[h=1]How to bet Cincinnati-Arizona[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 11 has arrived and includes a Sunday night matchup between the Bengals and Cardinals. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals atArizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Opened Arizona -3; now Arizona -4.5
Total: Opened 48; now 49
[h=2]Against the spread[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: Both of these teams have been popular with bettors this season, and the Bengals are 7-1-1 ATS while the Cardinals are 6-3 ATS. Arizona has been the more public team, and that probably only increased after its 39-32 win in Seattle, while Cincinnati lost as a double-digit favorite to Houston in prime time on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also jumped on the Cardinals here as the line opened Arizona -3 at most Vegas books. It has definitely leveled off since then.
Tuley's take: It's tempting to take the previously undefeated Bengals getting this many points, but a team losing after a long winning streak will often have a letdown. Besides, the Cardinals are hard to fade as they have the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense in yards per game. Instead, I'll look to the over/under, as I believe the Bengals' No. 11 defense can contain the Arizona attack. With the Cardinals 7-2 to the over (Bengals are 5-4), I think this total has been set a little too high, especially as this can be seen as a statement game for both teams, so I expect the defenses to step up and keep the final score lower than expected.
The pick: under 48.5 (pool play: Cardinals)
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Erin Rynning: I recommended a play to the over in last week's Sunday night game, which cashed with this Cardinals team's high-scoring win against the Seahawks. I'll stay with the same thought process looking for another scoring fest in this one. The Cardinals put up 39 points last week in Seattle, and there was nothing fluky about it with 30 first downs and over 600 yards of all-purpose yardage. Carson Palmer continues to excel with plenty of weapons and the Bruce Arians downfield attack. Meanwhile, the Bengals finally stumbled last week with their first loss of the campaign, a 10-6 defeat to the lowly Houston Texans.
However, it's been their much-improved and consistent offense that has keyed their 8-1 start. With their ability to run and throw the football behind a stellar offensive line, it will prove difficult shutting this offense down two weeks running. Again, I'll play the over on Sunday night.
The pick: over
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]4.5 combined sacks by both teams (-110 O/U)
Palmer and Andy Dalton have done a terrific job of not taking sacks this season (with credit to their offensive lines as well). Five combined sacks in a game really isn't all that much (consider that a 5.5 total sacks prop in a Week 7 49ers-Seahawks game ended up at 11), but stacking up each quarterback's nine games this season shows just how sack-adverse they've been.
Dalton especially excels at getting the ball out quickly. He has averaged 2.19 seconds before the pass this season, the second-fastest release in the league behind Tom Brady. Palmer has been faster to release the ball this year than he was last year, and his 2.23-second time in pocket average is ninth lowest in the league. Both of these veteran quarterbacks rank in the top nine in fewest sacks taken per game, with a 1.6 and 1.7 average adding up to well short of the five needed to hit the over.
The play: under
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 11 has arrived and includes a Sunday night matchup between the Bengals and Cardinals. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 48; now 49
[h=2]Against the spread[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: Both of these teams have been popular with bettors this season, and the Bengals are 7-1-1 ATS while the Cardinals are 6-3 ATS. Arizona has been the more public team, and that probably only increased after its 39-32 win in Seattle, while Cincinnati lost as a double-digit favorite to Houston in prime time on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also jumped on the Cardinals here as the line opened Arizona -3 at most Vegas books. It has definitely leveled off since then.
Tuley's take: It's tempting to take the previously undefeated Bengals getting this many points, but a team losing after a long winning streak will often have a letdown. Besides, the Cardinals are hard to fade as they have the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense in yards per game. Instead, I'll look to the over/under, as I believe the Bengals' No. 11 defense can contain the Arizona attack. With the Cardinals 7-2 to the over (Bengals are 5-4), I think this total has been set a little too high, especially as this can be seen as a statement game for both teams, so I expect the defenses to step up and keep the final score lower than expected.
The pick: under 48.5 (pool play: Cardinals)
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Erin Rynning: I recommended a play to the over in last week's Sunday night game, which cashed with this Cardinals team's high-scoring win against the Seahawks. I'll stay with the same thought process looking for another scoring fest in this one. The Cardinals put up 39 points last week in Seattle, and there was nothing fluky about it with 30 first downs and over 600 yards of all-purpose yardage. Carson Palmer continues to excel with plenty of weapons and the Bruce Arians downfield attack. Meanwhile, the Bengals finally stumbled last week with their first loss of the campaign, a 10-6 defeat to the lowly Houston Texans.
However, it's been their much-improved and consistent offense that has keyed their 8-1 start. With their ability to run and throw the football behind a stellar offensive line, it will prove difficult shutting this offense down two weeks running. Again, I'll play the over on Sunday night.
The pick: over
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]4.5 combined sacks by both teams (-110 O/U)
Palmer and Andy Dalton have done a terrific job of not taking sacks this season (with credit to their offensive lines as well). Five combined sacks in a game really isn't all that much (consider that a 5.5 total sacks prop in a Week 7 49ers-Seahawks game ended up at 11), but stacking up each quarterback's nine games this season shows just how sack-adverse they've been.
Dalton especially excels at getting the ball out quickly. He has averaged 2.19 seconds before the pass this season, the second-fastest release in the league behind Tom Brady. Palmer has been faster to release the ball this year than he was last year, and his 2.23-second time in pocket average is ninth lowest in the league. Both of these veteran quarterbacks rank in the top nine in fewest sacks taken per game, with a 1.6 and 1.7 average adding up to well short of the five needed to hit the over.
The play: under
