[h=1]Week 14 early NFL line moves[/h]
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 15 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- If you've been checking out these "Opening Line Report" columns each Sunday night, hopefully you have a better understanding of how the sports betting market adjusts, particularly with how the NFL lines evolve from week to week.
It's not rocket science. The advance lines (as we explain above, we're using the ones that are referred to here in Vegas as the Westgate SuperBook's "12-day lines") get taken down on Sunday mornings and the following week's lines are reposted after the day's action right around 4:30 p.m. PT. Basically, if the two teams perform as expected (either both winning or both losing, or with results that are pretty close to the point spreads), that game's line will be about the same.
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If one team wins and the other loses, the line will move toward the team with the better result (and the more lopsided the results, the more the adjustment will tend to be). For instance, last week, the Westgate had Arizona as a six-point favorite against Minnesota for their Thursday night battle to kick off Week 14. The Cardinals routed the Rams 27-3 while the Vikings were routed 38-7 by the Seahawks, so the Westgate reopened this game at Arizona minus-8.5 (note: other books didn't go that far and it looks like the line is settling in at minus-7 or minus-7.5).
In another example, Kansas City was minus-8.5 over San Diego on the advance line and the Chiefs pulled away to beat the Raiders 34-30 on Sunday (for their sixth straight win and cover, by the way) while the Chargers lost 17-3 to the Broncos. The Westgate inflated the line to Kansas City minus-10.5. Other books were dealing a 10-point spread, but by halftime of the Sunday night game, the Westgate was holding the line at minus-10.5.
Now, there are exceptions. Buffalo was a 1-point road favorite at Philadelphia on the advance line and both teams won and covered on Sunday, so that would usually mean the line would stay about the same. However, the oddsmakers and early bettors were obviously more impressed with the Eagles' 35-28 upset of the Patriots as nine-point underdogs (and plus-360 on the money line) than the Bills' 30-21 win over the Texans as three-point favorites, so the Westgate made a change of favorites and reopened the line at Philadelphia. Other books (including the offshore giant Pinnacle and the William Hill and CG Technology books here in Nevada) opened even higher at Philly minus-2 or minus-2.5 and that's where the line was heading early Sunday night.
There was one game that was left off the betting boards on Sunday afternoon/night. Baltimore's Matt Schaub suffered a concussion at Miami, so oddsmakers will wait to see what happens there. The Westgate's advance line had Seattle as a 4.5-point road favorite so that will likely be higher.
Here's a look at some other adjustment from last week's advance lines or early wagering on Sunday night:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: This was off the board last week with Ben Roethlisberger going through the league's concussion protocol, but he was cleared later in the week and after the Bengals' 37-3 rout of Cleveland on Sunday, the line was opened at Cincinnati minus-3.5. This could be further impacted by what happens in the Colts-Steelers game being played as this is written.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: This was Carolina minus-8 last week and reopened at minus-8 after the Panthers beat the Saints 41-38 to stay undefeated and the Falcons lost 23-19 to the Buccaneers. But the first bets came in on the underdog and it was lowered to minus-7.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns: Cleveland was favored by a full field goal last week at minus-3, but after getting blown out by the Bengals and the 49ers beating the Bears 26-20 in overtime, this was lowered to minus-2 and early support for San Francisco lowered it to minus-1.5. Some books are already at pick 'em and it wouldn't be shocking to see a change of favorite here.
Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams: This was St. Louis minus-2 last week and it's a little surprising that it was only lowered to minus-1 considering the Lions nearly beat the Packers on Thursday night (though they ended up not covering) and the Rams were blown out 27-3 by the Cardinals. In addition, Case Keenumis expected to be back in the starting lineup for St. Louis. This is another game where we could see a change of favorite.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville was minus-1 last week at the Westgate and lost 42-39 at Tennessee to push as a 3-point underdog. The line was lowered to pick 'em. Most books didn't post an opener yet with Indianapolis playing Sunday night. We'll see the line looks in the morning.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Denver was minus-6.5 last week but after beating San Diego 17-3 and Oakland losing 34-20 to Kansas City, the Westgate bumped it up to Denver minus-7. Most other books went with 7.5 (with the CRIS offshore book opting for -8) and that's where it looks like the line was settling on Sunday night.
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<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 14 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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</tbody></aside>Note: Home teams in CAPS. The first number is the Westgate's advance line from last Tuesday; the second number is the Sunday afternoon "opener"; the third number is the move as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game.
- Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 15 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- If you've been checking out these "Opening Line Report" columns each Sunday night, hopefully you have a better understanding of how the sports betting market adjusts, particularly with how the NFL lines evolve from week to week.
