[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 16[/h]David SolarESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Every week in this space, we examine historical betting trends from our extensive database and develop profitable systems by going against the grain and taking unpopular viewpoints. Square bettors are prone to overreacting to recent events, and we are consistently able to find value by capitalizing on public perception. Some of our betting systems can be exceedingly complicated and contain numerous filters. This week, we wanted to keep things simple by looking at three of the most basic and lucrative contrarian strategies.
Our research shows that underdogs have offered a slight edge for bettors, but large underdogs have offered considerable value. Since 2003, underdogs have covered the spread at a 50.2 percent rate during the regular season. That number increases to 50.8 percent when we examine 'dogs of at least 3 points, 51.8 percent when we examine 'dogs of at least 7 points and 53.4 percent when we examine 'dogs of at least 10 points.
Most sportsbooks charge a -110 vig, which means that bettors need to win 52.38 percent of their bets in order to turn a profit. That means that over the past 12 seasons, bettors would have yielded positive returns simply by betting every single double-digit underdog blindly.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We have also preached the importance of buying on bad news and selling on good news. Uninformed square bettors overemphasize recent results, and oddsmakers can accurately anticipate how these bettors will react the following week.
By shading their opening lines, oddsmakers force squares to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. As we have explained countless times, these shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors who assume an opposing position and take the underdog.
Since square bettors regularly overreact to the previous week's games, one of the easiest and most consistently profitable ways to find value is by taking teams off a loss -- particularly if it was a big loss.
In one of our most basic contrarian betting systems, we found that double-digit underdogs have gone 102-76 against the spread (57.3 percent) when they lost their previous game by at least 10 points. When we augment this system by adding a betting-against-the- public filter, our win rate improves to 60.4 percent.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 16 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>There is a reason that fans and analysts haphazardly throw around the term "any given Sunday," and it's not just because they're fans of Al Pacino. We have seen two-touchdown underdogs pull off improbable upsets. We have seen teams overcome 28-point deficits and emerge victorious. We have seen last-second Hail Marys and unbelievable backdoor covers -- some of which we've been on the losing side of.
It's human nature to root for winners and scoring, which explains why the betting public consistently pounds favorites and overs. The media overhype these high-scoring winners, which further inflates this tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and look to exploit sports bettors' inclinations by shading favorites and overs. These square bettors also react excessively to outcomes from the previous week, so taking large underdogs after a big loss creates the perfect storm for opportunistic contrarian bettors.
Last week, our picks went 0-2 against the spread, which drops our record to 23-18 ATS (56.1 percent) on the season. We'll try to get back on track with two Week 16 picks.
[h=2]Week 16 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Cleveland Browns (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Browns opened as 12.5-point underdogs and have received just 27 percent of spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks. Despite this one-sided public betting, the line has yet to move.
As a double-digit underdog coming off a 17-point loss, we already loved the value on Cleveland, but there are several additional indicators that validate our pick.
For starters, the Browns fit the criteria for several previously discussed betting systems, including our analyses from Week 3, Week 8, Week 10 and Week 15.
We have also found that large underdogs provide tremendous value when they are familiar with their opponent. Since 2003, underdogs of at least 10 points have gone 176-135 (56.6 percent) in conference games but only 49-61 ATS (44.5 percent) in nonconference games.
Another fascinating angle involves teams that are large underdogs in back-to-back games. Since 2003, teams have gone 42-21 ATS (66.7 percent) when they are double-digit 'dogs for a second consecutive game. That bodes well for the Browns, who closed as 14.5-point underdogs last week against the Seahawks.
The Chiefs have won eight consecutive games even though they feature one of the league's worst passing attacks. This is an ideal opportunity to sell high on Kansas City and buy low on Cleveland, so we'll gladly grab the points and take the Browns +12.5.
Baltimore Ravens (+10) vs.Pittsburgh Steelers
It's still unknown who will line up under center for the Ravens, but it doesn't appear that public bettors care whether Jimmy Clausen, Matt Schaub or Ryan Mallett will start at quarterback.
The Steelers opened as 9.5-point road favorites and have received 80 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has pushed the line from Pittsburgh -9.5 to -10, meaning that bettors can essentially pick up a free half-point based on public perception.
That half-point line move is noteworthy for several reasons. Although home-field advantage has been historically overvalued, double-digit home 'dogs have gone 38-25 ATS (60.3 percent) since 2003. That's a significantly higher win rate than double-digit road 'dogs.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Ravens also fit several previously published betting systems, including our analyses from Week 6 and Week 9. Baltimore not only fits our frequently discussed 80-20 betting rule but also our updated 80-20 system, which has gone 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent).
The Steelers are arguably the hottest team in the league and are coming off a huge win over the Broncos. On the flip side, the Ravens have lost three straight games and are vying for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft. Once again, this creates the perfect opportunity to sell high on Pittsburgh and buy low on Baltimore.
This may not be the prettiest play, but we believe that the Ravens will keep things close against their bitter division rival.
