[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in CFB bowls[/h]
David SolarESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
While bowl season is an entertaining time of year, it's not without drawbacks. Long layoffs, silly corporate sponsorships, countless coaching changes and -- here's the kicker, excuse the pun -- three teams with losing records will play in a bowl game.
With an epic slate of 40 games, many football fans might feel beaten down and overwhelmed. Often we see basic concepts of money management thrown out the window, as bettors feel obligated to place a wager on every game. If they lose their first few bets, panic sinks in, and at their peril, they make recklessly large bets in an attempt to make up ground.
These casual, reactionary bettors are referred to as squares -- weekend warriors who place wagers based on hunches and intuition, rather than data and analysis. Oddsmakers know these bettors will overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, and sportsbooks will shade their lines to encourage action on the other side.
Our long-held principles challenge this basic human psychology: Bet against the public and take unpopular viewpoints to consistently get an extra point or half-point. If this doesn't seem significant, consider that it can increase your long-term win rate by 1-3 percent.
In our weekly NFL column, we have explained a range of contrarian betting strategies, which include betting against the public, taking teams after a blowout loss, fading "elite" teams and backing teams that frequently fail to cover the spread. These tactics may seem counterintuitive, but they have allowed us to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
While there are many distinctions between NFL and college football betting, there are also important similarities, especially during bowl season. The value of many contrarian strategies is derived from the number of bets placed on each game. Oddsmakers need to take enough action on one side to warrant a line move for contrarian betting to be an effective strategy.
Since 2005, college football underdogs receiving less than a third of public bets have gone just 1,940-2,049 against the spread (48.5 percent) in regular-season games. That compares unfavorably to NFL teams fitting those criteria that have gone 653-623 against the spread (51.2 percent). For that reason, our regular-season college football betting systems typically focus on major conference teams, as they receive the highest volume of bets.
Once we reach bowl season, there are far fewer games and almost all of them include prominent schools. This increased handle on every game leads to more profitable returns for our contrarian betting strategies.
One simple strategy is betting against ranked teams, as bettors are prone to overvalue the AP Top 25. Watch the media focus on a specific team or conference, while oddsmakers engage in significant quantitative analysis to create power rankings and betting lines. Square bettors almost always pound a ranked team against an unranked opponent. Our research shows this has been a losing proposition.
Using our Bet Labs software, we found that during bowl season, unranked teams have posted a 41-28 against-the-spread (59.4 percent) record against teams that appear in the AP Top 25. Oddsmakers and voters frequently agree upon the Top 10, which helps explain why this edge has been particularly prevalent when the opponent is ranked between 11 and 25.
We also discovered that betting against the public was a superior strategy during bowl season as opposed to the regular season. Underdogs have gone 226-213 ATS (51.5 percent) in bowl games, and that record improves to 72-46 against the spread (61.0 percent) when they're receiving less than a third of public bets.
Armed with the knowledge that betting against the public and fading ranked teams were both advantageous during bowl season, we developed a new betting system with a 70.2 percent win rate and four current game matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">College Football Bowl Season</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody>
</aside>[h=2]Why does this work?[/h]As we mentioned earlier, square bettors often overreact, placing bets based on instinct. Their propensity to hammer favorites and ranked teams means oddsmakers can accurately anticipate this inevitable influx of public money.
Most sportsbooks react by shading their lines to force these bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. This shading creates added value for bettors willing to go against the grain and take the underdogs in these games.
Additionally, the value created from betting against the public directly correlates with the number of bets placed on each game. With fewer games on the schedule, nearly every matchup will take significant action, particularly if the game involves at least one ranked team.
Our NFL contrarian betting system matches have won at nearly a 60 percent clip this season, and we anticipate building on that success with four picks for bowl season.
[h=2]Bowl season system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday evening.
BYU Cougars (+2.5) vs. Utah Utes - Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 19)
The Cougars opened as 2.5-point underdogs and, according to the public betting trends at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks, have received just 15 percent of spread bets. Despite this lopsided public betting, the line remains unchanged. This indicates that oddsmakers are receiving enough large bets from sharp bettors to balance the numerous small bets from square bettors. In other words, this is the perfect example of "Pros vs. Joes."
In addition to fitting this system, BYU fits the featured system from last season's ultimate bowl betting guide which focused on underdogs with low totals.
There have been several sharp money indicators at market-setting offshore sportsbooks that also point toward value on the Cougars. Since "3" is a key number for football bettors, we would strongly suggest shopping for the best line before placing your bet. Even if you can't get the hook, we love the value on BYU plus-2.5.
Toledo Rockets (+1) vs. Temple Owls - Marmot Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 22)
The Owls opened as 1.5-point favorites and have received 77 percent of early spread bets. However, the line has dropped from Temple minus-1.5 to minus-1. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that sharp money has been taking Toledo.
Temple barely cracks the Top 25, but square bettors are more than happy to take a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
We have also found that teams with bowl experience have historically performed well against green schools. Last season Toledo defeated Arkansas State in the GoDaddy Bowl, while Temple missed the postseason entirely. For that reason, among many others, Toledo plus-1 is our pick.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7) vs. LSU Tigers - AdvoCare V1000 Texas Bowl (Dec. 29)
In our first game involving major conference teams, the Tigers opened as 5-point favorites and have received 74 percent of spread bets. This high level of public support has moved the line from minus-5 to minus-7.
Since there have been no steam moves triggered on this game, we can assert that public money is solely responsible for this 2-point line move. That's fantastic news for opportunistic contrarian bettors.
LSU is still dealing with the fallout from Les Miles' awkward return, and it will be interesting to see whether the team comes out looking sluggish after dealing with this mini-drama. Playing in Houston you can safely expect a strong showing from the Red Raider faithful, which should give Texas Tech an effective home field advantage. Kliff Kingsbury may remind fans of Ryan Gosling but, as we found out in a recent episode of Saturday Night Live, the Texas Tech coach is much cooler under pressure than his actor doppelganger.
Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair, but we like the Red Raiders to keep it close and cover the seven-point spread
Florida Gators (+4.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines - Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)
With two of the nation's top defenses facing off, the over/under for the Citrus Bowl opened at 40.5 -- easily the lowest of any bowl game. That's highly beneficial for the Gators, since underdogs have offered tremendous value in low-scoring games.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Wolverines opened as 4-point favorites, and they have received 71 percent of spread bets. This has caused the line to move from Michigan minus-4 to minus-4.5, but once again there have been no steam moves triggered, which means that public money has caused this half-point move.
Although it may not seem significant, "4" is actually the fifth-most common margin of victory, which makes it an unexpected key number.
Florida fits numerous betting systems including the aforementioned system from last season's betting guide. It's also interesting to note that while Jim Harbaugh gets all the attention, Jim McElwain actually has the superior record against the spread.
In this matchup between marquee programs, we are more than happy to grab the points and take Florida plus-4.5. These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
David SolarESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
While bowl season is an entertaining time of year, it's not without drawbacks. Long layoffs, silly corporate sponsorships, countless coaching changes and -- here's the kicker, excuse the pun -- three teams with losing records will play in a bowl game.
With an epic slate of 40 games, many football fans might feel beaten down and overwhelmed. Often we see basic concepts of money management thrown out the window, as bettors feel obligated to place a wager on every game. If they lose their first few bets, panic sinks in, and at their peril, they make recklessly large bets in an attempt to make up ground.
These casual, reactionary bettors are referred to as squares -- weekend warriors who place wagers based on hunches and intuition, rather than data and analysis. Oddsmakers know these bettors will overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, and sportsbooks will shade their lines to encourage action on the other side.
Our long-held principles challenge this basic human psychology: Bet against the public and take unpopular viewpoints to consistently get an extra point or half-point. If this doesn't seem significant, consider that it can increase your long-term win rate by 1-3 percent.
In our weekly NFL column, we have explained a range of contrarian betting strategies, which include betting against the public, taking teams after a blowout loss, fading "elite" teams and backing teams that frequently fail to cover the spread. These tactics may seem counterintuitive, but they have allowed us to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
While there are many distinctions between NFL and college football betting, there are also important similarities, especially during bowl season. The value of many contrarian strategies is derived from the number of bets placed on each game. Oddsmakers need to take enough action on one side to warrant a line move for contrarian betting to be an effective strategy.
Since 2005, college football underdogs receiving less than a third of public bets have gone just 1,940-2,049 against the spread (48.5 percent) in regular-season games. That compares unfavorably to NFL teams fitting those criteria that have gone 653-623 against the spread (51.2 percent). For that reason, our regular-season college football betting systems typically focus on major conference teams, as they receive the highest volume of bets.
Once we reach bowl season, there are far fewer games and almost all of them include prominent schools. This increased handle on every game leads to more profitable returns for our contrarian betting strategies.
One simple strategy is betting against ranked teams, as bettors are prone to overvalue the AP Top 25. Watch the media focus on a specific team or conference, while oddsmakers engage in significant quantitative analysis to create power rankings and betting lines. Square bettors almost always pound a ranked team against an unranked opponent. Our research shows this has been a losing proposition.
