How The GS Warriors Historic Streak Impacted Vegas

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How Warriors' historic streak impacted Vegas

David Purdum, ESPN Staff Writer


The Golden State money train had been running in Las Vegas for weeks, and by the time the Warriors arrived in Milwaukee on Saturday, some deep pockets were on board.

The MGM sportsbook took multiple $40,000 money-line bets on the heavily favored Warriors to beat the Bucks at odds of -400 and higher.
"They bet to win $10,000," MGM assistant manager Jeff Stoneback said.

Milwaukee, a 9-point underdog, won 108-95, ending the Warriors' record 24-game win streak and handing the MGM its largest win on an NBA game this season. In 69 games in the 2015-16 season, the Bucks were only the sixth underdog of 9-points-or-more to win this season, according to BetLabs onSportsInsights.com.

For weeks, with each Warriors win, more and more bettors began to back the Dubs. Five-figure money-line bets -- mostly out of the norm for a regular-season NBA game in December -- started showing up at the betting window more frequently. William Hill took a $10,000 bet on the Warriors to beat Bucks at -500 on Saturday. There's a story out of Reno about a bettor playing Golden State on the money line over and over at the end of the streak at $3,000 a pop.

"There are guys that come in and lay money line [on the Warriors] every day," said Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports at CG Technology.
Westgate SuperBook basketball oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said action has been consistently lopsided on the Warriors money line, especially when they're on the road.

"At home, sometimes they are a large enough favorite the bettors stay away," Sherman said in an email Sunday. "They did see decent money line support yesterday at Milwaukee, resulting in our best NBA game of the season so far."

Twice in November -- against the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets -- the Warriors were -5,000 favorites or more on the money line, meaning you'd need to put up $50 to win $1 on Golden State. And yet, people have been willing to do it.

However, with such lofty odds, the sportsbooks have been able to mitigate the damage. One sportsbook manager joked that the first thing he did when he arrived for his shift each afternoon was make sure the price on the Warriors was on the highest end of the market.

If you bet $100 on the Warriors money line in all 25 of their games so far, you'd only be up around $500.

The Warriors haven't just been winning; they've also been covering, going 16-8-1 against the spread to this point. That's good for the second-best ATS record in the NBA, behind only the Orlando Magic. Golden State's success against the spread has made it difficult to drum up action on the other side for some shops.

"Unless we get a numbers player [sophisticated bettor] or they're playing a really popular team, we get nothing on the other side," Hugh Citron, oddsmaker at the Stratosphere, said.

Betting on the Warriors had become an event at the Stratosphere. When Golden State played at Boston on Friday, Citron said he had double the normal crowd glued to the game. It was the same scene Saturday night against Milwaukee.

"Even when the Warriors were down 12 with a minute left, people didn't think they were going to lose," Citron said. "I could see them in the book, still holding onto their tickets."

In late November, the SuperBook opened a prop bet the Warriors winning more than 72 games. "Yes" opened at +500, with "No" a big favorite at -700. With the Warriors 24-1, "No" is now -175. Limits on the prop are $1,000. Sherman said they've taken twice as many limit bets on "Yes" as "No."

Golden State is the top NBA by money bet to win the 2015-16 NBA title.
 

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