[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 11[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
It's an undisputed fact that square bettors and weekend warriors overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which is why contrarian bettors have historically found value by taking underdogs and unders.
Since 2003, a majority of spread bettors have taken the underdog in just 18.69 percent of regular-season games. We have seen even more one-sided public betting on the total, with the public supporting the under in just 11.53 percent of games.
The value on these unpopular wagers has been amplified in recent weeks. In Week 10, underdogs posted a record of 12-2 against the spread, while the under went 8-4. Overall, underdogs have gone 82-59 against the spread this season, but simply taking every under has not been a profitable strategy.
Over the past 12 seasons, the under has gone just 1,566-1,590, but there are a number of trends that can be utilized to improve our results.
Simply betting every NFL under would not be profitable, but we knew that we could improve our return on investment (ROI) by concentrating on games with high totals. Traditionally, the over has fared well in games with low totals, while the under has been profitable in games with high totals. The logic behind this trend seems quite apparent, as higher totals mean that more points must be scored to hit the over.
Most bettors are familiar with key numbers for spread betting and realize that the final margin of victory is likely to be a multiple of three (field goal) or seven (touchdown and extra point). What those same bettors likely don't realize is that there are also key numbers for the over/under.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our past analysis showed that 37 and 44 were the most common data points, which shouldn't be too surprising to bettors who frequently see games finish with a final score of 20-17, 24-13, 24-20 or 27-17. For that reason, we focused on closing totals of 44.5 or higher to eliminate all low-scoring games and ensure that we get the best of a key number.
Past research has also shown that divisional games are low scoring because defenses have so much familiarity with opposing offenses. That edge is amplified late in the season when there is more game film and the teams have previously faced each other.
With this information driving our hypothesis, we were able to create a new over/under betting system that has won at a 61.8 percent rate and features three Week 11 system matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 11 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Why does this work?
A majority of the betting public has taken the over in nearly 90 percent of all games, which has created contrarian value on the under. That said, bettors are typically dissuaded from taking the over when the game features two great defenses or, in many cases, two atrocious offenses.
When the total closes at 44 or less, the under has gone just 938-1,028 (47.7 percent). In those games, there has been significantly more public support on the under. By eliminating these games, we're able to improve our win rate by more than three percent.
By focusing on late-season divisional rivalries, we are able to identify games in which the two teams have already faced off. This level of familiarity leads to less scoring and better returns for under bettors.
We should also note that this system has been particularly profitable over the past three years, posting a 52-28 record (67.4 percent) with plus-27.55 units won and a whopping 32 percent ROI.
[h=2]Week 11 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Under 45)
After winning their first six games of the season, the Packers have dropped their past three games, including a shocking upset last week to the Lions. With James Starks and Eddie Lacy both nursing injuries, the Packers have turned into a one-dimensional passing team. In fact, the Packers have attempted 109 passes over their past two games.
Starks and Lacy are both expected to play this week, and that could be a significant development for under bettors. Historically, we have found there is less scoring in games featuring two good rushing teams. Running the ball is less likely to result in a big play and causes the clock to keep running, which results in fewer possessions.
Green Bay is currently allowing 116.2 rushing yards per game, and we expect the Vikings offense will feature a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.
In this NFC North showdown, bettors should feel confident pounding the under.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Under 48)
It may be surprising to see value on the under in a Patriots game; after all, they have been the most profitable "over" team in our database and have scored 33.4 points per game this season. However, there are a number of factors working against New England.
For starters, the Patriots' short passing game hasn't been the same since they lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman. There have also been question marks surrounding the Pats' offensive line, which will be tested this week against a Bills defensive line that features Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams andJerry Hughes.
It's also worth noting that these two teams faced off in Week 2, when the Patriots defeated the Bills 40-32. Following such a high-scoring game, we have an excellent opportunity to go against the grain and buy on bad news.
Pinnacle, one of the market-setting offshore sportsbooks, has already dropped its total from 49.5 to 48 despite evenly split public betting. This seems to indicate that early sharp money has been taking the under in this matchup.
Many offshore books are still offering this total at 48.5, so make sure to shop for the best line before taking the under in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (Under 44.5)
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>In this battle of subpar AFC West rivals, the total opened at 44.5 and has seen very equally distributed public betting. Despite this even betting and lack of line movement, there was a steam move triggered on the under on Monday afternoon. This is an excellent indicator that sharp money is also taking the under in this matchup.
Many bettors may be worried about this game since the Chargers are coming off their bye week, and it's always been assumed that offenses have thrived when given the extra time to game plan. In fact, the under has a winning record when the home team is coming off a bye week.
These two teams haven't played each other this season, but last season, they combined for 43 points in their first matchup and just 26 in their second.
A number of square offshore sportsbooks are still hanging this total at 45, so once again, we suggest that bettors shop for the best line before taking the under.
ESPN INSIDER
It's an undisputed fact that square bettors and weekend warriors overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which is why contrarian bettors have historically found value by taking underdogs and unders.
