[h=1]Week 15 early NFL line moves[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (i.e. Week 16 lines will be posted this Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- Our look at the lines for Week 15 begins with two games that are not available.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook tries to put up openers for all NFL games scheduled for the following week at 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, regardless of whether a team is playing Sunday or Monday or has injuries to key players. Even if a starting quarterback is hurt, the Westgate will often go with its best guess.
That said, the Westgate oddsmakers are obviously stumped as to where to set lines for the Houston-Indianapolis and Kansas City-Baltimore games, both of which have playoff implications for the teams (minus the Ravens).
The Texans-Colts game is for the AFC South lead, and Matt Hasselbeck left the loss at Jacksonville with a rib injury. This game was off the board last week as well and probably would have been off the board anyway because it's the game in which Andrew Luck is hoping to return.
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The Chiefs are in the AFC wild-card hunt, and the Westgate's advance line for the game at Baltimore had Kansas City minus-5. The Chiefs won their seventh straight game Sunday (but their six-game ATS streak was snapped, as they won 10-3 as 12-point home favorites), while the Ravens were blown out 35-6 by the Seahawks with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback in place of Matt Schaub. I would expect the Chiefs to be favored by at least a touchdown.
The other big injury from Sunday was Cincinnati's Andy Dalton breaking a thumb in a 33-20 loss to Pittsburgh. He is expected to miss Sunday's game at San Francisco. Knowing AJ McCarron will get the start, the Westgate reopened the Bengals minus-3.5 after the advance line last week was minus-7.
Here's a rundown of the rest of the games that have seen adjustments from last week's advance lines or have moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (Thursday): St. Louis was a 1-point favorite on the advance line. Then, even though the Rams beat the Lions 21-14 on Sunday and the Buccaneers lost 24-17 to the Saints, the Westgate changed the favorite to Tampa Bay minus-2. Several other Vegas books and some offshore made it pick 'em, with others at Tampa minus-1, so the first move at the Westgate was down to minus-1.5.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: This line was Minnesota minus-4 last week, and the Westgate reopened it there after both teams lost this weekend, but early money came in on the Vikings, and it was bet up to minus-4.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars: This was pick 'em last week, but after the Jaguars routed the Colts 51-16 and the Falcons lost their sixth straight game (and failed to cover their ninth in a row), the Westgate made it Jacksonville minus-3.5. Overall, we're seeing a mix of 3 and 3.5.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: The Patriots hadn't played yet, and this line went from minus-10 to minus-12.5 due to the Titans' 30-8 loss to the Jets. We'll see where the rest of the books open this on Monday morning.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: Carolina was minus-3.5 last week, but the line was inflated to minus-5 after the Panthers routed the Falcons 38-0 on Sunday to improve to 13-0. Most books will wait to open on this game until after seeing how the Giants do on Monday Night Football.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh was minus-4.5 for this marquee matchup, and it was bumped up to minus-6 after the Steelers beat the Bengals 33-20 and the Broncos lost 15-12 to the Raiders.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans was minus-1.5 last week, but after beating the Buccaneers 24-17 and seeing the Lions lose 21-14 to the Rams, this was bumped to minus-2.5 (-120). Early bettors obviously didn't think that was enough of an adjustment and bet it to minus-3 Sunday afternoon.
The rest of the lines for the 16-game Week 15 card have been relatively stable. We'll see how these lines get further bet into shape after the rest of the sports books put up their openers Monday morning.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 15 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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</tbody></aside>Note: Home teams in caps. The first number is the Westgate's advance line from Tuesday, the second number is the Sunday afternoon "opener," and the third number is the move as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game. An asterisk(*) denotes a team that was an underdog but is now a favorite.
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (i.e. Week 16 lines will be posted this Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- Our look at the lines for Week 15 begins with two games that are not available.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook tries to put up openers for all NFL games scheduled for the following week at 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, regardless of whether a team is playing Sunday or Monday or has injuries to key players. Even if a starting quarterback is hurt, the Westgate will often go with its best guess.
That said, the Westgate oddsmakers are obviously stumped as to where to set lines for the Houston-Indianapolis and Kansas City-Baltimore games, both of which have playoff implications for the teams (minus the Ravens).
The Texans-Colts game is for the AFC South lead, and Matt Hasselbeck left the loss at Jacksonville with a rib injury. This game was off the board last week as well and probably would have been off the board anyway because it's the game in which Andrew Luck is hoping to return.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Chiefs are in the AFC wild-card hunt, and the Westgate's advance line for the game at Baltimore had Kansas City minus-5. The Chiefs won their seventh straight game Sunday (but their six-game ATS streak was snapped, as they won 10-3 as 12-point home favorites), while the Ravens were blown out 35-6 by the Seahawks with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback in place of Matt Schaub. I would expect the Chiefs to be favored by at least a touchdown.
The other big injury from Sunday was Cincinnati's Andy Dalton breaking a thumb in a 33-20 loss to Pittsburgh. He is expected to miss Sunday's game at San Francisco. Knowing AJ McCarron will get the start, the Westgate reopened the Bengals minus-3.5 after the advance line last week was minus-7.
Here's a rundown of the rest of the games that have seen adjustments from last week's advance lines or have moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (Thursday): St. Louis was a 1-point favorite on the advance line. Then, even though the Rams beat the Lions 21-14 on Sunday and the Buccaneers lost 24-17 to the Saints, the Westgate changed the favorite to Tampa Bay minus-2. Several other Vegas books and some offshore made it pick 'em, with others at Tampa minus-1, so the first move at the Westgate was down to minus-1.5.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: This line was Minnesota minus-4 last week, and the Westgate reopened it there after both teams lost this weekend, but early money came in on the Vikings, and it was bet up to minus-4.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars: This was pick 'em last week, but after the Jaguars routed the Colts 51-16 and the Falcons lost their sixth straight game (and failed to cover their ninth in a row), the Westgate made it Jacksonville minus-3.5. Overall, we're seeing a mix of 3 and 3.5.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: The Patriots hadn't played yet, and this line went from minus-10 to minus-12.5 due to the Titans' 30-8 loss to the Jets. We'll see where the rest of the books open this on Monday morning.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: Carolina was minus-3.5 last week, but the line was inflated to minus-5 after the Panthers routed the Falcons 38-0 on Sunday to improve to 13-0. Most books will wait to open on this game until after seeing how the Giants do on Monday Night Football.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh was minus-4.5 for this marquee matchup, and it was bumped up to minus-6 after the Steelers beat the Bengals 33-20 and the Broncos lost 15-12 to the Raiders.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans was minus-1.5 last week, but after beating the Buccaneers 24-17 and seeing the Lions lose 21-14 to the Rams, this was bumped to minus-2.5 (-120). Early bettors obviously didn't think that was enough of an adjustment and bet it to minus-3 Sunday afternoon.
The rest of the lines for the 16-game Week 15 card have been relatively stable. We'll see how these lines get further bet into shape after the rest of the sports books put up their openers Monday morning.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 15 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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| FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | ADVANCE | OPENER | MOVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Buccaneers | RAMS | +1 | -2 | -1.5 |
| Jets | COWBOYS | -3 (even) | -3 | |
| VIKINGS | Bears | -4 | -4 | -4.5 |
| JAGUARS | Falcons | PK | -3.5 | -3.5 (even) |
| COLTS | Texans | OFF | OFF | |
| Chiefs | RAVENS | -5 | OFF | |
| *REDSKINS | Bills | +1 | -1 | |
| PATRIOTS | Titans | -10 | -12.5 | |
| Cardinals | EAGLES | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| Panthers | GIANTS | -3.5 | -5 | |
| SEAHAWKS | Browns | -13.5 | -14 | |
| Packers | RAIDERS | -3 (-120) | -2.5 | -3 (even) |
| CHARGERS | Dolphins | -1 | PK | |
| STEELERS | Broncos | -4.5 | -6 | |
| Bengals | 49ERS | -7 | -3.5 | |
| SAINTS | Lions | -1.5 | -2.5 (-120) | -3 |
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