[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 14[/h]David Solar, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
For casual sports fans, it's only natural to root for winning teams and high-scoring games. Watching a victorious team pile up points can be a thrilling experience; however, sportsbooks understand this tendency and shade their lines accordingly.
There is a common misconception that sportsbooks always try to balance their books. The truth is that they look to exploit sports bettors' tendencies by shading favorites and overs, which has historically created value on underdogs and unders.
We have also found that the media has a strong inclination to over-hype winning teams. Square bettors will typically take these opinions as gospel, which leads to one-sided public betting on favorites. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
Public bettors habitually overreact to blowouts and winning streaks. They consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results and they love taking the league's "elite" teams.
Over the past 12 years, it would be tough to argue that any two teams have been more successful than theNew England Patriots andIndianapolis Colts. During that time, these teams have received a majority of public bets in 82.1 percent and 79.9 percent of their games, respectively. Those are the two highest rates in the league.
In order to benefit from bettor overreactions, we often recommend buying on bad news and selling on good news. Knowing that square bettors tend to overvalue the league's top teams, we theorized that large underdogs would be profitable against "elite" teams -- especially late in the season when the media is focused on playoff implications.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We started by defining "late season" as any game played from Week 14 on and opted to include all playoff games. For the purpose of this analysis, we defined teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80 percent as "elite."
We also chose to define large underdogs as any team getting at least 7.5 points. Getting that extra half-point -- commonly known as "the hook" -- is very important because 11.5 percent of all games in our database have been decided by exactly seven points.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 14 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Why does this work?
As we explained in the introduction, bettors tend to overvalue teams that they view as elite. By focusing on teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80 percent, we are, in effect, fading teams that have three or fewer losses.
We believe that the betting public will overvalue five teams: New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina and Arizona. These top teams may win straight-up, but historically there has been value betting against them in games where they are favored by more than a touchdown.
When spread bettors are trying to determine which side they are going to pick, they first identify which team they believe is going to win the game. Time and time again, these square bettors will intuitively decide that these elite teams will not only win the game, but also cover the spread.
Oddsmakers understand this psychology and shade their opening lines and force bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. This shading creates added value for bettors willing to go against the grain and take the underdogs in these games.
Readers may also be interested to know that our Bet Labs software reveals that favorites have won 67 percent of their games straight up, but they have covered the spread in just 49.5 percent of their games.
Last week, our picks took a bad beat when Aaron Rodgers' last-second Hail Mary gave the Packers an improbable victory over the Lions. Still, our picks have gone 21-15 against the spread (58.3 percent) on the season, and we'll try to improve on those results with three Week 14 picks.
[h=2]Week 14 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Ahead of Thursday night's game, the Cardinals opened as 8.5-point favorites and have received 68 percent of early spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. Despite this overwhelming public support, Arizona has dropped from -8.5 to -7.5. This reverse line movement is an indicator that sharp money is taking the Vikings.
After losing by 31 points against Seattle, this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on Minnesota. In fact, the Vikings currently fit our Week 9 betting systemthat focuses on contrarian underdogs following a blowout loss.
Adrian Peterson rushed for a season-low 18 yards last week against the Seahawks, but we expect a strong bounce-back performance. We have also found that teams with an above-average rushing offense have been profitable in road games, so we will gladly take Minnesota and the points.
Oakland Raiders (+7.5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos opened as a seven-point home favorite in this matchup of AFC West foes, and they have received 61 percent of spread bets. In early betting, this line has been bouncing back and forth between 7 and 7.5 but bettors were able to get the hook at the time of publication.
Although there have been no steam moves or reverse line moves triggered on this game, there are a few additional factors pointing toward value on Oakland.
For starters, underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 173-137 against the spread (55.8 percent) in division games. The Raiders also fit our Week 5 betting system which highlights value on road underdogs with six or fewer wins the previous season.
Denver's defense has been phenomenal this season, but even with Brock Osweiler under center, this has not been a potent offense. In what we expect to be a very low-scoring game, the Raiders are offering tremendous value as a 7.5-point road underdog.
Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) at Carolina Panthers
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</article>Although the Panthers' perfect season almost came to an end last week against the Saints, bettors remain extremely confident. The Panthers, who opened as eight-point favorites and have received 71 percent of spread bets, have already dropped from -8 to -7.5. Once again, this reverse line movement indicates that the Falcons are receiving early sharp money.
As we mentioned in the Oakland-Denver game, underdogs have historically offered value in division games. The Falcons also fit three of this season's betting systems including our analysis from Week 5, Week 8 and Week 10.
The Falcons have lost five consecutive games, which makes them the ideal buy-low candidate. In turn, the Panthers haven't lost this season, which makes them the perfect sell-high candidate. Combine that information with our sharp money indicators and betting system matches, and the Falcons look like an excellent value this week.
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
ESPN INSIDER
For casual sports fans, it's only natural to root for winning teams and high-scoring games. Watching a victorious team pile up points can be a thrilling experience; however, sportsbooks understand this tendency and shade their lines accordingly.
