Analyzing Early Week 16 Early NFL Line Moves

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[h=1]Week 16 early NFL line move[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Editor's note: This column appears each Sunday night to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 17 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- The sports books here had a rough day, but they've been having a good season overall and aren't about to close shop, so the NFL Week 16 lines went up per usual on Sunday afternoon.
There are a lot of intriguing games next weekend, though not every contest was posted right away. The Westgate Las Vegas had two matchups off the board on Sunday night in the Houston-Tennessee and Indianapolis-Miami games, both of which are important in the AFC South race. The Texans, who beat the Colts 16-10 to take over first place in the division, lost T.J. Yates and are hoping Brian Hoyer will be able to return (besides, Marcus Mariota was knocked out the Titans' game on Sunday). The Colts are hoping to get Andrew Luck back at quarterback, so oddsmakers are also waiting to post that line.
In other games with AFC playoff implications, the New England Patriots are minus-3 (-120) at the New York Jets as they continue their march toward home-field advantage while the Jets are trying to hold onto a wild-card spot. On ESPN's Monday Night Football, the Denver Broncos are 3.5-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals (it was Denver minus-4.5 on the advance line at the Westgate last week, but lowered after the Broncos lost to the Steelers and the Bengals -- with A.J. McCarron filling in for Andy Dalton -- beat the 49ers) as both teams are fighting for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Redskins with first place in the NFC East on the line. Another key game is the Arizona Cardinals, who are vying for the NFC's No. 2 seed behind the Carolina Panthers and a first-round bye, hosting the Green Bay Packers, who are attempting to hold off theMinnesota Vikings to win the NFC North. The Westgate made the Cardinals a 4-point favorite on Sunday afternoon after the advance line was 4.5 last week. Both of these could be impacted by the result of the Eagles-Cardinals game that is going on while this story was being written.
Here's a rundown of the rest of the Week 16 games that have seen adjustments from last week's advance lines or have moved in early betting on Sunday afternoon/early evening.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: This was Minnesota minus-3 last week but re-opened at minus-4 after the Vikings blew out the Bears and the Giants lost to the Panthers (though they covered after falling behind 35-7).
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills: This was Buffalo minus-5 last week, and even though both teams lost this weekend (with Dallas pushing against the closing line in a 19-16 loss to the Jets as a 3-point home underdog), the Westgate re-opened it at Buffalo minus-5.5. Offshore giants CRIS and the Greek went even higher at 6.5, and the market moved toward the middle at Buffalo minus-6 by kickoff of the Sunday night game.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions: Detroit was minus-6.5 on the advance line last week, and after the 49ers lost 24-14 to Cincinnati, it was moved 2 full points to minus-8.5 at the Westgate and a few other books. Most books have this off the board with the Lions playing Monday night.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: This was Seattle minus-14 on the advance line and re-opened at minus-14, but the Wynn Las Vegas went with 13 while other books split the difference at 13.5, so early bettors at the Westgate took St. Louis plus-14 and bet it down to 13.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: This was off the board last week because of Baltimore's QB carousel. The Westgate opened it at Pittsburgh minus-9.5 on Sunday, but the William Hill & CG Technology books here in Vegas and several offshore books went with 10, and that's where the line settled by kickoff of the Sunday night game.
The rest of the lines for the full 16-game Week 16 card have been relatively stable. We'll see how these lines get further bet into shape after the rest of the sports books put up their openers on Monday morning.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 16 openers[/h]Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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FAVORITEUNDERDOGADVANCEOPENERMOVE
RAIDERSChargers-6-6
EAGLESRedskins-4-4
VIKINGSGiants-3-4
BUCCANEERSBears-3 (EVEN)-2.5-3 (EVEN)
PanthersFALCONS-6.5-6.5
BILLSCowboys-5-5.5-6
SAINTSJaguars-4-3.5
LIONS49ers-6.5-8.5
CHIEFSBrowns-11.5-12.5
ColtsDOLPHINSOFFOFF
PatriotsJETS-3 (-120)-3 (-120)
TexansTITANSOFFOFF
CARDINALSPackers-4.5-4
SEAHAWKSRams-14-14-13.5
SteelersRAVENSOFF-9.5-10
BRONCOSBengals-4.5-3.5

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</aside>Note: Home teams in CAPS. The first number is the Westgate's advance line from last Tuesday; the second number is the Sunday afternoon "opener"; the third number is the move as of the kickoff of the Sunday night game.
 

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