[h=1]Week 11 early NFL line moves[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines prior to Tuesday (so Week 12 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- After Sunday afternoon's NFL games and heading into the Sunday nighter, underdogs were 10-2 against the spread on Thursday and Sunday with nine outright upsets, so it's not surprising that there were a lot of adjustments when the Week 11 openers were posted.
The Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday with the NFC North lead hanging in the balance. A few weeks ago when the Packers were rolling along at 6-0, a lot of people thought they were going to run away with the division. When the advance line for this matchup was posted last week at the Westgate SuperBook, Green Bay was minus-3 (-120), which usually hints that it's more likely to go to minus-3.5.
However, the Packers lost 18-16 as a 10.5-point home favorite over the Lions and the Vikings went to Oakland and pulled off a 30-14 upset as 3-point road underdogs. When the Westgate put up its "opener" just after 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, they lowered the line to Green Bay minus-1.5. During the first hour of betting before the Sunday night kickoff, the offshore giant Pinnacle went with Green Bay minus-1 and the Westgate line was bet down to 1 (see chart) and then even while this article was being written, it was bet to pick 'em.
Kansas City's 29-10 upset of the Denver Broncos had an impact on two Week 11 lines. Denver was a 6.5-point road favorite at Chicago on the advance line, but that was moved a whole field goal to minus-3.5 after the Broncos' loss coupled with the Bears' 37-13 upset in St. Louis as 7-point underdogs.
The Chiefs' next game at San Diego was also adjusted as they were 2.5-point road favorites last week but are now minus-3.5.
There is another huge move on the chart as Atlanta was minus-3.5 over Indianapolis when the advance lines were posted Tuesday and were re-opened at minus-6.5 on Sunday. However, Westgate supervisor Jeff Sherman explained that the adjustment didn't have to do with anything from this weekend (which is obvious since both teams were on their bye) but that the advance line was posted before the news that Andrew Luck would be out a few weeks. It was then adjusted to minus-6.5, and that's what the Westgate put up on Sunday as well.
Here's a look at a few of the other adjustments to the Week 11 lines:
Titans at Jaguars (Thursday): This was Jacksonville minus-1 and after the Jaguars beat the Ravens and the Titans lost to the Panthers, it was re-opened minus-2.5. Most offshore books plus the Wynn and CG Technology books in Vegas opened Jacksonville minus-3 (even) and that's where the Westgate line got bet to by kickoff of the Sunday night game.
Redskins at Panthers: This was Carolina minus-8.5 last week and both teams won Sunday, but it was still adjusted downward to minus-7.5. Most offshore books opened at minus-7.5, but the CG Technology and William Hill books in Nevada went even lower at minus-7 with added juice and the Westgate got bet down to minus-7 by kickoff of the Sunday nighter.
Buccaneers at Eagles: Philadelphia was an 8-point home favorite on the advance line, but after the Eagles lost and the Buccaneers won on Sunday, it was lowered to minus-7. Most books have it off the board due to Philadelphia QBSam Bradford leaving Sunday's game with an injured shoulder and a concussion.
Bills at Patriots (Monday): This was New England minus-9.5 last week, but with Buffalo beating the New York Jets on Thursday night and the Patriots winning (but not covering) in their 27-26 win over the New York Giants, this was re-opened at New England minus-7.5. The line was bet down to 7, then back up to 7.5 and then back down to 7 by kickoff of the Sunday nighter. It could bounce back and forth like that all week.
We'll see how all of these lines (and others) get further bet into shape after the rest of the sports books put up their openers on Monday morning and then following them through the week.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 11 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook
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</tbody></aside>Note: Home teams in CAPS. The first number is the Westgate's advance line from last Tuesday; the second number is the Sunday afternoon "opener"; the third number is the move as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game.
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines prior to Tuesday (so Week 12 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- After Sunday afternoon's NFL games and heading into the Sunday nighter, underdogs were 10-2 against the spread on Thursday and Sunday with nine outright upsets, so it's not surprising that there were a lot of adjustments when the Week 11 openers were posted.
The Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday with the NFC North lead hanging in the balance. A few weeks ago when the Packers were rolling along at 6-0, a lot of people thought they were going to run away with the division. When the advance line for this matchup was posted last week at the Westgate SuperBook, Green Bay was minus-3 (-120), which usually hints that it's more likely to go to minus-3.5.
However, the Packers lost 18-16 as a 10.5-point home favorite over the Lions and the Vikings went to Oakland and pulled off a 30-14 upset as 3-point road underdogs. When the Westgate put up its "opener" just after 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, they lowered the line to Green Bay minus-1.5. During the first hour of betting before the Sunday night kickoff, the offshore giant Pinnacle went with Green Bay minus-1 and the Westgate line was bet down to 1 (see chart) and then even while this article was being written, it was bet to pick 'em.
Kansas City's 29-10 upset of the Denver Broncos had an impact on two Week 11 lines. Denver was a 6.5-point road favorite at Chicago on the advance line, but that was moved a whole field goal to minus-3.5 after the Broncos' loss coupled with the Bears' 37-13 upset in St. Louis as 7-point underdogs.
The Chiefs' next game at San Diego was also adjusted as they were 2.5-point road favorites last week but are now minus-3.5.
There is another huge move on the chart as Atlanta was minus-3.5 over Indianapolis when the advance lines were posted Tuesday and were re-opened at minus-6.5 on Sunday. However, Westgate supervisor Jeff Sherman explained that the adjustment didn't have to do with anything from this weekend (which is obvious since both teams were on their bye) but that the advance line was posted before the news that Andrew Luck would be out a few weeks. It was then adjusted to minus-6.5, and that's what the Westgate put up on Sunday as well.
Here's a look at a few of the other adjustments to the Week 11 lines:
Titans at Jaguars (Thursday): This was Jacksonville minus-1 and after the Jaguars beat the Ravens and the Titans lost to the Panthers, it was re-opened minus-2.5. Most offshore books plus the Wynn and CG Technology books in Vegas opened Jacksonville minus-3 (even) and that's where the Westgate line got bet to by kickoff of the Sunday night game.
Redskins at Panthers: This was Carolina minus-8.5 last week and both teams won Sunday, but it was still adjusted downward to minus-7.5. Most offshore books opened at minus-7.5, but the CG Technology and William Hill books in Nevada went even lower at minus-7 with added juice and the Westgate got bet down to minus-7 by kickoff of the Sunday nighter.
Buccaneers at Eagles: Philadelphia was an 8-point home favorite on the advance line, but after the Eagles lost and the Buccaneers won on Sunday, it was lowered to minus-7. Most books have it off the board due to Philadelphia QBSam Bradford leaving Sunday's game with an injured shoulder and a concussion.
Bills at Patriots (Monday): This was New England minus-9.5 last week, but with Buffalo beating the New York Jets on Thursday night and the Patriots winning (but not covering) in their 27-26 win over the New York Giants, this was re-opened at New England minus-7.5. The line was bet down to 7, then back up to 7.5 and then back down to 7 by kickoff of the Sunday nighter. It could bounce back and forth like that all week.
We'll see how all of these lines (and others) get further bet into shape after the rest of the sports books put up their openers on Monday morning and then following them through the week.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 11 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook
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| FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | ADVANCE | OPENERS | MOVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAGUARS | Titans | -1 | -2.5 | -3 (even) |
| PANTHERS | Redskins | -8.5 | -7.5 | -7 |
| Raiders | LIONS | -1 | -2 | -1.5 |
| Cowboys | DOLPHINS | OFF | OFF | -1 |
| FALCONS | Colts | -3.5 | -6.5 | -6 |
| Rams | RAVENS | -2 | -1 | |
| Jets | TEXANS | -2.5 | -2.5 | |
| Packers | VIKINGS | -3 (-120) | -1.5 | -1 |
| EAGLES | Buccaneers | -8 | -7 | |
| Broncos | BEARS | -6.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 |
| CARDINALS | Bengals | -3 | -3 (even) | |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | -11 | -12 | |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | -2.5 (-120) | -3.5 | |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | -9.5 | -7.5 |
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