Since 2003, a majority of spread bettors have taken the underdog in just 18.69 percent of regular-season games. We have seen even more one-sided public betting on the total, with the public supporting the under in just 11.53 percent of games.
The value on these unpopular wagers has been amplified in recent weeks. In Week 10, underdogs posted a record of 12-2 against the spread, while the under went 8-4. Overall, underdogs have gone 82-59 against the spread this season, but simply taking every under has not been a profitable strategy.
Over the past 12 seasons, the under has gone just 1,566-1,590, but there are a number of trends that can be utilized to improve our results.
Simply betting every NFL under would not be profitable, but we knew that we could improve our return on investment (ROI) by concentrating on games with high totals. Traditionally, the over has fared well in games with low totals, while the under has been profitable in games with high totals. The logic behind this trend seems quite apparent, as higher totals mean that more points must be scored to hit the over.
Most bettors are familiar with key numbers for spread betting and realize that the final margin of victory is likely to be a multiple of three (field goal) or seven (touchdown and extra point). What those same bettors likely don't realize is that there are also key numbers for the over/under.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Our past analysis showed that 37 and 44 were the most common data points, which shouldn't be too surprising to bettors who frequently see games finish with a final score of 20-17, 24-13, 24-20 or 27-17. For that reason, we focused on closing totals of 44.5 or higher to eliminate all low-scoring games and ensure that we get the best of a key number.
Past research has also shown that divisional games are low scoring because defenses have so much familiarity with opposing offenses. That edge is amplified late in the season when there is more game film and the teams have previously faced each other.
With this information driving our hypothesis, we were able to create a new over/under betting system that has won at a 61.8 percent rate and features three Week 11 system matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Unders | 1631-1653 (49.7%) | -114.65 | -3.5% |
| Under, Closing Total 44.5+ | 666-596 (52.8%) | +32.23 | +2.6% |
| Under, Closing Total 44.5+, Division Game | 251-192 (56.7%) | +44.58 | +10.1% |
| Under, Closing Total 44.5+, Division Game, Week 11 or later | 115-71 (61.8%) | +37.58 | +20.2% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 11 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Why does this work?
A majority of the betting public has taken the over in nearly 90 percent of all games, which has created contrarian value on the under. That said, bettors are typically dissuaded from taking the over when the game features two great defenses or, in many cases, two atrocious offenses.
When the total closes at 44 or less, the under has gone just 938-1,028 (47.7 percent). In those games, there has been significantly more public support on the under. By eliminating these games, we're able to improve our win rate by more than three percent.
By focusing on late-season divisional rivalries, we are able to identify games in which the two teams have already faced off. This level of familiarity leads to less scoring and better returns for under bettors.
We should also note that this system has been particularly profitable over the past three years, posting a 52-28 record (67.4 percent) with plus-27.55 units won and a whopping 32 percent ROI.
[h=2]Week 11 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Under 45)
After winning their first six games of the season, the Packers have dropped their past three games, including a shocking upset last week to the Lions. With James Starks and Eddie Lacy both nursing injuries, the Packers have turned into a one-dimensional passing team. In fact, the Packers have attempted 109 passes over their past two games.
Starks and Lacy are both expected to play this week, and that could be a significant development for under bettors. Historically, we have found there is less scoring in games featuring two good rushing teams. Running the ball is less likely to result in a big play and causes the clock to keep running, which results in fewer possessions.
Green Bay is currently allowing 116.2 rushing yards per game, and we expect the Vikings offense will feature a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.
In this NFC North showdown, bettors should feel confident pounding the under.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Under 48)
It may be surprising to see value on the under in a Patriots game; after all, they have been the most profitable "over" team in our database and have scored 33.4 points per game this season. However, there are a number of factors working against New England.
For starters, the Patriots' short passing game hasn't been the same since they lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman. There have also been question marks surrounding the Pats' offensive line, which will be tested this week against a Bills defensive line that features Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams andJerry Hughes.
It's also worth noting that these two teams faced off in Week 2, when the Patriots defeated the Bills 40-32. Following such a high-scoring game, we have an excellent opportunity to go against the grain and buy on bad news.
Pinnacle, one of the market-setting offshore sportsbooks, has already dropped its total from 49.5 to 48 despite evenly split public betting. This seems to indicate that early sharp money has been taking the under in this matchup.
Many offshore books are still offering this total at 48.5, so make sure to shop for the best line before taking the under in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (Under 44.5)
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>In this battle of subpar AFC West rivals, the total opened at 44.5 and has seen very equally distributed public betting. Despite this even betting and lack of line movement, there was a steam move triggered on the under on Monday afternoon. This is an excellent indicator that sharp money is also taking the under in this matchup.
Many bettors may be worried about this game since the Chargers are coming off their bye week, and it's always been assumed that offenses have thrived when given the extra time to game plan. In fact, the under has a winning record when the home team is coming off a bye week.
These two teams haven't played each other this season, but last season, they combined for 43 points in their first matchup and just 26 in their second.
A number of square offshore sportsbooks are still hanging this total at 45, so once again, we suggest that bettors shop for the best line before taking the under.
