[h=1]How to bet Tennessee-Jacksonville[/h][h=1]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER[/h]
Week 11 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley, Wunderdog and Erin Rynning are here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday.
[h=2]Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]Spread: Opened Jacksonville -3; now Jacksonville -3
Total: Opened 44; now 42
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Dave Tuley: The spread looks about right with these teams being fairly equal. Jacksonville is 3-6 and Tennessee is 2-7. The Titans' offense averages 5.3 yards per play, the Jaguars 5.2. The Jaguars' defense allows 5.3 yards per play, the Titans 5.4. So with Jacksonville at home, it makes sense it's favored by three points. Instead, let's look at the over/under.
The Jaguars are 6-3 with the over while the Titans are 5-4, yet this total is still priced pretty low. Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee offense, which let us down last week, should have more success against Jacksonville's No. 19 defense, and the Jaguars had four straight overs before staying under in their 22-20 upset of Baltimore on Sunday. Blake Bortles has the offense clicking with the two Allens (Hurns and Robinson), so I'm looking for a Thursday night shootout.
ATS pick: Over 43.
Erin Rynning: The Titans failed to follow up their debut win for interim head coach Mike Mularkey, losing to the Panthers last week 27-10. However, I still view the change at the top a step in the right direction, as his predecessor Ken Whisenhunt left much to be desired. Mularkey has tweaked his offensive line and the offense to better fit the potential of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars stole a win on the road last week in Baltimore, although they were out-gained by just under 150 yards and 2.2 yards per play. Jacksonville is now showing life with three straight spread covers, however it has faced an extremely weak slate of offensive teams. Expect a step forward from the Titans offense, and any value lingers with them at plus-3.
ATS pick: Titans + 3
Wunderdog: Coming off its surprise win over Baltimore, Jacksonville is favored. But this is a tough situational spot for them. The Jaguars are on short rest and just finished a grueling stretch playing five of the past seven on the road. Jacksonville doesn't have much offense, ranked 22nd in the NFL in yards and 23rd in points scored. And the Jacksonville defense is worse, ranked 30th in the league in points allowed at 28.3 a game.
The Jags have a losing home record and are 8-19-1 ATS in their past 28 home games. Rookie running back T.J. Yeldon was in a walking boot Monday and missed practice Tuesday. He might play but is not 100 percent. Tennessee's Marcus Mariota set an NFL rookie record for the most touchdown passes through eight games (13). The Titans defense ranks fifth in the league with 27 sacks and have permitted the third-fewest passing yards (213.8) per game. Take the points in this one.
ATS pick: Titans + 3
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]258.5 pass yards by Blake Bortles (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: Blake Bortles will have the benefit of facing a pretty banged-up Titans secondary. Cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Blidi Wreh-Wilson won't be playing, while Perrish Cox is recovering from a hamstring injury. In the past two games (without McCourty, the biggest piece of the Tennessee secondary), the Titans have allowed 9.3 yards per attempt to Drew Brees and Cam Newton. Brees is Brees, but for all his success this year, Newton is hardly considered an efficient passer. Tennessee's 7.6 yards per attempt average over the first six games wasn't good in its own right, ranking 23rd in the league. But the Titans' 9.3 yards per attempt average without McCourty is disastrous, the fourth-worst in the league and appealing for Jacksonville's offensive game plan.
Bortles has thrown 356 passes this season, seventh-most in the league, and wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have developed into reliable options -- plus top running back T.J. Yeldon is questionable, having shed his walking boot on Tuesday. Passing appears to be the strength of the Jaguars offense, and while Bortles is more volume than efficiency, it will likely be enough. Bortles' 6.7 yards per attempt averaged with the Titans' 9.3 gets an 8.0 average. For Bortles to hit 259 yards at an 8.0 per attempt average, he needs 33 pass attempts, something he's done in eight out of nine games this season.
The play: Over
21.5 completions by Marcus Mariota (-110 O/U)
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</article>John Parolin: Marcus Mariota is going to have to pass in this game, if only because the Jaguars stop the run better than anyone else. Jacksonville is first in defensive efficiency on rushing plays this season, and opposing rushers are averaging 3.3 yards per rush against the Jaguars, almost a quarter of a yard better than any other defense. Given that Tennessee this season is averaging a shade fewer than 4.0 yards per rush (3.99), they're hardly the unstoppable force needed to match Jacksonville's immovable rush defense.
But there are reasons Mariota can succeed beside simply the impending failure of his rushing game. Jacksonville is allowing 25.2 completions per game this season, fourth-most in the league. They've allowed at least 22 to six of their nine opposing quarterbacks, including Brian Hoyer, Matt Hasselbeck and EJ Manuel. Considering Mariota's season average is 21.0 in seven games (including the Bills and Panthers defenses), the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Jaguars defense make this a good over bet.
