[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 14[/h]David Solar, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
For casual sports fans, it's only natural to root for winning teams and high-scoring games. Watching a victorious team pile up points can be a thrilling experience; however, sportsbooks understand this tendency and shade their lines accordingly.
There is a common misconception that sportsbooks always try to balance their books. The truth is that they look to exploit sports bettors' tendencies by shading favorites and overs, which has historically created value on underdogs and unders.
We have also found that the media has a strong inclination to over-hype winning teams. Square bettors will typically take these opinions as gospel, which leads to one-sided public betting on favorites. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
Public bettors habitually overreact to blowouts and winning streaks. They consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results and they love taking the league's "elite" teams.
Over the past 12 years, it would be tough to argue that any two teams have been more successful than theNew England Patriots andIndianapolis Colts. During that time, these teams have received a majority of public bets in 82.1 percent and 79.9 percent of their games, respectively. Those are the two highest rates in the league.
In order to benefit from bettor overreactions, we often recommend buying on bad news and selling on good news. Knowing that square bettors tend to overvalue the league's top teams, we theorized that large underdogs would be profitable against "elite" teams -- especially late in the season when the media is focused on playoff implications.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We started by defining "late season" as any game played from Week 14 on and opted to include all playoff games. For the purpose of this analysis, we defined teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80 percent as "elite."
We also chose to define large underdogs as any team getting at least 7.5 points. Getting that extra half-point -- commonly known as "the hook" -- is very important because 11.5 percent of all games in our database have been decided by exactly seven points.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
ESPN INSIDER
For casual sports fans, it's only natural to root for winning teams and high-scoring games. Watching a victorious team pile up points can be a thrilling experience; however, sportsbooks understand this tendency and shade their lines accordingly.
There is a common misconception that sportsbooks always try to balance their books. The truth is that they look to exploit sports bettors' tendencies by shading favorites and overs, which has historically created value on underdogs and unders.
We have also found that the media has a strong inclination to over-hype winning teams. Square bettors will typically take these opinions as gospel, which leads to one-sided public betting on favorites. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
Public bettors habitually overreact to blowouts and winning streaks. They consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results and they love taking the league's "elite" teams.
Over the past 12 years, it would be tough to argue that any two teams have been more successful than theNew England Patriots andIndianapolis Colts. During that time, these teams have received a majority of public bets in 82.1 percent and 79.9 percent of their games, respectively. Those are the two highest rates in the league.
In order to benefit from bettor overreactions, we often recommend buying on bad news and selling on good news. Knowing that square bettors tend to overvalue the league's top teams, we theorized that large underdogs would be profitable against "elite" teams -- especially late in the season when the media is focused on playoff implications.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We started by defining "late season" as any game played from Week 14 on and opted to include all playoff games. For the purpose of this analysis, we defined teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80 percent as "elite."
We also chose to define large underdogs as any team getting at least 7.5 points. Getting that extra half-point -- commonly known as "the hook" -- is very important because 11.5 percent of all games in our database have been decided by exactly seven points.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
---|---|---|---|
Late Season Underdog | 377-372 (50.3%) | -9.47 | -1.3% |
Late Season Underdog, Elite Opponent | 66-42 (61.1%) | +20.35 | +18.8% |
Late Season Underdog of 7.5+ points, Elite Opponent | 35-19 (64.8%) | +13.88 | +25.7% |
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |