[h=1]How to bet Buffalo-New England[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis on Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: opened New England -7.5; now New England -7
Total: opened 49.5; now 48
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: The Patriots keep rolling along, and even a non-cover against the Giants can't keep the public from lining up to bet on them.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: People jumped early on the Bills plus-7.5 and plus-8 when the lines opened last Sunday. There probably are some who are happy to lay New England minus-7, but expect more buyback if/when we see more 7.5s pop up again.
Tuley's take: The Bills are more appealing if the lines goes back to minus-7.5, but I feel the stronger play is under 48.5 points (which also would benefit the Bills' chances). The Patriots aren't the over team that many assume them to be, as they're just 4-4-1 with over/unders and now they're without Julian Edelmanand Dion Lewis as well as battling injuries on the offensive line. The Patriots won the first meeting 40-32 in Buffalo (another reason I'll probably still pass on the Bills plus the points), but I expect this will be a tighter game with Buffalo trying to stay in the wild-card chase.
The pick: Under 48.5
Wunderdog: The Patriots remain perfect at 9-0 as Tom Brady did what he does so well last week, engineering yet another game-winning drive, this time against the Giants. If this game goes like the last three Patriots Monday Night affairs in Foxboro, the Bills are in trouble, as New England has won by a combined score of 121-20. The Pats are winning their games by an average of 15 points per game, and I think the oddsmakers have adjusted this one too much for the loss of Julian Edelman.
New England is often over-valued on the line, but at home to a line of less than minus-7.5 the last three years, New England is 11-2 ATS. This has not been a favorable matchup for the Bills, who are 2-22 straight-up in the last 24 meetings and just 8-15-1 ATS. Lay the touchdown on New England.
ATS pick: Patriots -7
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]5.0 combined sacks by both teams (Over EVEN, Under -120)
John Parolin: Given Tom Brady's release time (2.13 seconds before pass, fastest in the league), Tyrod Taylor will clearly have to do the heavy lifting here to hit the over. That's not impossible, either -- Taylor was sacked eight times against the Patriots in Week 2. Coach Bill Belichick has feasted on inexperienced opposition with the Patriots, but eight sacks is obviously a little ambitious.
What is Belichick's track record against rookie quarterbacks? Though Taylor isn't a rookie, his inexperience as a starter before this season can justify starting with the rookies as a benchmark. Belichick has faced 17 rookie starters in the last 15 years, and his defenses have sacked those rookies at least four times in a game only four times -- and two were Geno Smith. For this prop to hit the over, four from Taylor seems like the bare minimum, and given he was already exploited in Week 2, it makes sense that the Bills would take steps to prevent that from happening again.
The play: Under
308.5 pass yards by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
John Parolin: If Brady had Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, this almost certainly wouldn't be a pick 'em. Brady's averaging 338.1 yards per game this season and over 308.5 in six of his nine contests. But Brady doesn't -- Edelman's out for six to eight weeks after breaking a bone in his foot, and Lewis' knee injury shelved him for the rest of the year. Given the chemistry Brady had with both, it's difficult to assume Brady will continue to roll over defenses to the degree he did. Besides, Brady's not exactly going to sneak up on Rex Ryan. Brady and Ryan have faced off 14 times including the playoffs since Ryan became the Jets head coach in 2009.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>How did those games break down? Brady hit the over in only six of the 14, including this year's Week 2 game when Brady racked up 466 yards against the Bills. That was the most by any quarterback against the Bills in team history, but the losses since then aren't just Edelman and Lewis. Starting left tackle Nate Solder is lost for the year as well. No team in the league has used more different offensive line combinations than the Patriots, and Brady's been fine, but there's too much talent on the Buffalo defense to allow another big day. Given Ryan's ability to at least hinder Brady and the injury bug that's plagued the New England offense, count on Brady coming up short.
The play: Under
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis on Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: opened 49.5; now 48
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: The Patriots keep rolling along, and even a non-cover against the Giants can't keep the public from lining up to bet on them.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: People jumped early on the Bills plus-7.5 and plus-8 when the lines opened last Sunday. There probably are some who are happy to lay New England minus-7, but expect more buyback if/when we see more 7.5s pop up again.
Tuley's take: The Bills are more appealing if the lines goes back to minus-7.5, but I feel the stronger play is under 48.5 points (which also would benefit the Bills' chances). The Patriots aren't the over team that many assume them to be, as they're just 4-4-1 with over/unders and now they're without Julian Edelmanand Dion Lewis as well as battling injuries on the offensive line. The Patriots won the first meeting 40-32 in Buffalo (another reason I'll probably still pass on the Bills plus the points), but I expect this will be a tighter game with Buffalo trying to stay in the wild-card chase.
The pick: Under 48.5
Wunderdog: The Patriots remain perfect at 9-0 as Tom Brady did what he does so well last week, engineering yet another game-winning drive, this time against the Giants. If this game goes like the last three Patriots Monday Night affairs in Foxboro, the Bills are in trouble, as New England has won by a combined score of 121-20. The Pats are winning their games by an average of 15 points per game, and I think the oddsmakers have adjusted this one too much for the loss of Julian Edelman.
New England is often over-valued on the line, but at home to a line of less than minus-7.5 the last three years, New England is 11-2 ATS. This has not been a favorable matchup for the Bills, who are 2-22 straight-up in the last 24 meetings and just 8-15-1 ATS. Lay the touchdown on New England.
ATS pick: Patriots -7
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]5.0 combined sacks by both teams (Over EVEN, Under -120)
John Parolin: Given Tom Brady's release time (2.13 seconds before pass, fastest in the league), Tyrod Taylor will clearly have to do the heavy lifting here to hit the over. That's not impossible, either -- Taylor was sacked eight times against the Patriots in Week 2. Coach Bill Belichick has feasted on inexperienced opposition with the Patriots, but eight sacks is obviously a little ambitious.
What is Belichick's track record against rookie quarterbacks? Though Taylor isn't a rookie, his inexperience as a starter before this season can justify starting with the rookies as a benchmark. Belichick has faced 17 rookie starters in the last 15 years, and his defenses have sacked those rookies at least four times in a game only four times -- and two were Geno Smith. For this prop to hit the over, four from Taylor seems like the bare minimum, and given he was already exploited in Week 2, it makes sense that the Bills would take steps to prevent that from happening again.
The play: Under
308.5 pass yards by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
John Parolin: If Brady had Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, this almost certainly wouldn't be a pick 'em. Brady's averaging 338.1 yards per game this season and over 308.5 in six of his nine contests. But Brady doesn't -- Edelman's out for six to eight weeks after breaking a bone in his foot, and Lewis' knee injury shelved him for the rest of the year. Given the chemistry Brady had with both, it's difficult to assume Brady will continue to roll over defenses to the degree he did. Besides, Brady's not exactly going to sneak up on Rex Ryan. Brady and Ryan have faced off 14 times including the playoffs since Ryan became the Jets head coach in 2009.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>How did those games break down? Brady hit the over in only six of the 14, including this year's Week 2 game when Brady racked up 466 yards against the Bills. That was the most by any quarterback against the Bills in team history, but the losses since then aren't just Edelman and Lewis. Starting left tackle Nate Solder is lost for the year as well. No team in the league has used more different offensive line combinations than the Patriots, and Brady's been fine, but there's too much talent on the Buffalo defense to allow another big day. Given Ryan's ability to at least hinder Brady and the injury bug that's plagued the New England offense, count on Brady coming up short.
The play: Under
