond, there was little to no impact. Heck, Stanford and Miami needed overtime just to hit 130 combined points in the NIT championship game.
For most power conference teams, the change will be minimal. In fact, the switch to 30 seconds should favor a lot of those squads in nonconference play with more possessions and fewer high-percentage shots for the smaller, mid-major underdogs. If there's going to be a significant increase in scoring, how the game is called will be more of a factor.
The NCAA moved the arc below the basket from 3 feet to 4 feet as well, which should lessen the ridiculous amount of charges that refs love to call. There's also talk about limiting physical play in the paint. During the first month of last season, refs called it tight and teams spent nearly the entire game in the bonus and thus, at the free throw line. But once conference play started, they backed off and things quickly returned to the norm.
ESPN INSIDER
The college basketball season has arrived, which means betting opportunities will be plentiful over the next five months. Per usual there's a lot of change, with 40 new head coaches and plenty of transfers. In our betting preview, we'll examine rule changes that matter for bettors, "bet-on" and "bet-against" teams and analyze the top value bets in the futures market.
[h=2]"Bet-on" teams[/h]
Being able to lure Ben Howland to Starkville was a huge score for the Mississippi State program. Former head coach Rick Ray got his players to fight on a nightly basis, but they were routinely lost the last five minutes of games. Case in point: Of MSU's 18 losses, half were by six or less. The Bulldogs finished 6-12 in SEC play but had the talent to be .500.
Howland has a strong track record and is going to be a lot harder on his players than Ray was, but from a pure X's and O's standpoint, he's a massive upgrade. His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court drama than his team's actual play, and he's no longer forced to deal with multiple egos. Instead, he inherits workmanlike seniors Craig Sword, Gavin Ware and Fred Thomas. And blue-chip recruit Malik Newman is reportedly the type of talent MSU hasn't had since the Rick Stansbury era.
Perhaps most important is there's a lot of potential to make immediate waves in the mediocre SEC. According to the league's preseason poll, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M were picked for second and third, respectively, behind Kentucky. The Commodores and Aggies look solid but didn't even reach the NCAA tournament last season. Bottom line: If you eliminate Kentucky, there simply isn't much difference talent-wise between No. 2 and No. 13, and that's where Howland can make a difference. My only concern is will the players respond to his demanding style on a nightly basis? If they can coexist, this has the makings of not only a postseason team but a "bet on" one as well.
Other "bet-on" teams to consider...
Things got really bad for Seton Hall last season with locker room issues and the Pirates' two best players and co-alpha dogs, Isaiah Whitehead and Sterling Gibbs, unable to coexist on the floor at the same time. Gibbs is gone, leaving the talented Whitehead in charge. Amazingly, the Hall still finished 17-13 ATS despite a 2-8 ATS slide to close out the season. I remain a believer in head coach Kevin Willard, and the Hall won't garner much betting attention.
UNLV head coach Dave Rice is at the end of his leash but has arguably his most talented squad. The Rebels finished 8-10 in Mountain West play, including three losses by a combined 11 points to league champ San Diego State. They covered 11 of their last 13 games and were statistically better than their overall record indicated.
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[h=2]"Bet-against" teams[/h]
The timing seems ripe to step in and fade Villanova after last season's historic 33-3 campaign that saw the Wildcats go nearly two months without a loss and produce an incredible 25-10 ATS mark. In fact, dating back the last two years, Villanova is a combined 47-20 ATS. That's an amazing track record for such a high-profile program.
There was nothing fluky about the Wildcats' success, as they led the Big East in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And I have no problem with them being the preseason pick to win the Big East again this season, as on paper, they have the most talented squad. But off such a successful year against the spread and with more accolades being thrown this team's way, it's going to get even tougher to cover numbers on a consistent basis.
The gap between Villanova and the rest of the league still exists. Butler, Georgetown, Providence and Xavier all have nice squads, and Marquette should be improved. The rest of the league, however, looks pretty weak. Villanova was laying -9 or more in 13 of 18 Big East games last season and once again projects to be favored in all 18 games.
With such a stranglehold on the league, all it takes as a small regression to offer bettors opportunity. Last year's regular season was for all intents and purposes perfect. Keep in mind there was literally no time lost to injury out of Villanova's core group of players. With the losses of valuable seniors Darrun Hilliard and JayVaughn Pinkston and Dylan Ennis (transferred to Oregon), covering numbers at such a high clip appears unrealistic. This isn't the type of team you sit back and blindly fade, but there are going to be prime spots and prices to bet against this squad.
Other "bet against" teams to consider
There isn't a team in the Big East that needs to be coached more than St. John's, yet despite that, the Johnnies decided to hire favorite son Chris Mullin, who has never been a head coach. The betting markets aren't likely to give St. John's much of a chance, but this has the makings of a total disaster.
The never-ending well of talent appears to have dried up in Memphis as Josh Pastner's ability to coach really came into question last season. There's a stench on this program -- seven players transferred -- that has me looking to fade at every opportunity.
[h=2]Best futures bets (lines courtesy of Las Vegas' Westgate as of Nov. 3)[/h]The usual suspects litter the top of betting board with Kentucky (7-1), North Carolina (8-1), Kansas (10-1) and Duke (12-1). The four programs have accounted for five of the last eight titles, as well as two runner-ups. Logic dictates that this year's winner will emerge from that foursome. With the exception of UConn's title run in 2014 -- the Huskies were 60-1 prior to the season -- recent history and prices say if you are going to invest in the "favorites," anything 10-1 or more is a bargain given the current climate of the betting marketplace. The good news is there doesn't appear to be a clear-cut favorite like last year's Kentucky squad that was hovering around 3-1 prior to the start of the season.
But even with the percentages pointing towards one of those four teams cutting down the nets, you can't rule out the second-tier competitors. A lot of folks have high hopes for Maryland, but at 7-1 you're simply not getting much value. When compared to that price tag, Gonzaga (20-1), Michigan State (20-1) andArizona (25-1) are a steal. Oklahoma (30-1) and Michigan (40-1) should also be considered as they return a host of talent and have two experienced coaches.
In terms of long shots, you typically want to look for established programs that have regressed or lost key players. Louisville (50-1), which nearly reached the Final Four despite no offensive ability whatsoever, is reloading with transfers. And Texas (60-1) took some early money with bettors thinking Shaka Smart will finally provide the ultra-talented Longhorns with an identity.
[h=2]Important rule changes[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right;">
</article>Nearly all of this year's preseason talk has centered around the shot clock being shortened to 30 seconds. The powers that be felt the small sample size of the CBI, CIT and NIT tournaments was a way of proving that pace and scoring would go up. The problem is that those tournaments -- particularly the CBI and CIT -- were already notorious for being higher-scoring affairs. When the NIT whittled down its field to the quarterfinals and beyond, there was little to no impact. Heck, Stanford and Miami needed overtime just to hit 130 combined points in the NIT championship game.
For most power conference teams, the change will be minimal. In fact, the switch to 30 seconds should favor a lot of those squads in nonconference play with more possessions and fewer high-percentage shots for the smaller, mid-major underdogs. If there's going to be a significant increase in scoring, how the game is called will be more of a factor.
The NCAA moved the arc below the basket from 3 feet to 4 feet as well, which should lessen the ridiculous amount of charges that refs love to call. There's also talk about limiting physical play in the paint. During the first month of last season, refs called it tight and teams spent nearly the entire game in the bonus and thus, at the free throw line. But once conference play started, they backed off and things quickly returned to the norm.