The play: Over
ESPN INSIDER[/h]
Week 11 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley, Wunderdog and Erin Rynning are here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday.
Total: Opened 44; now 42
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Dave Tuley: The spread looks about right with these teams being fairly equal. Jacksonville is 3-6 and Tennessee is 2-7. The Titans' offense averages 5.3 yards per play, the Jaguars 5.2. The Jaguars' defense allows 5.3 yards per play, the Titans 5.4. So with Jacksonville at home, it makes sense it's favored by three points. Instead, let's look at the over/under.
The Jaguars are 6-3 with the over while the Titans are 5-4, yet this total is still priced pretty low. Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee offense, which let us down last week, should have more success against Jacksonville's No. 19 defense, and the Jaguars had four straight overs before staying under in their 22-20 upset of Baltimore on Sunday. Blake Bortles has the offense clicking with the two Allens (Hurns and Robinson), so I'm looking for a Thursday night shootout.
ATS pick: Over 43.
Erin Rynning: The Titans failed to follow up their debut win for interim head coach Mike Mularkey, losing to the Panthers last week 27-10. However, I still view the change at the top a step in the right direction, as his predecessor Ken Whisenhunt left much to be desired. Mularkey has tweaked his offensive line and the offense to better fit the potential of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars stole a win on the road last week in Baltimore, although they were out-gained by just under 150 yards and 2.2 yards per play. Jacksonville is now showing life with three straight spread covers, however it has faced an extremely weak slate of offensive teams. Expect a step forward from the Titans offense, and any value lingers with them at plus-3.
ATS pick: Titans + 3
Wunderdog: Coming off its surprise win over Baltimore, Jacksonville is favored. But this is a tough situational spot for them. The Jaguars are on short rest and just finished a grueling stretch playing five of the past seven on the road. Jacksonville doesn't have much offense, ranked 22nd in the NFL in yards and 23rd in points scored. And the Jacksonville defense is worse, ranked 30th in the league in points allowed at 28.3 a game.
The Jags have a losing home record and are 8-19-1 ATS in their past 28 home games. Rookie running back T.J. Yeldon was in a walking boot Monday and missed practice Tuesday. He might play but is not 100 percent. Tennessee's Marcus Mariota set an NFL rookie record for the most touchdown passes through eight games (13). The Titans defense ranks fifth in the league with 27 sacks and have permitted the third-fewest passing yards (213.8) per game. Take the points in this one.
ATS pick: Titans + 3
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]258.5 pass yards by Blake Bortles (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: Blake Bortles will have the benefit of facing a pretty banged-up Titans secondary. Cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Blidi Wreh-Wilson won't be playing, while Perrish Cox is recovering from a hamstring injury. In the past two games (without McCourty, the biggest piece of the Tennessee secondary), the Titans have allowed 9.3 yards per attempt to Drew Brees and Cam Newton. Brees is Brees, but for all his success this year, Newton is hardly considered an efficient passer. Tennessee's 7.6 yards per attempt average over the first six games wasn't good in its own right, ranking 23rd in the league. But the Titans' 9.3 yards per attempt average without McCourty is disastrous, the fourth-worst in the league and appealing for Jacksonville's offensive game plan.
Bortles has thrown 356 passes this season, seventh-most in the league, and wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have developed into reliable options -- plus top running back T.J. Yeldon is questionable, having shed his walking boot on Tuesday. Passing appears to be the strength of the Jaguars offense, and while Bortles is more volume than efficiency, it will likely be enough. Bortles' 6.7 yards per attempt averaged with the Titans' 9.3 gets an 8.0 average. For Bortles to hit 259 yards at an 8.0 per attempt average, he needs 33 pass attempts, something he's done in eight out of nine games this season.
The play: Over
21.5 completions by Marcus Mariota (-110 O/U)
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</article>John Parolin: Marcus Mariota is going to have to pass in this game, if only because the Jaguars stop the run better than anyone else. Jacksonville is first in defensive efficiency on rushing plays this season, and opposing rushers are averaging 3.3 yards per rush against the Jaguars, almost a quarter of a yard better than any other defense. Given that Tennessee this season is averaging a shade fewer than 4.0 yards per rush (3.99), they're hardly the unstoppable force needed to match Jacksonville's immovable rush defense.
But there are reasons Mariota can succeed beside simply the impending failure of his rushing game. Jacksonville is allowing 25.2 completions per game this season, fourth-most in the league. They've allowed at least 22 to six of their nine opposing quarterbacks, including Brian Hoyer, Matt Hasselbeck and EJ Manuel. Considering Mariota's season average is 21.0 in seven games (including the Bills and Panthers defenses), the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Jaguars defense make this a good over bet.
The play: Over
