College Football Playoff Scenarios: Ohio State, Stanford Face Long Odds

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[h=2]College Football Playoff Scenarios: Ohio State, Stanford Face Long Odds[/h]by Nicholas Goss on Fri, Dec 4, 2015 at 9:04AM


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The final week of the college football regular season is upon us, and the potential for chaos ahead of the last playoff rankings has set the stage for an exciting weekend.
The College Football Playoff committee could have to work overtime Saturday if upsets change the landscape of the sport. As many as seven or eight teams have the potential to impress the committee enough to earn a top four spot, which would ensure a place in the playoff.
Here’s the top 10 entering conference championship week.
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Let’s take a look at how each of the eight teams with some kind of chance to make the playoff can secure a spot — Notre Dame and Florida State probably are the only top 10 teams with no shot. The final rankings are unveiled Dec. 6 and the playoff begins with semifinal matchups on New Year’s Eve.
No. 1: Clemson Tigers
The Tigers have occupied the top spot in the playoff rankings for most of the season and likely will be the No. 1-ranked team with a win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game. A win guarantees them a spot, but a lackluster victory could drop them to No. 2 depending on Alabama’s result against the Florida Gators in the SEC title game. A blowout win for the Crimson Tide and a narrow escape for the Tigers could vault Alabama to No. 1.
No. 2: Alabama Crimson Tide
Win and you’re in. It’s that simple for Alabama. Its path to No. 1 is outlined above, but a loss could really complicate things.
The Crimson Tide have been the best team in the nation since the end of September, and they play in arguably the toughest conference, with several double-digit wins over quality opponents. But a second loss opens the door for the committee to drop them to fifth or sixth, which could allow the Big Ten champion (Michigan State or Iowa), Ohio State or maybe Stanford to jump ahead of Alabama.
There’s really no way Alabama could remain in the playoff with another defeat. Oklahoma at No. 3 should be a lock and the Sooners finished their regular-season schedule with a road win over a ranked Oklahoma State team last week. The Big Ten champion will be in the top four, whether it’s 13-0 Iowa or 12-1 Michigan State.
You could make strong argument that a two-loss Alabama team would beat any Big Ten or Pac-12 school on a neutral field, but the committee isn’t likely to keep the Crimson Tide in the top four if no other upsets happen. In the committee’s official selection protocol, winning conference championships is strongly considered.
No. 3: Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma wrapped up the Big 12 championship last week and is idle Saturday because there’s no Big 12 championship game. The committee would look really bad if it dropped the Sooners outside the top four when it vaulted them up several spots in the current rankings after beating Oklahoma State.
No. 4: Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa played an incredibly soft schedule and didn’t have to face Ohio State, Michigan State or Michigan until the conference title game. A win secures the Hawkeyes a spot, but a loss knocks them out completely.
No. 5: Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have road wins over Michigan and Ohio State, and a victory over Iowa to clinch the Big Ten title would give them a playoff spot. A loss probably eliminates them from contention unless all of the team ahead of them and Stanford lose.
No. 6: Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes need help to reach the playoff. Alabama and/or Clemson would have to lose. The Tigers losing probably helps Ohio State more, though, because the Buckeyes would have a better resume if both are one-loss teams. In fact, the Buckeyes probably would be the best one-loss team (excluding Oklahoma) if chaos ensues.
A blowout win for Michigan State over Iowa would help Ohio State because the Spartans were the only team to beat the Buckeyes. Stanford losing also would be a major help for Ohio State because the Cardinal wouldn’t have the conference champion achievement on their resume.
It also should be noted that Ohio State is the defending champion and a huge national draw. Don’t be surprised if those factors play a role if Alabama and Clemson lose.
No. 7: Stanford Cardinal
Winning the Pac-12 title game over USC by a huge margin would give Stanford a chance, but it needs losses from multiple teams in the top five to have a realistic shot. Even in that scenario, a case could be made that a one-loss Clemson team is more deserving. The most likely finish for the Cardinal is fifth or sixth.
No. 10: North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC needs a convincing win over No. 1 Clemson in the ACC title game and multiple teams ranked ahead of it to lose for any chance of securing a playoff spot. Alabama and Stanford certainly would need to lose. If Clemson, Alabama and Stanford were defeated, then Oklahoma, the Big Ten champion and Ohio State probably would get in, leaving a single spot for the Big Ten title game loser (if it’s MSU), a one-loss Clemson team and maybe North Carolina.
It’s a long shot, but there’s still an outside chance for the Tar Heels. The conversation doesn’t begin unless they beat Clemson, though.
Thumbnail photo via John Reed/USA TODAY Sports Images
Have a Bruins/NHL question for Nick Goss? Send it to him via Twitter at @NickGossNESN
 

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do not agree that stanford has to lose for NC to sneak in.
a 20 pt win over #1 clemson and a Florida win and they are in not 2 loss stanford
 

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