It's not rocket science. The advance lines (as we explain above, we're using the ones that are referred to here in Vegas as the Westgate SuperBook's "12-day lines") get taken down on Sunday mornings and the following week's lines are reposted after the day's action right around 4:30 p.m. PT. Basically, if the two teams perform as expected (either both winning or both losing, or with results that are pretty close to the point spreads), that game's line will be about the same.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
If one team wins and the other loses, the line will move toward the team with the better result (and the more lopsided the results, the more the adjustment will tend to be). For instance, last week, the Westgate had Arizona as a six-point favorite against Minnesota for their Thursday night battle to kick off Week 14. The Cardinals routed the Rams 27-3 while the Vikings were routed 38-7 by the Seahawks, so the Westgate reopened this game at Arizona minus-8.5 (note: other books didn't go that far and it looks like the line is settling in at minus-7 or minus-7.5).
In another example, Kansas City was minus-8.5 over San Diego on the advance line and the Chiefs pulled away to beat the Raiders 34-30 on Sunday (for their sixth straight win and cover, by the way) while the Chargers lost 17-3 to the Broncos. The Westgate inflated the line to Kansas City minus-10.5. Other books were dealing a 10-point spread, but by halftime of the Sunday night game, the Westgate was holding the line at minus-10.5.
Now, there are exceptions. Buffalo was a 1-point road favorite at Philadelphia on the advance line and both teams won and covered on Sunday, so that would usually mean the line would stay about the same. However, the oddsmakers and early bettors were obviously more impressed with the Eagles' 35-28 upset of the Patriots as nine-point underdogs (and plus-360 on the money line) than the Bills' 30-21 win over the Texans as three-point favorites, so the Westgate made a change of favorites and reopened the line at Philadelphia. Other books (including the offshore giant Pinnacle and the William Hill and CG Technology books here in Nevada) opened even higher at Philly minus-2 or minus-2.5 and that's where the line was heading early Sunday night.
There was one game that was left off the betting boards on Sunday afternoon/night. Baltimore's Matt Schaub suffered a concussion at Miami, so oddsmakers will wait to see what happens there. The Westgate's advance line had Seattle as a 4.5-point road favorite so that will likely be higher.
Here's a look at some other adjustment from last week's advance lines or early wagering on Sunday night:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: This was off the board last week with Ben Roethlisberger going through the league's concussion protocol, but he was cleared later in the week and after the Bengals' 37-3 rout of Cleveland on Sunday, the line was opened at Cincinnati minus-3.5. This could be further impacted by what happens in the Colts-Steelers game being played as this is written.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: This was Carolina minus-8 last week and reopened at minus-8 after the Panthers beat the Saints 41-38 to stay undefeated and the Falcons lost 23-19 to the Buccaneers. But the first bets came in on the underdog and it was lowered to minus-7.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns: Cleveland was favored by a full field goal last week at minus-3, but after getting blown out by the Bengals and the 49ers beating the Bears 26-20 in overtime, this was lowered to minus-2 and early support for San Francisco lowered it to minus-1.5. Some books are already at pick 'em and it wouldn't be shocking to see a change of favorite here.
Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams: This was St. Louis minus-2 last week and it's a little surprising that it was only lowered to minus-1 considering the Lions nearly beat the Packers on Thursday night (though they ended up not covering) and the Rams were blown out 27-3 by the Cardinals. In addition, Case Keenumis expected to be back in the starting lineup for St. Louis. This is another game where we could see a change of favorite.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville was minus-1 last week at the Westgate and lost 42-39 at Tennessee to push as a 3-point underdog. The line was lowered to pick 'em. Most books didn't post an opener yet with Indianapolis playing Sunday night. We'll see the line looks in the morning.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Denver was minus-6.5 last week but after beating San Diego 17-3 and Oakland losing 34-20 to Kansas City, the Westgate bumped it up to Denver minus-7. Most other books went with 7.5 (with the CRIS offshore book opting for -8) and that's where it looks like the line was settling on Sunday night.
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<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 14 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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| FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | ADVANCE | OPENER | MOVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Vikings | -6 | -8.5 | -7.5 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | OFF | -3.5 | |
| EAGLES | Bills | 1 | -1 | -1.5 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | -8 | -8 | -7.5 |
| BROWNS | 49ers | -3 | -2 | -1.5 |
| BEARS | Redskins | -3.5 | -3 | |
| RAMS | Lions | -2 | -1 | |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | -8.5 | -10.5 | |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | -4 | -4 | |
| JAGUARS | Colts | -1 | PK | |
| JETS | Titans | -7.5 | -7 | |
| Patriots | TEXANS | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | -6.5 | -7 | -7.5 |
| PACKERS | Cowboys | -9 | -8 | |
| Seahawks | RAVENS | -4.5 | OFF | |
| DOLPHINS | Giants | PK | -1 |
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