ESPN INSIDER
Every week in this space, we examine historical betting trends from our extensive database and develop profitable systems by going against the grain and taking unpopular viewpoints. Square bettors are prone to overreacting to recent events, and we are consistently able to find value by capitalizing on public perception. Some of our betting systems can be exceedingly complicated and contain numerous filters. This week, we wanted to keep things simple by looking at three of the most basic and lucrative contrarian strategies.
Our research shows that underdogs have offered a slight edge for bettors, but large underdogs have offered considerable value. Since 2003, underdogs have covered the spread at a 50.2 percent rate during the regular season. That number increases to 50.8 percent when we examine 'dogs of at least 3 points, 51.8 percent when we examine 'dogs of at least 7 points and 53.4 percent when we examine 'dogs of at least 10 points.
Most sportsbooks charge a -110 vig, which means that bettors need to win 52.38 percent of their bets in order to turn a profit. That means that over the past 12 seasons, bettors would have yielded positive returns simply by betting every single double-digit underdog blindly.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We have also preached the importance of buying on bad news and selling on good news. Uninformed square bettors overemphasize recent results, and oddsmakers can accurately anticipate how these bettors will react the following week.
By shading their opening lines, oddsmakers force squares to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. As we have explained countless times, these shaded lines create additional value for contrarian bettors who assume an opposing position and take the underdog.
Since square bettors regularly overreact to the previous week's games, one of the easiest and most consistently profitable ways to find value is by taking teams off a loss -- particularly if it was a big loss.
In one of our most basic contrarian betting systems, we found that double-digit underdogs have gone 102-76 against the spread (57.3 percent) when they lost their previous game by at least 10 points. When we augment this system by adding a betting-against-the- public filter, our win rate improves to 60.4 percent.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dog of 10+ points | 225-196 (53.4%) | +15.59 | +3.7% |
| Dog of 10+, Lost Pvs Gm by 10+ pts | 102-76 (57.3%) | +19.34 | +10.9% |
| Dog of 10+, Lost Pvs Gm by 10+, <40% spread bets | 87-57 (60.4%) | +24.29 | +16.9% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 16 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>There is a reason that fans and analysts haphazardly throw around the term "any given Sunday," and it's not just because they're fans of Al Pacino. We have seen two-touchdown underdogs pull off improbable upsets. We have seen teams overcome 28-point deficits and emerge victorious. We have seen last-second Hail Marys and unbelievable backdoor covers -- some of which we've been on the losing side of.
It's human nature to root for winners and scoring, which explains why the betting public consistently pounds favorites and overs. The media overhype these high-scoring winners, which further inflates this tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and look to exploit sports bettors' inclinations by shading favorites and overs. These square bettors also react excessively to outcomes from the previous week, so taking large underdogs after a big loss creates the perfect storm for opportunistic contrarian bettors.
Last week, our picks went 0-2 against the spread, which drops our record to 23-18 ATS (56.1 percent) on the season. We'll try to get back on track with two Week 16 picks.
[h=2]Week 16 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Cleveland Browns (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Browns opened as 12.5-point underdogs and have received just 27 percent of spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks. Despite this one-sided public betting, the line has yet to move.
As a double-digit underdog coming off a 17-point loss, we already loved the value on Cleveland, but there are several additional indicators that validate our pick.
For starters, the Browns fit the criteria for several previously discussed betting systems, including our analyses from Week 3, Week 8, Week 10 and Week 15.
We have also found that large underdogs provide tremendous value when they are familiar with their opponent. Since 2003, underdogs of at least 10 points have gone 176-135 (56.6 percent) in conference games but only 49-61 ATS (44.5 percent) in nonconference games.
Another fascinating angle involves teams that are large underdogs in back-to-back games. Since 2003, teams have gone 42-21 ATS (66.7 percent) when they are double-digit 'dogs for a second consecutive game. That bodes well for the Browns, who closed as 14.5-point underdogs last week against the Seahawks.
The Chiefs have won eight consecutive games even though they feature one of the league's worst passing attacks. This is an ideal opportunity to sell high on Kansas City and buy low on Cleveland, so we'll gladly grab the points and take the Browns +12.5.
Baltimore Ravens (+10) vs.Pittsburgh Steelers
It's still unknown who will line up under center for the Ravens, but it doesn't appear that public bettors care whether Jimmy Clausen, Matt Schaub or Ryan Mallett will start at quarterback.
The Steelers opened as 9.5-point road favorites and have received 80 percent of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has pushed the line from Pittsburgh -9.5 to -10, meaning that bettors can essentially pick up a free half-point based on public perception.
That half-point line move is noteworthy for several reasons. Although home-field advantage has been historically overvalued, double-digit home 'dogs have gone 38-25 ATS (60.3 percent) since 2003. That's a significantly higher win rate than double-digit road 'dogs.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The Ravens also fit several previously published betting systems, including our analyses from Week 6 and Week 9. Baltimore not only fits our frequently discussed 80-20 betting rule but also our updated 80-20 system, which has gone 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent).
The Steelers are arguably the hottest team in the league and are coming off a huge win over the Broncos. On the flip side, the Ravens have lost three straight games and are vying for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft. Once again, this creates the perfect opportunity to sell high on Pittsburgh and buy low on Baltimore.
This may not be the prettiest play, but we believe that the Ravens will keep things close against their bitter division rival.
