[h=1]How to bet Green Bay-Detroit[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Week 13 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning are here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions[/h]Spread: Opened Green Bay -3.5; now Green Bay -3
Total: Opened 47; now 47
Dave Tuley: These teams met just three weeks ago at Lambeau Field and I was fortunately<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> on the Lions +10.5 when they picked up their first win of the season. I've said for a long time that the Packers weren't as good as their record and that's caught up with them. I'm not a handicapper that puts much stock in "revenge" and actually prefer to take underdogs that won a previous meeting, but in this case, getting +3 is too short of a price for me to take Detroit again. Instead, I'll look at the under.</offer>
The Packers' offense is just No. 25 in average yards per game and this team that is a very popular over play is actually 8-3 with the under this year. The Lions are 6-5 to the over, including their Thanksgiving win over the Eagles, but they turned around their season with the 18-16 win in Green Bay and an 18-13 win over the Raiders the next week. That's the type of game I expect in this rematch.
The play: Under 47.
Erin Rynning: The Packers continue to stumble off their Thanksgiving night loss against the Chicago Bears on their home turf, and have dropped four of five. Obviously trips to Carolina and Denver shook this team's confidence, but their dominating win against Minnesota still proved this team's class. I expect a strong performance from the Packers here as they make the proper adjustments after their earlier loss against the Lions. Vital for this offense is the running game, which has resurfaced the past two weeks by garnering 301 yards on 62 carries.
The Lions look the part of a rejuvenated team with three straight wins, but beating Oakland and a Philadelphia team that's quit (both at home) is far from a big deal. The bottom line is the Packers can gain more than this Lions team on the ground, plus they have the better quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Look for Green Bay to make amends. Lay the points on Thursday night.
ATS pick: Packers -3
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=2]22.5 completions by Aaron Rodgers (-110 O/U)[/h]Rodgers hit the over on this in a big way in Week 10, thanks to throwing 61 passes in an 18-16 loss to the Lions. Is Rodgers going to throw the ball 61 times again? It's highly doubtful, but he's still going to throw it, if for no other reason than it's the best way to attack Detroit's defense. The Lions have allowed a 68.8 completion percentage this season, third worst in the league, but are allowing less than 4.0 yards per rush this season. Rodgers connected on only 57.4 percent of his throws in that Week 10 game, and that was the second-lowest completion percentage allowed by the Lions in a game this season.
The Packers drop back to pass on 64.5 percent of plays from scrimmage, 10th in the league, while only the Browns pass more often than the Lions. Considering neither defense is a shutdown unit against the pass (both rank outside the top 20 in yards per attempt), plenty of offense can be expected. However, the chunk yardage hasn't been there for Green Bay this year, which ranks outside the top seven in 30-yard plays for the first time since 2005 (three years before Rodgers was starting). Rodgers may need to be more methodical with his drives -- and Detroit's high completion percentage allowed reflects that strategy could be successful.
The play: Over
[h=2]265.5 pass yards by Matthew Stafford (-110 O/U)[/h]Stafford wasn't messing around on Thanksgiving, throwing for 337 yards and five touchdowns against an inept Eagles defense, with the most promising development possibly being the resurgence of Calvin Johnson. Johnson hauled in eight catches for 93 yards and three touchdowns on 14 targets (his second most this season).
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</article>The Lions changed offensive coordinators at the end of October, and they've now played four games with new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. Stafford's passing yardage totals in those games are (in chronological order): 195 at Chiefs, 242 at Packers, 266 vs. Raiders and 322 vs. Eagles. There's a trend there, even more so when considering the Chiefs game was the first with a new coordinator on the road against a good defense just starting a hot streak. He put up 242 at Lambeau Field in a game Detroit led for the final 28:33, making passing a little less likely. He followed it up with two "overs" at home, a trend that should continue Sunday -- especially if Rodgers is a little more effective with his own passing game.
The play: Over
ESPN INSIDER
Week 13 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning are here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 47; now 47
Dave Tuley: These teams met just three weeks ago at Lambeau Field and I was fortunately<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> on the Lions +10.5 when they picked up their first win of the season. I've said for a long time that the Packers weren't as good as their record and that's caught up with them. I'm not a handicapper that puts much stock in "revenge" and actually prefer to take underdogs that won a previous meeting, but in this case, getting +3 is too short of a price for me to take Detroit again. Instead, I'll look at the under.</offer>
The Packers' offense is just No. 25 in average yards per game and this team that is a very popular over play is actually 8-3 with the under this year. The Lions are 6-5 to the over, including their Thanksgiving win over the Eagles, but they turned around their season with the 18-16 win in Green Bay and an 18-13 win over the Raiders the next week. That's the type of game I expect in this rematch.
The play: Under 47.
Erin Rynning: The Packers continue to stumble off their Thanksgiving night loss against the Chicago Bears on their home turf, and have dropped four of five. Obviously trips to Carolina and Denver shook this team's confidence, but their dominating win against Minnesota still proved this team's class. I expect a strong performance from the Packers here as they make the proper adjustments after their earlier loss against the Lions. Vital for this offense is the running game, which has resurfaced the past two weeks by garnering 301 yards on 62 carries.
The Lions look the part of a rejuvenated team with three straight wins, but beating Oakland and a Philadelphia team that's quit (both at home) is far from a big deal. The bottom line is the Packers can gain more than this Lions team on the ground, plus they have the better quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Look for Green Bay to make amends. Lay the points on Thursday night.
ATS pick: Packers -3
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=2]22.5 completions by Aaron Rodgers (-110 O/U)[/h]Rodgers hit the over on this in a big way in Week 10, thanks to throwing 61 passes in an 18-16 loss to the Lions. Is Rodgers going to throw the ball 61 times again? It's highly doubtful, but he's still going to throw it, if for no other reason than it's the best way to attack Detroit's defense. The Lions have allowed a 68.8 completion percentage this season, third worst in the league, but are allowing less than 4.0 yards per rush this season. Rodgers connected on only 57.4 percent of his throws in that Week 10 game, and that was the second-lowest completion percentage allowed by the Lions in a game this season.
The Packers drop back to pass on 64.5 percent of plays from scrimmage, 10th in the league, while only the Browns pass more often than the Lions. Considering neither defense is a shutdown unit against the pass (both rank outside the top 20 in yards per attempt), plenty of offense can be expected. However, the chunk yardage hasn't been there for Green Bay this year, which ranks outside the top seven in 30-yard plays for the first time since 2005 (three years before Rodgers was starting). Rodgers may need to be more methodical with his drives -- and Detroit's high completion percentage allowed reflects that strategy could be successful.
The play: Over
[h=2]265.5 pass yards by Matthew Stafford (-110 O/U)[/h]Stafford wasn't messing around on Thanksgiving, throwing for 337 yards and five touchdowns against an inept Eagles defense, with the most promising development possibly being the resurgence of Calvin Johnson. Johnson hauled in eight catches for 93 yards and three touchdowns on 14 targets (his second most this season).
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</article>The Lions changed offensive coordinators at the end of October, and they've now played four games with new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. Stafford's passing yardage totals in those games are (in chronological order): 195 at Chiefs, 242 at Packers, 266 vs. Raiders and 322 vs. Eagles. There's a trend there, even more so when considering the Chiefs game was the first with a new coordinator on the road against a good defense just starting a hot streak. He put up 242 at Lambeau Field in a game Detroit led for the final 28:33, making passing a little less likely. He followed it up with two "overs" at home, a trend that should continue Sunday -- especially if Rodgers is a little more effective with his own passing game.
The play: Over
