[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 13[/h]David Solar, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
It's not a new or particularly novel idea: Win the turnover battle in an NFL game and you're far more likely to come out on top.
The 11-0 Carolina Panthers lead the league in turnover differential, while the 10-1 New England Patriots owe their long-term success to avoiding costly mistakes. Winning the turnover battle provides teams with additional opportunities to score, yet bettors still don't properly value teams that avoid damaging fumbles or interceptions.
The cliché "the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game" exists for a reason. Since 2003, teams with fewer turnovers in games have gone 2,147-564-4 straight up -- a win rate of nearly 80 percent. While defenses that cause turnovers are typically well respected (i.e., Seattle or Arizona), there is not much love for offenses that hold onto the football (i.e. Kansas City or Minnesota). Many have argued that fumbles lost is a statistic based more in luck than skill, but is that true?
We love to disprove these widely held theories, and this week's contrarian system examines the success of teams that have minimized turnovers. As the season progresses and inclement weather becomes a more pressing issue, the importance of ball control is amplified. Using this hypothesis to drive our research, we created a new betting system that has covered the spread in more than two-thirds of all past matches.
Our Bet Labs software found that teams that had not committed a fumble in their previous game had gone 759-726 against the spread (51.1 percent). When they had avoided losing a fumble in two consecutive games, that record improved to 208-146 ATS (58.8 percent).<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
This confirmed our initial theory. Digging deeper, we discovered when a team did not throw an interception in its previous game, our win rate improved from 58.8 percent to 64.3 percent. When we narrow our focus once more and examine games played during the second half of the season (Week 9 or later), that winning percentage ticks up to 67.0 percent.
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ESPN INSIDER
It's not a new or particularly novel idea: Win the turnover battle in an NFL game and you're far more likely to come out on top.
The 11-0 Carolina Panthers lead the league in turnover differential, while the 10-1 New England Patriots owe their long-term success to avoiding costly mistakes. Winning the turnover battle provides teams with additional opportunities to score, yet bettors still don't properly value teams that avoid damaging fumbles or interceptions.
The cliché "the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game" exists for a reason. Since 2003, teams with fewer turnovers in games have gone 2,147-564-4 straight up -- a win rate of nearly 80 percent. While defenses that cause turnovers are typically well respected (i.e., Seattle or Arizona), there is not much love for offenses that hold onto the football (i.e. Kansas City or Minnesota). Many have argued that fumbles lost is a statistic based more in luck than skill, but is that true?
We love to disprove these widely held theories, and this week's contrarian system examines the success of teams that have minimized turnovers. As the season progresses and inclement weather becomes a more pressing issue, the importance of ball control is amplified. Using this hypothesis to drive our research, we created a new betting system that has covered the spread in more than two-thirds of all past matches.
Our Bet Labs software found that teams that had not committed a fumble in their previous game had gone 759-726 against the spread (51.1 percent). When they had avoided losing a fumble in two consecutive games, that record improved to 208-146 ATS (58.8 percent).<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
This confirmed our initial theory. Digging deeper, we discovered when a team did not throw an interception in its previous game, our win rate improved from 58.8 percent to 64.3 percent. When we narrow our focus once more and examine games played during the second half of the season (Week 9 or later), that winning percentage ticks up to 67.0 percent.
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CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
---|---|---|---|
No fumble in 2 straight games | 208-146 (58.8%) | +54.54 | +15.4% |
No fumble in 2 straight, No INT last game | 99-55 (64.3%) | +40.36 | +26.2% |
No fumble in 2 straight, No INT last game, Wk 9+ | 65-32 (67.0%) | +32.80 | +36.0% |
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |