How To Bet Thursday Nights Rams/Bucs NFL Game

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How to bet Tampa Bay-St. Louis
NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
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Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off with a Thursday night showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley, Geoff Kulesa and Erin Rynning are here to break down the finer points of this game, and John Parolin has a few prop bets you should keep your eye on, too. You'll find it all packed into ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday morning.

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[h=2]Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams[/h]Spread: Tampa Bay -2; now St. Louis -2.5
Total: Opened 41; now 41

Dave Tuley: If this game was on Sunday afternoon, I'm sure a lot of people would pass in regards to betting or even watching this matchup, but it certainly has our attention as a stand-alone game on Thursday night. Even though both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs (remember: the Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 1 and would have the tiebreaker if they both finish 8-8), it's not going to happen. Neither is going to catch the Seahawks or Vikings (or the Packers, if the Vikings win the NFC North).


I like how this fits into taking the over when both teams are mostly playing out the string. The offenses will look to put on a show in prime time, and the defenses aren't likely to put up much of a fight. The Rams' offense perked up last week withTodd Gurley running (140 yards, two touchdowns vs. Detroit), and that helps open up their offense. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston continues to improve ahead of schedule, and he's getting help from the ground game with Doug Martin (81 yards, one TD last week). We are bucking some trends with this pick, as the Rams have gone under in their past four games and the Buccaneers have three straight unders of their own, but those factors have led to this over/under being set very low at 41. That helps our play.
As far as the point spread goes, I lean toward Tampa Bay. It clearly has been the more consistent team this season, ranking 11th in both total offense and defense; St. Louis is 31st in offense and 19th in defense. While I believe the Bucs are the right side here, there are better plays on Sunday, and I'll probably just parlay the Bucs to the over and leave it at that.
The pick: Tampa Bay +2.5/over 41 parlay

Wunderdog: St. Louis is at home here, but the Rams are really struggling. They do have some offense, however, with Gurley busting out for 140 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries last week. Gurley, who has eight rushing TDs in his past eight games, is second in NFL history to Eric Dickerson for the most games of at least 125 rushing yards by a rookie with five (Dickerson had seven). Tampa Bay is in town with a talented running back of its own in Martin, who ranks second in the league with 1,214 rushing yards and third in the NFC with 1,413 yards from scrimmage. They have a nice QB advantage in this game, too, and the Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS following a spread loss. They are motivated, as they haven't qualified for the postseason since 2007, but they're two games off the pace in the NFC wild-card race.
The pick: Tampa Bay +2.5

Erin Rynning: Last week, the betting markets slammed in money against the Rams, while dually pushing money on the Buccaneers. Of course, with the tough-to-predict NFL, the Rams won as a 3-point home underdog and the Buccaneers lost as a 6-point favorite against the New Orleans Saints. The most likely key to victory in this tilt will be the winner in the trenches.
Both teams want to rely on the run while taking pressure off the quarterback, and both clubs are also sound on their defensive front but face question marks on the offensive line. This game projects as a vanilla, low-scoring contest. In fact, special teams could very well decide the outcome in a short week, with the Rams holding the clear edge in that department. I'll lean toward the Rams and the under on Thursday night.
Lean: St. Louis -2.5/under 41

[h=2]Prop bets[/h]83.5 rushing yards by Doug Martin (O/U -110)
Martin has averaged 6.6 yards per rush in the past four games, topping 80 yards in all four and rushing for 95 or more in three of the past four. Only four players have reached 84 rushing yards against the Rams this season, but any fantasy football owner will tell you that finding a bellcow at running back is increasingly difficult. Time shares are all the rage in the backfield, and that has put a dent in rushing yard totals (and fantasy points).
There are still a few teams out there who don't split playing time so evenly. Martin has accounted for 62.5 percent of his team's rushes this season, the fourth-highest percentage in the league. He trails only Adrian Peterson (who put up 125 yards on the Rams in Week 9), Latavius Murray and Frank Gore. The Rams' rushing defense is not an elite unit -- it has allowed 1,507 yards this season, which averages out to 116 per game (tied for 21st in the league).
Affording Martin 62.5 percent of the Rams' average alone gets him to 72.5 yards, and that doesn't take into account Tampa Bay's above-average status (second in yards per rush, fourth in yards per game), or Martin's recent red-hot play.
The play: Over

16.5 completions by Case Keenum (O/U -110)
In two starts for the Rams this season, Keenum has 12 completions against the Lions (tied for 14th in completions allowed) and 14 completions against the Ravens (16th in that category). Two defenses that rank around the average held Keenum "under," but the Buccaneers have allowed the fifth-most completions in the league. Tampa Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to connect on 323 passes this season, about 25 per game -- a figure high enough to give you pause, considering how low the 16.5 completions figure is.
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</article>To a certain extent, that's life in the current NFC South, isn't it? The Buccaneers have already seen bothDrew Brees and Matt Ryan twice (a combined 122 completions in four games, or 30.5 per game between those two veteran completion machines). Take away the games against those two and the Buccaneers are allowing only 22 completions per game, but the completion percentage is still far too high in a strictly completions prop.
The Buccaneers against quarterbacks not named Ryan or Brees are still allowing more than two-thirds of passes to be completed (67 percent). At that percentage, all Keenum needs to do to hit 17 completions is have approximately 25 attempts. He has been comically bad, but against the Buccaneers, he'll complete enough short throws to get over the top here.

The play: Over
 

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