There is a common misconception that sportsbooks always try to balance their books. The truth is that they look to exploit sports bettors' tendencies by shading favorites and overs, which has historically created value on underdogs and unders.
We have also found that the media has a strong inclination to over-hype winning teams. Square bettors will typically take these opinions as gospel, which leads to one-sided public betting on favorites. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
Public bettors habitually overreact to blowouts and winning streaks. They consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results and they love taking the league's "elite" teams.
Over the past 12 years, it would be tough to argue that any two teams have been more successful than theNew England Patriots andIndianapolis Colts. During that time, these teams have received a majority of public bets in 82.1 percent and 79.9 percent of their games, respectively. Those are the two highest rates in the league.
In order to benefit from bettor overreactions, we often recommend buying on bad news and selling on good news. Knowing that square bettors tend to overvalue the league's top teams, we theorized that large underdogs would be profitable against "elite" teams -- especially late in the season when the media is focused on playoff implications.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We started by defining "late season" as any game played from Week 14 on and opted to include all playoff games. For the purpose of this analysis, we defined teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80 percent as "elite."
We also chose to define large underdogs as any team getting at least 7.5 points. Getting that extra half-point -- commonly known as "the hook" -- is very important because 11.5 percent of all games in our database have been decided by exactly seven points.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late Season Underdog | 377-372 (50.3%) | -9.47 | -1.3% |
| Late Season Underdog, Elite Opponent | 66-42 (61.1%) | +20.35 | +18.8% |
| Late Season Underdog of 7.5+ points, Elite Opponent | 35-19 (64.8%) | +13.88 | +25.7% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 14 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Why does this work?
As we explained in the introduction, bettors tend to overvalue teams that they view as elite. By focusing on teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80 percent, we are, in effect, fading teams that have three or fewer losses.
We believe that the betting public will overvalue five teams: New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina and Arizona. These top teams may win straight-up, but historically there has been value betting against them in games where they are favored by more than a touchdown.
When spread bettors are trying to determine which side they are going to pick, they first identify which team they believe is going to win the game. Time and time again, these square bettors will intuitively decide that these elite teams will not only win the game, but also cover the spread.
Oddsmakers understand this psychology and shade their opening lines and force bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. This shading creates added value for bettors willing to go against the grain and take the underdogs in these games.
Readers may also be interested to know that our Bet Labs software reveals that favorites have won 67 percent of their games straight up, but they have covered the spread in just 49.5 percent of their games.
Last week, our picks took a bad beat when Aaron Rodgers' last-second Hail Mary gave the Packers an improbable victory over the Lions. Still, our picks have gone 21-15 against the spread (58.3 percent) on the season, and we'll try to improve on those results with three Week 14 picks.
[h=2]Week 14 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Ahead of Thursday night's game, the Cardinals opened as 8.5-point favorites and have received 68 percent of early spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. Despite this overwhelming public support, Arizona has dropped from -8.5 to -7.5. This reverse line movement is an indicator that sharp money is taking the Vikings.
After losing by 31 points against Seattle, this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on Minnesota. In fact, the Vikings currently fit our Week 9 betting systemthat focuses on contrarian underdogs following a blowout loss.
Adrian Peterson rushed for a season-low 18 yards last week against the Seahawks, but we expect a strong bounce-back performance. We have also found that teams with an above-average rushing offense have been profitable in road games, so we will gladly take Minnesota and the points.
Oakland Raiders (+7.5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos opened as a seven-point home favorite in this matchup of AFC West foes, and they have received 61 percent of spread bets. In early betting, this line has been bouncing back and forth between 7 and 7.5 but bettors were able to get the hook at the time of publication.
Although there have been no steam moves or reverse line moves triggered on this game, there are a few additional factors pointing toward value on Oakland.
For starters, underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 173-137 against the spread (55.8 percent) in division games. The Raiders also fit our Week 5 betting system which highlights value on road underdogs with six or fewer wins the previous season.
Denver's defense has been phenomenal this season, but even with Brock Osweiler under center, this has not been a potent offense. In what we expect to be a very low-scoring game, the Raiders are offering tremendous value as a 7.5-point road underdog.
Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) at Carolina Panthers
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</article>Although the Panthers' perfect season almost came to an end last week against the Saints, bettors remain extremely confident. The Panthers, who opened as eight-point favorites and have received 71 percent of spread bets, have already dropped from -8 to -7.5. Once again, this reverse line movement indicates that the Falcons are receiving early sharp money.
As we mentioned in the Oakland-Denver game, underdogs have historically offered value in division games. The Falcons also fit three of this season's betting systems including our analysis from Week 5, Week 8 and Week 10.
The Falcons have lost five consecutive games, which makes them the ideal buy-low candidate. In turn, the Panthers haven't lost this season, which makes them the perfect sell-high candidate. Combine that information with our sharp money indicators and betting system matches, and the Falcons look like an excellent value this week.
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