Using our Bet Labs software, we found that during bowl season, unranked teams have posted a 41-28 against-the-spread (59.4 percent) record against teams that appear in the AP Top 25. Oddsmakers and voters frequently agree upon the Top 10, which helps explain why this edge has been particularly prevalent when the opponent is ranked between 11 and 25.
We also discovered that betting against the public was a superior strategy during bowl season as opposed to the regular season. Underdogs have gone 226-213 ATS (51.5 percent) in bowl games, and that record improves to 72-46 against the spread (61.0 percent) when they're receiving less than a third of public bets.
Armed with the knowledge that betting against the public and fading ranked teams were both advantageous during bowl season, we developed a new betting system with a 70.2 percent win rate and four current game matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Underdogs | 226-211 (51.7%) | +2.70 | +0.6% |
| Underdog, <33% of spread bets | 72-46 (61.0%) | +22.16 | +18.8% |
| Underdog, <33% of spread bets, Ranked Opponent | 33-14 (70.2%) | +17.20 | +36.6% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">College Football Bowl Season</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>
</aside>[h=2]Why does this work?[/h]As we mentioned earlier, square bettors often overreact, placing bets based on instinct. Their propensity to hammer favorites and ranked teams means oddsmakers can accurately anticipate this inevitable influx of public money.
Most sportsbooks react by shading their lines to force these bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. This shading creates added value for bettors willing to go against the grain and take the underdogs in these games.
Additionally, the value created from betting against the public directly correlates with the number of bets placed on each game. With fewer games on the schedule, nearly every matchup will take significant action, particularly if the game involves at least one ranked team.
Our NFL contrarian betting system matches have won at nearly a 60 percent clip this season, and we anticipate building on that success with four picks for bowl season.
[h=2]Bowl season system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday evening.
The Cougars opened as 2.5-point underdogs and, according to the public betting trends at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks, have received just 15 percent of spread bets. Despite this lopsided public betting, the line remains unchanged. This indicates that oddsmakers are receiving enough large bets from sharp bettors to balance the numerous small bets from square bettors. In other words, this is the perfect example of "Pros vs. Joes."
In addition to fitting this system, BYU fits the featured system from last season's ultimate bowl betting guide which focused on underdogs with low totals.
There have been several sharp money indicators at market-setting offshore sportsbooks that also point toward value on the Cougars. Since "3" is a key number for football bettors, we would strongly suggest shopping for the best line before placing your bet. Even if you can't get the hook, we love the value on BYU plus-2.5.
The Owls opened as 1.5-point favorites and have received 77 percent of early spread bets. However, the line has dropped from Temple minus-1.5 to minus-1. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that sharp money has been taking Toledo.
Temple barely cracks the Top 25, but square bettors are more than happy to take a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
We have also found that teams with bowl experience have historically performed well against green schools. Last season Toledo defeated Arkansas State in the GoDaddy Bowl, while Temple missed the postseason entirely. For that reason, among many others, Toledo plus-1 is our pick.
In our first game involving major conference teams, the Tigers opened as 5-point favorites and have received 74 percent of spread bets. This high level of public support has moved the line from minus-5 to minus-7.
Since there have been no steam moves triggered on this game, we can assert that public money is solely responsible for this 2-point line move. That's fantastic news for opportunistic contrarian bettors.
LSU is still dealing with the fallout from Les Miles' awkward return, and it will be interesting to see whether the team comes out looking sluggish after dealing with this mini-drama. Playing in Houston you can safely expect a strong showing from the Red Raider faithful, which should give Texas Tech an effective home field advantage. Kliff Kingsbury may remind fans of Ryan Gosling but, as we found out in a recent episode of Saturday Night Live, the Texas Tech coach is much cooler under pressure than his actor doppelganger.
Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair, but we like the Red Raiders to keep it close and cover the seven-point spread
With two of the nation's top defenses facing off, the over/under for the Citrus Bowl opened at 40.5 -- easily the lowest of any bowl game. That's highly beneficial for the Gators, since underdogs have offered tremendous value in low-scoring games.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Wolverines opened as 4-point favorites, and they have received 71 percent of spread bets. This has caused the line to move from Michigan minus-4 to minus-4.5, but once again there have been no steam moves triggered, which means that public money has caused this half-point move.
Although it may not seem significant, "4" is actually the fifth-most common margin of victory, which makes it an unexpected key number.
Florida fits numerous betting systems including the aforementioned system from last season's betting guide. It's also interesting to note that while Jim Harbaugh gets all the attention, Jim McElwain actually has the superior record against the spread.
In this matchup between marquee programs, we are more than happy to grab the points and take Florida plus-4.5. These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
